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New England Patriots 25 at New Orleans Saints 19. Final.
Patriots -3.5 ✓U 46.5 ✓
The verdict · 2025 Week 6
New England Patriots 25, Saints 19 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 0:38, 1st and 10, on Kayshon Boutte — 15.0 win-probability points to the Patriots on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 0:38 · 1st and 10
Kayshon Boutte
Patriots
(:38) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep left to 9-K.Boutte for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on NO-1-A.Taylor, Unnecessary Roughness, 1 yard, enforced between downs.
Dome
Patriots closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 6.
New England Patriots 25–19. Biggest swing: Q2 0:38, Patriots +15.0% win probability on one snap.
15.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Chris OlaveSaintsQ1 14:53(14:53) (Shotgun) 2-S.Rattler pass deep right to 12-C.Olave pushed ob at NE 22 for 53 yards (23-K.Dugger).
10.3pts
Unnamed on the sheetSaintsQ2 5:54(5:54) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye Aborted. 65-G.Bradbury FUMBLES at NO 45, recovered by NE-10-D.Maye at NE 47.
11.0pts
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Patriots won this one — +0.62 expected points per dropback, against Saints at -0.03 expected points per dropback.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Saints owned this one and still lost it — -0.06 expected points per carry, against Patriots at -0.42 expected points per carry.
Saintsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Red zone
Saints owned this one and still lost it — 1 touchdown on 3 trips, against Patriots at 0 touchdowns on 4 trips.
Saintsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Patriots won this one — 6 of 12 on third down, against Saints at 3 of 9 on third down.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 9.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 22 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Saints.
MarketModelmodel higher on Saintshigher on Patriots151 of 158 plays carry both curves
(:38) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep left to 9-K.Boutte for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on NO-1-A.Taylor, Unnecessary Roughness, 1 yard, enforced between downs.
Swing −15.0 for SaintsExpected points −3.50 for SaintsThe model had Saints 9 points higher than the market did.play 76
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 0:38NO +15% win prob(:38) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep left to 9-K.Boutte for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on NO-1-A.Taylor, Unnecessary Roughness, 1 yard, enforced between downs.
2nd · 5:54NE +11% win prob(5:54) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye Aborted. 65-G.Bradbury FUMBLES at NO 45, recovered by NE-10-D.Maye at NE 47.
1st · 14:53NO +10% win prob(14:53) (Shotgun) 2-S.Rattler pass deep right to 12-C.Olave pushed ob at NE 22 for 53 yards (23-K.Dugger).
1st · 11:03NO +9% win prob(11:03) 10-D.Maye pass deep left to 3-D.Douglas for 53 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 9:47NO +9% win prob(9:47) (Shotgun) 79-L.Fortner reported in as eligible. 7-T.Hill right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 8:50NE +8% win prob(8:50) (Shotgun) 2-S.Rattler pass short middle to 83-J.Johnson to 50 for 14 yards (14-R.Spillane; 53-C.Elliss). New England challenged the runner was down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 2-S.Rattler pass short middle to 83-J.Johnson to NO 49 for 13 yards (53-C.Elliss; 14-R.Spillane). FUMBLES (53-C.Elliss), RECOVERED by NE-31-C.Woodson at NE 49.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Kayshon Boutte's 29-yard touchdown catch with 0:38 left in the 2nd put New England Patriots ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
Lead
1st12:54Blake Grupe·34-yd field goal34-yard field goalholder K.Kroeger · snap Z.Wood+30–3
2nd1:55Blake Grupe·38-yd field goal38-yard field goalholder K.Kroeger · snap Z.Wood+314–16
2nd0:38Kayshon Boutte·29-yd TD catch29-yard touchdown catchfrom Drake Mayefrom Drake Maye · two-point goodLead never changed again+822–16
3rd7:29Andy Borregales·24-yd field goal24-yard field goalholder B.Baringer · snap J.Ashby+325–16
4th13:46Blake Grupe·54-yd field goal54-yard field goalholder K.Kroeger · snap Z.Wood+325–19
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Patriotscategory by categorySaints
Patriots8–1Saints
339Total yards296
6.1Yards per play5.8
50%Success rate45%
50%Third-down rate33%
0Red-zone touchdowns1
5Explosive plays3
18First downs15
1Sacks taken2
0Turnovers1
The read
Patriots ahead 8–1 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Saints, in red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.62 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.16Patriots: +0.16 expected points added per play
−0.04Saints: −0.04 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.62Patriots: +0.62 expected points added per play
−0.03Saints: −0.03 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.42Patriots: −0.42 expected points added per play
−0.06Saints: −0.06 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Patriots ran 56 snaps at a 55% dropback rate against Saints’s 51 at 59%. Red-zone trips: Patriots 4, Saints 3.
