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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 8:19 AM ET · 15 to play · 1 final
2025 Week 5 · Sun, Oct 5, 2025 · State Farm Stadium
Final
TitansTennessee22
BY 1final margin
CardinalsArizona21
Tennessee Titans 22 at Arizona Cardinals 21. Final.
Cardinals -7.5 upset
The verdict · 2025 Week 5
Tennessee Titans 22, Cardinals 21 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 0:03, 4th and 11, on Joey Slye — 44.3 win-probability points to the Titans on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
O 41.5 ✓
Dome
Cardinals closed -7.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Tennessee Titans 22–21 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:03, Titans +44.3% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:03 · 4th and 11
Joey Slye
Titans
(:03) 6-J.Slye 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker.
44.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Dadrion Taylor-DemersonTitansQ4 4:53(4:53) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short left intended for 0-C.Ridley INTERCEPTED by 42-D.Taylor-Demerson (2-Ma.Wilson) at ARI 5. 42-D.Taylor-Demerson to ARI 5 for no gain. FUMBLES, touched at ARI 6, RECOVERED by TEN-4-T.Lockett at ARI 0. TOUCHDOWN.
10.9pts
Calvin RidleyTitansQ4 0:32(:32) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass deep right to 0-C.Ridley ran ob at ARI 15 for 38 yards.
34.9pts
What separated them
Red zone
Cardinals owned this one and still lost it — 3 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Titans at 1 touchdown on 3 trips.
Cardinalsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Cardinals owned this one and still lost it — 8 of 16 on third down, against Titans at 5 of 14 on third down.
Cardinalsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Titans won this one — 44% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Cardinals at 38% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Titansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Cardinals owned this one and still lost it — 1 giveaway, against Titans at 2 giveaways.
Cardinalsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 6.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 20 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Titans.
MarketModelmodel higher on Cardinalshigher on Titans169 of 180 plays carry both curves
(:03) 6-J.Slye 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker.
Swing −44.3 for CardinalsExpected points −0.13 for CardinalsThe model had Titans 7 points higher than the market did.play 178
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:03ARI +44% win prob(:03) 6-J.Slye 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker.
4th · 0:32ARI +35% win prob(:32) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass deep right to 0-C.Ridley ran ob at ARI 15 for 38 yards.
4th · 4:53ARI +11% win prob(4:53) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short left intended for 0-C.Ridley INTERCEPTED by 42-D.Taylor-Demerson (2-Ma.Wilson) at ARI 5. 42-D.Taylor-Demerson to ARI 5 for no gain. FUMBLES, touched at ARI 6, RECOVERED by TEN-4-T.Lockett at ARI 0. TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 2:00TEN +9% win prob(2:00) 12-B.Gillikin punts 47 yards to TEN 18, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 17-C.Dike.
1st · 11:26ARI +8% win prob(11:26) 1-K.Murray pass deep right to 18-M.Harrison for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on TEN-18-J.Armour-Davis, Illegal Contact, declined. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 1-K.Murray pass deep right to 18-M.Harrison to TEN 1 for 43 yards (25-X.Woods; 18-J.Armour-Davis). Penalty on TEN-18-J.Armour-Davis, Illegal Contact, declined.
4th · 0:26ARI +7% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Joey Slye's 29-yard field goal with 0:03 left in the 4th put Tennessee Titans ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
4th0:03Joey Slye·29-yd field goal29-yard field goalholder J.Hekker · snap M.CoxLead never changed again+322–21
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Titanscategory by categoryCardinals
Titans3–6Cardinals
335Total yards360
5.5Yards per play5.6
44%Success rate38%
36%Third-down rate50%
1Red-zone touchdowns3
6Explosive plays7
18First downs16
2Sacks taken3
2Turnovers1
The read
Cardinals ahead 6–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.04Titans: −0.04 expected points added per play
−0.07Cardinals: −0.07 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.03Titans: +0.03 expected points added per play
+0.12Cardinals: +0.12 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.19Titans: −0.19 expected points added per play
−0.34Cardinals: −0.34 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Titans ran 61 snaps at a 69% dropback rate against Cardinals’s 64 at 58%. Red-zone trips: Titans 3, Cardinals 4.
