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San Francisco 49ers 26 at Los Angeles Rams 23. Final.
Rams -8.5 upsetO 43.5 ✓
The verdict · 2025 Week 5
San Francisco 49ers 26, Rams 23 — on the last possessions.
It turned at OT 3:41, 4th and 1, on Kyren Williams — 79.9 win-probability points to the 49ers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · OT 3:41 · 4th and 1
Kyren Williams
49ers
(3:41) 23-K.Williams right tackle to SF 11 for no gain (36-M.Sigle; 2-D.Lenoir).
Dome
Rams closed -8.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
San Francisco 49ers 26–23 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: OT 3:41, 49ers +79.9% win probability on one snap.
79.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Kyren Williams49ersQ4 1:07(1:07) 23-K.Williams up the middle to SF 2 for 1 yard (95-A.Collins). FUMBLES (95-A.Collins), RECOVERED by SF-95-A.Collins at SF 1.
57.0pts
Eddy PineiroRamsOT 5:55(5:55) 18-E.Pineiro 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead.
39.4pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Rams owned this one and still lost it — 9 chunk plays, against 49ers at 1 chunk play.
Ramsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
49ers won this one — -0.11 expected points per carry, against Rams at -0.67 expected points per carry.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
49ers won this one — no giveaways, against Rams at 2 giveaways.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Rams owned this one and still lost it — 3 touchdowns on 5 trips, against 49ers at 2 touchdowns on 5 trips.
Ramsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 13.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 27 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about 49ers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Ramshigher on 49ers188 of 205 plays carry both curves
(3:41) 23-K.Williams right tackle to SF 11 for no gain (36-M.Sigle; 2-D.Lenoir).
Swing −79.9 for RamsExpected points −3.42 for RamsModel and market agree here.play 202
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
Overtime · 3:41SF +80% win prob(3:41) 23-K.Williams right tackle to SF 11 for no gain (36-M.Sigle; 2-D.Lenoir).
4th · 1:07SF +57% win prob(1:07) 23-K.Williams up the middle to SF 2 for 1 yard (95-A.Collins). FUMBLES (95-A.Collins), RECOVERED by SF-95-A.Collins at SF 1.
Overtime · 5:55SF +39% win prob(5:55) 18-E.Pineiro 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead.
Overtime · 5:26LA +28% win prob(5:26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 5-T.Atwell ran ob at SF 20 for 38 yards.
4th · 0:06LA +25% win prob(:06) 16-J.Karty 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.
4th · 2:57LA +21% win prob(2:57) 18-E.Pineiro 59 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead.
4th · 0:02
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Eddy Pineiro's 41-yard field goal with 5:55 left in overtime put San Francisco 49ers ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st10:12Jake Tonges·6-yd TD catch6-yard touchdown catchfrom Mac Jonesfrom Mac Jones+77–0
2nd13:47Christian McCaffrey·1-yd TD catch1-yard touchdown catchfrom Mac Jonesfrom Mac Jones+714–0
2nd2:15Kyren Williams·14-yd TD catch14-yard touchdown catchfrom Matthew Staffordfrom Matthew Stafford+714–7
2nd0:02Eddy Pineiro·37-yd field goal37-yard field goalholder T.Morstead · snap J.Weeks+317–7
3rd6:36Eddy Pineiro·20-yd field goal20-yard field goalholder T.Morstead · snap J.Weeks+320–7
3rd3:48Puka Nacua·1-yd TD catch1-yard touchdown catchfrom Matthew Staffordfrom Matthew Stafford+720–14
4th10:43Kyren Williams·8-yd TD catch8-yard touchdown catchfrom Matthew Staffordfrom Matthew Stafford · kick blocked by J.Elliott+620–20
4th2:57Eddy Pineiro·59-yd field goal59-yard field goalholder T.Morstead · snap J.Weeks+323–20
4th0:06Joshua Karty·48-yd field goal48-yard field goalholder E.Evans · snap A.Ward+323–23
Overtime5:55Eddy Pineiro·41-yd field goal41-yard field goalholder T.Morstead · snap J.WeeksLead never changed again+326–23
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
49erscategory by categoryRams
49ers2–6Rams
407Total yards456
5.0Yards per play7.2
51%Success rate56%
39%Third-down rate40%
2Red-zone touchdowns3
1Explosive plays9
25First downs23
1Sacks taken1
0Turnovers2
The read
Rams ahead 6–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to 49ers, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.67 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.1249ers: +0.12 expected points added per play
+0.07Rams: +0.07 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.2949ers: +0.29 expected points added per play
+0.33Rams: +0.33 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.1149ers: −0.11 expected points added per play
−0.67Rams: −0.67 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: 49ers ran 82 snaps at a 60% dropback rate against Rams’s 63 at 75%. Red-zone trips: 49ers 5, Rams 5.
NoteRams outgained 49ers 456-407 but lost the turnover battle 2-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
LA's early-down pass rate, 80.0%, was the highest of the 28 team-games charted in week 5 — 0.9 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of 60.4% in week 4.
