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Atlanta Falcons 24, Bills 14 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 11:22, 1st and 5, on Bijan Robinson — 16.5 win-probability points to the Falcons on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 11:22 · 1st and 5
Bijan Robinson
Falcons
(11:22) (Shotgun) 7-B.Robinson right guard for 81 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Dome
Bills closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Atlanta Falcons 24–14. Biggest swing: Q2 11:22, Falcons +16.5% win probability on one snap.
16.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Dawson KnoxBillsQ1 8:08(8:08) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep middle to 88-D.Knox for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
12.1pts
Drake LondonBillsQ2 0:06(:06) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short right to 5-D.London for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short right to 5-D.London pushed ob at BUF 1 for 39 yards (9-T.Rapp).
9.6pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Falcons won this one — 10 chunk plays, against Bills at 4 chunk plays.
Falconsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Bills owned this one and still lost it — 2 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Falcons at 1 touchdown on 5 trips.
Billsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Falcons won this one — 5 of 12 on third down, against Bills at 2 of 9 on third down.
Falconsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Falcons won this one — +0.15 expected points per carry, against Bills at -0.07 expected points per carry.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 10.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 23 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Falcons.
MarketModelmodel higher on Falconshigher on Bills158 of 168 plays carry both curves
(11:22) (Shotgun) 7-B.Robinson right guard for 81 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +16.5 for FalconsExpected points +5.71 for FalconsThe model had Falcons 16 points higher than the market did.play 52
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 11:22ATL +17% win prob(11:22) (Shotgun) 7-B.Robinson right guard for 81 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 8:08ATL +12% win prob(8:08) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep middle to 88-D.Knox for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 0:06BUF +10% win prob(:06) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short right to 5-D.London for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short right to 5-D.London pushed ob at BUF 1 for 39 yards (9-T.Rapp).
1st · 12:09ATL +9% win prob(12:09) 17-J.Allen pass deep middle to 5-J.Palmer to ATL 28 for 45 yards (21-M.Hughes).
1st · 0:32ATL +9% win prob(:32) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short left to 5-D.London for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 2:44ATL +9% win prob(2:44) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short left to 5-D.London to BUF 31 for 20 yards (24-C.Bishop).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Drake London's 9-yard touchdown catch with 0:32 left in the 1st put Atlanta Falcons ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
4th1:47John Parker Romo·33-yd field goal33-yard field goalholder B.Pinion · snap L.McCullough+314–24
6 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Billscategory by categoryFalcons
Bills1–8Falcons
291Total yards444
5.4Yards per play6.8
46%Success rate48%
22%Third-down rate42%
2Red-zone touchdowns1
4Explosive plays10
15First downs19
4Sacks taken2
2Turnovers1
The read
Falcons ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — explosive plays.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.12Bills: −0.12 expected points added per play
+0.07Falcons: +0.07 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.15Bills: −0.15 expected points added per play
−0.00Falcons: −0.00 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.07Bills: −0.07 expected points added per play
+0.15Falcons: +0.15 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bills ran 54 snaps at a 63% dropback rate against Falcons’s 65 at 54%. Red-zone trips: Bills 3, Falcons 5.
NoteFalcons won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.07 expected points added per play vs -0.12.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 6Against their seasonOver Expected
ATL's pass rate over expected, +1.5 pts, is past their previous high of −2.3 pts in week 1 — the highest of their 5 charted games through week 6.
