2025 Week 5 · Sun, Oct 5, 2025 · State Farm Stadium

Tennessee TitansWinner

Arizona Cardinals

ARI -7.5 upsetO 41.5 ✓DomeCardinals closed -7.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Tennessee Titans 22–21 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:03, ARI +44% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 0:03TEN 22 — ARI 21TEN ball · 4th & 11TEN 56%

(:03) 6-J.Slye 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 0:03ARI +44% win prob(:03) 6-J.Slye 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker.
Q4 · 0:32ARI +35% win prob(:32) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass deep right to 0-C.Ridley ran ob at ARI 15 for 38 yards.
Q4 · 4:53ARI +11% win prob(4:53) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short left intended for 0-C.Ridley INTERCEPTED by 42-D.Taylor-Demerson (2-Ma.Wilson) at ARI 5. 42-D.Taylor-Demerson to ARI 5 for no gain. FUMBLES, touched at ARI 6, RECOVERED by TEN-4-T.Lockett at ARI 0. TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 2:00TEN +9% win prob(2:00) 12-B.Gillikin punts 47 yards to TEN 18, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 17-C.Dike.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 10:57ARI Touchdown
(10:57) 22-M.Carter up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: TEN 0 — ARI 7
Q1 · 5:04TEN Field goal
(5:04) 6-J.Slye 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker.
Score after this play: TEN 3 — ARI 7
Q1 · 0:46ARI Touchdown
(:46) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray scrambles right end for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: TEN 3 — ARI 14
Q2 · 10:49ARI Touchdown
(10:49) 68-K.Beachum reported in as eligible. 20-Z.Knight left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: TEN 3 — ARI 21
Q2 · 8:34TEN Field goal
(8:34) 6-J.Slye 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker.
Score after this play: TEN 6 — ARI 21
Q4 · 10:30TEN Touchdown
(10:30) 20-T.Pollard up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: TEN 12 — ARI 21
Q4 · 4:53TEN Touchdown
(4:53) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short left intended for 0-C.Ridley INTERCEPTED by 42-D.Taylor-Demerson (2-Ma.Wilson) at ARI 5. 42-D.Taylor-Demerson to ARI 5 for no gain. FUMBLES, touched at ARI 6, RECOVERED by TEN-4-T.Lockett at ARI 0. TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: TEN 19 — ARI 21
Q4 · 0:03TEN Field goal
(:03) 6-J.Slye 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker.
Score after this play: TEN 22 — ARI 21

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Titans	Cardinals
Offensive plays	61	64
Total yards	335	360 (edge)
Yards per play	5.5	5.6 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.04 (edge)	-0.07
Success rate	44% (edge)	38%
Dropback rate	69%	58%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.03	0.12 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.19 (edge)	-0.34
Third downs	5/14	8/16 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6	7 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	18 (edge)	16
Sacks taken	2 (edge)	3
Turnovers	2	1 (edge)

Titans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.04 expected points added per play vs -0.07.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · TEN

