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polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:41 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2025 Week 5 · Sun, Oct 5, 2025 · Lumen Field
FinalThe verdict · 2025 Week 5
It turned at Q4 0:58, 2nd and 1, on Lavonte David — 48.7 win-probability points to the Buccaneers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 38–35 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:58, Buccaneers +48.7% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:58 · 2nd and 1
Lavonte David
Buccaneers
(:58) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short middle intended for 10-C.Kupp INTERCEPTED by 54-L.David (90-L.Hall) at SEA 38. 54-L.David to SEA 35 for 3 yards (76-G.Zabel).
48.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Giveaways
Buccaneers won this one — no giveaways, against Seahawks at 2 giveaways.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Seahawks owned this one and still lost it — 61% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Buccaneers at 52% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Seahawksthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Red zone
Seahawks owned this one and still lost it — 4 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Buccaneers at 4 touchdowns on 7 trips.
Seahawksthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 4.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 11 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Seahawks.
(:58) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short middle intended for 10-C.Kupp INTERCEPTED by 54-L.David (90-L.Hall) at SEA 38. 54-L.David to SEA 35 for 3 yards (76-G.Zabel).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Chase McLaughlin's 39-yard field goal with 0:03 left in the 4th put Tampa Bay Buccaneers ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Chase McLaughlin39-yd field goal39-yard field goalholder R.Dixon · snap E.DeckersLead never changed again+338–3512 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Buccaneerscategory by categorySeahawks
Seahawks ahead 5–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.69 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Buccaneers ran 58 snaps at a 67% dropback rate against Seahawks’s 54 at 63%. Red-zone trips: Buccaneers 7, Seahawks 5.
Seahawks outgained Buccaneers 463-429 but lost the turnover battle 2-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
SEA's sack or hit rate, 2.6%, was the lowest of the 28 team-games charted in week 5 — 0.6 points clear of the next team along.
39 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.1 points. · −2.2σ from their own normal
TB's play-action rate, 33.3%, is past their previous high of 21.6% in week 1 — the highest of their 5 charted games through week 5.
39 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.3 points. · +2.0σ from their own normal
TB's sack or hit rate, 5.9%, is past their previous low of 8.5% in week 1 — the lowest of their 5 charted games through week 5.
34 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.0 points. · −1.1σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 19 pts
Over Expected room →Buccaneers6.3 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +9.5 vs their -3.3 pts, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (+1.10× that swing) · 57 snaps
Seahawks-2.4 ptsinside their normal wobble · +4.3 vs their -6.7 pts, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (+0.68× that swing) · 54 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 21% to 87%
Tendencies room →Buccaneers63.0%inside their normal wobble · +8.8 vs their 54.2%, and they swing ±12.7 week to week (+0.70× that swing) · 46 early downs
Seahawks56.8%inside their normal wobble · +9.0 vs their 47.8%, and they swing ±10.0 week to week (+0.90× that swing) · 44 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 47%
Tendencies room →Buccaneers33.3%leaned — faked the run · +16.3 vs their 17.1%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (+1.97× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Seahawks23.5%right on their number · −2.0 vs their 25.5%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (−0.24× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23% to 112%
Fourth Down room →Buccaneers—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 45.1%.
Seahawks33.3%right on their number · +4.0 vs their 29.4%, and they swing ±19.5 week to week (+0.20× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 3% to 62%
Tendencies room →Buccaneers38.2%right on their number · +0.6 vs their 37.7%, and they swing ±9.2 week to week (+0.06× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Seahawks17.9%inside their normal wobble · −7.1 vs their 25.1%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (−0.86× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 32%
Tendencies room →Buccaneers5.9%leaned — stayed blocked · −7.4 vs their 13.3%, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (−1.06× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Seahawks2.6%off script — stayed blocked · −13.5 vs their 16.0%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (−2.21× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
SEA's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 2.6%, 13.5 points below their season mean of 16.0% and 2.2 times their own 6.1-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Seattle Seahawks
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Who moved the needle
Passing · TB
29/33, 379 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
26.0 expected points added · +20.4% completion over expected
Passing · SEA
28/34, 341 yds, 4 TD, 1 INT
23.4 expected points added · +16.3% completion over expected
Receiving · SEA
8/9 for 132 yds, 1 TD
26% of team targets · 11.0 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Emeka Egbuka banked 16.6 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emeka EgbukaWR · Featured Receiver | 31.3 | +16.6 | 85% | 90% | 22% | 58% | 7/7, 163 yd, 1 TD |
| Sam DarnoldQB · Starter QB | 27.6 | +11.2 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 28/34, 341 yd, 4 TD, 1 INT |
| Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · Alpha Receiver | 27.2 | +10.7 | 90% | 91% | 26% | 39% | 8/9, 132 yd, 1 TD |
| Baker MayfieldQB · Starter QB | 26.7 | +8.3 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 29/33, 379 yd, 2 TD · 5 car, 15 yd |
| AJ BarnerTE · Featured Receiver | 24.3 | +10.7 | 80% | 76% | 21% | 11% | 7/7, 53 yd, 2 TD |
| Rachaad WhiteRB · Committee Back | 23.1 | +4.4 | 80% | 79% | 13% | 0% | 14 car, 41 yd, 2 TD · 4/4, 30 yd |
| Tory HortonWR · Rotational Receiver | 12.9 | +4.6 | 49% | 53% | 12% | 12% | 3/4, 39 yd, 1 TD |
| Cade OttonTE · Rotational Receiver | 12.1 | +3.5 | 92% | 90% | 16% | 19% | 4/5, 81 yd |
| Cooper KuppWR · Alpha Receiver | 11.9 | −1.3 | 89% | 94% | 26% | 21% | 6/9, 59 yd |
