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New England Patriots 23 at Buffalo Bills 20. Final.
Bills -7.5 upsetU 49.5 ✓
The verdict · 2025 Week 5
New England Patriots 23, Bills 20 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q2 0:01, 2nd and 1, on Andy Borregales — 19.8 win-probability points to the Bills on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 0:01 · 2nd and 1
Andy Borregales
Bills
(:01) 36-A.Borregales 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer.
Bills closed -7.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
New England Patriots 23–20 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q2 0:01, Bills +19.8% win probability on one snap.
19.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Marcus JonesPatriotsQ3 2:58(2:58) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle intended for 10-K.Shakir INTERCEPTED by 25-M.Jones at NE 10. 25-M.Jones to NE 10 for no gain (10-K.Shakir).
17.5pts
Andy BorregalesPatriotsQ4 0:20(:20) 36-A.Borregales 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer.
19.1pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Patriots won this one — 1 giveaway, against Bills at 3 giveaways.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Bills owned this one and still lost it — 5 of 9 on third down, against Patriots at 3 of 9 on third down.
Billsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Bills owned this one and still lost it — 7 chunk plays, against Patriots at 5 chunk plays.
Billsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Patriots won this one — -0.15 expected points per carry, against Bills at -0.29 expected points per carry.
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 11.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 24 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Patriots.
MarketModelmodel higher on Billshigher on Patriots159 of 172 plays carry both curves
(:01) 36-A.Borregales 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer.
Swing +19.8 for BillsExpected points −0.03 for BillsThe model had Patriots 5 points higher than the market did.play 84
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 0:01NE +20% win prob(:01) 36-A.Borregales 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer.
4th · 0:20BUF +19% win prob(:20) 36-A.Borregales 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer.
3rd · 2:58NE +18% win prob(2:58) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle intended for 10-K.Shakir INTERCEPTED by 25-M.Jones at NE 10. 25-M.Jones to NE 10 for no gain (10-K.Shakir).
4th · 1:25BUF +16% win prob(1:25) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep right to 9-K.Boutte to BUF 39 for 19 yards (24-C.Bishop) [50-G.Rousseau].
2nd · 0:10BUF +15% win prob(:10) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass incomplete short left to 8-S.Diggs. PENALTY on BUF-27-T.White, Defensive Pass Interference, 11 yards, enforced at BUF 12 - No Play.
2nd · 0:46BUF +12% win prob(:46) 10-D.Maye scrambles up the middle to BUF 7 for 9 yards (58-M.Milano; 57-A.Epenesa).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Andy Borregales's 52-yard field goal with 0:20 left in the 4th put New England Patriots ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st0:59Andy Borregales·30-yd field goal30-yard field goalholder B.Baringer · snap J.Ashby+33–0
2nd9:37Matt Prater·31-yd field goal31-yard field goalholder M.Wishnowsky · snap R.Ferguson+33–3
2nd0:01Andy Borregales·19-yd field goal19-yard field goalholder B.Baringer · snap J.Ashby+36–3
4th2:21Matt Prater·45-yd field goal45-yard field goalholder M.Wishnowsky · snap R.Ferguson+320–20
4th0:20Andy Borregales·52-yd field goal52-yard field goalholder B.Baringer · snap J.AshbyLead never changed again+323–20
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Patriotscategory by categoryBills
Patriots2–6Bills
338Total yards363
6.0Yards per play6.0
46%Success rate51%
33%Third-down rate56%
2Red-zone touchdowns2
5Explosive plays7
18First downs21
4Sacks taken1
1Turnovers3
The read
Bills ahead 6–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.06Patriots: +0.06 expected points added per play
+0.04Bills: +0.04 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.18Patriots: +0.18 expected points added per play
+0.23Bills: +0.23 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.15Patriots: −0.15 expected points added per play
−0.29Bills: −0.29 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Patriots ran 56 snaps at a 64% dropback rate against Bills’s 61 at 64%. Red-zone trips: Patriots 4, Bills 4.
