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Game Center
2025 Week 6 · Sun, Oct 12, 2025 · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2025 Week 6
It turned at Q2 12:56, 3rd and 3, on Jameson Williams — 12.3 win-probability points to the Lions on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
Kansas City Chiefs 30–17. Biggest swing: Q2 12:56, Lions +12.3% win probability on one snap.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 12:56 · 3rd and 3
Jameson Williams
Lions
(12:56) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 1-J.Williams for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC-20-N.Williams was injured during the play.
12.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Red zone
Chiefs won this one — 4 touchdowns on 6 trips, against Lions at 1 touchdown on 3 trips.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Chiefs won this one — +0.27 expected points per snap, against Lions at +0.11 expected points per snap.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Chiefs won this one — +0.04 expected points per carry, against Lions at -0.09 expected points per carry.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Chiefs won this one — +0.39 expected points per dropback, against Lions at +0.25 expected points per dropback.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market saw this game the same way — never more than 4 points apart.
(12:56) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 1-J.Williams for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC-20-N.Williams was injured during the play.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Patrick Mahomes's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 0:40 left in the 2nd put Kansas City Chiefs ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Xavier Worthy6-yd TD catch6-yard touchdown catchfrom Patrick Mahomes · kick no good, wide left+63–68 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Lionscategory by categoryChiefs
Chiefs ahead 6–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.39 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Lions ran 53 snaps at a 58% dropback rate against Chiefs’s 58 at 66%. Red-zone trips: Lions 3, Chiefs 6.
Chiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.27 expected points added per play vs 0.11.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
2 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
KC's pass rate over expected, +13.5 pts, was the highest of the 30 team-games charted in week 6 — 6.2 points clear of the next team along.
58 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.5 points. · +1.3σ from their own normal
DET's play-action rate turned over: 39.3% in week 5 against 12.9% here — they faked the run then and dropped back clean now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
31 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.6 points. · −1.2σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 24 pts
Over Expected room →Lions-6.3 ptsright on their number · −1.5 vs their -4.8 pts, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (−0.20× that swing) · 53 snaps
Chiefs13.5 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +9.7 vs their 3.8 pts, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (+1.29× that swing) · 58 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 24% to 84%
Tendencies room →Lions52.5%right on their number · −1.2 vs their 53.7%, and they swing ±11.8 week to week (−0.10× that swing) · 40 early downs
Chiefs63.0%right on their number · +0.8 vs their 62.3%, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (+0.11× that swing) · 46 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -6% to 53%
Tendencies room →Lions12.9%leaned — dropped back clean · −13.0 vs their 25.9%, and they swing ±10.6 week to week (−1.22× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Chiefs10.5%inside their normal wobble · −5.1 vs their 15.6%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (−0.64× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 13% to 118%
Fourth Down room →Lions66.7%right on their number · +1.1 vs their 65.6%, and they swing ±20.6 week to week (+0.05× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
Chiefs75.0%leaned — went for it · +19.0 vs their 56.0%, and they swing ±16.1 week to week (+1.18× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 2% to 70%
Tendencies room →Lions21.1%inside their normal wobble · −10.8 vs their 31.8%, and they swing ±11.4 week to week (−0.94× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Chiefs32.3%inside their normal wobble · −7.4 vs their 39.7%, and they swing ±11.8 week to week (−0.63× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -6% to 39%
Tendencies room →Lions10.5%inside their normal wobble · −5.7 vs their 16.3%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (−0.65× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Chiefs12.9%inside their normal wobble · −4.2 vs their 17.1%, and they swing ±5.7 week to week (−0.73× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
KC's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 13.5 pts, 9.7 points above their season mean of 3.8 pts and 1.3 times their own 7.5-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Detroit Lions
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Kansas City Chiefs
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · KC
22/30, 257 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT
15.6 expected points added · +7.7% completion over expected
Passing · DET
23/29, 203 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
6.7 expected points added · +14.2% completion over expected
Receiving · DET
6/7 for 66 yds, 1 TD
26% of team targets · 3.2 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Marquise Brown banked 10.5 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick MahomesQB · Starter QB | 31.5 | +5.0 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 22/30, 257 yd, 3 TD · 10 car, 32 yd, 1 TD |
| Marquise BrownWR · Rotational Receiver | 20.5 | +10.5 | 52% | 63% | 14% | 22% | 4/4, 45 yd, 2 TD |
| Jameson WilliamsWR · Alpha Receiver | 18.6 | +7.1 | 85% | 87% | 26% | 29% | 6/7, 66 yd, 1 TD |
