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polling · 1800s tick · as of 7:02 AM ET · 16 to play
Minnesota Vikings 21 at Cleveland Browns 17. Final.
Vikings -3.5 ✓O 35.5 ✓
The verdict · 2025 Week 5
Minnesota Vikings 21, Browns 17 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 1:35, 1st and 10, on Justin Jefferson — 17.9 win-probability points to the Vikings on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 1:35 · 1st and 10
Justin Jefferson
Vikings
(1:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass deep right to 18-J.Jefferson to CLE 27 for 21 yards (21-D.Ward).
Vikings closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 4.
Minnesota Vikings 21–17. Biggest swing: Q4 1:35, Vikings +17.9% win probability on one snap.
17.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Zavier ScottBrownsQ4 14:05(14:05) 36-Z.Scott right guard to CLE 45 for -3 yards (57-I.McGuire, 93-S.Harris). FUMBLES (57-I.McGuire), RECOVERED by CLE-43-M.Diabate at CLE 45. PENALTY on CLE-93-S.Harris, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at CLE 45.
17.2pts
Justin JeffersonVikingsQ4 11:47(11:47) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass deep middle to 18-J.Jefferson to CLE 37 for 38 yards (33-R.Hickman).
17.2pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Browns owned this one and still lost it — +0.06 expected points per carry, against Vikings at -0.43 expected points per carry.
Brownsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Browns owned this one and still lost it — no giveaways, against Vikings at 2 giveaways.
Brownsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Vikings won this one — 48% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Browns at 39% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Vikings won this one — +0.25 expected points per dropback, against Browns at -0.07 expected points per dropback.
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 13.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 21 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Browns.
MarketModelmodel higher on Brownshigher on Vikings168 of 182 plays carry both curves
(1:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass deep right to 18-J.Jefferson to CLE 27 for 21 yards (21-D.Ward).
Swing −17.9 for BrownsExpected points −1.16 for BrownsModel and market agree here.play 167
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 1:35CLE +18% win prob(1:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass deep right to 18-J.Jefferson to CLE 27 for 21 yards (21-D.Ward).
4th · 14:05MIN +17% win prob(14:05) 36-Z.Scott right guard to CLE 45 for -3 yards (57-I.McGuire, 93-S.Harris). FUMBLES (57-I.McGuire), RECOVERED by CLE-43-M.Diabate at CLE 45. PENALTY on CLE-93-S.Harris, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at CLE 45.
4th · 11:47CLE +17% win prob(11:47) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass deep middle to 18-J.Jefferson to CLE 37 for 38 yards (33-R.Hickman).
4th · 9:46MIN +17% win prob(9:46) 16-W.Reichard 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.
4th · 0:30CLE +17% win prob(:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short right to 3-J.Addison for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 0:59CLE +17% win prob(:59) 11-C.Wentz pass short left to 3-J.Addison to CLE 17 for 4 yards (26-M.Harden).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Jordan Addison's 12-yard touchdown catch with 0:30 left in the 4th put Minnesota Vikings ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Vikings ahead 5–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Browns, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.43 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.04Vikings: +0.04 expected points added per play
−0.01Browns: −0.01 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.25Vikings: +0.25 expected points added per play
−0.07Browns: −0.07 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.43Vikings: −0.43 expected points added per play
+0.06Browns: +0.06 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Vikings ran 60 snaps at a 68% dropback rate against Browns’s 66 at 53%. Red-zone trips: Vikings 3, Browns 3.
NoteVikings won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.04 expected points added per play vs -0.01.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
CLE's sack or hit rate, 7.3%, is past their previous low of 12.1% in week 2 — the lowest of their 5 charted games through week 5.
41 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.5 points.
high through week 5Against their seasonOver Expected
MIN's pass rate over expected, +4.7 pts, is past their previous high of +2.0 pts in week 2 — the highest of their 5 charted games through week 5.
