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2025 Week 6 · Sun, Oct 12, 2025 · Hard Rock Stadium

Los Angeles ChargersWinner

29

Miami Dolphins

27

LAC -3.5 no coverO 45.5 ✓

Los Angeles Chargers 29–27 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:34, MIA +33% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3MIA ↑LAC ↓
Q4 · 0:34LAC 26 — MIA 27LAC ball · 2nd & 10MIA 58%

(:34) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 15-L.McConkey ran ob at MIA 17 for 42 yards (23-J.Jones).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 0:34MIA +33% win prob(:34) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 15-L.McConkey ran ob at MIA 17 for 42 yards (23-J.Jones).
  2. Q4 · 0:52MIA +26% win prob(:52) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right to 83-D.Waller for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  3. Q4 · 0:09MIA +14% win prob(:09) 11-C.Dicker 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-R.Lovato, Holder-16-J.Scott.
  4. Q2 · 0:54MIA +14% win prob(:54) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep left to 17-J.Waddle to LAC 17 for 45 yards.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 7:55LAC Field goal

    (7:55) 11-C.Dicker 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-R.Lovato, Holder-16-J.Scott.

    Score after this play: LAC 3 — MIA 0
  2. Q1 · 4:11MIA Touchdown

    (4:11) (Shotgun) 28-D.Achane right end for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LAC 3 — MIA 7
  3. Q1 · 0:39LAC Field goal

    (:39) 11-C.Dicker 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-R.Lovato, Holder-16-J.Scott.

    Score after this play: LAC 6 — MIA 7
  4. Q2 · 8:42LAC Field goal

    (8:42) 11-C.Dicker 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-R.Lovato, Holder-16-J.Scott.

    Score after this play: LAC 9 — MIA 7
  5. Q2 · 4:34MIA Field goal

    (4:34) 47-R.Patterson 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

    Score after this play: LAC 9 — MIA 10
  6. Q2 · 0:04MIA Field goal

    (:04) 47-R.Patterson 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

    Score after this play: LAC 9 — MIA 13
  7. Q3 · 7:33LAC Touchdown

    (7:33) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 15-L.McConkey for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LAC 16 — MIA 13
  8. Q3 · 4:01LAC Touchdown

    (4:01) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 30-K.Vidal for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LAC 23 — MIA 13
  9. Q4 · 12:50LAC Field goal

    (12:50) 11-C.Dicker 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-R.Lovato, Holder-16-J.Scott.

    Score after this play: LAC 26 — MIA 13
  10. Q4 · 8:02MIA Touchdown

    (8:02) 28-D.Achane left end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LAC 26 — MIA 20
  11. Q4 · 0:52MIA Touchdown

    (:52) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right to 83-D.Waller for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LAC 26 — MIA 27
  12. Q4 · 0:09LAC Field goal

    (:09) 11-C.Dicker 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-R.Lovato, Holder-16-J.Scott.

    Score after this play: LAC 29 — MIA 27

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricChargersDolphins
Offensive plays6456
Total yards403 (edge)341
Yards per play6.3 (edge)6.1
Expected points added / play0.10 (edge)0.09
Success rate45% (edge)45%
Dropback rate61%64%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.18 (edge)-0.02
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.010.30 (edge)
Third downs6/155/11 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)8 (edge)5
First downs gained on snaps20 (edge)17
Sacks taken1 (edge)2
Turnovers1 (edge)3

Chargers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.10 expected points added per play vs 0.09.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · LAC

Justin HerbertQB

29/38, 264 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

12.6 expected points added · +8.8% completion over expected

Passing · MIA

Tua TagovailoaQB

21/32, 205 yds, 1 TD, 3 INT

-0.0 expected points added · +2.0% completion over expected

Rushing · MIA

De'Von AchaneRB

16 att, 128 yds, 2 TD

7.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · LAC

Kimani VidalRB

18 att, 124 yds, 0 TD

0.0 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · LAC

Ladd McConkeyWR

7/9 for 100 yds, 1 TD

24% of team targets · 5.9 expected points added

Receiving · MIA

Jaylen WaddleWR

6/8 for 95 yds, 0 TD

27% of team targets · 1.7 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1MIAMIA 46320:54Interception
2LACLAC 4111276:14Field goal +3
3MIAMIA 24541:39Punt
4LACLAC 294212:02Fumble
5MIALAC 492490:08Touchdown +7
6LACLAC 328553:28Field goal +3
7MIAMIA 298373:38Missed field goal
8LACLAC 476473:18Field goal +3
9MIAMIA 359364:09Field goal +3
10LACLAC 357182:52Punt
11MIAMIA 189831:38Field goal +3
12LACLAC 2815777:34Touchdown +7
13MIAMIA 254-31:32Interception
14LACMIA 375371:59Touchdown +7
15MIAMIA 305-81:34Punt
16LACLAC 219624:34Field goal +3
17MIAMIA 3111594:51Touchdown +7
18LACLAC 206151:37Punt
19MIAMIA 1814825:33Touchdown +7
20LACLAC 417440:41Field goal +3
21MIAMIA 35200:05Interception

12 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Dolphins gained 83 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a field goal.

Full stat lines

Box score

Los Angeles Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Justin Herbert29/3826420112.6

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Kimani Vidal181246.900.0
Hassan Haskins6142.30-2.6
Justin Herbert122.002.3

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Ladd McConkey79100124%5.9
Oronde Gadsden II7868021%-2.4
Tre Harris4527013%2.0
Keenan Allen4727018%0.4
Will Dissly221805%1.2
Kimani Vidal3414111%1.0
Hassan Haskins11903%0.8
KeAndre Lambert-Smith12105%-1.1

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Daiyan Henley340.000
Justin Eboigbe510.000
Elijah Molden230.000
Derwin James140.011
Troy Dye410.000
Donte Jackson210.000
Benjamin St-Juste030.011
Tarheeb Still300.001
Bud Dupree210.000
R.J. Mickens210.000

Miami Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Tua Tagovailoa21/32205132-0.0
Jaylen Waddle1/18000-0.6

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
De'Von Achane161288.027.0
Tua Tagovailoa144.00-0.2
Alec Ingold133.00-0.3
Malik Washington111.00-0.4
Ollie Gordon II210.50-0.4

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Jaylen Waddle6895027%1.7
Julian Hill3331010%1.3
De'Von Achane4622020%-3.8
Alec Ingold112203%1.5
Malik Washington4522017%1.8
Darren Waller2312110%2.6
Tanner Conner11803%0.5
Ollie Gordon II11103%-0.5
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine01003%-0.0
Dee Eskridge01003%-0.3

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
K.J. Britt670.000
Jordyn Brooks800.000
Rasul Douglas430.000
Jack Jones600.000
Ashtyn Davis320.000
Minkah Fitzpatrick500.002
Jaelan Phillips210.000
Zach Sieler120.000
Julius Brents210.000
Dante Trader Jr.110.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
LAC -3.5
Closing total
45.5
LAC moneyline
-205
MIA moneyline
+170

Chargers closed -3.5, won by 2 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 45.5; the game landed 56 — over by 10.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Hard Rock Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
85°F, wind 4 mph
Referee
Bill Vinovich
Rest
LAC 7 days · MIA 7 days
Coaches
Jim Harbaugh vs Mike McDaniel