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2025 Week 6 · Mon, Oct 13, 2025 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium
14
24
Atlanta Falcons 24–14. Biggest swing: Q2 11:22, ATL +17% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
(11:22) (Shotgun) 7-B.Robinson right guard for 81 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
How the points landed
(12:22) (Shotgun) 25-T.Allgeier left guard for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BUF 0 — ATL 7(8:08) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep middle to 88-D.Knox for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BUF 7 — ATL 7(:32) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short left to 5-D.London for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BUF 7 — ATL 14(11:22) (Shotgun) 7-B.Robinson right guard for 81 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BUF 7 — ATL 21(9:29) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 22-R.Davis for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BUF 14 — ATL 21(1:47) 39-J.Romo 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
Score after this play: BUF 14 — ATL 24Down-to-down truth
| Metric | Bills | Falcons |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 54 | 65 |
| Total yards | 291 | 444 (edge) |
| Yards per play | 5.4 | 6.8 (edge) |
| Expected points added / play | -0.12 | 0.07 (edge) |
| Success rate | 46% | 48% (edge) |
| Dropback rate | 63% | 54% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.15 | -0.00 (edge) |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.07 | 0.15 (edge) |
| Third downs | 2/9 | 5/12 (edge) |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 4 | 10 (edge) |
| First downs gained on snaps | 15 | 19 (edge) |
| Sacks taken | 4 | 2 (edge) |
| Turnovers | 2 | 1 (edge) |
Falcons won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.07 expected points added per play vs -0.12.
Who moved the needle
Passing · ATL
20/32, 250 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
-0.4 expected points added · -6.4% completion over expected
Passing · BUF
15/26, 180 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT
-7.2 expected points added · -7.9% completion over expected
Possession by possession
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ATL | ATL 31 | 7 | 64 | 2:45 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 2 | BUF | BUF 27 | 8 | 83 | 4:14 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 3 | ATL | ATL 42 | 5 | -2 | 1:35 | Punt | |
| 4 | BUF | BUF 26 | 4 | 0 | 1:01 | Punt | |
| 5 | ATL | ATL 34 | 10 | 66 | 4:59 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 6 | BUF | BUF 26 | 9 | 17 | 3:35 | Punt | |
| 7 | ATL | ATL 14 | 2 | 81 | 0:42 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 8 | BUF | BUF 22 | 7 | 27 | 3:00 | Punt | |
| 9 | ATL | ATL 5 | 11 | 62 | 6:13 | Turnover on downs | |
| 10 | BUF | BUF 34 | 4 | 4 | 0:44 | Punt | |
| 11 | ATL | ATL 13 | 7 | 16 | 0:57 | Punt | |
| 12 | BUF | BUF 31 | 1 | 0 | 0:05 | Interception | |
| 13 | ATL | BUF 49 | 2 | 48 | 0:10 | End of half | |
| 14 | BUF | BUF 27 | 11 | 73 | 5:37 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 15 | ATL | ATL 26 | 7 | 8 | 3:16 | Punt | |
| 16 | BUF | BUF 20 | 8 | 24 | 5:09 | Turnover on downs | |
| 17 | ATL | ATL 47 | 8 | 25 | 3:34 | Missed field goal | |
| 18 | BUF | BUF 39 | 4 | 9 | 2:07 | Punt | |
| 19 | ATL | ATL 15 | 4 | 8 | 1:47 | Punt | |
| 20 | BUF | BUF 33 | 4 | 0 | 1:47 | Punt | |
| 21 | ATL | ATL 17 | 14 | 68 | 5:00 | Field goal +3 | |
| 22 | BUF | BUF 30 | 7 | 54 | 1:02 | Interception | |
| 23 | ATL | ATL 13 | 1 | 0 | 0:41 | End of game |
6 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bills gained 83 scrimmage yards over 8 plays for a touchdown.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 15/26 | 180 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -7.2 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Cook | 17 | 87 | 5.1 | 0 | 1.9 |
| Josh Allen | 6 | 42 | 7.0 | 0 | -1.3 |
| Ty Johnson | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 | 0.1 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Palmer | 2 | 2 | 60 | 0 | 8% | 4.1 |
| Khalil Shakir | 3 | 5 | 33 | 0 | 19% | 0.9 |
| Tyrell Shavers | 3 | 5 | 27 | 0 | 19% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaq Thompson | 5 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Taylor Rapp | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dorian Williams | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cole Bishop |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Penix Jr. | 20/32 | 250 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -0.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson | 19 | 170 | 8.9 | 1 |
Closing number vs result
Bills closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 49.5; the game landed 38 — under by 11.5.
Conditions and crew
| -0.4 |
| Dawson Knox | 1 | 2 | 19 | 1 | 8% | 3.3 |
| Ray Davis | 2 | 2 | 19 | 1 | 8% | 2.3 |
| Ty Johnson | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 8% | -3.8 |
| Keon Coleman | 3 | 6 | 11 | 0 | 23% | -6.8 |
| Elijah Moore | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8% | -1.9 |
| 1 |
| 4 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Joey Bosa | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Taron Johnson | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Terrel Bernard | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Deone Walker | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| A.J. Epenesa | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Benford | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5.3 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 10 | 32 | 3.2 | 1 | -1.2 |
| Michael Penix Jr. | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 | 0.3 |
| Feleipe Franks | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | 0.4 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake London | 10 | 16 | 158 | 1 | 52% | 4.5 |
| Bijan Robinson | 6 | 8 | 68 | 0 | 26% | 2.5 |
| Kyle Pitts | 3 | 4 | 18 | 0 | 13% | -0.5 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 3% | 0.3 |
| Casey Washington | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6% | -3.5 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dee Alford | 4 | 2 | 1.0 | 1 | 3 |
| Jessie Bates | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Hughes | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Divine Deablo | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Xavier Watts | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kaden Elliss | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sam Roberts | 1 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalon Walker | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| David Onyemata | 3 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| KhaDarel Hodge | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