NotePatriots won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.16 expected points added per play vs -0.04.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
NE's play-action rate turned over: 41.7% in week 5 against 22.6% here — they faked the run then and dropped back clean now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
31 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.9 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 17 pts
right on their number · −2.2 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (−0.36× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Saints12.9%
right on their number · −1.4 vs their 14.3%, and they swing ±5.1 week to week (−0.28× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
NoteNothing either side did tonight left its own normal range. The widest departure was NE's pass rate over expected, -3.3 pts against a season mean of 2.0 pts — and NE swings 5.8 points week to week, so that is a Sunday, not a plan.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New England Patriots
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
58Jared WilsonG · Every snap100%64 snaps
71Mike OnwenuG · Every snap100%64 snaps
76Morgan MosesT · Every snap100%64 snaps
10Drake MayeQB · Every snap100%64 snaps
66Will CampbellT · Every snap100%64 snaps
65Garrett BradburyC · Every snap100%64 snaps
85Hunter HenryTE · Full-time83%53 snaps
38Rhamondre StevensonRB · Heavy rotation72%46 snaps
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Saints attack right, the Patriots attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Patriots←Saints→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Maye Aborted−16% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(5:54) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye Aborted. 65-G.Bradbury FUMBLES at NO 45, recovered by NE-10-D.Maye at NE 47.
Q2 5:54 · Patriots · 4th & 7 at NO 39 · gained nothing · -3.43 EP · −16.4% win probability
149 snaps placed · 9 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 158 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 149 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 153. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was NE moving 73 yards from the NE 27 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NO attacks right, NE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
158 of 158 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
158
EPA per play
+0.05
Success rate
47%
Yards
631
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR33-0.1567%
Patriots1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR27+0.5670%
Patriots1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR22-0.1832%
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR6-0.0450%
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Patriots2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR3——
Patriots2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Saints1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Saints1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Saints1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Saints2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Patriots2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
158 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
158 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.1 seconds
Patriots0Saints3
Field goal6 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Patriots 16
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.5 seconds
Patriots6Saints3
Patriots7Saints3
Touchdown6 plays, from the Patriots 35 to the Patriots 47
Patriots7Saints6
Field goal13 plays, from the Saints 27 to the Patriots 27
Patriots13Saints6
Patriots14Saints6
Touchdown11 plays, from the Patriots 31 to the Saints 25
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter42 plays
Patriots14Saints12
Patriots14Saints13
Touchdown11 plays, from the Saints 47 to the Patriots 1
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsIn the boxFive defenders
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Patriots 35 to the Saints 39
Patriots14Saints16
Field goal9 plays, from the Patriots 47 to the Patriots 20
Patriots20Saints16
Patriots22Saints16
Touchdown11 plays, from the Patriots 27 to the Saints 29
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter35 plays
Patriots25Saints16
Field goal14 plays, from the Patriots 44 to the Saints 1
Punt9 plays, from the Saints 32 to the Patriots 37
Punt5 plays, from the Patriots 24 to the Patriots 33
The period ended7 plays, from the Saints 39 to the Patriots 37
4th quarter41 plays
Patriots25Saints19
Field goal3 plays, from the Patriots 39 to the Patriots 33
Punt11 plays, from the Patriots 20 to the Patriots 39
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
Fumble lost2 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Saints 36
Punt7 plays, from the Patriots 49 to the Saints 40
Punt6 plays, from the Saints 10 to the Saints 38
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, five linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
The period ended12 plays, from the Patriots 21 to the Saints 49
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Patriots -3.5
Closing total
46.5
Patriots moneyline
-192
Saints moneyline
+160
Patriots closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 6.
Total closed 46.5; the game landed 44 — under by 2.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
Roof / surface
dome · sportturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Adrian Hill
Rest
Patriots 7 days · Saints 7 days
Coaches
Mike Vrabel vs Kellen Moore
4th · 2:40NO +8% win prob(2:40) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep left to 9-K.Boutte pushed ob at NO 49 for 21 yards (4-K.McKinstry). New England challenged the runner was out of bounds ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep left to 9-K.Boutte to NO 49 for 21 yards (4-K.McKinstry).
2nd · 1:55NO +8% win prob(1:55) 19-B.Grupe 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger.
