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2025 Week 6 · Sun, Oct 12, 2025 · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium

Detroit Lions

17

Kansas City ChiefsWinner

30

KC -2.5 ✓U 51.5 ✓

Kansas City Chiefs 30–17. Biggest swing: Q2 12:56, KC +12% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3KC ↑DET ↓
Q2 · 12:56DET 9 — KC 6DET ball · 3rd & 3KC 58%

(12:56) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 1-J.Williams for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC-20-N.Williams was injured during the play.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q2 · 12:56KC +12% win prob(12:56) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 1-J.Williams for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC-20-N.Williams was injured during the play.
  2. Q1 · 1:14KC +10% win prob(1:14) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 1-X.Worthy for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  3. Q2 · 1:00KC +9% win prob(1:00) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete deep right to 87-T.Kelce. PENALTY on DET-23-R.Ya-Sin, Defensive Pass Interference, 14 yards, enforced at DET 32 - No Play.
  4. Q1 · 4:03KC +8% win prob(4:03) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 9-J.Smith-Schuster to DET 24 for 30 yards (32-B.Branch).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 5:24DET Field goal

    (5:24) 39-J.Bates 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.

    Score after this play: DET 3 — KC 0
  2. Q1 · 1:14KC Touchdown

    (1:14) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 1-X.Worthy for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: DET 3 — KC 6
  3. Q2 · 12:56DET Touchdown

    (12:56) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 1-J.Williams for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC-20-N.Williams was injured during the play. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DET 10 — KC 6
  4. Q2 · 0:40KC Touchdown

    (:40) 66-M.Caliendo reported in as eligible. 15-P.Mahomes right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on DET-95-P.O'Connor, Defensive Offside, declined. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DET 10 — KC 13
  5. Q3 · 11:23KC Touchdown

    (11:23) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 5-M.Brown for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DET 10 — KC 20
  6. Q4 · 14:20DET Touchdown

    (14:20) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 87-S.LaPorta for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DET 17 — KC 20
  7. Q4 · 9:35KC Touchdown

    (9:35) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 5-M.Brown for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DET 17 — KC 27
  8. Q4 · 2:29KC Field goal

    (2:29) 7-H.Butker 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

    Score after this play: DET 17 — KC 30

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricLionsChiefs
Offensive plays5358
Total yards297358 (edge)
Yards per play5.66.2 (edge)
Expected points added / play0.110.27 (edge)
Success rate53%55% (edge)
Dropback rate58%66%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.250.39 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.090.04 (edge)
Third downs5/11 (edge)4/9
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)56 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps1824 (edge)
Sacks taken1 (edge)3
Turnovers00

Chiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.27 expected points added per play vs 0.11.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · KC

Patrick MahomesQB

22/30, 257 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

15.6 expected points added · +7.7% completion over expected

Passing · DET

Jared GoffQB

23/29, 203 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

6.7 expected points added · +14.2% completion over expected

Rushing · DET

Jahmyr GibbsRB

17 att, 65 yds, 0 TD

-1.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · KC

Isiah PachecoRB

12 att, 51 yds, 0 TD

-1.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · KC

Travis KelceTE

6/7 for 78 yds, 0 TD

25% of team targets · 8.7 expected points added

Receiving · DET

Jameson WilliamsWR

6/7 for 66 yds, 1 TD

26% of team targets · 3.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1DETDET 2916709:39Field goal +3
2KCKC 3010704:10Touchdown +6
3DETDET 298713:22Touchdown +7
4KCKC 3111505:54Turnover on downs
5DETDET 208364:13Turnover on downs
6KCKC 459412:05Touchdown +7
7DETDET 32580:27Punt
8KCKC 11100:10End of half
9KCKC 1910813:42Touchdown +7
10DETDET 269264:36Punt
11KCKC 77283:08Punt
12DETDET 199814:20Touchdown +7
13KCKC 3111544:44Touchdown +7
14DETDET 265-42:18Punt
15KCDET 4910344:46Field goal +3
16DETDET 27590:28Turnover on downs
17KCDET 36301:58End of game

8 of 17 drives ended in points. Longest march: Chiefs gained 81 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Detroit Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Jared Goff23/292032016.7

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Jahmyr Gibbs17653.80-1.5
David Montgomery4246.00-0.1
Jared Goff177.001.2
Amon-Ra St. Brown122.00-0.3

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Jameson Williams6766126%3.2
Sam LaPorta5655122%5.1
Amon-Ra St. Brown91045037%0.3
David Montgomery223707%2.3
Jahmyr Gibbs12007%-1.7

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Alex Anzalone750.000
Jack Campbell441.000
Brian Branch430.000
DJ Reader140.000
Kerby Joseph400.000
Rock Ya-Sin310.000
Derrick Barnes220.000
Arthur Maulet120.000
Amik Robertson110.000
Aidan Hutchinson201.000

Kansas City Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Patrick Mahomes22/3025730315.6

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Isiah Pacheco12514.30-1.5
Patrick Mahomes10323.21-1.5
Kareem Hunt6233.801.1
Xavier Worthy166.000.2

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Travis Kelce6778025%8.7
JuJu Smith-Schuster3357011%3.7
Marquise Brown4445214%6.1
Noah Gray222507%1.2
Brashard Smith3421014%0.8
Xavier Worthy2420114%0.8
Kareem Hunt111104%0.5
Isiah Pacheco130011%-1.6

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Chamarri Conner1040.000
Nick Bolton340.000
Leo Chenal430.000
Bryan Cook520.000
Trent McDuffie510.000
Jaylen Watson120.000
Drue Tranquill210.000
Cooper McDonald120.000
Christian Roland-Wallace110.000
Nohl Williams110.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
KC -2.5
Closing total
51.5
DET moneyline
+120
KC moneyline
-142

Chiefs closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 13.

Total closed 51.5; the game landed 47 — under by 4.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
85°F, wind 13 mph
Referee
Craig Wrolstad
Rest
DET 7 days · KC 6 days
Coaches
Dan Campbell vs Andy Reid