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2025 Week 6 · Mon, Oct 13, 2025 · FedExField

Chicago BearsWinner

25

Washington Commanders

24

WAS -5.5 upsetU 49.5 ✓

Chicago Bears 25–24 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:03, WAS +40% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3WAS ↑CHI ↓
Q4 · 0:03CHI 25 — WAS 24CHI ball · 2nd & 12CHI 60%

(:03) 16-J.Moody 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 0:03WAS +40% win prob(:03) 16-J.Moody 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.
  2. Q4 · 3:10CHI +26% win prob(3:10) (Shotgun) 73-T.Scott reported in as eligible. 5-J.Daniels FUMBLES (Aborted) at CHI 45, RECOVERED by CHI-26-N.Wright at CHI 44.
  3. Q4 · 10:36WAS +21% win prob(10:36) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short left to 4-D.Swift for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  4. Q3 · 3:03WAS +20% win prob(3:03) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass deep left to 11-L.McCaffrey for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 10:45CHI Field goal

    (10:45) 16-J.Moody 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.

    Score after this play: CHI 3 — WAS 0
  2. Q1 · 2:30CHI Field goal

    (2:30) 16-J.Moody 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.

    Score after this play: CHI 6 — WAS 0
  3. Q2 · 14:22CHI Touchdown

    (14:22) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CHI 13 — WAS 0
  4. Q2 · 9:33WAS Touchdown

    (9:33) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass deep left to 19-C.Moore for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CHI 13 — WAS 7
  5. Q3 · 12:03WAS Field goal

    (12:03) 16-M.Gay 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

    Score after this play: CHI 13 — WAS 10
  6. Q3 · 8:09CHI Field goal

    (8:09) 16-J.Moody 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.

    Score after this play: CHI 16 — WAS 10
  7. Q3 · 3:03WAS Touchdown

    (3:03) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass deep left to 11-L.McCaffrey for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CHI 16 — WAS 17
  8. Q4 · 11:31WAS Touchdown

    (11:31) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short middle to 86-Z.Ertz for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CHI 16 — WAS 24
  9. Q4 · 10:36CHI Touchdown

    (10:36) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short left to 4-D.Swift for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: CHI 22 — WAS 24
  10. Q4 · 0:03CHI Field goal

    (:03) 16-J.Moody 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.

    Score after this play: CHI 25 — WAS 24

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricBearsCommanders
Offensive plays5959
Total yards383 (edge)330
Yards per play6.5 (edge)5.6
Expected points added / play0.17 (edge)-0.06
Success rate53% (edge)44%
Dropback rate58%59%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.130.28 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.22 (edge)-0.56
Third downs3/103/8 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)9 (edge)6
First downs gained on snaps19 (edge)18
Sacks taken33
Turnovers0 (edge)3

Bears won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.17 expected points added per play vs -0.06.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CHI

Caleb WilliamsQB

17/29, 252 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

3.3 expected points added · -8.2% completion over expected

Passing · WAS

Jayden DanielsQB

19/26, 211 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT

6.4 expected points added · +11.1% completion over expected

Rushing · CHI

D'Andre SwiftRB

14 att, 108 yds, 0 TD

6.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · WAS

Jacory Croskey-MerrittRB

17 att, 61 yds, 0 TD

-6.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CHI

D'Andre SwiftRB

2/3 for 67 yds, 1 TD

10% of team targets · 6.1 expected points added

Receiving · CHI

Luther Burden IIIWR

4/4 for 51 yds, 0 TD

14% of team targets · 2.7 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1CHICHI 3010414:19Field goal +3
2WASWAS 359344:35Interception
3CHICHI 348463:39Field goal +3
4WASWAS 30200:28Fumble
5CHIWAS 356352:41Touchdown +7
6WASWAS 3510504:50Touchdown +7
7CHICHI 2610433:58Turnover on downs
8WASWAS 3110374:20Missed field goal
9CHICHI 404-20:51Punt
10WASWAS 9100:19End of half
11WASWAS 409353:01Field goal +3
12CHICHI 159623:54Field goal +3
13WASWAS 1611845:09Touchdown +7
14CHICHI 238473:01Missed field goal
15WASWAS 377633:28Touchdown +7
16CHICHI 395611:01Touchdown +6
17WASWAS 40762:29Punt
18CHICHI 94121:55Punt
19WASWAS 396212:55Fumble
20CHICHI 449383:07Field goal +3

10 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Commanders gained 84 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Chicago Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Caleb Williams17/292521033.3

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
D'Andre Swift141087.706.2
Kyle Monangai5193.80-0.5
DJ Moore2105.000.8
Roschon Johnson166.000.4
Olamide Zaccheaus144.00-0.2
Caleb Williams4-2-0.51-0.8

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
D'Andre Swift2367110%6.1
Luther Burden III4451014%2.7
DJ Moore3542017%1.9
Rome Odunze2532017%-2.5
Kyle Monangai112503%1.7
Olamide Zaccheaus2624021%-2.1
Colston Loveland2311010%0.1
Cole Kmet12007%-1.0

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Tremaine Edmunds390.000
T.J. Edwards450.000
Gervon Dexter Sr.231.500
Kevin Byard230.000
Nahshon Wright410.001
Shemar Turner300.000
Jonathan Owens120.000
Montez Sweat210.001
Dominique Robinson210.500
D'Marco Jackson120.000

Washington Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Jayden Daniels19/262113136.4

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Jacory Croskey-Merritt17613.60-6.7
Jayden Daniels10525.20-2.8
Jaylin Lane177.000.3
Jeremy McNichols252.50-0.3
Deebo Samuel Sr.1-1-1.00-0.7

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Chris Moore3546121%3.5
Zach Ertz6643125%5.1
Jaylin Lane123708%2.1
Luke McCaffrey113314%3.5
Jeremy McNichols3430017%3.3
Deebo Samuel Sr.4515021%-5.2
Jacory Croskey-Merritt11704%0.2

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Bobby Wagner350.000
Trey Amos340.001
Frankie Luvu421.001
Jeremy Reaves321.000
Quan Martin320.002
Daron Payne230.000
Darnell Savage220.000
Jalyn Holmes130.000
Mike Sainristil030.001
Jacob Martin120.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
WAS -5.5
Closing total
49.5
CHI moneyline
+210
WAS moneyline
-258

Commanders closed -5.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 49.5; the game landed 49 — under by 0.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
FedExField
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
59°F, wind 12 mph
Referee
Alex Moore
Rest
CHI 15 days · WAS 8 days
Coaches
Ben Johnson vs Dan Quinn