2025 Week 5 · Sun, Oct 5, 2025 · New Era Field

New England PatriotsWinner

Buffalo Bills

BUF -7.5 upsetU 49.5 ✓Bills closed -7.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

New England Patriots 23–20 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q2 0:01, NE +20% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 0:01NE 6 — BUF 3NE ball · 2nd & 1NE 60%

(:01) 36-A.Borregales 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 0:01NE +20% win prob(:01) 36-A.Borregales 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer.
Q4 · 0:20BUF +19% win prob(:20) 36-A.Borregales 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer.
Q3 · 2:58NE +18% win prob(2:58) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle intended for 10-K.Shakir INTERCEPTED by 25-M.Jones at NE 10. 25-M.Jones to NE 10 for no gain (10-K.Shakir).
Q4 · 1:25BUF +16% win prob(1:25) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep right to 9-K.Boutte to BUF 39 for 19 yards (24-C.Bishop) [50-G.Rousseau].

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 0:59NE Field goal
(:59) 36-A.Borregales 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer.
Score after this play: NE 3 — BUF 0
Q2 · 9:37BUF Field goal
(9:37) 15-M.Prater 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky.
Score after this play: NE 3 — BUF 3
Q2 · 0:01NE Field goal
(:01) 36-A.Borregales 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer.
Score after this play: NE 6 — BUF 3
Q3 · 9:24BUF Touchdown
(9:24) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 1-C.Samuel for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NE 6 — BUF 10
Q3 · 6:38NE Touchdown
(6:38) 38-R.Stevenson left guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on BUF-97-J.Bosa, Defensive Offside, declined. (kick good)
Score after this play: NE 13 — BUF 10
Q4 · 12:14NE Touchdown
(12:14) 38-R.Stevenson left end for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NE 20 — BUF 10
Q4 · 7:40BUF Touchdown
(7:40) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 0-K.Coleman for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NE 20 — BUF 17
Q4 · 2:21BUF Field goal
(2:21) 15-M.Prater 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky.
Score after this play: NE 20 — BUF 20
Q4 · 0:20NE Field goal
(:20) 36-A.Borregales 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer.
Score after this play: NE 23 — BUF 20

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Patriots	Bills
Offensive plays	56	61
Total yards	338	363 (edge)
Yards per play	6.0 (edge)	6.0
Expected points added / play	0.06 (edge)	0.04
Success rate	46%	51% (edge)
Dropback rate	64%	64%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.18	0.23 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.15 (edge)	-0.29
Third downs	3/9	5/9 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5	7 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	18	21 (edge)
Sacks taken	4	1 (edge)
Turnovers	1 (edge)	3

Bills outgained Patriots 363–338 but lost the turnover battle 3–1. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NE

Drake MayeQB

22/30, 273 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

9.7 expected points added · +13.8% completion over expected

Passing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

22/31, 253 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

10.6 expected points added · +5.9% completion over expected

Rushing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

9 att, 53 yds, 0 TD

-2.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · BUF

James CookRB

15 att, 49 yds, 0 TD

-0.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NE

Stefon DiggsWR

10/12 for 146 yds, 0 TD

43% of team targets · 10.1 expected points added

Receiving · BUF

Dalton KincaidTE

6/6 for 108 yds, 0 TD

20% of team targets · 10.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	NE	NE 30	6	16	2:42	Punt
2	BUF	BUF 14	6	46	3:57	Fumble
3	NE	BUF 47	1	7	0:10	Fumble
4	BUF	BUF 38	5	25	1:54	Punt
5	NE	NE 20	9	30	4:00	Punt
6	BUF	BUF 14	1	2	0:33	Fumble
7	NE	BUF 11	4	-1	0:48	Field goal +3
8	BUF	BUF 33	12	59	6:22	Field goal +3
9	NE	NE 28	7	20	3:10	Punt
10	BUF	BUF 10	6	27	4:02	Punt
11	NE	NE 30	11	63	2:22	Field goal +3
12	BUF	BUF 29	12	66	5:39	Touchdown +7
13	NE	NE 26	7	69	2:47	Touchdown +7
14	BUF	BUF 29	8	47	3:41	Interception
15	NE	NE 10	12	90	5:43	Touchdown +7
16	BUF	BUF 26	10	44	4:33	Touchdown +7
17	NE	NE 24	5	7	1:45	Punt
18	BUF	BUF 20	10	34	3:35	Field goal +3
19	NE	NE 29	8	37	2:02	Field goal +3
20	BUF	BUF 18	2	13	0:15	End of game

9 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Patriots gained 90 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

New England Patriots

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Drake Maye	22/30	273	0	0	4	9.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
TreVeyon Henderson	6	24	4.0	0	-1.1
Antonio Gibson	6	21	3.5	0	-0.8
Rhamondre Stevenson	7	14	2.0	2	-0.5
Drake Maye	3	12	4.0	0	1.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Stefon Diggs	10	12	146	43%	10.1
Hunter Henry	2	4	46	14%	1.5
Kayshon Boutte	3	3	43	11%	4.6
DeMario Douglas	2	3	17	11%	-0.1
Rhamondre Stevenson	2	2	13	7%	-4.7
Antonio Gibson	1	1	5	4%	-0.2
TreVeyon Henderson	2	3	3	11%	-1.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Robert Spillane	6	3	0.0	0	0
Christian Elliss	4	4	0.0	0	0
Jack Gibbens	3	3	0.0	0	0
Christian Gonzalez	2	4	0.0	0	1
Harold Landry III	4	1	0.0	0	0
Marcus Jones	3	2	0.0	1	2
Milton Williams	2	2	0.5	0	0
Carlton Davis III	3	1	0.0	0	0
Craig Woodson	3	1	0.0	0	0
Khyiris Tonga	1	2	0.0	0	0

Buffalo Bills

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Josh Allen	22/31	253	2	1	1	10.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Josh Allen	9	53	5.9	-2.5
James Cook	15	49	3.3	-0.6
Ty Johnson	2	10	5.0	0.1
Khalil Shakir	1	5	5.0	-0.1
Ray Davis	2	1	0.5	-0.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Dalton Kincaid	6	6	108	0	20%	10.2
Khalil Shakir	6	9	45	0	30%	-2.0
Josh Palmer	2	2	36	0	7%	1.8
Curtis Samuel	2	2	26	1	7%	2.9
Keon Coleman	4	7	23	1	23%	-4.5
Dawson Knox	2	2	15	0	7%	1.1
James Cook	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.7
Tyrell Shavers	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks
Greg Rousseau	5	1	1.0
Terrel Bernard	6	0	0.0
Matt Milano	3	3	0.0
Shaq Thompson	4	1	1.0
Tre'Davious White	4	0	0.0
Christian Benford	4	0	0.0
Taylor Rapp	2	1	0.0
Deone Walker	1	1	0.5
Reggie Gilliam	2	0	0.0
Taron Johnson	2	0	0.0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: BUF -7.5
Closing total: 49.5
NE moneyline: +310
BUF moneyline: -395

Bills closed -7.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 49.5; the game landed 43 — under by 6.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: New Era Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · a turf
Kickoff weather: 66°F, wind 3 mph
Referee: Shawn Hochuli
Rest: NE 7 days · BUF 7 days
Coaches: Mike Vrabel vs Sean McDermott

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.