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Cincinnati Bengals 18 at Green Bay Packers 27. Final.
Packers -14 no coverO 44.5 ✓
The verdict · 2025 Week 6
Green Bay Packers 27, Bengals 18 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q3 4:50, 4th and 2, on Tanner Hudson — 8.4 win-probability points to the Bengals on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 4:50 · 4th and 2
Tanner Hudson
Bengals
(4:50) (Shotgun) 16-J.Flacco pass short middle to 87-T.Hudson for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on GB-21-N.Hobbs, Defensive Holding, declined.
Packers closed -14, won by 9 — but didn't cover.
Green Bay Packers 27–18. Biggest swing: Q3 4:50, Bengals +8.4% win probability on one snap.
8.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Geno StoneBengalsQ1 8:51(8:51) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right intended for 87-R.Doubs INTERCEPTED by 22-G.Stone (20-D.Turner) [44-D.Knight] at CIN 11. 22-G.Stone ran ob at CIN 36 for 25 yards (10-J.Love).
7.2pts
Matthew GoldenPackersQ2 5:46(5:46) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep left to 0-M.Golden pushed ob at CIN 35 for 35 yards (29-C.Taylor-Britt).
4.0pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Packers won this one — 10 chunk plays, against Bengals at 1 chunk play.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Packers won this one — 58% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Bengals at 49% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Bengals owned this one and still lost it — 2 touchdowns on 2 trips, against Packers at 3 touchdowns on 4 trips.
Bengalsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Bengals owned this one and still lost it — no giveaways, against Packers at 1 giveaway.
Bengalsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 14.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 38 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bengals.
MarketModelmodel higher on Packershigher on Bengals155 of 167 plays carry both curves
(4:50) (Shotgun) 16-J.Flacco pass short middle to 87-T.Hudson for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on GB-21-N.Hobbs, Defensive Holding, declined.
Swing −8.4 for PackersExpected points −3.93 for PackersThe model had Bengals 15 points higher than the market did.play 102
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 4:50GB +8% win prob(4:50) (Shotgun) 16-J.Flacco pass short middle to 87-T.Hudson for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on GB-21-N.Hobbs, Defensive Holding, declined.
1st · 8:51CIN +7% win prob(8:51) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right intended for 87-R.Doubs INTERCEPTED by 22-G.Stone (20-D.Turner) [44-D.Knight] at CIN 11. 22-G.Stone ran ob at CIN 36 for 25 yards (10-J.Love).
2nd · 5:46GB +4% win prob(5:46) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep left to 0-M.Golden pushed ob at CIN 35 for 35 yards (29-C.Taylor-Britt).
1st · 14:56GB +4% win prob(14:56) 10-J.Love pass deep middle to 87-R.Doubs to CIN 45 for 21 yards (55-L.Wilson).
4th · 15:00GB +4% win prob(15:00) 8-J.Jacobs up the middle for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 8:03GB +3% win prob(8:03) (Shotgun) 34-S.Perine right tackle to CIN 33 for no gain (1-M.Parsons; 52-R.Gary).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Lucas Havrisik's 43-yard field goal with 14:20 left in the 2nd put Green Bay Packers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Lead
2nd14:20Lucas Havrisik·43-yd field goal43-yard field goalholder D.Whelan · snap M.OrzechLead never changed again+30–3
4th10:47Evan McPherson·45-yd field goal45-yard field goalholder R.Rehkow · snap W.Wagner+310–17
4th7:42Tucker Kraft·19-yd TD catch19-yard touchdown catchfrom Jordan Lovefrom Jordan Love+710–24
4th4:17Ja'Marr Chase·19-yd TD catch19-yard touchdown catchfrom Joe Flaccofrom Joe Flacco · two-point good+818–24
4th1:56Lucas Havrisik·39-yd field goal39-yard field goalholder D.Whelan · snap M.Orzech+318–27
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Bengalscategory by categoryPackers
Bengals1–7Packers
270Total yards409
4.4Yards per play6.9
49%Success rate58%
43%Third-down rate45%
2Red-zone touchdowns3
1Explosive plays10
18First downs23
1Sacks taken1
0Turnovers1
The read
Packers ahead 7–1 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Bengals, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.09Bengals: +0.09 expected points added per play
+0.21Packers: +0.21 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.14Bengals: +0.14 expected points added per play
+0.29Packers: +0.29 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.05Bengals: −0.05 expected points added per play
+0.11Packers: +0.11 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bengals ran 61 snaps at a 74% dropback rate against Packers’s 59 at 54%. Red-zone trips: Bengals 2, Packers 4.