60 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.3 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 12 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −10.9 vs their 19.5%, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (−1.42× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Browns7.3%
leaned — stayed blocked · −11.8 vs their 19.1%, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (−1.39× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
NoteMIN's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 8.6%, 10.9 points below their season mean of 19.5% and 1.4 times their own 7.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Minnesota Vikings
48 dressed · 7 inactive
67Justin SkuleT · Every snap100%65 snaps
76Will FriesG · Every snap100%65 snaps
60Joe HuberG · Every snap100%65 snaps
64Blake BrandelG · Every snap100%65 snaps
18Justin JeffersonWR · Every snap100%65 snaps
11Carson WentzQB · Full-time98%64 snaps
87T.J. HockensonTE · Full-time85%55 snaps
3Jordan AddisonWR · Heavy rotation75%49 snaps
27Jordan MasonRB · Heavy rotation66%43 snaps
1Jalen NailorWR · Heavy rotation65%42 snaps
71Christian DarrisawT · Heavy rotation63%41 snaps
84Josh OliverTE · Rotational45%29 snaps
73Walter RouseT · Rotational37%24 snaps
36Zavier ScottRB · Situational22%14 snaps
19Adam ThielenWR · Situational22%14 snaps
30C.J. HamFB · Situational18%12 snaps
81Nick VannettTE · Situational2%1 snap
12Max BrosmerQB · Situational2%1 snap
31Cam AkersRB · Situational2%1 snap
Inactive · 7
Michael JurgensCElijah WilliamsDTDonovan JacksonGAndrew Van GinkelOLBJ.J. McCarthyQBBrian O'NeillTBen YurosekTE
Cleveland Browns
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
55Ethan PocicC · Every snap100%70 snaps
77Wyatt TellerG · Every snap100%70 snaps
78Jack ConklinT · Every snap100%70 snaps
75Joel BitonioG · Every snap100%70 snaps
8Dillon GabrielQB · Every snap100%70 snaps
85David NjokuTE · Full-time96%67 snaps
72KT LevestonT · Full-time90%63 snaps
3Jerry JeudyWR · Full-time90%63 snaps
44Harold Fannin Jr.TE · Heavy rotation79%55 snaps
16Isaiah BondWR · Heavy rotation57%40 snaps
10Quinshon JudkinsRB · Heavy rotation56%39 snaps
80Jamari ThrashWR · Rotational40%28 snaps
34Jerome FordRB · Rotational37%26 snaps
83Malachi CorleyWR · Situational17%12 snaps
86Blake WhiteheartTE · Situational10%7 snaps
22Dylan SampsonRB · Situational10%7 snaps
68Cam RobinsonT · Situational10%7 snaps
98Adin HuntingtonDT · Situational4%3 snaps
74Teven JenkinsG · Situational3%2 snaps
84Gage LarvadainWR · Situational1%1 snap
Inactive · 7
Mike Hall Jr.DTDamontae KazeeFSZak ZinterGShedeur SandersQBRaheim SandersRBThayer Munford Jr.TCornelius LucasT
6 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Browns attack right, the Vikings attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Vikings←Browns→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
C.Wentz pass+33% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short right to 3-J.Addison for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 0:30 · Vikings · 2nd & 5 at CLE 12 · gained 12 · +3.36 EP · +32.5% win probability
166 snaps placed · 16 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 182 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 166 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 177. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIN moving 82 yards from the MIN 18 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CLE attacks right, MIN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
182 of 182 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
182
EPA per play
+0.02
Success rate
41%
Yards
671
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR41+0.0351%
Vikings1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR37+0.2373%
Vikings1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR18-0.2644%
Browns1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR12-0.1575%
Browns1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR6-0.510%
Vikings2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5-0.2960%
Browns2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Browns1 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR2——
Browns0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
182 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
182 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter41 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Browns 40 to the Browns 47
Fumble lost6 plays, from the Vikings 8 to the Vikings 42
Vikings0Browns6
Vikings0Browns7
Touchdown8 plays, from the Vikings 47 to the Vikings 1
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a trick play, nobody in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap, from outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
Vikings6Browns7
Vikings7Browns7
Touchdown12 plays, from the Vikings 18 to the Browns 32
The period ended8 plays, from the Browns 34 to the Browns 44
2nd quarter52 plays
Punt3 plays, from the Browns 39 to the Browns 46
Punt8 plays, from the Vikings 21 to the Browns 48
Punt4 plays, from the Browns 11 to the Browns 19
Punt5 plays, from the Vikings 14 to the Vikings 23
Punt5 plays, from the Browns 26 to the Browns 40
Punt4 plays, from the Vikings 11 to the Vikings 19
Vikings7Browns10
Field goal20 plays, from the Browns 34 to the Vikings 8
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter35 plays
Vikings13Browns10
Vikings14Browns10
Touchdown11 plays, from the Vikings 29 to the Browns 3
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runSlantCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Vikings14Browns16
Vikings14Browns17
Touchdown16 plays, from the Browns 31 to the Vikings 9
Punt5 plays
The period ended3 plays, from the Browns 1 to the Browns 2
4th quarter54 plays
Punt2 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Fumble lost1 play
Punt4 plays, from the Browns 30 to the Browns 36
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the receiver created it himself.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.1 seconds
No good7 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Browns 32
Punt7 plays, from the Browns 41 to the Vikings 42
Punt7 plays, from the Vikings 20 to the Vikings 36
Punt6 plays
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.0 seconds
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
Vikings20Browns17
Vikings21Browns17
Touchdown14 plays, from the Vikings 20 to the Browns 12
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the ball was not catchable.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linebackers and seven backsRoute runGoCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
The period ended6 plays, from the Browns 29 to the Vikings 49
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