3.1 times their own weekly swing above their number.
50 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.9 points.
high through week 5Against their seasonOver Expected
LA's pass rate over expected, +11.8 pts, is past their previous high of +8.0 pts in week 2 — the highest of their 5 charted games through week 5.
A 2.6-swing turn from week 4.
63 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.8 points.
SF's pass rate over expected turned over: −6.6 pts in week 4 against +5.3 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
82 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.9 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -16 pts to 18 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −5.3 vs their 9.5%, and they swing ±5.2 week to week (−1.02× that swing) · 47 dropbacks
Rams18.4%
right on their number · +0.5 vs their 17.9%, and they swing ±8.8 week to week (+0.05× that swing) · 49 dropbacks
NoteLA's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 80.0%, 24.5 points above their season mean of 55.5% and 3.1 times their own 7.9-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
San Francisco 49ers
48 dressed · 8 inactive · 1 never used
75Connor ColbyG · Every snap100%86 snaps
77Dominick PuniG · Every snap100%86 snaps
68Colton McKivitzT · Every snap100%86 snaps
64Jake BrendelC · Every snap100%86 snaps
71Trent WilliamsT · Every snap100%86 snaps
10Mac JonesQB · Every snap100%86 snaps
23Christian McCaffreyRB · Full-time88%76 snaps
5Demarcus RobinsonWR · Full-time85%73 snaps
84Kendrick BourneWR · Full-time81%70 snaps
88Jake TongesTE · Heavy rotation73%63 snaps
83Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR · Heavy rotation53%46 snaps
89Luke FarrellTE · Rotational44%38 snaps
44Kyle JuszczykFB · Rotational42%36 snaps
3Brian RobinsonRB · Situational14%12 snaps
9Skyy MooreWR · Situational9%8 snaps
81Malik TurnerWR · Situational7%6 snaps
82Brayden WillisTE · Situational2%2 snaps
Inactive · 8
Robert Beal Jr.DEJordan JeffersonDTNick MartinOLBBrock PurdyQBJordan JamesRBJordan WatkinsWRJauan JenningsWRRicky PearsallWR
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Rams attack right, the 49ers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
49ers←Rams→
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
K.Williams right−80% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(3:41) 23-K.Williams right tackle to SF 11 for no gain (36-M.Sigle; 2-D.Lenoir).
OT 3:41 · Rams · 4th & 1 at SF 11 · gained nothing · -3.42 EP · −79.9% win probability
186 snaps placed · 19 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 205 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 186 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 199. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was SF moving 91 yards from the SF 9 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LA attacks right, SF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
205 of 205 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
205
EPA per play
+0.09
Success rate
51%
Yards
863
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Rams1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR61+0.0875%
49ers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR38+0.0361%
49ers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR29+0.5362%
49ers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8-0.1150%
49ers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR5-1.0160%
49ers2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR2——
Rams1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR2——
snapsepapass rate
205 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
205 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one back, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runDragCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
49ers6Rams0
49ers7Rams0
Touchdown12 plays, from the 49ers 28 to the Rams 6
Punt8 plays, from the Rams 33 to the Rams 44
The period ended16 plays, from the 49ers 9 to the Rams 25
2nd quarter49 plays
49ers13Rams0
49ers14Rams0
Touchdown4 plays, from the Rams 24 to the Rams 1
Fumble lost10 plays, from the Rams 31 to the 49ers 24
Punt6 plays, from the 49ers 30 to the Rams 48
49ers14Rams6
49ers14Rams7
Touchdown11 plays, from the Rams 15 to the 49ers 14
49ers17Rams7
Field goal17 plays, from the 49ers 33 to the Rams 19
3rd quarter41 plays
No good8 plays, from the Rams 37 to the 49ers 35
49ers20Rams7
Field goal14 plays, from the 49ers 43 to the Rams 1
49ers20Rams13
49ers20Rams14
Touchdown9 plays, from the Rams 31 to the 49ers 1
The period ended10 plays, from the 49ers 27 to the 49ers 42
4th quarter59 plays
Punt2 plays
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.9 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
49ers20Rams20
Touchdown11 plays, from the Rams 12 to the 49ers 8
Punt5 plays, from the 49ers 35 to the 49ers 37
Punt4 plays, from the Rams 30 to the Rams 39
49ers23Rams20
Field goal13 plays, from the 49ers 2 to the Rams 40
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Fumble lost7 plays, from the Rams 35 to the 49ers 3
The period ended7 plays, from the 49ers 1 to the 49ers 3
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
49ers23Rams23
Field goal8 plays, from midfield to the 49ers 30
The period ended2 plays
Overtime19 plays
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one back, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runSwingCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.8 seconds
49ers26Rams23
Field goal9 plays, from the 49ers 40 to the Rams 14
How the play was built
Empty backfield, no huddle, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.6 seconds
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
The period ended9 plays, from the Rams 33 to the 49ers 11
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
