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polling · 1800s tick · as of 10:09 AM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2025 Week 6 · Sun, Oct 12, 2025 · MetLife Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2025 Week 6
It turned at Q4 1:14, 4th and 8, on Justin Fields — 21.8 win-probability points to the Broncos on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Denver Broncos 13–11 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 1:14, Broncos +21.8% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 1:14 · 4th and 8
Justin Fields
Broncos
(1:14) (Shotgun) 7-J.Fields sacked at NYJ 44 for -12 yards (sack split by 0-J.Cooper and 22-B.Jones).
21.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Broncos won this one — +0.03 expected points per dropback, against Jets at -0.73 expected points per dropback.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Broncos won this one — 6 of 15 on third down, against Jets at 2 of 15 on third down.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Broncos won this one — 1 touchdown on 2 trips, against Jets at 0 touchdowns on 2 trips.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Broncos won this one — -0.09 expected points per snap, against Jets at -0.42 expected points per snap.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 21.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 38 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jets.
(1:14) (Shotgun) 7-J.Fields sacked at NYJ 44 for -12 yards (sack split by 0-J.Cooper and 22-B.Jones).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Wil Lutz's 27-yard field goal with 5:09 left in the 4th put Denver Broncos ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Jetssafetysafetytwo points, and the ball back+210–11
Wil Lutz27-yd field goal27-yard field goalholder J.Crawshaw · snap M.FraboniLead never changed again+313–117 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Broncoscategory by categoryJets
Broncos ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.73 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Broncos ran 55 snaps at a 60% dropback rate against Jets’s 57 at 51%. Red-zone trips: Broncos 2, Jets 2.
Broncos won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.09 expected points added per play vs -0.42.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
DEN's sack or hit rate, 37.9%, was the highest of the 30 team-games charted in week 6 — 9.7 points clear of the next team along.
29 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.7 points. · +1.8σ from their own normal
NYJ's pass rate over expected, −18.5 pts, was the lowest of the 30 team-games charted in week 6 — 4.4 points clear of the next team along.
57 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.5 points. · −1.1σ from their own normal
DEN's pass rate over expected, −5.7 pts, is past their previous low of −1.9 pts in week 3 — the lowest of their 6 charted games through week 6.
55 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.3 points. · −1.6σ from their own normal
DEN's play-action rate, 36.4%, is past their previous high of 31.8% in week 5 — the highest of their 6 charted games through week 6.
33 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.3 points. · +1.5σ from their own normal
DEN's blitz rate sent, 44.8%, is past their previous high of 42.1% in week 2 — the highest of their 6 charted games through week 6.
29 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.3 points. · +1.4σ from their own normal
DEN's early-down pass rate, 48.7%, is past their previous low of 50.8% in week 4 — the lowest of their 6 charted games through week 6.
39 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.0 points. · −1.0σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -31 pts to 14 pts
Over Expected room →Broncos-5.7 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −7.0 vs their 1.4 pts, and they swing ±4.3 week to week (−1.63× that swing) · 55 snaps
Jets-18.5 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −9.2 vs their -9.3 pts, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (−1.08× that swing) · 57 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 24% to 86%
Tendencies room →Broncos48.7%leaned — ran early · −7.3 vs their 56.0%, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (−1.04× that swing) · 39 early downs
Jets37.5%leaned — ran early · −17.2 vs their 54.7%, and they swing ±12.1 week to week (−1.43× that swing) · 40 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 2% to 45%
Tendencies room →Broncos36.4%leaned — faked the run · +12.3 vs their 24.0%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (+1.49× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Jets13.8%inside their normal wobble · −4.0 vs their 17.8%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (−0.67× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -34% to 114%
Fourth Down room →Broncos25.0%right on their number · −10.7 vs their 35.7%, and they swing ±27.2 week to week (−0.39× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
Jets33.3%right on their number · −10.7 vs their 44.0%, and they swing ±27.0 week to week (−0.40× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 4% to 56%
Tendencies room →Broncos44.8%leaned — sent pressure · +14.7 vs their 30.1%, and they swing ±10.3 week to week (+1.43× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Jets24.2%inside their normal wobble · −5.5 vs their 29.8%, and they swing ±9.2 week to week (−0.61× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -8% to 45%
Tendencies room →Broncos37.9%leaned — got home · +15.4 vs their 22.5%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (+1.77× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Jets9.1%right on their number · −0.7 vs their 9.8%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (−0.10× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
DEN's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 37.9%, 15.4 points above their season mean of 22.5% and 1.8 times their own 8.7-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Denver Broncos
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
New York Jets
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · DEN
Bo NixQB
19/30, 174 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
5.1 expected points added · +3.5% completion over expected
Passing · NYJ
9/17, 45 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
-20.7 expected points added · -14.8% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Nate Adkins banked 6.4 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo NixQB · Starter QB | 13.4 | −0.8 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 19/30, 174 yd, 1 TD · 5 car, 24 yd |
| Nate AdkinsTE · Rotational Receiver | 10.3 | +6.4 | 38% | 30% | 8% | 12% | 2/2, 23 yd, 1 TD |
| Evan EngramTE · Featured Receiver | 9.9 | +0.5 | 47% | 52% | 23% | 21% | 1 car, 7 yd · 5/6, 42 yd |
| RJ HarveyRB · Receiving Back | 6.5 | −0.1 | 28% | 33% | 15% | 0% | 2 car, 4 yd · 4/4, 21 yd |
| Breece HallRB · Bell Cow Back | 5.9 | −4.8 | 74% | 59% | 0% | — | 22 car, 59 yd |
