2025 Week 6 · Sun, Oct 12, 2025 · MetLife Stadium
Denver BroncosWinner
13
New York Jets
11
Denver Broncos 13–11 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 1:14, DEN +22% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
Win probability
(1:14) (Shotgun) 7-J.Fields sacked at NYJ 44 for -12 yards (sack split by 0-J.Cooper and 22-B.Jones).
Highest-leverage plays
- Q4 · 1:14DEN +22% win prob(1:14) (Shotgun) 7-J.Fields sacked at NYJ 44 for -12 yards (sack split by 0-J.Cooper and 22-B.Jones).
- Q4 · 8:15NYJ +16% win prob(8:15) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short left to 19-M.Mims pushed ob at NYJ 34 for 26 yards (8-A.Cisco).
- Q4 · 3:19DEN +14% win prob(3:19) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix sacked at DEN 11 for -6 yards (11-J.Johnson).
- Q3 · 5:02DEN +13% win prob(5:02) (Shotgun) 63-A.Palczewski reported in as eligible. 10-B.Nix pass incomplete deep right to 11-T.Franklin. PENALTY on DEN-77-Q.Meinerz, Offensive Holding, 3 yards, enforced in End Zone, SAFETY - No Play. Penalty on DEN-11-T.Franklin, Offensive Pass Interference, declined.
How the points landed
Scoring summary
- Q1 · 11:05NYJ Field goal
(11:05) 6-N.Folk 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.
Score after this play: DEN 0 — NYJ 3 - Q1 · 7:08DEN Field goal
(7:08) 3-W.Lutz 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.
Score after this play: DEN 3 — NYJ 3 - Q1 · 4:59NYJ Field goal
(4:59) 6-N.Folk 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.
Score after this play: DEN 3 — NYJ 6 - Q1 · 0:02DEN Touchdown
(:02) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 45-N.Adkins for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: DEN 10 — NYJ 6 - Q3 · 10:29NYJ Field goal
(10:29) 6-N.Folk 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.
Score after this play: DEN 10 — NYJ 9 - Q3 · 5:02NYJ Safety
(5:02) (Shotgun) 63-A.Palczewski reported in as eligible. 10-B.Nix pass incomplete deep right to 11-T.Franklin. PENALTY on DEN-77-Q.Meinerz, Offensive Holding, 3 yards, enforced in End Zone, SAFETY - No Play. Penalty on DEN-11-T.Franklin, Offensive Pass Interference, declined.
Score after this play: DEN 10 — NYJ 11 - Q4 · 5:09DEN Field goal
(5:09) 3-W.Lutz 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.
Score after this play: DEN 13 — NYJ 11
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
| Metric | Broncos | Jets |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 55 | 57 |
| Total yards | 248 (edge) | 82 |
| Yards per play | 4.5 (edge) | 1.4 |
| Expected points added / play | -0.09 (edge) | -0.42 |
| Success rate | 35% (edge) | 25% |
| Dropback rate | 60% | 51% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.03 (edge) | -0.73 |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.25 | -0.10 (edge) |
| Third downs | 6/15 (edge) | 2/15 |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 2 (edge) | 0 |
| First downs gained on snaps | 13 (edge) | 8 |
| Sacks taken | 1 (edge) | 9 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 1 |
Broncos won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.09 expected points added per play vs -0.42.