| Sterling ShepardWR · Rotational Receiver | 11.9 | +2.1 | 41% | 54% | 16% | 19% | 1 car, -5 yd · 4/5, 24 yd, 1 TD |
| Zach CharbonnetRB · Committee Back | 11.8 | +3.5 | 56% | 65% | 6% | 2% | 9 car, 36 yd, 1 TD · 1/2, 12 yd |
| Tez JohnsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 9.9 | +2.8 | 36% | 49% | 13% | 12% | 4/4, 59 yd |
| Kenneth Walker IIIRB · Committee Back | 9.6 | +1.4 | 44% | 32% | 3% | 0% | 10 car, 86 yd · 1/1, 0 yd |
| Chris Godwin Jr.WR · Rotational Receiver | 5.6 | +0.1 | 77% | 82% | 13% | 5% | 3/4, 26 yd |
| Dareke YoungWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.6 | +2.9 | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Sean TuckerRB | 2.9 | −3.1 | 21% | 21% | 9% | 0% | 3 car, 3 yd · 3/3, -4 yd |
| Elijah ArroyoTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.0 | +0.6 | 43% | 47% | 3% | 2% | 1/1, 10 yd |
| Kameron JohnsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.2 | −0.6 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| George HolaniRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Jake BoboWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Josh WilliamsRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Payne DurhamTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 30% | 15% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Jalen MilroeQB | -2.0 | −2.0 | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
6 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Seahawks attack right, the Buccaneers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(:58) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short middle intended for 10-C.Kupp INTERCEPTED by 54-L.David (90-L.Hall) at SEA 38. 54-L.David to SEA 35 for 3 yards (76-G.Zabel).
Q4 0:58 · Seahawks · 2nd & 1 at SEA 32 · gained nothing · -3.83 EP · −40.2% win probability
150 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 162 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 150 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 157. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
12 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was SEA moving 99 yards from the SEA 1 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SEA attacks right, TB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
162 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
162 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Buccaneers3
Seahawks0Buccaneers6Seahawks0How the play was built
A man in motion.
Buccaneers12Seahawks0Buccaneers13Seahawks0Buccaneers13Seahawks6Buccaneers13Seahawks7Buccaneers13Seahawks13Buccaneers13Seahawks14How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
Buccaneers19Seahawks14Buccaneers21Seahawks14How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the second read, from outside the pocket.
Buccaneers21Seahawks20Buccaneers21Seahawks21How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
Buccaneers27Seahawks21Buccaneers28Seahawks21How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
Buccaneers28Seahawks27Buccaneers28Seahawks28How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, no huddle, a man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
Buccaneers28Seahawks34Buccaneers28Seahawks35How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
Buccaneers34Seahawks35Buccaneers35Seahawks35How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read, it should have been intercepted.
Buccaneers38Seahawks35Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Buccaneers at Seahawks, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 29/33 | 379 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +26.0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rachaad White | 14 | 41 | 2.9 | 2 | +0.3 |
| Baker Mayfield | 5 | 15 | 3.0 | 0 | −0.3 |
| Sean Tucker |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emeka Egbuka | 7 | 7 | 163 | 1 | 22% | +17.1 |
| Cade Otton | 4 | 5 | 81 | 0 | 16% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lavonte David | 5 | 4 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Jacob Parrish | 5 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| SirVocea Dennis |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | 28/34 | 341 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +23.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2025_05_TB_SEA
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Seahawks closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 44.5; the game landed 73 — over by 28.5.
Conditions and crew
| 3 |
| 3 |
| 1.0 |
| 0 |
| −1.6 |
| Kameron Johnson | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | −0.4 |
| Sterling Shepard | 1 | -5 | -5.0 | 0 | −1.1 |
| +6.7 |
| Tez Johnson | 4 | 4 | 59 | 0 | 13% | +4.2 |
| Rachaad White | 4 | 4 | 30 | 0 | 13% | +1.3 |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 3 | 4 | 26 | 0 | 13% | +1.8 |
| Sterling Shepard | 4 | 5 | 24 | 1 | 16% | +0.1 |
| Sean Tucker | 3 | 3 | -4 | 0 | 9% | −2.8 |
| 4 |
| 4 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Tykee Smith | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Kindle Vildor | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Logan Hall | 0 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Antoine Winfield Jr. | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Zyon McCollum | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Yaya Diaby | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Braswell | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kenneth Walker III | 10 | 86 | 8.6 | 0 | +2.4 |
| Zach Charbonnet | 9 | 36 | 4.0 | 1 | +1.5 |
| Jalen Milroe | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | −5.4 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 8 | 9 | 132 | 1 | 26% | +11.0 |
| Cooper Kupp | 6 | 9 | 59 | 0 | 26% | −0.7 |
| AJ Barner | 7 | 7 | 53 | 2 | 21% | +6.0 |
| Tory Horton | 3 | 4 | 39 | 1 | 12% | +4.7 |
| Dareke Young | 1 | 1 | 36 | 0 | 3% | +2.6 |
| Zach Charbonnet | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 6% | −0.7 |
| Elijah Arroyo | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 3% | +1.1 |
| Kenneth Walker III | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.6 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coby Bryant | 6 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ty Okada | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Ernest Jones | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Drake Thomas | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick Emmanwori | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyrice Knight | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Leonard Williams | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Uchenna Nwosu | 1 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Dareke Young | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Boye Mafe | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
