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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:36 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2025 Week 6 · Sun, Oct 12, 2025 · M&T Bank Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2025 Week 6
It turned at Q1 1:29, 1st and 10, on Matthew Stafford — 14.2 win-probability points to the Ravens on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 1:29 · 1st and 10
Matthew Stafford
Ravens
(1:29) 9-M.Stafford sacked at BAL 44 for -7 yards (94-J.Jenkins). FUMBLES (94-J.Jenkins) [94-J.Jenkins], touched at BAL 46, RECOVERED by BAL-94-J.Jenkins at BAL 48. 94-J.Jenkins to LA 41 for 11 yards (73-S.Avila).
Los Angeles Rams 17–3. Biggest swing: Q1 1:29, Ravens +14.2% win probability on one snap.
14.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Giveaways
Rams won this one — 1 giveaway, against Ravens at 3 giveaways.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Rams won this one — -0.03 expected points per snap, against Ravens at -0.33 expected points per snap.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Rams won this one — 2 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Ravens at 0 touchdowns on 3 trips.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Rams won this one — +0.03 expected points per dropback, against Ravens at -0.35 expected points per dropback.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 16.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 34 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Ravens.
(1:29) 9-M.Stafford sacked at BAL 44 for -7 yards (94-J.Jenkins). FUMBLES (94-J.Jenkins) [94-J.Jenkins], touched at BAL 46, RECOVERED by BAL-94-J.Jenkins at BAL 48. 94-J.Jenkins to LA 41 for 11 yards (73-S.Avila).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Kyren Williams's 3-yard rushing touchdown with 11:55 left in the 3rd put Los Angeles Rams ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 1 score that followed.
4 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Ramscategory by categoryRavens
Rams ahead 5–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Rams ran 49 snaps at a 59% dropback rate against Ravens’s 74 at 53%. Red-zone trips: Rams 5, Ravens 3.
Ravens outgained Rams 296-243 but lost the turnover battle 3-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
BAL's play-action rate, 7.7%, was the lowest of the 30 team-games charted in week 6 — 0.9 points clear of the next team along.
39 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.4 points.
LA's sack or hit rate, 28.2%, is past their previous high of 22.9% in week 4 — the highest of their 6 charted games through week 6.
39 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.8 points.
LA's blitz rate sent turned over: 14.3% in week 5 against 41.0% here — they sat back then and sent pressure now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
39 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.3 points.
LA's early-down pass rate turned over: 80.0% in week 5 against 51.4% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 3.6 of their own weekly swings across the two.
37 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.9 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -34 pts to 20 pts
Over Expected room →Rams3.8 ptsright on their number · +0.6 vs their 3.2 pts, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (+0.10× that swing) · 49 snaps
Ravens-14.0 ptsinside their normal wobble · −5.5 vs their -8.5 pts, and they swing ±9.8 week to week (−0.56× that swing) · 74 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 13% to 79%
Tendencies room →Rams51.4%inside their normal wobble · −4.1 vs their 55.5%, and they swing ±7.9 week to week (−0.52× that swing) · 37 early downs
Ravens41.2%right on their number · −4.7 vs their 45.9%, and they swing ±12.8 week to week (−0.37× that swing) · 51 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 0% to 61%
Tendencies room →Rams31.0%right on their number · −4.4 vs their 35.4%, and they swing ±9.6 week to week (−0.46× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Ravens7.7%leaned — dropped back clean · −15.5 vs their 23.2%, and they swing ±8.4 week to week (−1.84× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -27% to 101%
Fourth Down room →Rams66.7%inside their normal wobble · +17.4 vs their 49.3%, and they swing ±19.3 week to week (+0.90× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
Ravens—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 34.9%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 57%
Tendencies room →Rams41.0%leaned — sent pressure · +16.1 vs their 25.0%, and they swing ±11.3 week to week (+1.43× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Ravens44.8%leaned — sent pressure · +15.0 vs their 29.8%, and they swing ±10.5 week to week (+1.43× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 41%
Tendencies room →Rams28.2%leaned — got home · +10.3 vs their 17.9%, and they swing ±8.8 week to week (+1.17× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Ravens6.9%inside their normal wobble · −7.2 vs their 14.1%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (−0.90× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
BAL's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 7.7%, 15.5 points below their season mean of 23.2% and 1.8 times their own 8.4-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Los Angeles Rams
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Baltimore Ravens
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · LA
17/26, 181 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
1.0 expected points added · +0.7% completion over expected
Passing · BAL
11/19, 72 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT
-5.1 expected points added · -9.4% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Rashod Bateman banked 0.9 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick HenryRB · Bell Cow Back | 14.0 | −4.1 | 49% | 23% | 6% | 4% | 24 car, 122 yd · 1/2, 8 yd |
| Justice HillRB · Receiving Back | 9.4 | −2.0 | 45% | 65% | 19% | 6% | 6 car, 16 yd · 5/6, 28 yd |
