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polling · 1800s tick · as of 2:38 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2025 Week 5 · Sun, Oct 5, 2025 · Mercedes-Benz Superdome
FinalThe verdict · 2025 Week 5
It turned at Q4 15:00, 2nd and 7, on Cam Skattebo — 38.2 win-probability points to the Saints on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 15:00 · 2nd and 7
Cam Skattebo
Saints
(15:00) (Shotgun) 44-C.Skattebo up the middle to NO 13 for -1 yards (90-B.Bresee). FUMBLES (90-B.Bresee), RECOVERED by NO-31-J.Howden at NO 14. 31-J.Howden for 86 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
New Orleans Saints 26–14. Biggest swing: Q4 15:00, Saints +38.2% win probability on one snap.
38.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Giveaways
Saints won this one — no giveaways, against Giants at 5 giveaways.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Saints won this one — +0.29 expected points per dropback, against Giants at -0.28 expected points per dropback.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Giants owned this one and still lost it — 2 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Saints at 0 touchdowns on 4 trips.
Giantsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Every snap
Saints won this one — +0.05 expected points per snap, against Giants at -0.29 expected points per snap.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 1.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 6 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Saints.
(15:00) (Shotgun) 44-C.Skattebo up the middle to NO 13 for -1 yards (90-B.Bresee). FUMBLES (90-B.Bresee), RECOVERED by NO-31-J.Howden at NO 14. 31-J.Howden for 86 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Blake Grupe's 29-yard field goal with 0:03 left in the 2nd put New Orleans Saints ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
Blake Grupe29-yd field goal29-yard field goalholder K.Kroeger · snap Z.WoodLead never changed again+314–168 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Giantscategory by categorySaints
Saints ahead 5–4 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Giants, in red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Giants ran 69 snaps at a 65% dropback rate against Saints’s 61 at 52%. Red-zone trips: Giants 4, Saints 4.
Giants outgained Saints 335-333 but lost the turnover battle 5-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
NYG's sack or hit rate, 3.1%, is past their previous low of 10.8% in week 1 — the lowest of their 5 charted games through week 5.
32 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.3 points.
NYG's blitz rate sent, 15.6%, is past their previous low of 29.7% in week 1 — the lowest of their 5 charted games through week 5.
32 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.7 points.
NYG's fourth-and-short go rate, 75.0%, is past their previous high of 50.0% in week 2 — the highest of their 5 charted games through week 5.
4 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 12 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 19.0 points.
NYG's early-down pass rate turned over: 35.8% in week 4 against 63.0% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
54 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.8 points.
NO's sack or hit rate turned over: 25.0% in week 4 against 13.3% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
45 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.1 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -28 pts to 18 pts
Over Expected room →Giants-2.8 ptsright on their number · +2.2 vs their -5.0 pts, and they swing ±8.9 week to week (+0.25× that swing) · 69 snaps
Saints-8.8 ptsinside their normal wobble · −5.4 vs their -3.4 pts, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (−0.79× that swing) · 61 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 20% to 89%
Tendencies room →Giants63.0%inside their normal wobble · +11.8 vs their 51.2%, and they swing ±11.8 week to week (+1.00× that swing) · 54 early downs
Saints46.7%leaned — ran early · −12.2 vs their 58.8%, and they swing ±11.7 week to week (−1.04× that swing) · 45 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -1% to 45%
Tendencies room →Giants26.7%right on their number · +4.5 vs their 22.2%, and they swing ±9.1 week to week (+0.49× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
Saints15.6%right on their number · −3.2 vs their 18.8%, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (−0.45× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -6% to 104%
Fourth Down room →Giants75.0%leaned — went for it · +21.8 vs their 53.2%, and they swing ±19.0 week to week (+1.15× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
Saints—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 48.8%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 68%
Tendencies room →Giants15.6%leaned — sat back · −17.7 vs their 33.3%, and they swing ±11.7 week to week (−1.52× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
Saints33.3%right on their number · +0.7 vs their 32.6%, and they swing ±13.9 week to week (+0.05× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 37%
Tendencies room →Giants3.1%leaned — stayed blocked · −12.7 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (−1.53× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
Saints13.3%right on their number · −1.0 vs their 14.3%, and they swing ±5.1 week to week (−0.19× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
NYG's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 3.1%, 12.7 points below their season mean of 15.9% and 1.5 times their own 8.3-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New York Giants
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
New Orleans Saints
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · NO
21/31, 225 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
7.5 expected points added · -3.2% completion over expected
Passing · NYG
26/40, 202 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT
-12.6 expected points added · -1.7% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Rashid Shaheed banked 13.2 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashid ShaheedWR · Rotational Receiver | 21.4 | +13.2 | 67% | 91% | 16% | 35% | 4/5, 114 yd, 1 TD |
| Theo JohnsonTE · Rotational Receiver | 21.3 | +5.4 | 82% | 76% | 18% | 12% | 6/7, 33 yd, 2 TD |
| Spencer RattlerQB · Starter QB | 16.1 | −0.1 | 94% | — | 3% | 0% | 21/31, 225 yd, 1 TD · 6 car, 21 yd · 1/1, 0 yd |
| Jaxson DartQB · Starter QB | 15.6 | −6.6 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 26/40, 202 yd, 2 TD, 2 INT · 7 car, 55 yd |
