2025 Week 6 · Sun, Oct 12, 2025 · M&T Bank Stadium

Los Angeles RamsWinner

Baltimore Ravens

LA -7 ✓U 43.5 ✓15 mph windRams closed -7 and covered, winning by 14.

Los Angeles Rams 17–3. Biggest swing: Q1 1:29, LA +14% win probability on one snap. Played in 15 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 1:29LA 0 — BAL 3LA ball · 1st & 10LA 75%

(1:29) 9-M.Stafford sacked at BAL 44 for -7 yards (94-J.Jenkins). FUMBLES (94-J.Jenkins) [94-J.Jenkins], touched at BAL 46, RECOVERED by BAL-94-J.Jenkins at BAL 48. 94-J.Jenkins to LA 41 for 11 yards (73-S.Avila).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 1:29LA +14% win prob(1:29) 9-M.Stafford sacked at BAL 44 for -7 yards (94-J.Jenkins). FUMBLES (94-J.Jenkins) [94-J.Jenkins], touched at BAL 46, RECOVERED by BAL-94-J.Jenkins at BAL 48. 94-J.Jenkins to LA 41 for 11 yards (73-S.Avila).
Q1 · 2:27LA +12% win prob(2:27) 16-J.Karty 26 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.
Q3 · 12:20BAL +10% win prob(12:20) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left to 23-K.Williams to BAL 3 for 30 yards. Penalty on BAL-32-T.Simpson, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
Q3 · 11:14LA +7% win prob(11:14) (Shotgun) 15-C.Rush pass short right to 4-Z.Flowers to BAL 36 for 10 yards (8-J.Verse; 53-N.Landman). FUMBLES (8-J.Verse), RECOVERED by LA-37-Q.Lake at BAL 41. 37-Q.Lake to BAL 21 for 20 yards (68-J.Noteboom).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 7:26BAL Field goal
(7:26) 33-T.Loop 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.
Score after this play: LA 0 — BAL 3
Q2 · 9:53LA Field goal
(9:53) 16-J.Karty 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.
Score after this play: LA 3 — BAL 3
Q3 · 11:55LA Touchdown
(11:55) 23-K.Williams up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: LA 10 — BAL 3
Q3 · 10:25LA Touchdown
(10:25) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 89-T.Higbee for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: LA 17 — BAL 3

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Rams	Ravens
Offensive plays	49	74
Total yards	243	296 (edge)
Yards per play	5.0 (edge)	4.0
Expected points added / play	-0.03 (edge)	-0.33
Success rate	47% (edge)	39%
Dropback rate	59%	53%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.03 (edge)	-0.35
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.12 (edge)	-0.31
Third downs	4/10	7/17 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6	6
First downs gained on snaps	14	18 (edge)
Sacks taken	2 (edge)	4
Turnovers	1 (edge)	3

Ravens outgained Rams 296–243 but lost the turnover battle 3–1. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · LA

Matthew StaffordQB

17/26, 181 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

1.0 expected points added · +0.7% completion over expected

Passing · BAL

Cooper RushQB

11/19, 72 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-5.1 expected points added · -9.4% completion over expected

