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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:36 AM ET · 16 to play
Chicago Bears 25 at Washington Commanders 24. Final.
Commanders -5.5 upset
The verdict · 2025 Week 6
Chicago Bears 25, Commanders 24 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 0:03, 2nd and 12, on Jake Moody — 40.2 win-probability points to the Bears on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:03 · 2nd and 12
Jake Moody
Bears
(:03) 16-J.Moody 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.
U 49.5 ✓
Commanders closed -5.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Chicago Bears 25–24 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:03, Bears +40.2% win probability on one snap.
40.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
D'Andre SwiftBearsQ4 10:36(10:36) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short left to 4-D.Swift for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
21.1pts
Unnamed on the sheetBearsQ4 3:10(3:10) (Shotgun) 73-T.Scott reported in as eligible. 5-J.Daniels FUMBLES (Aborted) at CHI 45, RECOVERED by CHI-26-N.Wright at CHI 44.
26.1pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Bears won this one — +0.22 expected points per carry, against Commanders at -0.56 expected points per carry.
Bearsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Bears won this one — no giveaways, against Commanders at 3 giveaways.
Bearsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Bears won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Commanders at 6 chunk plays.
Bearsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Bears won this one — 53% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Commanders at 44% of snaps stayed on schedule.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 9.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 17 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bears.
MarketModelmodel higher on Commandershigher on Bears157 of 170 plays carry both curves
(:03) 16-J.Moody 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.
Swing −40.2 for CommandersExpected points −0.37 for CommandersThe model had Commanders 3 points higher than the market did.play 168
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:03WAS +40% win prob(:03) 16-J.Moody 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.
4th · 3:10CHI +26% win prob(3:10) (Shotgun) 73-T.Scott reported in as eligible. 5-J.Daniels FUMBLES (Aborted) at CHI 45, RECOVERED by CHI-26-N.Wright at CHI 44.
4th · 10:36WAS +21% win prob(10:36) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short left to 4-D.Swift for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 3:03WAS +20% win prob(3:03) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass deep left to 11-L.McCaffrey for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 6:17CHI +17% win prob(6:17) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass deep left intended for 1-D.Samuel INTERCEPTED by 9-J.Brisker at CHI 2. 9-J.Brisker to CHI 34 for 32 yards (5-J.Daniels).
1st · 2:13CHI +13% win prob(2:13) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 22-J.Croskey-Merritt left tackle to WAS 33 for -2 yards (98-M.Sweat). FUMBLES (98-M.Sweat), RECOVERED by CHI-6-K.Gordon at WAS 35.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Jake Moody's 38-yard field goal with 0:03 left in the 4th put Chicago Bears ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st10:45Jake Moody·47-yd field goal47-yard field goalholder T.Taylor · snap S.Daly+33–0
1st2:30Jake Moody·48-yd field goal48-yard field goalholder T.Taylor · snap S.Daly+36–0
4th10:36D'Andre Swift·55-yd TD catch55-yard touchdown catchfrom Caleb Williamsfrom Caleb Williams · two-point no good+622–24
4th0:03Jake Moody·38-yd field goal38-yard field goalholder T.Taylor · snap S.DalyLead never changed again+325–24
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Bearscategory by categoryCommanders
Bears6–1Commanders
388Total yards330
6.6Yards per play5.6
53%Success rate44%
30%Third-down rate38%
1Red-zone touchdowns1
9Explosive plays6
19First downs18
3Sacks taken3
0Turnovers3
The read
Bears ahead 6–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.56 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.17Bears: +0.17 expected points added per play
−0.06Commanders: −0.06 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.13Bears: +0.13 expected points added per play
+0.28Commanders: +0.28 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.22Bears: +0.22 expected points added per play
−0.56Commanders: −0.56 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bears ran 59 snaps at a 58% dropback rate against Commanders’s 59 at 59%. Red-zone trips: Bears 4, Commanders 3.
NoteBears won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.17 expected points added per play vs -0.06.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
CHI's blitz rate sent, 48.6%, was the highest of the 30 team-games charted in week 6 — 1.5 points clear of the next team along.
35 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.2 points.
WAS's play-action rate turned over: 9.7% in week 5 against 34.3% here — they dropped back clean then and faked the run now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
35 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -24 pts to 15 pts
inside their normal wobble · −4.4 vs their 13.0%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (−0.55× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Commanders11.8%
right on their number · −2.5 vs their 14.2%, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (−0.39× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
NoteCHI's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 48.6%, 18.7 points above their season mean of 29.9% and 1.7 times their own 11.2-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Commanders attack right, the Bears attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bears←Commanders→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Jake Moody+43% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:03) 16-J.Moody 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.
Q4 0:03 · Bears · 2nd & 12 at WAS 20 · gained nothing · +0.37 EP · +43.4% win probability
155 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 170 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 155 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 165. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was WAS moving 84 yards from the WAS 16 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; WAS attacks right, CHI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
170 of 170 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
170
EPA per play
+0.06
Success rate
47%
Yards
715
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Bears1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR54+0.2052%
Commanders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR34+0.1759%
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR12-0.638%
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11-0.2455%
Bears0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR3——
Bears1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR2——
Commanders2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Commanders1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
170 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
170 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
Bears3Commanders0
Field goal10 plays, from the Bears 30 to the Commanders 29
How the play was built
Play action, no huddle, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
Intercepted11 plays, from the Commanders 35 to the Bears 21
Bears6Commanders0
Field goal9 plays, from the Bears 34 to the Commanders 30
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a run-pass option, no huddle, a man in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Commanders 30 to the Commanders 35
The period ended4 plays, from the Commanders 35 to the Commanders 19
2nd quarter44 plays
Bears12Commanders0
Bears13Commanders0
Touchdown3 plays, from the Commanders 7 to the Commanders 1
Bears13Commanders6
Bears13Commanders7
Touchdown11 plays, from the Commanders 35 to the Bears 22
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runDragCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.3 seconds
Turnover on downs11 plays, from the Bears 26 to the Commanders 31
The period ended12 plays, from the Commanders 31 to the Bears 32
The period ended5 plays, from the Bears 40 to the Bears 45
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter39 plays
How the play was built
No huddle, a man in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.3 seconds
Bears13Commanders10
Field goal9 plays, from the Commanders 40 to the Bears 25
Bears16Commanders10
Field goal11 plays, from the Bears 15 to the Commanders 11
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.9 seconds
Bears16Commanders16
Bears16Commanders17
Touchdown11 plays, from the Commanders 16 to the Bears 33
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
The period ended8 plays, from the Bears 23 to the Commanders 25
4th quarter49 plays
No good1 play
Bears16Commanders23
Bears16Commanders24
Touchdown8 plays, from the Commanders 37 to the Bears 6
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
Bears22Commanders24
Touchdown5 plays, from the Bears 39 to the Bears 45
Punt8 plays, from the Commanders 40 to the Bears 39
Punt5 plays, from the Bears 9 to the Bears 17
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.0 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFive linemen, two linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
The period ended7 plays, from the Commanders 39 to the Bears 40
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Bears25Commanders24
Field goal14 plays, from the Bears 44 to the Commanders 18
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
