For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 21.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 38 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jets.
MarketModelmodel higher on Jetshigher on Broncos151 of 164 plays carry both curves
(1:14) (Shotgun) 7-J.Fields sacked at NYJ 44 for -12 yards (sack split by 0-J.Cooper and 22-B.Jones).
Swing −21.8 for JetsExpected points −1.94 for JetsThe model had Jets 10 points higher than the market did.play 161
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 1:14DEN +22% win prob(1:14) (Shotgun) 7-J.Fields sacked at NYJ 44 for -12 yards (sack split by 0-J.Cooper and 22-B.Jones).
4th · 8:15NYJ +16% win prob(8:15) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short left to 19-M.Mims pushed ob at NYJ 34 for 26 yards (8-A.Cisco).
4th · 3:19DEN +14% win prob(3:19) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix sacked at DEN 11 for -6 yards (11-J.Johnson).
3rd · 5:02DEN +13% win prob(5:02) (Shotgun) 63-A.Palczewski reported in as eligible. 10-B.Nix pass incomplete deep right to 11-T.Franklin. PENALTY on DEN-77-Q.Meinerz, Offensive Holding, 3 yards, enforced in End Zone, SAFETY - No Play. Penalty on DEN-11-T.Franklin, Offensive Pass Interference, declined.
4th · 1:56DEN +10% win prob(1:56) (Shotgun) 7-J.Fields sacked at NYJ 49 for -5 yards (40-J.Strnad).
4th · 4:19DEN +9% win prob(4:19) (Shotgun) 7-J.Fields sacked at NYJ 26 for -7 yards (sack split by 15-N.Bonitto and 99-Z.Allen).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Wil Lutz's 27-yard field goal with 5:09 left in the 4th put Denver Broncos ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st11:05Nick Folk·52-yd field goal52-yard field goalholder A.McNamara · snap T.Hennessy+30–3
1st7:08Wil Lutz·57-yd field goal57-yard field goalholder J.Crawshaw · snap M.Fraboni+33–3
1st4:59Nick Folk·41-yd field goal41-yard field goalholder A.McNamara · snap T.Hennessy+33–6
1st0:02Nate Adkins·16-yd TD catch16-yard touchdown catchfrom Bo Nixfrom Bo Nix+710–6
3rd10:29Nick Folk·38-yd field goal38-yard field goalholder A.McNamara · snap T.Hennessy+310–9
3rd5:02Jets·safetysafetytwo points, and the ball backtwo points, and the ball back+210–11
4th5:09Wil Lutz·27-yd field goal27-yard field goalholder J.Crawshaw · snap M.FraboniLead never changed again+313–11
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Broncoscategory by categoryJets
Broncos8–0Jets
248Total yards82
4.5Yards per play1.4
35%Success rate25%
40%Third-down rate13%
1Red-zone touchdowns0
2Explosive plays0
13First downs8
1Sacks taken9
1Turnovers1
The read
Broncos ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.73 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.09Broncos: −0.09 expected points added per play
−0.42Jets: −0.42 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.03Broncos: +0.03 expected points added per play
−0.73Jets: −0.73 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.25Broncos: −0.25 expected points added per play
−0.10Jets: −0.10 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Broncos ran 55 snaps at a 60% dropback rate against Jets’s 57 at 51%. Red-zone trips: Broncos 2, Jets 2.
NoteBroncos won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.09 expected points added per play vs -0.42.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
DEN's sack or hit rate, 37.9%, was the highest of the 30 team-games charted in week 6 — 9.7 points clear of the next team along.
A 2.1-swing turn from week 5.
29 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.7 points.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
NYJ's pass rate over expected, −18.5 pts, was the lowest of the 30 team-games charted in week 6 — 4.4 points clear of the next team along.
A 2.8-swing turn from week 5.
57 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.5 points.
DEN's early-down pass rate, 48.7%, is past their previous low of 50.8% in week 4 — the lowest of their 6 charted games through week 6.
39 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -31 pts to 14 pts
leaned — got home · +15.4 vs their 22.5%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (+1.77× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Jets9.1%
right on their number · −0.7 vs their 9.8%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (−0.10× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
NoteDEN's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 37.9%, 15.4 points above their season mean of 22.5% and 1.8 times their own 8.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Jets attack right, the Broncos attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Broncos←Jets→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Fields sacked−30% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(1:14) (Shotgun) 7-J.Fields sacked at NYJ 44 for -12 yards (sack split by 0-J.Cooper and 22-B.Jones).
Q4 1:14 · Jets · 4th & 8 at DEN 44 · lost 12 · -1.94 EP · −29.9% win probability
149 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 164 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 149 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 159. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was DEN moving 69 yards from the DEN 31 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NYJ attacks right, DEN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
164 of 164 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
164
EPA per play
-0.12
Success rate
34%
Yards
328
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Jets1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR33-0.5964%
Broncos1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR31-0.1765%
Jets1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR16-0.2925%
Broncos1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6-0.0350%
Broncos0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR5+0.4860%
Broncos2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR5+0.0340%
Jets1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Broncos1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Broncos1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Jets2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Broncos2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Broncos2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Broncos2 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR1——
Jets3 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Jets2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
164 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
164 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Broncos 22 to the Broncos 25
Broncos0Jets3
Field goal5 plays, from the Broncos 37 to the Broncos 34
Broncos3Jets3
Field goal9 plays, from the Broncos 38 to the Jets 39
Broncos3Jets6
Field goal5 plays, from the Broncos 24 to the Broncos 22
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.2 seconds
Broncos9Jets6
Broncos10Jets6
Touchdown12 plays, from the Broncos 31 to the Jets 16
2nd quarter44 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Jets 26 to the Jets 31
Punt10 plays, from the Broncos 21 to the Jets 49
Punt5 plays, from the Jets 20 to the Jets 21
Punt8 plays, from the Broncos 41 to the Jets 39
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
The period ended16 plays, from the Jets 16 to the Jets 43
3rd quarter37 plays
Broncos10Jets9
Field goal11 plays, from the Jets 43 to the Broncos 20
Punt5 plays, from the Broncos 23 to the Broncos 29
Punt7 plays, from the Jets 42 to the Broncos 44
Broncos10Jets11
Punt5 plays, from the Jets 36 to the Jets 41
Punt4 plays, from the Broncos 18 to the Broncos 21
The period ended4 plays, from the Jets 24 to the Jets 28
4th quarter46 plays
Punt1 play
Punt4 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Broncos 29
The period ended7 plays, from the Jets 10 to the Jets 30
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one tight end and four receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runWheelCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.8 seconds
Broncos13Jets11
Field goal12 plays, from the Broncos 26 to the Jets 9
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Punt5 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Punt6 plays, from the Broncos 16 to the Broncos 19
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerSevenPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Jets 43 to the Broncos 44
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