Rushing · BAL

Derrick HenryRB

24 att, 122 yds, 0 TD

-2.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · LA

Kyren WilliamsRB

13 att, 50 yds, 1 TD

-0.1 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · BAL

Zay FlowersWR

6/10 for 46 yds, 0 TD

31% of team targets · -10.3 expected points added

Receiving · LA

Tyler HigbeeTE

4/4 for 40 yds, 1 TD

15% of team targets · 3.8 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	BAL	BAL 28	13	63	7:38	Field goal +3
2	LA	LA 35	12	57	4:59	Missed field goal
3	BAL	BAL 20	3	3	0:54	Interception
4	LA	BAL 37	1	-9	0:06	Fumble
5	BAL	LA 41	5	17	2:12	Turnover on downs
6	LA	LA 34	12	48	4:21	Field goal +3
7	BAL	BAL 19	11	28	4:48	Punt
8	LA	LA 10	4	7	1:37	Punt
9	BAL	LA 32	8	29	3:17	Turnover on downs
10	LA	LA 3	1	0	0:08	End of half
11	LA	LA 24	11	76	3:08	Touchdown +7
12	BAL	BAL 36	2	10	0:52	Fumble
13	LA	BAL 21	3	21	0:40	Touchdown +7
14	BAL	BAL 20	14	48	6:59	Fumble
15	LA	LA 31	8	33	4:51	Turnover on downs
16	BAL	BAL 11	17	79	9:46	Turnover on downs
17	LA	LA 15	6	10	1:52	Punt
18	BAL	BAL 23	8	19	1:29	Turnover on downs
19	LA	BAL 42	1	0	0:23	End of game

4 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Ravens gained 79 scrimmage yards over 17 plays for a turnover on downs.

Full stat lines

Box score

Los Angeles Rams

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Matthew Stafford	17/26	181	1	0	2	1.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Kyren Williams	13	50	3.8	1	-0.1
Blake Corum	5	23	4.6	0	-0.2
Matthew Stafford	4	1	0.3	0	-2.1
Terrance Ferguson	1	0	0.0	0	-1.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Tyler Higbee	4	4	40	1	15%	3.8
Davante Adams	4	9	39	0	35%	-0.5
Kyren Williams	2	2	37	0	8%	4.9
Puka Nacua	2	3	28	0	12%	3.1
Jordan Whittington	3	4	23	0	15%	0.2
Davis Allen	1	2	7	0	8%	-0.4
Konata Mumpfield	1	2	7	0	8%	-0.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Nate Landman	8	9	0.0	0	0
Byron Young	4	4	2.0	0	0
Quentin Lake	1	5	0.0	1	1
Tyler Davis	3	3	0.0	0	0
Shaun Dolac	5	1	0.0	0	0
Jared Verse	3	3	1.0	0	0
Kam Curl	4	1	0.0	0	0
Kamren Kinchens	3	2	0.0	0	0
Darious Williams	3	1	0.0	0	2
Troy Reeder	1	2	0.0	0	1

Baltimore Ravens

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Cooper Rush	11/19	72	0	1	0	-5.1
Tyler Huntley	10/15	68	0	0	4	-7.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Derrick Henry	24	122	5.1	-2.1
Tyler Huntley	3	39	13.0	5.8
Justice Hill	6	16	2.7	-2.6
Mark Andrews	3	2	0.7	-1.6
Cooper Rush	1	0	0.0	-5.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Zay Flowers	6	10	46	31%	-10.3
Justice Hill	5	6	28	19%	-1.7
Mark Andrews	4	6	24	19%	1.2
DeAndre Hopkins	2	4	20	13%	0.4
Derrick Henry	1	2	8	6%	-0.1
Rashod Bateman	1	1	8	3%	0.2
Isaiah Likely	2	2	6	6%	-0.7
Charlie Kolar	0	1	0	3%	-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Trenton Simpson	4	5	0.5	1
Teddye Buchanan	2	6	0.5	0
Alohi Gilman	4	3	0.0	0
Malaki Starks	4	1	0.0	0
Kyle Hamilton	2	2	0.0	0
John Jenkins	2	1	1.0	0
Marlon Humphrey	1	1	0.0	1
Nate Wiggins	2	0	0.0	0
Brent Urban	2	0	0.0	0
Zay Flowers	1	0	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: LA -7
Closing total: 43.5
LA moneyline: -355
BAL moneyline: +280

Rams closed -7 and covered, winning by 14.

Total closed 43.5; the game landed 20 — under by 23.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: M&T Bank Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 64°F, wind 15 mph
Referee: Alex Kemp
Rest: LA 10 days · BAL 7 days
Coaches: Sean McVay vs John Harbaugh

Wind at 15 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.