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2025 Week 5 · Sun, Oct 5, 2025 · Lumen Field

Tampa Bay BuccaneersWinner

38

Seattle Seahawks

35

SEA -3.5 upsetO 44.5 ✓

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 38–35 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:58, TB +49% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3SEA ↑TB ↓
Q4 · 0:58TB 35 — SEA 35SEA ball · 2nd & 1SEA 72%

(:58) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short middle intended for 10-C.Kupp INTERCEPTED by 54-L.David (90-L.Hall) at SEA 38. 54-L.David to SEA 35 for 3 yards (76-G.Zabel).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 0:58TB +49% win prob(:58) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short middle intended for 10-C.Kupp INTERCEPTED by 54-L.David (90-L.Hall) at SEA 38. 54-L.David to SEA 35 for 3 yards (76-G.Zabel).
  2. Q3 · 1:37SEA +24% win prob(1:37) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep left to 2-E.Egbuka to SEA 2 for 57 yards (8-C.Bryant).
  3. Q4 · 3:25SEA +22% win prob(3:25) (No Huddle) 14-S.Darnold pass deep left to 15-T.Horton for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  4. Q3 · 7:56SEA +19% win prob(7:56) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right to 2-E.Egbuka for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 8:00TB Field goal

    (8:00) 4-C.McLaughlin 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

    Score after this play: TB 3 — SEA 0
  2. Q2 · 14:11TB Field goal

    (14:11) 4-C.McLaughlin 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

    Score after this play: TB 6 — SEA 0
  3. Q2 · 2:14TB Touchdown

    (2:14) 1-R.White left end for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: TB 13 — SEA 0
  4. Q2 · 0:09SEA Touchdown

    (:09) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 11-J.Smith-Njigba for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: TB 13 — SEA 7
  5. Q3 · 13:05SEA Touchdown

    (13:05) 26-Z.Charbonnet right tackle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: TB 13 — SEA 14
  6. Q3 · 7:56TB Touchdown

    (7:56) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right to 2-E.Egbuka for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)

    Score after this play: TB 21 — SEA 14
  7. Q3 · 4:17SEA Touchdown

    (4:17) 78-M.Richman reported in as eligible. 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 88-A.Barner for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on TB-92-E.Simmons, Defensive Offside, declined. (kick good)

    Score after this play: TB 21 — SEA 21
  8. Q3 · 0:23TB Touchdown

    (:23) 1-R.White left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: TB 28 — SEA 21
  9. Q4 · 9:53SEA Touchdown

    (9:53) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 88-A.Barner for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: TB 28 — SEA 28
  10. Q4 · 3:25SEA Touchdown

    (3:25) (No Huddle) 14-S.Darnold pass deep left to 15-T.Horton for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: TB 28 — SEA 35
  11. Q4 · 1:15TB Touchdown

    (1:15) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 17-S.Shepard for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: TB 35 — SEA 35
  12. Q4 · 0:03TB Field goal

    (:03) 4-C.McLaughlin 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

    Score after this play: TB 38 — SEA 35

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricBuccaneersSeahawks
Offensive plays5854
Total yards429463 (edge)
Yards per play7.48.6 (edge)
Expected points added / play0.400.41 (edge)
Success rate52%61% (edge)
Dropback rate67%63%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.660.69 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.15-0.08 (edge)
Third downs7/116/9 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)88
First downs gained on snaps2424
Sacks taken10 (edge)
Turnovers0 (edge)2

Seahawks outgained Buccaneers 463–429 but lost the turnover battle 2–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · TB

Baker MayfieldQB

29/33, 379 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

26.0 expected points added · +20.4% completion over expected

Passing · SEA

Sam DarnoldQB

28/34, 341 yds, 4 TD, 1 INT

23.4 expected points added · +16.3% completion over expected

Rushing · SEA

Kenneth Walker IIIRB

10 att, 86 yds, 0 TD

2.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · TB

Rachaad WhiteRB

14 att, 41 yds, 2 TD

0.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · TB

Emeka EgbukaWR

7/7 for 163 yds, 1 TD

22% of team targets · 17.1 expected points added

Receiving · SEA

Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR

8/9 for 132 yds, 1 TD

26% of team targets · 11.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1TBTB 2012687:03Field goal +3
2SEASEA 297553:52Missed field goal
3TBTB 3410324:57Field goal +3
4SEASEA 276222:46Punt
5TBTB 6422:18Punt
6SEASEA 415212:40Fumble
7TBTB 418594:15Touchdown +7
8SEASEA 4612542:03Touchdown +7
9TB—100:06End of half
10SEASEA 236771:59Touchdown +7
11TBTB 2311795:09Touchdown +8
12SEASEA 208803:40Touchdown +7
13TBTB 258803:53Touchdown +7
14SEASEA 4912615:31Touchdown +7
15TBTB 357242:28Punt
16SEASEA 19844:02Touchdown +7
17TBTB 307702:10Touchdown +7
18SEASEA 23390:15Interception
19TBSEA 355150:53Field goal +3

12 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Seahawks gained 84 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Baker Mayfield29/3337920126.0

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Rachaad White14412.920.3
Baker Mayfield5153.00-0.3
Sean Tucker331.00-1.6
Kameron Johnson122.00-0.4
Sterling Shepard1-5-5.00-1.1

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Emeka Egbuka77163122%17.1
Cade Otton4581016%6.7
Tez Johnson4459013%4.2
Rachaad White4430013%1.3
Chris Godwin Jr.3426013%1.8
Sterling Shepard4524116%0.1
Sean Tucker33-409%-2.8

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Jacob Parrish540.000
Lavonte David540.011
SirVocea Dennis440.000
Tykee Smith240.002
Kindle Vildor410.000
Logan Hall040.001
Zyon McCollum300.001
Antoine Winfield Jr.120.001
Yaya Diaby110.000
Chris Braswell200.000

Seattle Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Sam Darnold28/3434141023.4

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Kenneth Walker III10868.602.4
Zach Charbonnet9364.011.5
Jalen Milroe100.00-5.4

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Jaxon Smith-Njigba89132126%11.0
Cooper Kupp6959026%-0.7
AJ Barner7753221%6.0
Tory Horton3439112%4.7
Dareke Young113603%2.6
Zach Charbonnet121206%-0.7
Elijah Arroyo111003%1.1
Kenneth Walker III11003%-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Coby Bryant610.000
Ty Okada430.002
Ernest Jones430.000
Drake Thomas420.000
Nick Emmanwori410.000
Leonard Williams130.000
Uchenna Nwosu130.500
Tyrice Knight310.000
Dareke Young210.000
D'Anthony Bell030.500

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
SEA -3.5
Closing total
44.5
TB moneyline
+150
SEA moneyline
-180

Seahawks closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 44.5; the game landed 73 — over by 28.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Lumen Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
61°F, wind 8 mph
Referee
Craig Wrolstad
Rest
TB 7 days · SEA 10 days
Coaches
Todd Bowles vs Mike Macdonald