| Josh ReynoldsWR · Featured Receiver | 5.5 | +1.2 | 88% | 93% | 19% | 23% | 3/3, 25 yd |
| Justin FieldsQB · Starter QB | 4.9 | −3.0 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 9/17, 45 yd · 7 car, 31 yd |
| Marvin Mims Jr.WR · Rotational Receiver | 4.8 | −2.4 | 35% | 45% | 12% | 41% | 1 car, -2 yd · 2/3, 30 yd |
| Garrett WilsonWR · Alpha Receiver | 4.3 | −6.6 | 84% | 83% | 50% | 45% | 3/8, 13 yd |
| Pat BryantWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.2 | +1.3 | 58% | 58% | 8% | 7% | 2/2, 22 yd |
| J.K. DobbinsRB · Committee Back | 4.0 | −4.8 | 50% | 39% | 4% | 0% | 14 car, 40 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Troy FranklinWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.1 | −3.2 | 58% | 70% | 15% | 14% | 1 car, 2 yd · 3/4, 19 yd |
| Courtland SuttonWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.7 | −3.2 | 80% | 94% | 12% | 21% | 1/3, 17 yd |
| Andrew BeckRB | 1.6 | +0.2 | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Mason TaylorTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.2 | −0.1 | 96% | 97% | 6% | 2% | 1/1, 2 yd |
| Isaiah DavisRB | 1.1 | −1.0 | 26% | 41% | 6% | 0% | 2 car, 2 yd · 1/1, -1 yd |
| Adam PrenticeRB | 0.3 | −0.4 | 18% | 9% | 0% | — | 1 car, 3 yd |
| Jaleel McLaughlinRB | 0.0 | −2.0 | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Jeremy RuckertTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 39% | 21% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Stone SmarttTE | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Arian SmithWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.0 | 60% | 76% | 6% | 31% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Tyler JohnsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.4 | 19% | 24% | 6% | 0% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Isaiah WilliamsWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Kene NwangwuRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Jets attack right, the Broncos attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(1:14) (Shotgun) 7-J.Fields sacked at NYJ 44 for -12 yards (sack split by 0-J.Cooper and 22-B.Jones).
Q4 1:14 · Jets · 4th & 8 at DEN 44 · lost 12 · -1.94 EP · −29.9% win probability
149 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 164 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 149 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 159. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
6 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was DEN moving 69 yards from the DEN 31 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NYJ attacks right, DEN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
164 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
164 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Broncos0
Jets3Broncos3Jets3Broncos3Jets6How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Broncos9Jets6Broncos10Jets6How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Broncos10Jets9Broncos10Jets11How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
Broncos13Jets11How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
How the play was built
A man in motion.
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Broncos at Jets, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Nix | 19/30 | 174 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +5.1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.K. Dobbins | 14 | 40 | 2.9 | 0 | −2.8 |
| Bo Nix | 5 | 24 | 4.8 | 0 | +0.2 |
| Evan Engram |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evan Engram | 5 | 6 | 42 | 0 | 23% | +6.0 |
| Marvin Mims Jr. | 2 | 3 | 30 | 0 | 12% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Jones | 3 | 4 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Nik Bonitto | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Riley Moss |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Fields | 9/17 | 45 | 0 | 0 | 9 | −20.7 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2025_06_DEN_NYJ
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Broncos closed -7.5, won by 2 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 43.5; the game landed 24 — under by 19.5.
Conditions and crew
| 1 |
| 7 |
| 7.0 |
| 0 |
| +0.3 |
| RJ Harvey | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 | −0.7 |
| Adam Prentice | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | −1.0 |
| Troy Franklin | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | −0.9 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | −0.7 |
| Marvin Mims Jr. | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 | −0.8 |
| +1.9 |
| Nate Adkins | 2 | 2 | 23 | 1 | 8% | +2.7 |
| Pat Bryant | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 | 8% | +2.2 |
| RJ Harvey | 4 | 4 | 21 | 0 | 15% | −2.6 |
| Troy Franklin | 3 | 4 | 19 | 0 | 15% | −3.3 |
| Courtland Sutton | 1 | 3 | 17 | 0 | 12% | −0.2 |
| J.K. Dobbins | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −1.5 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −1.5 |
| 5 |
| 1 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Justin Strnad | 2 | 4 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Alex Singleton | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathon Cooper | 2 | 3 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Talanoa Hufanga | 4 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Ja'Quan McMillian | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Malcolm Roach | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eyioma Uwazurike | 3 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Breece Hall | 22 | 59 | 2.7 | 0 | −3.2 |
| Justin Fields | 7 | 31 | 4.4 | 0 | +0.8 |
| Isaiah Davis | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | −0.8 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Reynolds | 3 | 3 | 25 | 0 | 19% | +1.9 |
| Garrett Wilson | 3 | 8 | 13 | 0 | 50% | −5.4 |
| Andrew Beck | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 6% | +0.4 |
| Mason Taylor | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6% | −0.5 |
| Arian Smith | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6% | −1.3 |
| Tyler Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6% | −0.9 |
| Isaiah Davis | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 6% | −1.1 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamien Sherwood | 6 | 7 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Francisco Mauigoa | 2 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Andre Cisco | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jarvis Brownlee Jr. | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jermaine Johnson II | 4 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Malachi Moore | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Isaiah Oliver | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sauce Gardner | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Will McDonald IV | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Andrew Beck | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
