2025 Week 5 · Thu, Oct 2, 2025 · SoFi Stadium

San Francisco 49ersWinner

Los Angeles Rams

LA -8.5 upsetO 43.5 ✓DomeRams closed -8.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

San Francisco 49ers 26–23 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: OT 3:41, SF +80% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

OT · 3:41SF 26 — LA 23LA ball · 4th & 1LA 80%

(3:41) 23-K.Williams right tackle to SF 11 for no gain (36-M.Sigle; 2-D.Lenoir).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

OT · 3:41SF +80% win prob(3:41) 23-K.Williams right tackle to SF 11 for no gain (36-M.Sigle; 2-D.Lenoir).
Q4 · 1:07SF +57% win prob(1:07) 23-K.Williams up the middle to SF 2 for 1 yard (95-A.Collins). FUMBLES (95-A.Collins), RECOVERED by SF-95-A.Collins at SF 1.
OT · 5:55SF +39% win prob(5:55) 18-E.Pineiro 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead.
OT · 5:26LA +28% win prob(5:26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 5-T.Atwell ran ob at SF 20 for 38 yards.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 10:12SF Touchdown
(10:12) 10-M.Jones pass short middle to 88-J.Tonges for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: SF 7 — LA 0
Q2 · 13:47SF Touchdown
(13:47) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short left to 23-C.McCaffrey for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: SF 14 — LA 0
Q2 · 2:15LA Touchdown
(2:15) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 23-K.Williams for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: SF 14 — LA 7
Q2 · 0:02SF Field goal
(:02) 18-E.Pineiro 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead.
Score after this play: SF 17 — LA 7
Q3 · 6:36SF Field goal
(6:36) 18-E.Pineiro 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead.
Score after this play: SF 20 — LA 7
Q3 · 3:48LA Touchdown
(3:48) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 12-P.Nacua for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: SF 20 — LA 14
Q4 · 10:43LA Touchdown
(10:43) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 23-K.Williams for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: SF 20 — LA 20
Q4 · 2:57SF Field goal
(2:57) 18-E.Pineiro 59 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead.
Score after this play: SF 23 — LA 20
Q4 · 0:06LA Field goal
(:06) 16-J.Karty 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.
Score after this play: SF 23 — LA 23
OT · 5:55SF Field goal
(5:55) 18-E.Pineiro 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead.
Score after this play: SF 26 — LA 23

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	49ers	Rams
Offensive plays	82	63
Total yards	407	456 (edge)
Yards per play	5.0	7.2 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.12 (edge)	0.07
Success rate	51%	56% (edge)
Dropback rate	60%	75%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.29	0.33 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.11 (edge)	-0.67
Third downs	7/18	4/10 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	1	9 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	25 (edge)	23
Sacks taken	1	1
Turnovers	0 (edge)	2

Rams outgained 49ers 456–407 but lost the turnover battle 2–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · LA

Matthew StaffordQB

30/47, 389 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

15.1 expected points added · -3.3% completion over expected

Passing · SF

Mac JonesQB

33/49, 342 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

14.0 expected points added · -0.9% completion over expected

Rushing · LA

Kyren WilliamsRB

14 att, 65 yds, 0 TD

-5.6 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · SF

Christian McCaffreyRB

22 att, 57 yds, 0 TD

-6.8 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · SF

Kendrick BourneWR

10/11 for 142 yds, 0 TD

23% of team targets · 11.2 expected points added

Receiving · LA

Davante AdamsWR

5/11 for 88 yds, 0 TD

24% of team targets · 1.6 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	SF	SF 28	10	87	4:51	Touchdown +7
2	LA	LA 33	8	7	3:10	Punt
3	SF	SF 9	18	76	8:15	Touchdown +7
4	LA	LA 31	10	45	4:53	Fumble
5	SF	SF 30	6	22	2:40	Punt
6	LA	LA 15	9	85	4:02	Touchdown +7
7	SF	SF 33	13	48	2:09	Field goal +3
8	LA	LA 37	7	28	2:14	Missed field goal
9	SF	SF 43	12	49	6:13	Field goal +3
10	LA	LA 31	9	69	2:48	Touchdown +7
11	SF	SF 27	9	22	4:42	Punt
12	LA	LA 12	10	83	3:24	Touchdown +6
13	SF	SF 35	5	2	1:28	Punt
14	LA	LA 30	4	9	1:07	Punt
15	SF	SF 2	12	62	5:12	Field goal +3
16	LA	LA 35	6	54	1:47	Fumble
17	SF	SF 1	4	2	0:23	Punt
18	LA	50	7	20	0:40	Field goal +3
19	SF	—	1	0	0:02	Turnover on downs
20	SF	SF 40	9	37	4:09	Field goal +3
21	LA	LA 33	7	56	2:15	Turnover on downs

10 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: 49ers gained 87 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

San Francisco 49ers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Mac Jones	33/49	342	2	0	1	14.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Christian McCaffrey	22	57	2.6	-6.8
Brian Robinson	5	12	2.4	1.7
Mac Jones	4	5	1.3	3.0
Skyy Moore	1	1	1.0	-0.5
Kyle Juszczyk	1	-1	-1.0	-1.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Kendrick Bourne	10	11	142	0	23%	11.2
Christian McCaffrey	8	9	82	1	19%	5.9
Jake Tonges	7	11	41	1	23%	-0.2
Demarcus Robinson	3	7	39	0	15%	0.5
Kyle Juszczyk	3	4	21	0	8%	-1.1
Marquez Valdes-Scantling	1	3	9	0	6%	0.1
Luke Farrell	1	2	8	0	4%	0.2
Malik Turner	0	1	0	0	2%	-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Marques Sigle	7	6	0.0	1
Fred Warner	7	5	0.0	0
Upton Stout	2	6	0.0	0
Deommodore Lenoir	2	4	0.0	1
Dee Winters	3	1	0.0	0
Luke Gifford	2	2	0.0	0
Alfred Collins	2	0	0.0	0
Sam Okuayinonu	1	1	0.0	0
Bryce Huff	1	1	1.0	0
Renardo Green	1	1	0.0	1

Los Angeles Rams

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Matthew Stafford	30/47	389	3	0	1	15.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Kyren Williams	14	65	4.6	-5.6
Blake Corum	1	13	13.0	0.8
Matthew Stafford	1	0	0.0	-5.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Davante Adams	5	11	88	0	24%	1.6
Puka Nacua	10	12	85	1	26%	5.7
Tutu Atwell	2	4	72	0	9%	3.6
Kyren Williams	8	10	66	2	22%	3.0
Jordan Whittington	2	3	33	0	7%	1.4
Davis Allen	2	2	24	0	4%	1.7
Terrance Ferguson	1	1	21	0	2%	1.9
Blake Corum	0	2	0	0	4%	-1.0
Colby Parkinson	0	1	0	0	2%	-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Nate Landman	8	6	0.0	3
Quentin Lake	5	4	0.0	1
Poona Ford	3	4	0.0	0
Kam Curl	4	3	0.0	0
Byron Young	4	2	0.5	0
Tyler Davis	3	2	0.0	0
Cobie Durant	3	2	0.0	0
Omar Speights	3	2	0.0	0
Jared Verse	3	2	0.0	0
Kobie Turner	1	3	0.5	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: LA -8.5
Closing total: 43.5
SF moneyline: +340
LA moneyline: -440

Rams closed -8.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 43.5; the game landed 49 — over by 5.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: SoFi Stadium
Roof / surface: dome · matrixturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Bill Vinovich
Rest: SF 4 days · LA 4 days
Coaches: Kyle Shanahan vs Sean McVay

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.