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Cleveland Browns 9 at Pittsburgh Steelers 23. Final.
Steelers -5.5 ✓U 37.5 ✓
The verdict · 2025 Week 6
Pittsburgh Steelers 23, Browns 9 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 14:55, 1st and 10, on Darnell Washington — 6.6 win-probability points to the Steelers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 14:55 · 1st and 10
Darnell Washington
Steelers
(14:55) (Shotgun) 74-S.Anderson reported in as eligible. 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 80-D.Washington to CLE 36 for 36 yards (7-T.Campbell). FUMBLES (7-T.Campbell), ball out of bounds at CLE 27.
Steelers closed -5.5 and covered, winning by 14.
Pittsburgh Steelers 23–9. Biggest swing: Q1 14:55, Steelers +6.6% win probability on one snap.
6.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
DK MetcalfSteelersQ1 6:50(6:50) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass deep right to 4-D.Metcalf pushed ob at PIT 39 for 25 yards (7-T.Campbell).
5.5pts
Andre SzmytBrownsQ3 4:13(4:13) 25-A.Szmyt 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.
4.8pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Steelers won this one — 10 chunk plays, against Browns at 2 chunk plays.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Steelers won this one — 1 touchdown on 2 trips, against Browns at 0 touchdowns on 3 trips.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Steelers won this one — +0.30 expected points per dropback, against Browns at -0.24 expected points per dropback.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Steelers won this one — +0.13 expected points per snap, against Browns at -0.19 expected points per snap.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 6.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 16 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Browns.
MarketModelmodel higher on Steelershigher on Browns171 of 186 plays carry both curves
(14:55) (Shotgun) 74-S.Anderson reported in as eligible. 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 80-D.Washington to CLE 36 for 36 yards (7-T.Campbell). FUMBLES (7-T.Campbell), ball out of bounds at CLE 27.
Swing +6.6 for SteelersExpected points +2.31 for SteelersThe model had Browns 15 points higher than the market did.play 3
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 14:55PIT +7% win prob(14:55) (Shotgun) 74-S.Anderson reported in as eligible. 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 80-D.Washington to CLE 36 for 36 yards (7-T.Campbell). FUMBLES (7-T.Campbell), ball out of bounds at CLE 27.
1st · 6:50PIT +6% win prob(6:50) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass deep right to 4-D.Metcalf pushed ob at PIT 39 for 25 yards (7-T.Campbell).
3rd · 4:13PIT +5% win prob(4:13) 25-A.Szmyt 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.
1st · 2:28CLE +5% win prob(2:28) 8-D.Gabriel sacked at CLE 41 for -7 yards (5-J.Ramsey).
3rd · 11:59PIT +4% win prob(11:59) 3-C.Waitman punts 46 yards to CLE 27, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 84-G.Larvadain to CLE 35 for 8 yards (42-J.Pierre; 15-B.Skowronek). PENALTY on CLE-99-C.Thomas, Running Into the Kicker, 5 yards, enforced at PIT 27 - No Play.
3rd · 7:54PIT +4% win prob(7:54) 8-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 83-Co.Heyward for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Chris Boswell's 44-yard field goal with 10:59 left in the 1st put Pittsburgh Steelers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Lead
1st10:59Chris Boswell·44-yd field goal44-yard field goalholder C.Waitman · snap C.KuntzLead never changed again+30–3
2nd11:06Chris Boswell·50-yd field goal50-yard field goalholder C.Waitman · snap C.Kuntz+30–6
2nd3:43Chris Boswell·48-yd field goal48-yard field goalholder C.Waitman · snap C.Kuntz+30–9
2nd0:03Andre Szmyt·31-yd field goal31-yard field goalholder C.Bojorquez · snap R.Sunahara+33–9
4th9:33Andre Szmyt·32-yd field goal32-yard field goalholder C.Bojorquez · snap R.Sunahara+39–23
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Brownscategory by categorySteelers
Browns0–9Steelers
248Total yards335
3.3Yards per play6.1
36%Success rate42%
35%Third-down rate42%
0Red-zone touchdowns1
2Explosive plays10
16First downs18
6Sacks taken0
1Turnovers0
The read
Steelers ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.19Browns: −0.19 expected points added per play
+0.13Steelers: +0.13 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.24Browns: −0.24 expected points added per play
+0.30Steelers: +0.30 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.00Browns: −0.00 expected points added per play
−0.08Steelers: −0.08 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Browns ran 75 snaps at a 77% dropback rate against Steelers’s 55 at 56%. Red-zone trips: Browns 3, Steelers 2.