NoteBills outgained Patriots 363-338 but lost the turnover battle 3-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
10 of 11 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -20 pts to 17 pts
inside their normal wobble · −5.3 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (−0.86× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Bills22.2%
inside their normal wobble · +5.8 vs their 16.4%, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (+0.69× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
NoteNE's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 41.7%, 16.8 points above their season mean of 24.9% and 1.9 times their own 8.9-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New England Patriots
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 1 never used
58Jared WilsonG · Every snap100%60 snaps
71Mike OnwenuG · Every snap100%60 snaps
65Garrett BradburyC · Every snap100%60 snaps
66Will CampbellT · Every snap100%60 snaps
76Morgan MosesT · Every snap100%60 snaps
10Drake MayeQB · Every snap100%60 snaps
85Hunter HenryTE · Full-time87%52 snaps
9Kayshon BoutteWR · Heavy rotation62%37 snaps
13Mack HollinsWR · Heavy rotation58%35 snaps
81Austin HooperTE · Heavy rotation57%34 snaps
38Rhamondre StevensonRB · Heavy rotation52%31 snaps
32TreVeyon HendersonRB · Heavy rotation50%30 snaps
8Stefon DiggsWR · Heavy rotation50%30 snaps
3DeMario DouglasWR · Rotational28%17 snaps
37Jack WestoverFB · Situational23%14 snaps
18Kyle WilliamsWR · Situational17%10 snaps
4Antonio GibsonRB · Situational15%9 snaps
59Vederian LoweT · Situational2%1 snap
Inactive · 5
Eric GregoryDTCaedan WallaceGK'Lavon ChaissonOLBTommy DeVitoQBEfton Chism IIIWR
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bills attack right, the Patriots attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Patriots←Bills→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Andy Borregales+29% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:20) 36-A.Borregales 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer.
Q4 0:20 · Patriots · 4th & 5 at BUF 34 · gained nothing · +1.31 EP · +29.2% win probability
157 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 172 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 157 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 167. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was NE moving 90 yards from the NE 10 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BUF attacks right, NE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
172 of 172 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
172
EPA per play
+0.04
Success rate
48%
Yards
701
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR41+0.1761%
Patriots1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR21+0.2476%
Patriots1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13+0.1138%
Patriots2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR12-0.1933%
Patriots2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR9+0.0289%
Bills1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7-0.0357%
Bills1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR6+0.2117%
Bills2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR5-1.390%
Bills2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Patriots2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Bills0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
172 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
172 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Patriots 30 to the Patriots 48
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one back, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Fumble lost7 plays, from the Bills 14 to the Patriots 47
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one back, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
Fumble lost1 play
Punt6 plays, from the Bills 38 to the Patriots 37
Punt9 plays, from the Patriots 20 to midfield
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
Fumble lost2 plays
Patriots3Bills0
Field goal4 plays
The period ended4 plays, from the Bills 33 to the Bills 36
2nd quarter45 plays
Patriots3Bills3
Field goal10 plays, from the Bills 31 to the Patriots 10
Punt8 plays, from the Patriots 28 to midfield
Punt8 plays, from the Bills 10 to the Bills 35
Patriots6Bills3
Field goal18 plays, from the Patriots 30 to the Bills 1
3rd quarter37 plays
Patriots6Bills9
Patriots6Bills10
Touchdown13 plays, from the Bills 29 to the Patriots 6
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, caught in traffic.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDeep outCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw5.6 seconds
Patriots12Bills10
Patriots13Bills10
Touchdown8 plays, from the Patriots 26 to the Bills 4
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runDragCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.9 seconds
Intercepted9 plays, from the Bills 29 to the Patriots 9
The period ended7 plays, from the Patriots 10 to the Patriots 30
4th quarter50 plays
Patriots19Bills10
Patriots20Bills10
Touchdown6 plays, from the Patriots 41 to the Bills 6
Patriots20Bills16
Patriots20Bills17
Touchdown11 plays, from the Bills 26 to the Patriots 2
Punt6 plays, from the Patriots 24 to the Patriots 33
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.4 seconds
Patriots20Bills20
Field goal11 plays, from the Bills 20 to the Patriots 27
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.4 seconds
Patriots23Bills20
Field goal12 plays, from the Patriots 29 to the Bills 34
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