Who moved the needle
Top performers
Passing · DEN
Bo NixQB
19/30, 174 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
5.1 expected points added · +3.5% completion over expected
Passing · NYJ
9/17, 45 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
-20.7 expected points added · -14.8% completion over expected
Possession by possession
Drive chart
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DEN | DEN 22 | 4 | 10 | 1:38 | Fumble | |
| 2 | NYJ | DEN 37 | 4 | 8 | 2:22 | Field goal +3 | |
| 3 | DEN | DEN 38 | 8 | 28 | 3:57 | Field goal +3 | |
| 4 | NYJ | DEN 24 | 5 | 1 | 2:08 | Field goal +3 | |
| 5 | DEN | DEN 31 | 11 | 79 | 4:55 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 6 | NYJ | NYJ 26 | 5 | 5 | 1:36 | Punt | |
| 7 | DEN | DEN 21 | 10 | 30 | 4:06 | Punt | |
| 8 | NYJ | NYJ 20 | 4 | -13 | 1:33 | Punt | |
| 9 | DEN | DEN 41 | 6 | 28 | 4:23 | Punt | |
| 10 | NYJ | NYJ 16 | 10 | 31 | 3:22 | End of half | |
| 11 | NYJ | NYJ 43 | 11 | 37 | 4:35 | Field goal +3 | |
| 12 | DEN | DEN 23 | 5 | 6 | 1:37 | Punt | |
| 13 | NYJ | NYJ 42 | 7 | 13 | 3:46 | Punt | |
| 14 | DEN | DEN 3 | 0 | 0 | 0:06 | Safety | |
| 15 | NYJ | NYJ 36 | 5 | -3 | 2:15 | Punt | |
| 16 | DEN | DEN 18 | 4 | 3 | 1:38 | Punt | |
| 17 | NYJ | NYJ 24 | 4 | -4 | 1:10 | Fumble | |
| 18 | DEN | DEN 25 | 4 | 4 | 1:22 | Punt | |
| 19 | NYJ | NYJ 10 | 6 | 20 | 3:15 | Punt | |
| 20 | DEN | DEN 26 | 12 | 65 | 5:10 | Field goal +3 | |
| 21 | NYJ | NYJ 33 | 5 | -7 | 1:36 | Punt | |
| 22 | DEN | DEN 16 | 4 | -5 | 1:07 | Punt | |
| 23 | NYJ | NYJ 43 | 6 | -6 | 1:14 | Turnover on downs | |
| 24 | DEN | NYJ 44 | 2 | 0 | 1:09 | End of game |
6 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: Broncos gained 79 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.
Full stat lines
Box score
Denver Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Nix | 19/30 | 174 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5.1 |
Rushing
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.K. Dobbins | 14 | 40 | 2.9 | 0 | -2.8 |
| Bo Nix | 5 | 24 | 4.8 | 0 | 0.2 |
| Evan Engram | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 | 0.3 |
| RJ Harvey | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 | -0.7 |
| Adam Prentice | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | -1.0 |
| Troy Franklin | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | -0.9 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | -0.7 |
| Marvin Mims Jr. | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 | -0.8 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evan Engram | 5 | 6 | 42 | 0 | 23% | 6.0 |
| Marvin Mims Jr. | 2 | 3 | 30 | 0 | 12% | 1.9 |
| Nate Adkins | 2 | 2 | 23 | 1 | 8% | 2.7 |
| Pat Bryant | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 | 8% | 2.2 |
| RJ Harvey | 4 | 4 | 21 | 0 | 15% | -2.6 |
| Troy Franklin | 3 | 4 | 19 | 0 | 15% | -3.3 |
| Courtland Sutton | 1 | 3 | 17 | 0 | 12% | -0.2 |
| J.K. Dobbins | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | -1.5 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | -1.5 |
Defense (top contributors)
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Jones | 3 | 4 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Alex Singleton | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Justin Strnad | 2 | 4 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Nik Bonitto | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Riley Moss | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Talanoa Hufanga | 4 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jonathon Cooper | 2 | 3 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Malcolm Roach | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ja'Quan McMillian | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eyioma Uwazurike | 3 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
New York Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Fields | 9/17 | 45 | 0 | 0 | 9 | -20.7 |
Rushing
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breece Hall | 22 | 59 | 2.7 | 0 | -3.2 |
| Justin Fields | 7 | 31 | 4.4 | 0 | 0.8 |
| Isaiah Davis | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | -0.8 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Reynolds | 3 | 3 | 25 | 0 | 19% | 1.9 |
| Garrett Wilson | 3 | 8 | 13 | 0 | 50% | -5.4 |
| Andrew Beck | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 6% | 0.4 |
| Mason Taylor | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6% | -0.5 |
| Tyler Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6% | -0.9 |
| Arian Smith | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6% | -1.3 |
| Isaiah Davis | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 6% | -1.1 |
Defense (top contributors)
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamien Sherwood | 6 | 7 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Francisco Mauigoa | 2 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Andre Cisco | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jarvis Brownlee Jr. | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jermaine Johnson II | 4 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Isaiah Oliver | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Malachi Moore | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Will McDonald IV | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sauce Gardner | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Andrew Beck | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
Closing number vs result
Betting context
- Closing spread
- DEN -7.5
- Closing total
- 43.5
- DEN moneyline
- -395
- NYJ moneyline
- +310
Broncos closed -7.5, won by 2 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 43.5; the game landed 24 — under by 19.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
- Venue
- MetLife Stadium
- Roof / surface
- outdoors · grass
- Kickoff weather
- 59°F, wind 6 mph
- Referee
- Land Clark
- Rest
- DEN 7 days · NYJ 7 days
- Coaches
- Sean Payton vs Aaron Glenn