2025 Week 6 · Mon, Oct 13, 2025 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium

Buffalo Bills

Atlanta FalconsWinner

BUF -3.5 upsetU 49.5 ✓DomeBills closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Atlanta Falcons 24–14. Biggest swing: Q2 11:22, ATL +17% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 11:22BUF 7 — ATL 20ATL ball · 1st & 5ATL 57%

(11:22) (Shotgun) 7-B.Robinson right guard for 81 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 11:22ATL +17% win prob(11:22) (Shotgun) 7-B.Robinson right guard for 81 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 8:08ATL +12% win prob(8:08) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep middle to 88-D.Knox for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 0:06BUF +10% win prob(:06) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short right to 5-D.London for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short right to 5-D.London pushed ob at BUF 1 for 39 yards (9-T.Rapp).
Q1 · 12:09ATL +9% win prob(12:09) 17-J.Allen pass deep middle to 5-J.Palmer to ATL 28 for 45 yards (21-M.Hughes).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 12:22ATL Touchdown
(12:22) (Shotgun) 25-T.Allgeier left guard for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BUF 0 — ATL 7
Q1 · 8:08BUF Touchdown
(8:08) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep middle to 88-D.Knox for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BUF 7 — ATL 7
Q1 · 0:32ATL Touchdown
(:32) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short left to 5-D.London for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BUF 7 — ATL 14
Q2 · 11:22ATL Touchdown
(11:22) (Shotgun) 7-B.Robinson right guard for 81 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BUF 7 — ATL 21
Q3 · 9:29BUF Touchdown
(9:29) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 22-R.Davis for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BUF 14 — ATL 21
Q4 · 1:47ATL Field goal
(1:47) 39-J.Romo 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
Score after this play: BUF 14 — ATL 24

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Bills	Falcons
Offensive plays	54	65
Total yards	291	444 (edge)
Yards per play	5.4	6.8 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.12	0.07 (edge)
Success rate	46%	48% (edge)
Dropback rate	63%	54%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.15	-0.00 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.07	0.15 (edge)
Third downs	2/9	5/12 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	4	10 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	15	19 (edge)
Sacks taken	4	2 (edge)
Turnovers	2	1 (edge)

Falcons won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.07 expected points added per play vs -0.12.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · ATL

Michael Penix Jr.QB

20/32, 250 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

-0.4 expected points added · -6.4% completion over expected

Passing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

15/26, 180 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT

-7.2 expected points added · -7.9% completion over expected

Rushing · ATL

Bijan RobinsonRB

19 att, 170 yds, 1 TD

5.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · BUF

James CookRB

17 att, 87 yds, 0 TD

1.9 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · ATL

Drake LondonWR

10/16 for 158 yds, 1 TD

52% of team targets · 4.5 expected points added

Receiving · ATL

Bijan RobinsonRB

6/8 for 68 yds, 0 TD

26% of team targets · 2.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	ATL	ATL 31	7	64	2:45	Touchdown +7
2	BUF	BUF 27	8	83	4:14	Touchdown +7
3	ATL	ATL 42	5	-2	1:35	Punt
4	BUF	BUF 26	4	0	1:01	Punt
5	ATL	ATL 34	10	66	4:59	Touchdown +7
6	BUF	BUF 26	9	17	3:35	Punt
7	ATL	ATL 14	2	81	0:42	Touchdown +7
8	BUF	BUF 22	7	27	3:00	Punt
9	ATL	ATL 5	11	62	6:13	Turnover on downs
10	BUF	BUF 34	4	4	0:44	Punt
11	ATL	ATL 13	7	16	0:57	Punt
12	BUF	BUF 31	1	0	0:05	Interception
13	ATL	BUF 49	2	48	0:10	End of half
14	BUF	BUF 27	11	73	5:37	Touchdown +7
15	ATL	ATL 26	7	8	3:16	Punt
16	BUF	BUF 20	8	24	5:09	Turnover on downs
17	ATL	ATL 47	8	25	3:34	Missed field goal
18	BUF	BUF 39	4	9	2:07	Punt
19	ATL	ATL 15	4	8	1:47	Punt
20	BUF	BUF 33	4	0	1:47	Punt
21	ATL	ATL 17	14	68	5:00	Field goal +3
22	BUF	BUF 30	7	54	1:02	Interception
23	ATL	ATL 13	1	0	0:41	End of game

6 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bills gained 83 scrimmage yards over 8 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Buffalo Bills

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Josh Allen	15/26	180	2	2	4	-7.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
James Cook	17	87	5.1	1.9
Josh Allen	6	42	7.0	-1.3
Ty Johnson	1	5	5.0	0.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Josh Palmer	2	2	60	0	8%	4.1
Khalil Shakir	3	5	33	0	19%	0.9
Tyrell Shavers	3	5	27	0	19%	-0.4
Dawson Knox	1	2	19	1	8%	3.3
Ray Davis	2	2	19	1	8%	2.3
Ty Johnson	1	2	11	0	8%	-3.8
Keon Coleman	3	6	11	0	23%	-6.8
Elijah Moore	0	2	0	0	8%	-1.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Shaq Thompson	5	5	1
Taylor Rapp	5	2	0
Dorian Williams	5	1	0
Taron Johnson	3	2	1
Joey Bosa	1	4	0
Cole Bishop	1	4	0
Deone Walker	3	1	1
Terrel Bernard	2	2	0
Christian Benford	2	1	0
A.J. Epenesa	1	2	0

Atlanta Falcons

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Michael Penix Jr.	20/32	250	1	0	2	-0.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Bijan Robinson	19	170	8.9	1	5.3
Tyler Allgeier	10	32	3.2	1	-1.2
Michael Penix Jr.	2	6	3.0	0	0.3
Feleipe Franks	1	2	2.0	0	0.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Drake London	10	16	158	1	52%	4.5
Bijan Robinson	6	8	68	0	26%	2.5
Kyle Pitts	3	4	18	0	13%	-0.5
Tyler Allgeier	1	1	6	0	3%	0.3
Casey Washington	0	2	0	0	6%	-3.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Dee Alford	4	2	1.0	1	3
Mike Hughes	4	1	0.0	0	1
Xavier Watts	3	2	0.0	0	0
Jessie Bates	3	2	0.0	0	0
Divine Deablo	1	4	0.0	0	1
David Onyemata	3	1	1.0	0	0
Jalon Walker	2	2	0.0	0	0
Sam Roberts	1	3	1.0	0	0
Kaden Elliss	2	2	0.0	0	0
Arnold Ebiketie	1	2	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: BUF -3.5
Closing total: 49.5
BUF moneyline: -205
ATL moneyline: +170

Bills closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 49.5; the game landed 38 — under by 11.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Roof / surface: closed · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Shawn Smith
Rest: BUF 8 days · ATL 15 days
Coaches: Sean McDermott vs Raheem Morris