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2025 Week 6 · Sun, Oct 12, 2025 · Bank of America Stadium
Final
CowboysDallas27
BY 3final margin
PanthersCarolina30
Dallas Cowboys 27 at Carolina Panthers 30. Final.
Cowboys -3 upset
The verdict · 2025 Week 6
Carolina Panthers 30, Cowboys 27 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 2:31, 4th and 4, on Hunter Renfrow — 25.6 win-probability points to the Panthers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 2:31 · 4th and 4
Hunter Renfrow
Panthers
(2:31) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 13-H.Renfrow to DAL 33 for 7 yards (26-D.Bland).
O 47.5 ✓
15.4 mph wind
Cowboys closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Carolina Panthers 30–27 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 2:31, Panthers +25.6% win probability on one snap. Played in 15.4 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
25.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Donovan WilsonCowboysQ1 2:13(2:13) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left intended for 4-T.McMillan INTERCEPTED by 6-D.Wilson at CAR 46. 6-D.Wilson ran ob at CAR 25 for 21 yards (79-I.Ekwonu). PENALTY on CAR-5-R.Dowdle, Unnecessary Roughness, 13 yards, enforced at CAR 25.
19.5pts
George PickensCowboysQ4 11:38(11:38) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep middle to 3-G.Pickens pushed ob at CAR 20 for 45 yards (26-C.Smith-Wade) [95-D.Brown].
18.9pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Panthers won this one — +0.20 expected points per carry, against Cowboys at -0.47 expected points per carry.
Panthersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Panthers won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Cowboys at 3 chunk plays.
Panthersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Panthers won this one — 58% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Cowboys at 40% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Panthersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Cowboys owned this one and still lost it — +0.52 expected points per dropback, against Panthers at +0.11 expected points per dropback.
Cowboysthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 12.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 20 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Panthers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Panthershigher on Cowboys157 of 170 plays carry both curves
(2:31) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 13-H.Renfrow to DAL 33 for 7 yards (26-D.Bland).
Swing +25.6 for PanthersExpected points +2.52 for PanthersThe model had Panthers 4 points higher than the market did.play 160
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 2:31CAR +26% win prob(2:31) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 13-H.Renfrow to DAL 33 for 7 yards (26-D.Bland).
1st · 2:13DAL +20% win prob(2:13) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left intended for 4-T.McMillan INTERCEPTED by 6-D.Wilson at CAR 46. 6-D.Wilson ran ob at CAR 25 for 21 yards (79-I.Ekwonu). PENALTY on CAR-5-R.Dowdle, Unnecessary Roughness, 13 yards, enforced at CAR 25.
4th · 11:38CAR +19% win prob(11:38) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep middle to 3-G.Pickens pushed ob at CAR 20 for 45 yards (26-C.Smith-Wade) [95-D.Brown].
3rd · 2:45CAR +17% win prob(2:45) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 3-G.Pickens for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 0:03CAR +17% win prob(:03) 10-R.Fitzgerald 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.
2nd · 11:35CAR +12% win prob(11:35) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep left to 4-T.McMillan for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN [41-D.Ezeiruaku].
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Ryan Fitzgerald's 33-yard field goal with 0:03 left in the 4th put Carolina Panthers ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st9:11Ryan Fitzgerald·31-yd field goal31-yard field goalholder S.Martin · snap J.Jansen+30–3
1st4:51Brandon Aubrey·23-yd field goal23-yard field goalholder B.Anger · snap T.Sieg+33–3
2nd15:00Hunter Luepke·3-yd TD catch3-yard touchdown catchfrom Dak Prescottfrom Dak Prescott+710–3
4th9:23Brandon Aubrey·28-yd field goal28-yard field goalholder B.Anger · snap T.Sieg+327–27
4th0:03Ryan Fitzgerald·33-yd field goal33-yard field goalholder S.Martin · snap J.JansenLead never changed again+327–30
11 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Cowboyscategory by categoryPanthers
Cowboys3–5Panthers
293Total yards413
5.6Yards per play6.7
40%Success rate58%
42%Third-down rate38%
2Red-zone touchdowns2
3Explosive plays9
13First downs25
0Sacks taken1
0Turnovers1
The read
Panthers ahead 5–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Cowboys, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.52 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.18Cowboys: +0.18 expected points added per play
+0.16Panthers: +0.16 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.52Cowboys: +0.52 expected points added per play
+0.11Panthers: +0.11 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.47Cowboys: −0.47 expected points added per play
+0.20Panthers: +0.20 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Cowboys ran 52 snaps at a 65% dropback rate against Panthers’s 62 at 44%. Red-zone trips: Cowboys 5, Panthers 5.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
CAR's play-action rate, 48.1%, was the highest of the 30 team-games charted in week 6 — 7.0 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of 31.6% in week 4.
