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2025 Week 5 · Sun, Oct 5, 2025 · SoFi Stadium

Washington CommandersWinner

27

Los Angeles Chargers

10

LAC -2.5 upsetU 47.5 ✓Dome

Washington Commanders 27–10 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 0:50, LAC +15% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3LAC ↑WAS ↓
Q2 · 0:50WAS 7 — LAC 10WAS ball · 4th & 15LAC 79%

(:50) 10-T.Way punts 55 yards to LAC 43, Center-69-T.Ott. 15-L.McConkey for 57 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on LAC-58-M.Wax, Roughing the Kicker, 15 yards, enforced at WAS 2 - No Play.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q2 · 0:50LAC +15% win prob(:50) 10-T.Way punts 55 yards to LAC 43, Center-69-T.Ott. 15-L.McConkey for 57 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on LAC-58-M.Wax, Roughing the Kicker, 15 yards, enforced at WAS 2 - No Play.
  2. Q4 · 15:00WAS +13% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 22-J.Croskey-Merritt up the middle to LAC 41 for -5 yards (90-T.Tart). FUMBLES (90-T.Tart), RECOVERED by LAC-90-T.Tart at LAC 43.
  3. Q2 · 1:45LAC +11% win prob(1:45) 16-J.Scott punts 54 yards to WAS 7, Center-41-R.Lovato, downed by LAC-24-B.St-Juste.
  4. Q4 · 8:27WAS +9% win prob(8:27) 30-K.Vidal left tackle to WAS 4 for -3 yards (58-J.Magee).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 9:53LAC Touchdown

    (9:53) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 15-L.McConkey for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: WAS 0 — LAC 7
  2. Q1 · 3:02LAC Field goal

    (3:02) 11-C.Dicker 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-R.Lovato, Holder-16-J.Scott.

    Score after this play: WAS 0 — LAC 10
  3. Q2 · 4:21WAS Touchdown

    (4:21) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 22-J.Croskey-Merritt left end for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: WAS 7 — LAC 10
  4. Q2 · 0:05WAS Field goal

    (:05) 16-M.Gay 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

    Score after this play: WAS 10 — LAC 10
  5. Q3 · 11:02WAS Touchdown

    (11:02) (Shotgun) 73-T.Scott reported in as eligible. 22-J.Croskey-Merritt left end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: WAS 17 — LAC 10
  6. Q3 · 5:52WAS Field goal

    (5:52) 16-M.Gay 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way. Penalty on LAC-53-D.Phillips, Defensive Offside, declined.

    Score after this play: WAS 20 — LAC 10
  7. Q4 · 1:14WAS Touchdown

    (1:14) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short right to 1-D.Samuel for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: WAS 27 — LAC 10

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricCommandersChargers
Offensive plays5463
Total yards389 (edge)337
Yards per play7.2 (edge)5.3
Expected points added / play0.25 (edge)-0.14
Success rate57% (edge)40%
Dropback rate57%62%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.56 (edge)-0.24
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.150.03 (edge)
Third downs2/79/16 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)10 (edge)6
First downs gained on snaps1818
Sacks taken1 (edge)5
Turnovers1 (edge)2

Commanders won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.25 expected points added per play vs -0.14.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · WAS

Jayden DanielsQB

15/26, 231 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

14.0 expected points added · -0.8% completion over expected

Passing · LAC

Justin HerbertQB

22/29, 166 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-6.1 expected points added · +3.9% completion over expected

Rushing · WAS

Jacory Croskey-MerrittRB

14 att, 111 yds, 2 TD

2.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · LAC

Omarion HamptonRB

12 att, 44 yds, 0 TD

0.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · WAS

Deebo Samuel Sr.WR

8/11 for 96 yds, 1 TD

48% of team targets · 7.8 expected points added

Receiving · LAC

Keenan AllenWR

5/9 for 58 yds, 0 TD

28% of team targets · 0.4 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1LACLAC 2411765:11Touchdown +7
2WASWAS 42551:28Punt
3LACLAC 209475:24Field goal +3
4WASWAS 137252:57Punt
5LACLAC 1410606:10Fumble
6WASWAS 2610794:35Touchdown +7
7LACLAC 328122:40Punt
8WASWAS 78671:33Field goal +3
9LACLAC 35200:02End of half
10WASWAS 319644:02Touchdown +7
11LACLAC 28512:34Punt
12WASWAS 438442:35Field goal +3
13LACLAC 239383:58Turnover on downs
14WASWAS 394181:59Fumble
15LACLAC 4314537:12Interception
16WASWAS 114876:32Touchdown +7
17LACLAC 357501:08End of game

7 of 17 drives ended in points. Longest march: Commanders gained 87 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Washington Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Jayden Daniels15/2623110114.0

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Jacory Croskey-Merritt141117.922.0
Jayden Daniels8394.901.3
Chris Rodriguez Jr.571.40-3.4
Jeremy McNichols166.000.1

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Deebo Samuel Sr.81196148%7.8
Luke McCaffrey125009%1.3
Jacory Croskey-Merritt223909%2.8
Jaylin Lane121609%2.0
Jeremy McNichols121209%0.4
John Bates11904%1.1
Tay Martin11904%0.8
Zach Ertz01004%-0.3
Chris Moore01004%-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Bobby Wagner860.000
Quan Martin630.000
Mike Sainristil720.012
Jeremy Reaves520.001
Frankie Luvu220.000
Javon Kinlaw310.000
Jordan Magee120.000
Dorance Armstrong212.000
Jacob Martin120.500
Von Miller211.500

Los Angeles Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Justin Herbert22/29166114-6.1
Trey Lance3/444001-1.4

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Justin Herbert46015.004.8
Omarion Hampton12443.700.3
Kimani Vidal4184.50-0.3
Hassan Haskins5132.60-1.6
Trey Lance11111.000.6
Quentin Johnston199.000.7

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Keenan Allen5958028%0.4
Quentin Johnston4440013%-1.9
Ladd McConkey5739122%1.2
Tyler Conklin233009%-4.0
Omarion Hampton6626019%-0.8
Oronde Gadsden II111403%0.7
Hassan Haskins11203%-0.6
Kimani Vidal11103%-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Troy Dye640.000
Daiyan Henley260.000
Elijah Molden410.000
Justin Eboigbe311.000
Tarheeb Still310.002
Cam Hart220.000
Alohi Gilman130.000
Teair Tart210.000
Derwin James210.000
Benjamin St-Juste200.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
LAC -2.5
Closing total
47.5
WAS moneyline
+130
LAC moneyline
-155

Chargers closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 47.5; the game landed 37 — under by 10.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
SoFi Stadium
Roof / surface
dome · matrixturf
Kickoff weather
Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee
John Hussey
Rest
WAS 7 days · LAC 7 days
Coaches
Dan Quinn vs Jim Harbaugh