Cam WardQB

21/39, 265 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

1.6 expected points added · -9.6% completion over expected

Passing · ARI

Kyler MurrayQB

23/31, 220 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

2.0 expected points added · +8.1% completion over expected

Rushing · TEN

Tony PollardRB

14 att, 67 yds, 1 TD

-4.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · ARI

Michael CarterRB

18 att, 51 yds, 1 TD

-3.8 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · TEN

Calvin RidleyWR

5/10 for 131 yds, 0 TD

27% of team targets · 11.8 expected points added

Receiving · ARI

Marvin Harrison Jr.WR

4/5 for 98 yds, 0 TD

17% of team targets · 8.4 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	ARI	ARI 33	10	72	4:06	Touchdown +7
2	TEN	TEN 30	13	44	5:54	Field goal +3
3	ARI	ARI 35	9	65	4:21	Touchdown +7
4	TEN	TEN 13	6	24	1:44	Punt
5	ARI	ARI 26	4	9	1:31	Punt
6	TEN	TEN 26	1	1	0:09	Fumble
7	ARI	TEN 27	5	27	1:32	Touchdown +7
8	TEN	ARI 34	5	1	2:14	Field goal +3
9	ARI	ARI 25	8	2	3:36	Punt
10	TEN	TEN 10	8	24	2:49	Punt
11	ARI	ARI 11	4	9	0:34	Punt
12	TEN	TEN 49	5	-1	0:41	Turnover on downs
13	ARI	TEN 48	4	2	0:43	Punt
14	TEN	TEN 20	1	0	0:06	End of half
15	TEN	TEN 28	5	8	2:17	Punt
16	ARI	ARI 25	13	70	7:52	Fumble
17	TEN	TEN 26	4	9	1:41	Punt
18	ARI	ARI 16	4	1	0:55	Punt
19	TEN	TEN 37	4	6	1:32	Punt
20	ARI	ARI 7	5	87	3:03	Turnover on downs
21	TEN	TEN 20	7	80	2:14	Touchdown +6
22	ARI	ARI 30	5	1	1:41	Punt
23	TEN	TEN 19	9	61	4:06	Defensive touchdown +7
24	ARI	ARI 20	8	15	2:46	Punt
25	TEN	TEN 18	11	78	1:53	Field goal +3

8 of 25 drives ended in points. Longest march: Cardinals gained 87 scrimmage yards over 5 plays for a turnover on downs.

Full stat lines

Box score

Tennessee Titans

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Cam Ward	21/39	265	0	1	2	1.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Tony Pollard	14	67	4.8	1	-4.2
Tyjae Spears	4	14	3.5	0	0.0
Julius Chestnut	1	3	3.0	0	0.5
Cam Ward	5	-6	-1.2	0	-2.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Calvin Ridley	5	10	131	27%	11.8
Chig Okonkwo	4	5	48	14%	1.5
Gunnar Helm	4	5	34	14%	2.1
Elic Ayomanor	2	4	18	11%	-1.1
Chimere Dike	2	5	17	14%	-1.2
Tony Pollard	3	3	11	8%	-0.3
Tyler Lockett	1	4	6	11%	-5.4
Julius Chestnut	0	1	0	3%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Cedric Gray	5	6	0.0	0
Jalyn Armour-Davis	5	4	0.0	1
Jeffery Simmons	6	2	1.5	0
Cody Barton	4	2	0.0	0
Sebastian Joseph-Day	3	2	1.0	0
L'Jarius Sneed	2	2	0.0	0
Amani Hooker	3	1	0.0	0
Dre'Mont Jones	2	1	0.0	0
Arden Key	0	2	0.5	0
Shy Tuttle	1	1	0.0	0

Arizona Cardinals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Kyler Murray	23/31	220	0	0	3	2.0
Jacoby Brissett	0/1	0	0	0	0	-0.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Emari Demercado	3	81	27.0	0	-3.1
Michael Carter	18	51	2.8	1	-3.8
Kyler Murray	4	25	6.3	1	0.3
Bam Knight	4	11	2.8	1	0.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Marvin Harrison Jr.	4	5	98	17%	8.4
Trey McBride	5	7	41	23%	2.3
Michael Carter	5	5	22	17%	0.1
Michael Wilson	2	4	16	13%	-1.5
Bam Knight	1	1	13	3%	1.0
Greg Dortch	2	2	12	7%	0.7
Elijah Higgins	2	2	10	7%	-0.5
Zay Jones	2	3	8	10%	-0.9
Tip Reiman	0	1	0	3%	-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Mack Wilson	4	2	0.0	0	1
Budda Baker	4	2	0.0	0	0
Akeem Davis-Gaither	2	3	0.0	0	0
Kei'Trel Clark	2	2	0.0	0	1
Josh Sweat	3	1	2.0	0	1
Jalen Thompson	2	2	0.0	0	0
Dadrion Taylor-Demerson	4	0	0.0	1	2
Will Johnson	3	0	0.0	0	1
Dante Stills	1	1	0.0	0	0
PJ Mustipher	2	0	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: ARI -7.5
Closing total: 41.5
TEN moneyline: +330
ARI moneyline: -425

Cardinals closed -7.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 41.5; the game landed 43 — over by 1.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: State Farm Stadium
Roof / surface: closed · grass
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Shawn Smith
Rest: TEN 7 days · ARI 10 days
Coaches: Brian Callahan vs Jonathan Gannon