2.5 times their own weekly swing above their number.
27 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.1 points.
CAR's blitz rate sent turned over: 15.0% in week 5 against 32.4% here — they sat back then and sent pressure now, a turn of 2.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
34 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.7 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -29 pts to 17 pts
right on their number · +2.0 vs their 16.5%, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (+0.27× that swing) · 27 dropbacks
Panthers5.9%
inside their normal wobble · −3.4 vs their 9.3%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (−0.63× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
NoteCAR's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 48.1%, 25.4 points above their season mean of 22.8% and 2.5 times their own 10.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Panthers attack right, the Cowboys attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Cowboys←Panthers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
B.Young pass+23% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(2:31) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 13-H.Renfrow to DAL 33 for 7 yards (26-D.Bland).
Q4 2:31 · Panthers · 4th & 4 at DAL 40 · gained 7 · +2.52 EP · +23.5% win probability
155 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 170 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 155 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 165. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
11 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was CAR moving 80 yards from the CAR 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CAR attacks right, DAL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
170 of 170 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
170
EPA per play
+0.15
Success rate
48%
Yards
702
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Panthers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR36+0.0750%
Cowboys1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR28+0.4379%
Panthers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR20+0.0230%
Cowboys1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10-0.0970%
Cowboys2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6-0.1833%
Panthers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Cowboys1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Cowboys2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Panthers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Cowboys2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Cowboys2 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
170 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
170 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Cowboys 26 to the Cowboys 32
Cowboys0Panthers3
Field goal8 plays, from the Panthers 24 to the Cowboys 13
Cowboys3Panthers3
Field goal11 plays, from the Cowboys 27 to the Panthers 5
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, dropped.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.6 seconds
Intercepted7 plays, from the Panthers 20 to the Panthers 41
The period ended5 plays, from the Panthers 12 to the Panthers 7
2nd quarter45 plays
Cowboys9Panthers3
Cowboys10Panthers3
Touchdown2 plays
Cowboys10Panthers9
Cowboys10Panthers10
Touchdown8 plays, from the Panthers 35 to the Cowboys 19
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.5 seconds
Cowboys16Panthers10
Cowboys17Panthers10
Touchdown18 plays, from the Cowboys 23 to the Panthers 19
Cowboys17Panthers13
Field goal14 plays, from the Panthers 34 to the Cowboys 36
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter39 plays
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, two backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.3 seconds
Cowboys17Panthers19
Cowboys17Panthers20
Touchdown6 plays, from the Panthers 20 to the Cowboys 36
Punt8 plays, from the Cowboys 20 to the Cowboys 40
Punt9 plays, from the Panthers 7 to the Panthers 33
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.5 seconds
Cowboys23Panthers20
Cowboys24Panthers20
Touchdown8 plays, from the Cowboys 27 to the Panthers 34
The period ended8 plays, from the Panthers 35 to the Cowboys 36
4th quarter49 plays
Cowboys24Panthers26
Cowboys24Panthers27
Touchdown7 plays, from the Cowboys 29 to the Cowboys 2
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.9 seconds
Cowboys27Panthers27
Field goal11 plays, from the Cowboys 30 to the Panthers 8
Punt7 plays, from the Panthers 18 to the Panthers 21
Punt4 plays
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.4 seconds
Cowboys27Panthers30
Field goal19 plays, from the Panthers 14 to the Cowboys 12
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
