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2025 Week 6 · Sun, Oct 12, 2025 · Lambeau Field

Cincinnati Bengals

18

Green Bay PackersWinner

27

GB -14 no coverO 44.5 ✓

Green Bay Packers 27–18. Biggest swing: Q3 4:50, GB +8% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3GB ↑CIN ↓
Q3 · 4:50CIN 6 — GB 10CIN ball · 4th & 2GB 93%

(4:50) (Shotgun) 16-J.Flacco pass short middle to 87-T.Hudson for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on GB-21-N.Hobbs, Defensive Holding, declined.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q3 · 4:50GB +8% win prob(4:50) (Shotgun) 16-J.Flacco pass short middle to 87-T.Hudson for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on GB-21-N.Hobbs, Defensive Holding, declined.
  2. Q1 · 8:51CIN +7% win prob(8:51) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right intended for 87-R.Doubs INTERCEPTED by 22-G.Stone (20-D.Turner) [44-D.Knight] at CIN 11. 22-G.Stone ran ob at CIN 36 for 25 yards (10-J.Love).
  3. Q2 · 5:46GB +4% win prob(5:46) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep left to 0-M.Golden pushed ob at CIN 35 for 35 yards (29-C.Taylor-Britt).
  4. Q1 · 14:56GB +4% win prob(14:56) 10-J.Love pass deep middle to 87-R.Doubs to CIN 45 for 21 yards (55-L.Wilson).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q2 · 14:20GB Field goal

    (14:20) 35-L.Havrisik 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

    Score after this play: CIN 0 — GB 3
  2. Q2 · 4:08GB Touchdown

    (4:08) (Shotgun) 8-J.Jacobs up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CIN 0 — GB 10
  3. Q3 · 4:50CIN Touchdown

    (4:50) (Shotgun) 16-J.Flacco pass short middle to 87-T.Hudson for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on GB-21-N.Hobbs, Defensive Holding, declined. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CIN 7 — GB 10
  4. Q4 · 15:00GB Touchdown

    (15:00) 8-J.Jacobs up the middle for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CIN 7 — GB 17
  5. Q4 · 10:47CIN Field goal

    (10:47) 2-E.McPherson 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.

    Score after this play: CIN 10 — GB 17
  6. Q4 · 7:42GB Touchdown

    (7:42) 10-J.Love pass short right to 85-T.Kraft for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CIN 10 — GB 24
  7. Q4 · 4:17CIN Touchdown

    (4:17) (Shotgun) 16-J.Flacco pass deep right to 1-J.Chase for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)

    Score after this play: CIN 18 — GB 24
  8. Q4 · 1:56GB Field goal

    (1:56) 35-L.Havrisik 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

    Score after this play: CIN 18 — GB 27

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricBengalsPackers
Offensive plays6159
Total yards270409 (edge)
Yards per play4.46.9 (edge)
Expected points added / play0.090.21 (edge)
Success rate49%58% (edge)
Dropback rate74%54%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.140.29 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.050.11 (edge)
Third downs6/145/11 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)110 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps1823 (edge)
Sacks taken11
Turnovers0 (edge)1

Packers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.21 expected points added per play vs 0.09.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · GB

Jordan LoveQB

19/26, 259 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

7.4 expected points added · +6.6% completion over expected

Passing · CIN

Joe FlaccoQB

29/45, 219 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

6.5 expected points added · +4.7% completion over expected

Rushing · GB

Josh JacobsRB

18 att, 93 yds, 2 TD

1.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CIN

Chase BrownRB

9 att, 42 yds, 0 TD

-0.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CIN

Ja'Marr ChaseWR

10/12 for 94 yds, 1 TD

30% of team targets · 6.8 expected points added

Receiving · GB

Matthew GoldenWR

3/5 for 86 yds, 0 TD

19% of team targets · 6.6 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1GBGB 3412476:21Interception
2CINCIN 36412:00Punt
3GBGB 412717:24Field goal +3
4CINCIN 287171:49Punt
5GBGB 16442:08Punt
6CINCIN 37452:06Punt
7GBGB 209774:07Touchdown +7
8CINCIN 405-21:15Punt
9GBGB 176411:44Punt
10CINCIN 79441:06Missed field goal
11CINCIN 22197210:14Touchdown +7
12GBGB 3411664:50Touchdown +7
13CINCIN 2310504:13Field goal +3
14GBGB 388623:10Touchdown +7
15CINCIN 3512563:22Touchdown +8
16GBGB 388412:19Field goal +3
17CINCIN 357271:11Missed field goal
18GBGB 46100:41End of game

8 of 18 drives ended in points. Longest march: Packers gained 77 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Cincinnati Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Joe Flacco29/452192016.5

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Chase Brown9424.70-0.2
Samaje Perine6162.700.4
Ja'Marr Chase1-3-3.00-1.1

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Ja'Marr Chase101294130%6.8
Tee Higgins5862020%5.6
Noah Fant4427010%0.7
Samaje Perine231608%-1.4
Tanner Hudson4510113%0.4
Chase Brown22705%0.7
Andrei Iosivas145010%-1.8
Drew Sample12-205%-1.4

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Barrett Carter730.000
Daxton Hill540.000
Demetrius Knight Jr.430.000
Jordan Battle430.000
Joseph Ossai220.000
Cam Taylor-Britt400.000
DJ Turner II310.005
Logan Wilson130.000
Geno Stone301.011
Myles Murphy200.000

Green Bay Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Jordan Love19/262591117.4

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Josh Jacobs18935.221.1
Jordan Love7263.703.9
Matthew Golden2168.001.2
Emanuel Wilson3113.70-0.5
Savion Williams133.00-0.2
Bo Melton133.00-0.2
Chris Brooks111.00-0.4

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Matthew Golden3586019%6.6
Josh Jacobs5557019%3.3
Romeo Doubs5955035%-5.3
Tucker Kraft224318%3.7
Dontayvion Wicks221508%2.0
Luke Musgrave12708%-0.3
Emanuel Wilson11-404%-1.9

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Edgerrin Cooper470.000
Quay Walker530.000
Xavier McKinney330.000
Evan Williams150.000
Javon Bullard420.000
Keisean Nixon320.002
Carrington Valentine300.001
Nate Hobbs210.000
Colby Wooden110.000
Lukas Van Ness111.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
GB -14
Closing total
44.5
CIN moneyline
+650
GB moneyline
-1000

Packers closed -14, won by 9 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 44.5; the game landed 45 — over by 0.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Lambeau Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
64°F, wind 14 mph
Referee
Brad Allen
Rest
CIN 7 days · GB 14 days
Coaches
Zac Taylor vs Matt LaFleur