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2025 Week 6 · Sun, Oct 12, 2025 · Bank of America Stadium

Dallas Cowboys

27

Carolina PanthersWinner

30

DAL -3 upsetO 47.5 ✓15 mph wind

Carolina Panthers 30–27 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 2:31, CAR +26% win probability on one snap. Played in 15 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3CAR ↑DAL ↓
Q4 · 2:31DAL 27 — CAR 27CAR ball · 4th & 4DAL 52%

(2:31) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 13-H.Renfrow to DAL 33 for 7 yards (26-D.Bland).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 2:31CAR +26% win prob(2:31) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 13-H.Renfrow to DAL 33 for 7 yards (26-D.Bland).
  2. Q1 · 2:13DAL +20% win prob(2:13) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left intended for 4-T.McMillan INTERCEPTED by 6-D.Wilson at CAR 46. 6-D.Wilson ran ob at CAR 25 for 21 yards (79-I.Ekwonu). PENALTY on CAR-5-R.Dowdle, Unnecessary Roughness, 13 yards, enforced at CAR 25.
  3. Q4 · 11:38CAR +19% win prob(11:38) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep middle to 3-G.Pickens pushed ob at CAR 20 for 45 yards (26-C.Smith-Wade) [95-D.Brown].
  4. Q3 · 2:45CAR +17% win prob(2:45) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 3-G.Pickens for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 9:11CAR Field goal

    (9:11) 10-R.Fitzgerald 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.

    Score after this play: DAL 0 — CAR 3
  2. Q1 · 4:51DAL Field goal

    (4:51) 17-B.Aubrey 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

    Score after this play: DAL 3 — CAR 3
  3. Q2 · 15:00DAL Touchdown

    (15:00) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 40-H.Luepke for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DAL 10 — CAR 3
  4. Q2 · 11:35CAR Touchdown

    (11:35) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep left to 4-T.McMillan for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN [41-D.Ezeiruaku]. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DAL 10 — CAR 10
  5. Q2 · 3:43DAL Touchdown

    (3:43) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep left to 87-J.Ferguson for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DAL 17 — CAR 10
  6. Q2 · 0:25CAR Field goal

    (:25) 10-R.Fitzgerald 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.

    Score after this play: DAL 17 — CAR 13
  7. Q3 · 13:27CAR Touchdown

    (13:27) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep left to 5-R.Dowdle for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DAL 17 — CAR 20
  8. Q3 · 2:45DAL Touchdown

    (2:45) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 3-G.Pickens for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DAL 24 — CAR 20
  9. Q4 · 12:24CAR Touchdown

    (12:24) 9-B.Young pass short right to 4-T.McMillan for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DAL 24 — CAR 27
  10. Q4 · 9:23DAL Field goal

    (9:23) 17-B.Aubrey 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

    Score after this play: DAL 27 — CAR 27
  11. Q4 · 0:03CAR Field goal

    (:03) 10-R.Fitzgerald 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.

    Score after this play: DAL 27 — CAR 30

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricCowboysPanthers
Offensive plays5262
Total yards293413 (edge)
Yards per play5.66.7 (edge)
Expected points added / play0.18 (edge)0.16
Success rate40%58% (edge)
Dropback rate65%44%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.52 (edge)0.11
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.470.20 (edge)
Third downs5/12 (edge)3/8
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)39 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps1325 (edge)
Sacks taken0 (edge)1
Turnovers0 (edge)1

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · DAL

Dak PrescottQB

25/34, 261 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

17.7 expected points added · +7.1% completion over expected

Passing · CAR

Bryce YoungQB

17/25, 199 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT

2.2 expected points added · +13.7% completion over expected

Rushing · CAR

Rico DowdleRB

30 att, 183 yds, 0 TD

5.9 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · DAL

Javonte WilliamsRB

13 att, 29 yds, 0 TD

-5.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · DAL

George PickensWR

9/11 for 168 yds, 1 TD

32% of team targets · 16.7 expected points added

Receiving · CAR

Rico DowdleRB

4/5 for 56 yds, 1 TD

24% of team targets · 3.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1DALDAL 26561:43Punt
2CARCAR 248634:09Field goal +3
3DALDAL 2711684:20Field goal +3
4CARCAR 207212:43Interception
5DALCAR 125172:09Touchdown +7
6CARCAR 358653:27Touchdown +7
7DALDAL 2315707:50Touchdown +7
8CARCAR 3410293:19Field goal +3
9DALDAL 20200:20End of half
10CARCAR 206801:41Touchdown +7
11DALDAL 207203:35Punt
12CARCAR 77254:16Punt
13DALDAL 277582:50Touchdown +7
14CARCAR 3512655:18Touchdown +7
15DALDAL 3011623:00Field goal +3
16CARCAR 18531:02Punt
17DALDAL 464-82:11Punt
18CARCAR 1415626:07Field goal +3

11 of 18 drives ended in points. Longest march: Panthers gained 80 scrimmage yards over 6 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Dallas Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Dak Prescott25/3426130017.7

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Javonte Williams13292.20-5.5
Ryan Flournoy133.00-0.4
Jaydon Blue300.00-1.7
Dak Prescott2-1-0.50-0.8

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
George Pickens911168132%16.7
Jake Ferguson333319%4.7
Ryan Flournoy3630018%-1.7
Luke Schoonmaker12806%-0.3
Jalen Tolbert11803%0.7
Hunter Luepke22716%2.4
Javonte Williams585024%-4.3
Brevyn Spann-Ford11203%-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Shemar James650.000
Kenneth Murray, Jr.430.000
Donovan Wilson510.011
James Houston230.000
Reddy Steward320.000
Marist Liufau401.000
Sam Williams400.000
Juanyeh Thomas120.000
Trevon Diggs210.000
Marshawn Kneeland210.000

Carolina Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Bryce Young17/251993112.2

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Rico Dowdle301836.105.9
Trevor Etienne3175.702.2
Jimmy Horn Jr.11111.000.9
Bryce Young351.70-0.3
DeeJay Dallas100.00-2.0

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Rico Dowdle4556124%3.0
Tommy Tremble4439019%1.6
Jimmy Horn Jr.2236010%2.1
Tetairoa McMillan3529224%-3.4
Mitchell Evans112105%1.0
Xavier Legette2211010%-0.2
Hunter Renfrow127010%2.0

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Christian Rozeboom330.000
Trevin Wallace240.001
Princely Umanmielen220.000
Mike Jackson400.000
Nick Scott310.001
Tre'von Moehrig310.000
Chau Smith-Wade300.000
A'Shawn Robinson210.002
Derrick Brown210.000
D.J. Wonnum210.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
DAL -3
Closing total
47.5
DAL moneyline
-175
CAR moneyline
+145

Cowboys closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 47.5; the game landed 57 — over by 9.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Bank of America Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
68°F, wind 15 mph
Referee
John Hussey
Rest
DAL 7 days · CAR 7 days
Coaches
Brian Schottenheimer vs Dave Canales

Wind at 15 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.