NotePackers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.21 expected points added per play vs 0.09.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -28 pts to 20 pts
right on their number · −1.4 vs their 13.9%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (−0.18× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
Packers11.1%
inside their normal wobble · −5.2 vs their 16.3%, and they swing ±8.2 week to week (−0.63× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
NoteCIN's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 70.5%, 9.0 points above their season mean of 61.4% and 1.1 times their own 8.2-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Cincinnati Bengals
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 3 never used
75Orlando BrownT · Every snap100%65 snaps
64Ted KarrasC · Every snap100%65 snaps
74Jalen RiversG · Every snap100%65 snaps
66Dalton RisnerG · Every snap100%65 snaps
1Ja'Marr ChaseWR · Every snap100%65 snaps
16Joe FlaccoQB · Every snap100%65 snaps
80Andrei IosivasWR · Full-time94%61 snaps
71Amarius MimsT · Full-time86%56 snaps
5Tee HigginsWR · Full-time80%52 snaps
30Chase BrownRB · Heavy rotation54%35 snaps
86Noah FantTE · Rotational49%32 snaps
34Samaje PerineRB · Rotational46%30 snaps
89Drew SampleTE · Rotational34%22 snaps
87Tanner HudsonTE · Rotational25%16 snaps
82Mitchell TinsleyWR · Situational15%10 snaps
61Cody FordT · Situational14%9 snaps
88Mike GesickiTE · Situational3%2 snaps
Inactive · 6
Marco WilsonCBShemar StewartDEJordan JeffersonDTDylan FairchildGCam GrandyTEJermaine BurtonWR
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Packers attack right, the Bengals attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bengals←Packers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Love pass−15% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(8:51) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right intended for 87-R.Doubs INTERCEPTED by 22-G.Stone (20-D.Turner) [44-D.Knight] at CIN 11. 22-G.Stone ran ob at CIN 36 for 25 yards (10-J.Love).
Q1 8:51 · Packers · 3rd & 5 at CIN 19 · gained nothing · -5.62 EP · −15.4% win probability
153 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 167 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 153 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 162. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was GB moving 80 yards from the GB 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; GB attacks right, CIN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
167 of 167 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
167
EPA per play
+0.15
Success rate
53%
Yards
679
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Bengals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR54+0.1076%
Packers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR31+0.1748%
Packers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR21+0.3952%
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7+0.0157%
Packers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Packers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Packers1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
167 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
167 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter28 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw6.3 seconds
Intercepted12 plays, from the Packers 34 to the Bengals 17
Punt4 plays, from the Bengals 36 to the Bengals 37
The period ended11 plays, from the Packers 4 to the Bengals 26
2nd quarter52 plays
Bengals0Packers3
Field goal2 plays, from the Bengals 27 to the Bengals 25
Punt7 plays, from the Bengals 28 to the Bengals 45
Punt4 plays, from the Packers 16 to the Packers 24
Punt4 plays, from the Bengals 37 to the Bengals 45
Bengals0Packers9
Bengals0Packers10
Touchdown10 plays, from the Packers 20 to the Bengals 3
Punt5 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Packers 17 to the Bengals 42
The period ended13 plays, from the Bengals 7 to the Packers 49
3rd quarter33 plays
Bengals6Packers10
Bengals7Packers10
Touchdown23 plays, from the Bengals 22 to the Packers 1
The period ended10 plays, from the Packers 34 to the Bengals 17
4th quarter54 plays
Bengals7Packers16
Bengals7Packers17
Touchdown2 plays
Bengals10Packers17
Field goal10 plays, from the Bengals 23 to the Packers 27
Bengals10Packers23
Bengals10Packers24
Touchdown8 plays, from the Packers 38 to the Bengals 19
Bengals16Packers24
Bengals18Packers24
Touchdown14 plays, from the Bengals 35 to the Packers 19
Bengals18Packers27
Field goal10 plays, from the Packers 38 to the Bengals 21
The period ended8 plays, from the Bengals 35 to the Packers 38
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Packers -14
Closing total
44.5
Bengals moneyline
+650
Packers moneyline
-1000
Packers closed -14, won by 9 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 44.5; the game landed 45 — over by 0.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Lambeau Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Mild, 63°F at kickoff; breezy at 11 mph out of the south-east; overcast.
Referee
Brad Allen
Rest
Bengals 7 days · Packers 14 days
Coaches
Zac Taylor vs Matt LaFleur
4th · 4:17
GB +3% win prob
(4:17) (Shotgun) 16-J.Flacco pass deep right to 1-J.Chase for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 8:01GB +3% win prob(8:01) (Shotgun) 16-J.Flacco pass short middle to 5-T.Higgins to GB 1 for 13 yards (29-X.McKinney). CIN-5-T.Higgins was injured during the play.