NoteTitans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.04 expected points added per play vs -0.07.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 18 pts
right on their number · −2.4 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±5.9 week to week (−0.41× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Cardinals9.5%
right on their number · −1.9 vs their 11.4%, and they swing ±5.0 week to week (−0.38× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
NoteTEN's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 0.0%, 35.2 points below their season mean of 35.2% and 1.3 times their own 27.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
6 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Cardinals attack right, the Titans attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Titans←Cardinals→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Joey Slye+37% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:03) 6-J.Slye 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker.
Q4 0:03 · Titans · 4th & goal at ARI 11 · gained nothing · +0.13 EP · +37.0% win probability
167 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 180 plays across 26 drives, personnel groupings on 167 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 175. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 26 drives ended in points. The longest march was ARI moving 92 yards from the ARI 7 for a turnover. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; ARI attacks right, TEN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
180 of 180 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
180
EPA per play
-0.04
Success rate
40%
Yards
687
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Titans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR34+0.0279%
Cardinals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR33-0.0673%
Titans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR15-0.2367%
Cardinals1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR13+0.1023%
Cardinals1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR8-0.4213%
Cardinals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5-0.09100%
Titans1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Cardinals1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR2——
Titans1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Titans1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Cardinals1 RB, 4 TE, 0 WR1——
Titans1 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Titans2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Cardinals1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Titans2 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR1——
Cardinals2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Titans1 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
180 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
180 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, from outside the pocket, caught in traffic.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw5.4 seconds
Titans0Cardinals6
Titans0Cardinals7
Touchdown12 plays, from the Cardinals 33 to the Titans 1
Titans3Cardinals7
Field goal13 plays, from the Titans 30 to the Cardinals 26
Titans3Cardinals13
Titans3Cardinals14
Touchdown10 plays, from the Cardinals 35 to the Titans 12
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter55 plays
Punt4 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Cardinals 26 to the Cardinals 35
Fumble lost1 play
Titans3Cardinals20
Titans3Cardinals21
Touchdown5 plays, from the Titans 27 to the Titans 1
Titans6Cardinals21
Field goal5 plays, from the Cardinals 34 to the Cardinals 29
Punt11 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Cardinals 37
Punt9 plays, from the Titans 10 to the Titans 39
Punt5 plays, from the Cardinals 11 to the Cardinals 15
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Titans 49 to the Cardinals 40
Punt4 plays, from the Titans 48 to the Titans 46
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter33 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Titans 28 to the Titans 36
Fumble lost14 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Titans 18
Punt4 plays, from the Titans 26 to the Titans 35
Punt4 plays, from the Cardinals 16 to the Cardinals 17
Punt4 plays, from the Titans 37 to the Titans 43
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter53 plays
Drive ended5 plays, from the Cardinals 11 to the Cardinals 28
Titans12Cardinals21
Touchdown8 plays, from the Titans 20 to the Cardinals 1
Punt5 plays, from the Cardinals 30 to the Cardinals 31
Titans18Cardinals21
Titans19Cardinals21
Touchdown9 plays, from the Titans 19 to the Cardinals 20
Punt10 plays, from the Cardinals 20 to the Cardinals 35
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
Titans22Cardinals21
Field goal15 plays, from the Titans 18 to the Cardinals 4
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Cardinals -7.5
Closing total
41.5
Titans moneyline
+330
Cardinals moneyline
-425
Cardinals closed -7.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 41.5; the game landed 43 — over by 1.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
State Farm Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · grass
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Shawn Smith
Rest
Titans 7 days · Cardinals 10 days
Coaches
Brian Callahan vs Jonathan Gannon
(:26) 20-T.Pollard right tackle to ARI 4 for 11 yards (2-Ma.Wilson; 27-A.Davis-Gaither). ARI-34-J.Thompson was injured during the play.
2nd · 12:24TEN +5% win prob(12:24) 20-T.Pollard left tackle to TEN 30 for 4 yards (90-Z.Carter; 27-A.Davis-Gaither). FUMBLES (90-Z.Carter), RECOVERED by ARI-5-B.Browning at TEN 27.
1st · 0:46ARI +5% win prob(:46) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray scrambles right end for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Titanscategory by categoryCardinals
Titans0
Cardinals6