| Jared GoffQB · Starter QB | 16.8 | +5.4 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 23/29, 203 yd, 2 TD · 1 car, 7 yd |
| Sam LaPortaTE · Featured Receiver | 16.5 | +5.3 | 96% | 97% | 22% | 32% | 5/6, 55 yd, 1 TD |
| Travis KelceTE · Alpha Receiver | 13.8 | +2.4 | 70% | 74% | 25% | 37% | 6/7, 78 yd |
| Amon-Ra St. BrownWR · Alpha Receiver | 13.7 | −1.9 | 89% | 97% | 37% | 35% | 1 car, 2 yd · 9/10, 45 yd |
| Xavier WorthyWR · Rotational Receiver | 10.6 | +1.8 | 73% | 76% | 14% | 35% | 1 car, 6 yd · 2/4, 20 yd, 1 TD |
| JuJu Smith-SchusterWR · Rotational Receiver | 8.7 | +4.2 | 62% | 66% | 11% | 6% | 3/3, 57 yd |
| David MontgomeryRB | 8.1 | +3.0 | 31% | 39% | 7% | 0% | 4 car, 24 yd · 2/2, 37 yd |
| Jahmyr GibbsRB · Bell Cow Back | 7.5 | −6.1 | 69% | 61% | 7% | 7% | 17 car, 65 yd · 1/2, 0 yd |
| Isiah PachecoRB · Committee Back | 6.1 | −5.8 | 77% | 79% | 11% | 2% | 12 car, 51 yd · 1/3, 0 yd |
| Brashard SmithRB · Receiving Back | 5.1 | −1.6 | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Noah GrayTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.5 | +1.5 | 75% | 66% | 7% | 5% | 2/2, 25 yd |
| Kareem HuntRB | 4.4 | −0.1 | 30% | 21% | 4% | 0% | 6 car, 23 yd · 1/1, 11 yd |
| Dominic LovettWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Kalif RaymondWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Craig ReynoldsRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Jason BrownleeWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Nikko RemigioWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
6 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 5 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Chiefs attack right, the Lions attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(7:01) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete short right to 1-X.Worthy (12-T.Harper) [34-A.Anzalone].
Q2 7:01 · Chiefs · 4th & 1 at DET 19 · gained nothing · -3.90 EP · −10.3% win probability
141 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 154 plays across 17 drives, personnel groupings on 141 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 149. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
8 of 17 drives ended in points. The longest march was KC moving 81 yards from the KC 19 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; KC attacks right, DET attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
154 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
154 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Lions3
Chiefs0Lions3Chiefs6Lions9Chiefs6Lions10Chiefs6How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, caught in traffic.
Lions10Chiefs12Lions10Chiefs13Lions10Chiefs19Lions10Chiefs20Lions16Chiefs20Lions17Chiefs20Lions17Chiefs26Lions17Chiefs27Lions17Chiefs30Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Lions at Chiefs, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 23/29 | 203 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +6.7 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 17 | 65 | 3.8 | 0 | −1.5 |
| David Montgomery | 4 | 24 | 6.0 | 0 | −0.1 |
| Jared Goff |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameson Williams | 6 | 7 | 66 | 1 | 26% | +3.2 |
| Sam LaPorta | 5 | 6 | 55 | 1 | 22% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Anzalone | 7 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jack Campbell | 4 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brian Branch |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 22/30 | 257 | 3 | 0 | 3 | +15.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2025_06_DET_KC
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Chiefs closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 13.
Total closed 51.5; the game landed 47 — under by 4.5.
Conditions and crew
| 1 |
| 7 |
| 7.0 |
| 0 |
| +1.2 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | −0.3 |
| +5.1 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 9 | 10 | 45 | 0 | 37% | +0.3 |
| David Montgomery | 2 | 2 | 37 | 0 | 7% | +2.3 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7% | −1.7 |
| 4 |
| 3 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| DJ Reader | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rock Ya-Sin | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kerby Joseph | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Derrick Barnes | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Arthur Maulet | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Amik Robertson | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Aidan Hutchinson | 2 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Isiah Pacheco | 12 | 51 | 4.3 | 0 | −1.5 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 10 | 32 | 3.2 | 1 | −1.5 |
| Kareem Hunt | 6 | 23 | 3.8 | 0 | +1.1 |
| Xavier Worthy | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 | +0.2 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | 6 | 7 | 78 | 0 | 25% | +8.7 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 3 | 3 | 57 | 0 | 11% | +3.7 |
| Marquise Brown | 4 | 4 | 45 | 2 | 14% | +6.1 |
| Noah Gray | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 | 7% | +1.2 |
| Brashard Smith | 3 | 4 | 21 | 0 | 14% | +0.8 |
| Xavier Worthy | 2 | 4 | 20 | 1 | 14% | +0.8 |
| Kareem Hunt | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 4% | +0.5 |
| Isiah Pacheco | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 11% | −1.6 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chamarri Conner | 10 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Leo Chenal | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick Bolton | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bryan Cook | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Trent McDuffie | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaylen Watson | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cooper McDonald | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Drue Tranquill | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Roland-Wallace | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nohl Williams | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
