For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 11.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 22 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Dolphins.
MarketModelmodel higher on Dolphinshigher on Chargers161 of 173 plays carry both curves
(:34) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 15-L.McConkey ran ob at MIA 17 for 42 yards (23-J.Jones).
Swing −33.4 for DolphinsExpected points −2.87 for DolphinsThe model had Dolphins 5 points higher than the market did.play 163
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:34MIA +33% win prob(:34) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 15-L.McConkey ran ob at MIA 17 for 42 yards (23-J.Jones).
4th · 0:52MIA +26% win prob(:52) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right to 83-D.Waller for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 0:09MIA +14% win prob(:09) 11-C.Dicker 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-R.Lovato, Holder-16-J.Scott.
2nd · 0:54MIA +14% win prob(:54) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep left to 17-J.Waddle to LAC 17 for 45 yards.
4th · 0:05LAC +13% win prob(:05) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right intended for 18-N.Westbrook-Ikhine INTERCEPTED by 3-D.James at MIA 40. 3-D.James ran ob at MIA 19 for 21 yards.
1st · 4:22LAC +10% win prob(4:22) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 86-O.Gadsden to MIA 49 for 8 yards (20-J.Brooks, 26-R.Douglas). FUMBLES (26-R.Douglas), touched at 50, RECOVERED by MIA-20-J.Brooks at MIA 49. 20-J.Brooks to LAC 49 for 2 yards (13-K.Allen).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Cameron Dicker's 33-yard field goal with 0:09 left in the 4th put Los Angeles Chargers ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st7:55Cameron Dicker·35-yd field goal35-yard field goalholder J.Scott · snap R.Lovato+33–0
4th0:52Darren Waller·7-yd TD catch7-yard touchdown catchfrom Tua Tagovailoafrom Tua Tagovailoa+726–27
4th0:09Cameron Dicker·33-yd field goal33-yard field goalholder J.Scott · snap R.LovatoLead never changed again+329–27
12 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Chargerscategory by categoryDolphins
Chargers7–1Dolphins
403Total yards341
6.3Yards per play6.1
45%Success rate45%
40%Third-down rate45%
2Red-zone touchdowns2
8Explosive plays5
20First downs17
1Sacks taken2
1Turnovers3
The read
Chargers ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.10Chargers: +0.10 expected points added per play
+0.09Dolphins: +0.09 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.18Chargers: +0.18 expected points added per play
−0.02Dolphins: −0.02 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.01Chargers: −0.01 expected points added per play
+0.30Dolphins: +0.30 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chargers ran 64 snaps at a 61% dropback rate against Dolphins’s 56 at 64%. Red-zone trips: Chargers 7, Dolphins 4.
NoteChargers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.10 expected points added per play vs 0.09.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
MIA's pass rate over expected turned over: +8.9 pts in week 5 against −8.9 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.8 of their own weekly swings across the two.
56 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.3 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 21 pts
inside their normal wobble · −4.0 vs their 15.2%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (−0.55× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Dolphins17.9%
leaned — got home · +5.1 vs their 12.8%, and they swing ±4.4 week to week (+1.17× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
NoteMIA's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 17.9%, 5.1 points above their season mean of 12.8% and 1.2 times their own 4.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash.
More columns →
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Dolphins attack right, the Chargers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Chargers←Dolphins→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Herbert pass+37% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(:34) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 15-L.McConkey ran ob at MIA 17 for 42 yards (23-J.Jones).
Q4 0:34 · Chargers · 2nd & 10 at LAC 41 · gained 42 · +2.87 EP · +37.0% win probability
160 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 173 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 159 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 168. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
12 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIA moving 82 yards from the MIA 18 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; MIA attacks right, LAC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
173 of 173 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
173
EPA per play
+0.09
Success rate
47%
Yards
744
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Chargers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR38-0.0974%
Dolphins1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR18+0.2267%
Dolphins2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR16+0.1044%
Chargers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR16+0.3725%
Dolphins2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR14+0.0857%
Chargers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9+0.3267%
Dolphins1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7-0.11100%
Chargers1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Dolphins1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
173 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
173 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
Intercepted3 plays, from the Dolphins 46 to the Dolphins 48
Chargers3Dolphins0
Field goal13 plays, from the Chargers 41 to the Dolphins 17
Punt5 plays, from the Dolphins 24 to the Dolphins 29
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.4 seconds
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Chargers 29 to the Chargers 43
How the play was built
A run-pass option, a man in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, two backs, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Chargers3Dolphins6
Chargers3Dolphins7
Touchdown2 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxEight defenders
Chargers6Dolphins7
Field goal8 plays, from the Chargers 32 to the Dolphins 13
The period ended4 plays, from the Dolphins 29 to the Dolphins 45
2nd quarter46 plays
No good7 plays, from midfield to the Chargers 37
Chargers9Dolphins7
Field goal7 plays, from the Chargers 47 to the Dolphins 11
Chargers9Dolphins10
Field goal9 plays, from the Dolphins 35 to the Chargers 29
The period ended10 plays, from the Chargers 35 to the Chargers 47
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
Chargers9Dolphins13
Field goal12 plays, from the Dolphins 18 to the Chargers 9
3rd quarter35 plays
Chargers15Dolphins13
Chargers16Dolphins13
Touchdown16 plays, from the Chargers 28 to the Dolphins 5
Intercepted4 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Dolphins 26
Chargers22Dolphins13
Chargers23Dolphins13
Touchdown5 plays, from the Dolphins 37 to the Dolphins 7
Punt5 plays
The period ended5 plays, from the Chargers 21 to the Chargers 35
4th quarter52 plays
Chargers26Dolphins13
Field goal5 plays, from the Dolphins 38 to the Dolphins 17
Chargers26Dolphins19
Chargers26Dolphins20
Touchdown12 plays, from the Dolphins 31 to the Chargers 4
Punt6 plays, from the Chargers 20 to the Chargers 35
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.1 seconds
Chargers26Dolphins26
Chargers26Dolphins27
Touchdown16 plays, from the Dolphins 18 to the Chargers 7
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, five linebackers and five backsRoute runDragCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.7 seconds
Chargers29Dolphins27
Field goal10 plays, from the Chargers 41 to the Dolphins 15
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linebackers and seven backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxThree defendersPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
Intercepted2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
