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polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:41 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2025 Week 6 · Sun, Oct 12, 2025 · Bank of America Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2025 Week 6
It turned at Q4 2:31, 4th and 4, on Hunter Renfrow — 25.6 win-probability points to the Panthers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Carolina Panthers 30–27 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 2:31, Panthers +25.6% win probability on one snap. Played in 15.4 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 2:31 · 4th and 4
Hunter Renfrow
Panthers
(2:31) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 13-H.Renfrow to DAL 33 for 7 yards (26-D.Bland).
25.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Running the ball
Panthers won this one — +0.20 expected points per carry, against Cowboys at -0.47 expected points per carry.
Panthersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Panthers won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Cowboys at 3 chunk plays.
Panthersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Panthers won this one — 58% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Cowboys at 40% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Panthersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Cowboys owned this one and still lost it — +0.52 expected points per dropback, against Panthers at +0.11 expected points per dropback.
Cowboysthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 12.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 20 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Panthers.
(2:31) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 13-H.Renfrow to DAL 33 for 7 yards (26-D.Bland).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Ryan Fitzgerald's 33-yard field goal with 0:03 left in the 4th put Carolina Panthers ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Ryan Fitzgerald33-yd field goal33-yard field goalholder S.Martin · snap J.JansenLead never changed again+327–3011 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Cowboyscategory by categoryPanthers
Panthers ahead 5–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Cowboys, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.52 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Cowboys ran 52 snaps at a 65% dropback rate against Panthers’s 62 at 44%. Red-zone trips: Cowboys 5, Panthers 5.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
CAR's play-action rate, 48.1%, was the highest of the 30 team-games charted in week 6 — 7.0 points clear of the next team along.
27 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.1 points. · +2.5σ from their own normal
CAR's early-down pass rate, 37.7%, is past their previous low of 41.5% in week 3 — the lowest of their 6 charted games through week 6.
53 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 13.6 points. · −1.1σ from their own normal
CAR's blitz rate sent turned over: 15.0% in week 5 against 32.4% here — they sat back then and sent pressure now, a turn of 2.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
34 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.7 points. · +0.5σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -29 pts to 17 pts
Over Expected room →Cowboys2.2 ptsinside their normal wobble · +3.1 vs their -0.9 pts, and they swing ±4.8 week to week (+0.65× that swing) · 52 snaps
Panthers-11.1 ptsinside their normal wobble · −5.2 vs their -5.9 pts, and they swing ±9.1 week to week (−0.57× that swing) · 62 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 18% to 88%
Tendencies room →Cowboys55.3%right on their number · +0.1 vs their 55.2%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (+0.01× that swing) · 38 early downs
Panthers37.7%leaned — ran early · −15.2 vs their 52.9%, and they swing ±13.6 week to week (−1.11× that swing) · 53 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 52%
Tendencies room →Cowboys29.4%right on their number · +1.9 vs their 27.5%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (+0.26× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Panthers48.1%off script — faked the run · +25.4 vs their 22.8%, and they swing ±10.1 week to week (+2.52× that swing) · 27 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 3% to 109%
Fourth Down room →Cowboys50.0%right on their number · −2.9 vs their 52.9%, and they swing ±19.4 week to week (−0.15× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
Panthers—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 68.0%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 58%
Tendencies room →Cowboys25.9%right on their number · −1.3 vs their 27.2%, and they swing ±12.1 week to week (−0.11× that swing) · 27 dropbacks
Panthers32.4%right on their number · +4.0 vs their 28.3%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (+0.46× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -6% to 36%
Tendencies room →Cowboys18.5%right on their number · +2.0 vs their 16.5%, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (+0.27× that swing) · 27 dropbacks
Panthers5.9%inside their normal wobble · −3.4 vs their 9.3%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (−0.63× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
CAR's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 48.1%, 25.4 points above their season mean of 22.8% and 2.5 times their own 10.1-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Dallas Cowboys
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Carolina Panthers
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · DAL
25/34, 261 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT
17.7 expected points added · +7.1% completion over expected
Passing · CAR
17/25, 199 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT
2.2 expected points added · +13.7% completion over expected
Receiving · DAL
9/11 for 168 yds, 1 TD
32% of team targets · 16.7 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
George Pickens banked 13.2 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rico DowdleRB · Bell Cow Back | 33.9 | +11.8 | 88% | 93% | 24% | 19% | 30 car, 183 yd · 4/5, 56 yd, 1 TD |
| George PickensWR · Alpha Receiver | 31.8 | +13.2 | 84% | 91% | 32% | 63% | 9/11, 168 yd, 1 TD |
| Dak PrescottQB · Starter QB | 22.3 | +1.4 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 25/34, 261 yd, 3 TD · 2 car, -1 yd |
| Bryce YoungQB · Starter QB | 18.5 | +6.5 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 17/25, 199 yd, 3 TD, 1 INT · 3 car, 5 yd |
| Tetairoa McMillanWR · Featured Receiver | 17.9 | +7.2 | 93% | 96% | 24% | 38% | 3/5, 29 yd, 2 TD |
| Jake FergusonTE · Rotational Receiver | 12.3 | +4.8 | 67% | 85% | 9% | 16% | 3/3, 33 yd, 1 TD |
| Hunter LuepkeRB | 8.7 | +2.6 | 27% | 21% | 6% | 0% | 2/2, 7 yd, 1 TD |