| Cam SkatteboRB · Committee Back | 14.4 | −3.1 | 68% | 59% | 18% | 0% | 15 car, 59 yd · 6/7, 45 yd |
| Chris OlaveWR · Alpha Receiver | 12.9 | −4.0 | 73% | 94% | 35% | 35% | 7/11, 59 yd |
| Alvin KamaraRB · Committee Back | 9.5 | −4.1 | 56% | 66% | 19% | 8% | 8 car, 27 yd · 4/6, 28 yd |
| Daniel BellingerTE · Rotational Receiver | 9.2 | +0.9 | 52% | 37% | 10% | 9% | 4/4, 52 yd |
| Wan'Dale RobinsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 8.2 | −2.6 | 95% | 85% | 18% | 13% | 1 car, 2 yd · 5/7, 30 yd |
| Kendre MillerRB | 5.9 | −0.6 | 39% | 31% | 3% | 0% | 10 car, 41 yd · 1/1, 8 yd |
| Darius SlaytonWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.1 | −6.7 | 75% | 59% | 15% | 31% | 3/6, 31 yd |
| Juwan JohnsonTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.7 | −4.9 | 85% | 88% | 13% | 13% | 2/4, 17 yd |
| Devin SingletaryRB | 3.4 | −2.0 | 32% | 30% | 5% | 0% | 6 car, 20 yd · 1/2, 4 yd |
| Devaughn VeleWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.3 | +0.7 | 38% | 34% | 6% | 3% | 2/2, 13 yd |
| Beaux CollinsWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.7 | −2.0 | 38% | 43% | 8% | 4% | 1/3, 7 yd |
| Brandin CooksWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.5 | +0.1 | 45% | 56% | 3% | 2% | 1/1, 5 yd |
| Taysom HillQB | 0.7 | −4.5 | 14% | — | 0% | — | 1/1, 19 yd · 6 car, -1 yd |
| Velus Jones Jr.RB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| Jalin HyattWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −5.0 | 47% | 48% | 8% | 34% | 0/3, 0 yd |
| Gunner OlszewskiWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Saints attack right, the Giants attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(15:00) (Shotgun) 44-C.Skattebo up the middle to NO 13 for -1 yards (90-B.Bresee). FUMBLES (90-B.Bresee), RECOVERED by NO-31-J.Howden at NO 14. 31-J.Howden for 86 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 15:00 · Giants · 2nd & 7 at NO 12 · lost 2 · -11.86 EP · −34.5% win probability
168 snaps placed · 16 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 184 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 168 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 179. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
7 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was NO moving 87 yards from the NO 13 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NO attacks right, NYG attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
184 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
184 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Giants6
Saints0Giants7Saints0Giants7Saints3Giants13Saints3Giants14Saints3Giants14Saints6How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Giants14Saints12Giants14Saints13How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Giants14Saints16How the play was built
Play action, no huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, the ball was not catchable.
Giants14Saints19How the play was built
Two in the backfield, nobody in motion.
Giants14Saints25Giants14Saints26Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Giants at Saints, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxson Dart | 26/40 | 202 | 2 | 2 | 1 | −12.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Skattebo | 15 | 59 | 3.9 | 0 | −12.6 |
| Jaxson Dart | 7 | 55 | 7.9 | 0 | +6.5 |
| Devin Singletary | 6 | 20 | 3.3 | 0 | +1.6 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Bellinger | 4 | 4 | 52 | 0 | 10% | +5.4 |
| Cam Skattebo | 6 | 7 | 45 | 0 | 18% | +0.7 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bobby Okereke | 5 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Darius Muasau | 6 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Paulson Adebo | 6 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rakeem Nunez-Roches |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Rattler | 21/31 | 225 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +7.5 |
| Taysom Hill | 1/1 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1.8 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2025_05_NYG_NO
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Saints closed -1.5 and covered, winning by 12.
Total closed 41.5; the game landed 40 — under by 1.5.
Conditions and crew
| Wan'Dale Robinson | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | +2.6 |
| Theo Johnson | 6 | 7 | 33 | 2 | 18% | +1.9 |
| Darius Slayton | 3 | 6 | 31 | 0 | 15% | −6.9 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | 5 | 7 | 30 | 0 | 18% | −4.0 |
| Beaux Collins | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 8% | −6.1 |
| Devin Singletary | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 5% | −1.7 |
| Jalin Hyatt | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8% | −1.6 |
| 1 |
| 4 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Cordale Flott | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Tyler Nubin | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Abdul Carter | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brian Burns | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Andru Phillips | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Beaux Collins | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kendre Miller | 10 | 41 | 4.1 | 0 | −1.1 |
| Alvin Kamara | 8 | 27 | 3.4 | 0 | −1.8 |
| Spencer Rattler | 6 | 21 | 3.5 | 0 | +0.1 |
| Taysom Hill | 6 | -1 | -0.2 | 0 | −3.5 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashid Shaheed | 4 | 5 | 114 | 1 | 16% | +10.3 |
| Chris Olave | 7 | 11 | 59 | 0 | 35% | +0.3 |
| Alvin Kamara | 4 | 6 | 28 | 0 | 19% | −1.2 |
| Juwan Johnson | 2 | 4 | 17 | 0 | 13% | −0.6 |
| Devaughn Vele | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 6% | +1.5 |
| Kendre Miller | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 3% | +0.0 |
| Brandin Cooks | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 3% | +0.1 |
| Spencer Rattler | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −1.5 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Werner | 5 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Demario Davis | 7 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Alontae Taylor | 4 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonas Sanker | 6 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Carl Granderson | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Rumph II | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Howden | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kool-Aid McKinstry | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 2 | 3 |
| Nathan Shepherd | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cameron Jordan | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