| Zay FlowersWR · Alpha Receiver | 8.6 | −6.0 | 91% | 90% | 31% | 39% | 6/10, 46 yd |
| Tyler HuntleyQB | 6.6 | +0.6 | 32% | — | 0% | — | 10/15, 68 yd · 3 car, 39 yd |
| Mark AndrewsTE · Featured Receiver | 6.6 | −9.0 | 78% | 73% | 19% | 16% | 3 car, 2 yd · 4/6, 24 yd |
| DeAndre HopkinsWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.0 | −1.5 | 33% | 43% | 13% | 27% | 2/4, 20 yd |
| Isaiah LikelyTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.6 | −0.1 | 81% | 85% | 6% | 4% | 2/2, 6 yd |
| Rashod BatemanWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.8 | +0.9 | 56% | 57% | 3% | 1% | 1/1, 8 yd |
| Rasheen AliRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| LaJohntay WesterWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Keaton MitchellRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Tylan WallaceWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Charlie KolarTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.0 | 36% | 15% | 3% | 0% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Cooper RushQB · Starter QB | -1.1 | −6.2 | 68% | — | 0% | — | 11/19, 72 yd, 1 INT · 1 car, 0 yd |
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Ravens attack right, the Rams attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(1:29) 9-M.Stafford sacked at BAL 44 for -7 yards (94-J.Jenkins). FUMBLES (94-J.Jenkins) [94-J.Jenkins], touched at BAL 46, RECOVERED by BAL-94-J.Jenkins at BAL 48. 94-J.Jenkins to LA 41 for 11 yards (73-S.Avila).
Q1 1:29 · Rams · 1st & 10 at BAL 37 · lost 9 · -6.87 EP · −20.8% win probability
151 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 166 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 151 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 161. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
4 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was LA moving 76 yards from the LA 24 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BAL attacks right, LA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
166 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
166 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Rams0
Ravens3How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read, it should have been intercepted, caught in traffic.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Rams3Ravens3How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, caught in traffic.
Rams9Ravens3Rams10Ravens3Rams16Ravens3Rams17Ravens3Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Rams at Ravens, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 17/26 | 181 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1.0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyren Williams | 13 | 50 | 3.8 | 1 | −0.1 |
| Blake Corum | 5 | 23 | 4.6 | 0 | −0.2 |
| Matthew Stafford | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 | −2.1 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Higbee | 4 | 4 | 40 | 1 | 15% | +3.8 |
| Davante Adams | 4 | 9 | 39 | 0 | 35% | −0.5 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Landman | 8 | 9 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Byron Young | 4 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyler Davis | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jared Verse |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Rush | 11/19 | 72 | 0 | 1 | 0 | −5.1 |
| Tyler Huntley | 10/15 | 68 | 0 | 0 | 4 | −7.3 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2025_06_LA_BAL
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Rams closed -7 and covered, winning by 14.
Total closed 43.5; the game landed 20 — under by 23.5.
Conditions and crew
| Terrance Ferguson | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | −1.5 |
| Kyren Williams | 2 | 2 | 37 | 0 | 8% | +4.9 |
| Puka Nacua | 2 | 3 | 28 | 0 | 12% | +3.1 |
| Jordan Whittington | 3 | 4 | 23 | 0 | 15% | +0.2 |
| Davis Allen | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 8% | −0.4 |
| Konata Mumpfield | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 8% | −0.1 |
| 3 |
| 3 |
| 1.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Shaun Dolac | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Quentin Lake | 1 | 5 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Kamren Kinchens | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kam Curl | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Darious Williams | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Josaiah Stewart | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 24 | 122 | 5.1 | 0 | −2.1 |
| Tyler Huntley | 3 | 39 | 13.0 | 0 | +5.8 |
| Justice Hill | 6 | 16 | 2.7 | 0 | −2.6 |
| Mark Andrews | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 | −1.6 |
| Cooper Rush | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | −5.6 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zay Flowers | 6 | 10 | 46 | 0 | 31% | −10.3 |
| Justice Hill | 5 | 6 | 28 | 0 | 19% | −1.7 |
| Mark Andrews | 4 | 6 | 24 | 0 | 19% | +1.2 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 2 | 4 | 20 | 0 | 13% | +0.4 |
| Derrick Henry | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 6% | −0.1 |
| Rashod Bateman | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 3% | +0.2 |
| Isaiah Likely | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 6% | −0.7 |
| Charlie Kolar | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.4 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trenton Simpson | 4 | 5 | 0.5 | 0 | 1 |
| Teddye Buchanan | 2 | 6 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Alohi Gilman | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Malaki Starks | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kyle Hamilton | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| John Jenkins | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nate Wiggins | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brent Urban | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marlon Humphrey | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Zay Flowers | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