| Javonte WilliamsRB · Bell Cow Back | 8.4 | −12.8 | 85% | 85% | 24% | 0% | 13 car, 29 yd · 5/8, 5 yd |
| Tommy TrembleTE · Featured Receiver | 7.9 | +2.1 | 73% | 78% | 19% | 5% | 4/4, 39 yd |
| Jimmy Horn Jr.WR · Rotational Receiver | 6.7 | +3.4 | 21% | 19% | 10% | 17% | 1 car, 11 yd · 2/2, 36 yd |
| Ryan FlournoyWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.3 | −5.1 | 69% | 74% | 18% | 8% | 1 car, 3 yd · 3/6, 30 yd |
| Mitchell EvansTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.1 | +0.8 | 58% | 48% | 5% | 12% | 1/1, 21 yd |
| Xavier LegetteWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.1 | +0.3 | 73% | 93% | 10% | 0% | 2/2, 11 yd |
| Jalen TolbertWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.8 | +0.5 | 91% | 97% | 3% | 2% | 1/1, 8 yd |
| Luke SchoonmakerTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.8 | −3.0 | 36% | 26% | 6% | 12% | 1/2, 8 yd |
| Trevor EtienneRB | 1.7 | −0.3 | 12% | 7% | 0% | — | 3 car, 17 yd |
| Hunter RenfrowWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.7 | −1.3 | 27% | 37% | 10% | 9% | 1/2, 7 yd |
| Brevyn Spann-FordTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.2 | −0.3 | 18% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 1/1, 2 yd |
| DeeJay DallasRB | 0.0 | −0.7 | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Parris CampbellWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Jalen Moreno-CropperWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash. |
| Jaydon BlueRB | 0.0 | −1.4 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Panthers attack right, the Cowboys attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(2:31) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 13-H.Renfrow to DAL 33 for 7 yards (26-D.Bland).
Q4 2:31 · Panthers · 4th & 4 at DAL 40 · gained 7 · +2.52 EP · +23.5% win probability
155 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 170 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 155 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 165. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
11 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was CAR moving 80 yards from the CAR 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CAR attacks right, DAL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
170 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
170 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Cowboys0
Panthers3Cowboys3Panthers3How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, dropped.
Cowboys9Panthers3Cowboys10Panthers3Cowboys10Panthers9Cowboys10Panthers10How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Cowboys16Panthers10Cowboys17Panthers10Cowboys17Panthers13How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
Cowboys17Panthers19Cowboys17Panthers20How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Cowboys23Panthers20Cowboys24Panthers20Cowboys24Panthers26Cowboys24Panthers27How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Cowboys27Panthers27How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Cowboys27Panthers30Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Cowboys at Panthers, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 25/34 | 261 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +17.7 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javonte Williams | 13 | 29 | 2.2 | 0 | −5.5 |
| Ryan Flournoy | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | −0.4 |
| Jaydon Blue |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Pickens | 9 | 11 | 168 | 1 | 32% | +16.7 |
| Jake Ferguson | 3 | 3 | 33 | 1 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shemar James | 6 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kenneth Murray, Jr. | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Donovan Wilson |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Young | 17/25 | 199 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +2.2 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2025_06_DAL_CAR
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Cowboys closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 47.5; the game landed 57 — over by 9.5.
Conditions and crew
Wind at 15.4 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.
| 3 |
| 0 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| −1.7 |
| Dak Prescott | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 | −0.8 |
| 9% |
| +4.7 |
| Ryan Flournoy | 3 | 6 | 30 | 0 | 18% | −1.7 |
| Luke Schoonmaker | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 6% | −0.3 |
| Jalen Tolbert | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 3% | +0.7 |
| Hunter Luepke | 2 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 6% | +2.4 |
| Javonte Williams | 5 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 24% | −4.3 |
| Brevyn Spann-Ford | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3% | −0.5 |
| 5 |
| 1 |
| 0.0 |
| 1 |
| 1 |
| James Houston | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Reddy Steward | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marist Liufau | 4 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sam Williams | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| DaRon Bland | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Juanyeh Thomas | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marshawn Kneeland | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rico Dowdle | 30 | 183 | 6.1 | 0 | +5.9 |
| Trevor Etienne | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 | +2.2 |
| Jimmy Horn Jr. | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 | +0.9 |
| Bryce Young | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 | −0.3 |
| DeeJay Dallas | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | −2.0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rico Dowdle | 4 | 5 | 56 | 1 | 24% | +3.0 |
| Tommy Tremble | 4 | 4 | 39 | 0 | 19% | +1.6 |
| Jimmy Horn Jr. | 2 | 2 | 36 | 0 | 10% | +2.1 |
| Tetairoa McMillan | 3 | 5 | 29 | 2 | 24% | −3.4 |
| Mitchell Evans | 1 | 1 | 21 | 0 | 5% | +1.0 |
| Xavier Legette | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 10% | −0.2 |
| Hunter Renfrow | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 10% | +2.0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevin Wallace | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Christian Rozeboom | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tre'von Moehrig | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Princely Umanmielen | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Jackson | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick Scott | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Patrick Jones II | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chau Smith-Wade | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| A'Shawn Robinson | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Derrick Brown | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
