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2025 Week 5 · Sun, Oct 5, 2025 · FirstEnergy Stadium

Minnesota VikingsWinner

21

Cleveland Browns

17

MIN -3.5 ✓O 35.5 ✓

Minnesota Vikings 21–17. Biggest swing: Q4 1:35, CLE +18% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3CLE ↑MIN ↓
Q4 · 1:35MIN 14 — CLE 17MIN ball · 1st & 10CLE 61%

(1:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass deep right to 18-J.Jefferson to CLE 27 for 21 yards (21-D.Ward).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 1:35CLE +18% win prob(1:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass deep right to 18-J.Jefferson to CLE 27 for 21 yards (21-D.Ward).
  2. Q4 · 14:05MIN +17% win prob(14:05) 36-Z.Scott right guard to CLE 45 for -3 yards (57-I.McGuire, 93-S.Harris). FUMBLES (57-I.McGuire), RECOVERED by CLE-43-M.Diabate at CLE 45. PENALTY on CLE-93-S.Harris, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at CLE 45.
  3. Q4 · 11:47CLE +17% win prob(11:47) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass deep middle to 18-J.Jefferson to CLE 37 for 38 yards (33-R.Hickman).
  4. Q4 · 9:46MIN +17% win prob(9:46) 16-W.Reichard 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 6:54CLE Touchdown

    (6:54) 8-D.Gabriel pass short left to 44-H.Fannin for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: MIN 0 — CLE 7
  2. Q1 · 2:37MIN Touchdown

    (2:37) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 31-C.Akers. 31-C.Akers pass short right to 84-J.Oliver for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: MIN 7 — CLE 7
  3. Q2 · 0:13CLE Field goal

    (:13) 25-A.Szmyt 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

    Score after this play: MIN 7 — CLE 10
  4. Q3 · 11:15MIN Touchdown

    (11:15) (Shotgun) 27-J.Mason up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: MIN 14 — CLE 10
  5. Q3 · 3:09CLE Touchdown

    (3:09) (Shotgun) 8-D.Gabriel pass short middle to 85-D.Njoku for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: MIN 14 — CLE 17
  6. Q4 · 0:30MIN Touchdown

    (:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short right to 3-J.Addison for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: MIN 21 — CLE 17

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricVikingsBrowns
Offensive plays6066
Total yards350 (edge)322
Yards per play5.8 (edge)4.9
Expected points added / play0.04 (edge)-0.01
Success rate48% (edge)39%
Dropback rate68%53%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.25 (edge)-0.07
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.430.06 (edge)
Third downs3/9 (edge)3/15
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)77
First downs gained on snaps18 (edge)17
Sacks taken32 (edge)
Turnovers20 (edge)

Vikings won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.04 expected points added per play vs -0.01.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · MIN

Carson WentzQB

25/34, 236 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

8.7 expected points added · +6.9% completion over expected

Passing · CLE

Dillon GabrielQB

19/33, 190 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

-2.3 expected points added · -6.8% completion over expected

Rushing · CLE

Quinshon JudkinsRB

23 att, 110 yds, 0 TD

1.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · MIN

Jordan MasonRB

13 att, 52 yds, 1 TD

-5.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · MIN

Justin JeffersonWR

7/11 for 123 yds, 0 TD

32% of team targets · 8.6 expected points added

Receiving · CLE

David NjokuTE

6/9 for 67 yds, 1 TD

28% of team targets · 5.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1CLECLE 406171:59Punt
2MINMIN 86362:44Fumble
3CLEMIN 478473:28Touchdown +7
4MINMIN 1810924:19Touchdown +7
5CLECLE 348273:02Punt
6MINMIN 217243:30Punt
7CLECLE 11482:21Punt
8MINMIN 14492:23Punt
9CLECLE 26582:09Punt
10MINMIN 11481:35Punt
11CLECLE 3414582:21Field goal +3
12MINMIN 21200:09End of half
13MINMIN 2910593:49Touchdown +7
14CLECLE 3115748:06Touchdown +7
15MINMIN 265-52:09Punt
16CLECLE 1491:51Punt
17MINCLE 421-30:04Fumble
18CLECLE 30441:37Punt
19MINMIN 257422:43Missed field goal
20CLECLE 416272:48Punt
21MINMIN 20783:26Punt
22CLECLE 414-10:22Punt
23MINMIN 2011802:40Touchdown +7
24CLECLE 294440:25End of game

6 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: Vikings gained 92 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Minnesota Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Carson Wentz25/342361038.7
Cam Akers1/1321003.3

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Jordan Mason13524.01-5.7
Zavier Scott5183.60-3.6
Jalen Nailor11515.001.1
Carson Wentz3134.30-1.6
Max Brosmer1-1-1.000.0

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Justin Jefferson711123032%8.6
Jordan Addison5641118%4.1
T.J. Hockenson6638018%2.1
Josh Oliver233519%2.6
Jalen Nailor3427012%1.7
Jordan Mason344012%-2.3

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Eric Wilson450.000
Theo Jackson170.000
Dallas Turner340.000
Levi Drake Rodriguez150.000
Byron Murphy410.001
Javon Hargrave140.000
Harrison Smith140.000
Isaiah Rodgers320.000
Josh Metellus400.001
Ivan Pace Jr.311.000

Cleveland Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Dillon Gabriel19/33190202-2.3

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Quinshon Judkins231104.801.2
Jerome Ford5183.601.6
Malachi Corley11111.000.7
Dillon Gabriel252.50-1.2
Dylan Sampson1-4-4.00-0.8

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
David Njoku6967128%5.1
Isaiah Bond2729022%-4.2
Jamari Thrash112203%-0.4
Jerome Ford222006%1.0
Quinshon Judkins121806%1.3
Jerry Jeudy2515016%-2.8
Harold Fannin Jr.4413113%1.1
Dylan Sampson12606%-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Carson Schwesinger2100.000
Ronnie Hickman Jr.640.000
Greg Newsome II420.001
Devin Bush420.000
Myles Harden410.000
Grant Delpit130.001
Myles Garrett300.000
Alex Wright121.000
Denzel Ward210.001
Maliek Collins202.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
MIN -3.5
Closing total
35.5
MIN moneyline
-198
CLE moneyline
+164

Vikings closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 4.

Total closed 35.5; the game landed 38 — over by 2.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
FirstEnergy Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
61°F, wind 14 mph
Referee
Scott Novak
Rest
MIN 7 days · CLE 7 days
Coaches
Kevin O'Connell vs Kevin Stefanski