NoteSteelers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.13 expected points added per play vs -0.19.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
CLE's early-down pass rate, 74.1%, is past their previous high of 67.3% in week 1 — the highest of their 6 charted games through week 6.
A 2.1-swing turn from week 5.
54 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 17 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −9.5 vs their 19.1%, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (−1.11× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Steelers25.9%
leaned — got home · +10.0 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (+1.39× that swing) · 58 dropbacks
NotePIT's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 35.5%, 15.6 points above their season mean of 19.9% and 2.2 times their own 7.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Cleveland Browns
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
75Joel BitonioG · Every snap100%82 snaps
77Wyatt TellerG · Every snap100%82 snaps
55Ethan PocicC · Every snap100%82 snaps
8Dillon GabrielQB · Every snap100%82 snaps
68Cam RobinsonT · Full-time98%80 snaps
3Jerry JeudyWR · Full-time89%73 snaps
16Isaiah BondWR · Full-time87%71 snaps
44Harold Fannin Jr.TE · Full-time80%66 snaps
72KT LevestonT · Heavy rotation59%48 snaps
78Jack ConklinT · Rotational48%39 snaps
80Jamari ThrashWR · Rotational45%37 snaps
85David NjokuTE · Rotational44%36 snaps
34Jerome FordRB · Rotational40%33 snaps
10Quinshon JudkinsRB · Rotational40%33 snaps
86Blake WhiteheartTE · Rotational27%22 snaps
22Dylan SampsonRB · Situational18%15 snaps
84Gage LarvadainWR · Situational16%13 snaps
56Luke WyplerC · Situational4%3 snaps
74Teven JenkinsG · Situational2%2 snaps
83Malachi CorleyWR · Situational2%2 snaps
98Adin HuntingtonDT · Situational1%1 snap
Inactive · 6
Jarrick Bernard-ConverseCBMike Hall Jr.DTZak ZinterGRaheim SandersRBThayer Munford Jr.TCornelius LucasT
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Steelers attack right, the Browns attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Browns←Steelers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
C.Waitman punts+8% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(11:59) 3-C.Waitman punts 46 yards to CLE 27, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 84-G.Larvadain to CLE 35 for 8 yards (42-J.Pierre; 15-B.Skowronek). PENALTY on CLE-99-C.Thomas, Running Into the Kicker, 5 yards, enforced at PIT 27 - No Play.
Q3 11:59 · Steelers · 4th & 4 at PIT 27 · gained nothing · +2.96 EP · +8.0% win probability
169 snaps placed · 17 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 186 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 169 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 181. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was PIT moving 89 yards from the PIT 11 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PIT attacks right, CLE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
186 of 186 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
186
EPA per play
+0.00
Success rate
40%
Yards
583
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Browns1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR32-0.0578%
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR30-0.3690%
Steelers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR17+0.3759%
Steelers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR12-0.2358%
Steelers1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR10+0.0150%
Steelers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR10-0.0760%
Browns1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6-0.4733%
Steelers1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Browns1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Steelers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Browns0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR2——
Browns2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Steelers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
186 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
186 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
Browns0Steelers3
Field goal10 plays, from the Steelers 28 to the Browns 25
Punt9 plays, from the Browns 28 to the Browns 45
Punt7 plays, from the Steelers 10 to the Steelers 40
Punt9 plays, from the Browns 29 to midfield
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter51 plays
Browns0Steelers6
Field goal10 plays, from the Steelers 38 to the Browns 32
Punt5 plays, from the Browns 28 to the Browns 34
Browns0Steelers9
Field goal11 plays, from the Steelers 21 to the Browns 30
Browns3Steelers9
Field goal24 plays, from the Browns 15 to the Steelers 11
3rd quarter39 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Browns 22 to the Browns 31
Browns3Steelers15
Browns3Steelers16
Touchdown13 plays, from the Steelers 21 to the Browns 12
Browns6Steelers16
Field goal11 plays, from the Browns 31 to the Steelers 35
The period ended8 plays, from the Steelers 27 to the Browns 38
4th quarter58 plays
Browns6Steelers22
Browns6Steelers23
Touchdown2 plays
Browns9Steelers23
Field goal21 plays, from the Browns 32 to the Steelers 3
Punt6 plays, from the Steelers 28 to the Steelers 34
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Browns 30 to the Steelers 48
The period ended7 plays, from the Browns 42 to the Browns 34
Turnover on downs11 plays, from the Browns 44 to the Steelers 14
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Brownscategory by categorySteelers
Browns0
Steelers3