65 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 14 pts
inside their normal wobble · −4.9 vs their 16.4%, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (−0.58× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Falcons17.6%
inside their normal wobble · +3.2 vs their 14.5%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (+0.55× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
NoteBUF's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 33.3%, 27.7 points below their season mean of 61.1% and 1.3 times their own 21.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Buffalo Bills
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 2 never used
64O'Cyrus TorrenceG · Every snap100%57 snaps
76David EdwardsG · Every snap100%57 snaps
73Dion DawkinsT · Every snap100%57 snaps
17Josh AllenQB · Every snap100%57 snaps
79Spencer BrownT · Every snap100%57 snaps
66Connor McGovernC · Full-time98%56 snaps
0Keon ColemanWR · Full-time86%49 snaps
88Dawson KnoxTE · Full-time81%46 snaps
10Khalil ShakirWR · Heavy rotation60%34 snaps
85Jackson HawesTE · Heavy rotation54%31 snaps
4James CookRB · Heavy rotation53%30 snaps
14Tyrell ShaversWR · Rotational49%28 snaps
26Ty JohnsonRB · Rotational42%24 snaps
41Reggie GilliamFB · Rotational37%21 snaps
18Elijah MooreWR · Rotational25%14 snaps
5Josh PalmerWR · Situational11%6 snaps
22Ray DavisRB · Situational4%2 snaps
70Alec AndersonG · Situational2%1 snap
Inactive · 5
Jimmy CiarloMLBMatt MilanoOLBChase LundtTDalton KincaidTECurtis SamuelWR
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
DaQuan JonesDTMitchell TrubiskyQB
Atlanta Falcons
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
63Chris LindstromG · Every snap100%70 snaps
65Matthew BergeronG · Every snap100%70 snaps
71Elijah WilkinsonT · Every snap100%70 snaps
9Michael Penix Jr.QB · Every snap100%70 snaps
64Ryan NeuzilC · Every snap100%70 snaps
5Drake LondonWR · Full-time97%68 snaps
8Kyle PittsTE · Full-time93%65 snaps
82Casey WashingtonWR · Full-time80%56 snaps
7Bijan RobinsonRB · Heavy rotation74%52 snaps
89Charlie WoernerTE · Heavy rotation67%47 snaps
70Jake MatthewsT · Heavy rotation54%38 snaps
72Michael JerrellT · Rotational46%32 snaps
87David SillsWR · Rotational44%31 snaps
25Tyler AllgeierRB · Rotational31%22 snaps
84Feleipe FranksTE · Situational4%3 snaps
85Teagan QuitorianoTE · Situational4%3 snaps
4KhaDarel HodgeWR · Situational4%3 snaps
Inactive · 7
Clark Phillips IIICBLaCale LondonDTNate CarterRBBilly Bowman Jr.SSJack NelsonTRay-Ray McCloudWRDarnell MooneyWR
6 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Falcons attack right, the Bills attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bills←Falcons→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
B.Robinson right+12% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(11:22) (Shotgun) 7-B.Robinson right guard for 81 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 11:22 · Falcons · 1st & 5 at ATL 19 · gained 81 · +5.71 EP · +11.5% win probability
156 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 168 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 156 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 163. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was ATL moving 81 yards from the ATL 19 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; ATL attacks right, BUF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
168 of 168 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
168
EPA per play
-0.01
Success rate
48%
Yards
734
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Falcons1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR41+0.1146%
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR34-0.2871%
Falcons1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR19-0.0574%
Bills2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR18+0.3928%
Falcons2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Bills2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Bills1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR1——
Falcons1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
168 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
168 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter43 plays
Bills0Falcons6
Bills0Falcons7
Touchdown8 plays, from the Falcons 31 to the Bills 21
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.3 seconds
Bills6Falcons7
Bills7Falcons7
Touchdown9 plays, from the Bills 27 to the Falcons 14
Punt6 plays
Punt4 plays
Bills7Falcons13
Bills7Falcons14
Touchdown12 plays, from the Falcons 34 to the Bills 9
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter47 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Bills 26 to the Falcons 42
How the play was built
A run-pass option, a man in motion.
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Bills7Falcons20
Bills7Falcons21
Touchdown3 plays, from the Falcons 14 to the Falcons 19
Punt7 plays, from the Bills 22 to the Bills 49
Turnover on downs11 plays, from the Falcons 5 to the Bills 33
Punt4 plays, from the Bills 34 to the Bills 38
The period ended10 plays, from the Falcons 13 to the Falcons 29
Intercepted1 play
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter31 plays
Bills13Falcons21
Bills14Falcons21
Touchdown11 plays, from the Bills 27 to the Falcons 16
Punt7 plays, from the Falcons 26 to the Falcons 37
Turnover on downs10 plays, from the Bills 20 to the Falcons 46
The period ended3 plays, from the Falcons 47 to the Bills 42
4th quarter47 plays
No good7 plays, from the Bills 45 to the Bills 17
Punt4 plays, from the Bills 39 to the Bills 48
Punt4 plays, from the Falcons 15 to the Falcons 24
Punt4 plays
Bills14Falcons24
Field goal19 plays, from the Falcons 17 to the Bills 9
Intercepted7 plays, from the Bills 30 to the Falcons 16
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
