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polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:41 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2025 Week 6 · Sun, Oct 12, 2025 · Mercedes-Benz Superdome
FinalThe verdict · 2025 Week 6
It turned at Q2 0:38, 1st and 10, on Kayshon Boutte — 15.0 win-probability points to the Patriots on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
New England Patriots 25–19. Biggest swing: Q2 0:38, Patriots +15.0% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 0:38 · 1st and 10
Kayshon Boutte
Patriots
(:38) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep left to 9-K.Boutte for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on NO-1-A.Taylor, Unnecessary Roughness, 1 yard, enforced between downs.
15.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Patriots won this one — +0.62 expected points per dropback, against Saints at -0.03 expected points per dropback.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Saints owned this one and still lost it — -0.06 expected points per carry, against Patriots at -0.42 expected points per carry.
Saintsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Red zone
Saints owned this one and still lost it — 1 touchdown on 3 trips, against Patriots at 0 touchdowns on 4 trips.
Saintsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Patriots won this one — 6 of 12 on third down, against Saints at 3 of 9 on third down.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 9.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 22 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Saints.
(:38) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep left to 9-K.Boutte for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on NO-1-A.Taylor, Unnecessary Roughness, 1 yard, enforced between downs.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Kayshon Boutte's 29-yard touchdown catch with 0:38 left in the 2nd put New England Patriots ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
Kayshon Boutte29-yd TD catch29-yard touchdown catchfrom Drake Maye · two-point goodLead never changed again+822–169 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Patriotscategory by categorySaints
Patriots ahead 8–1 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Saints, in red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.62 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Patriots ran 56 snaps at a 55% dropback rate against Saints’s 51 at 59%. Red-zone trips: Patriots 4, Saints 3.
Patriots won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.16 expected points added per play vs -0.04.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
1 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
NE's play-action rate turned over: 41.7% in week 5 against 22.6% here — they faked the run then and dropped back clean now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
31 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.9 points. · −0.3σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 17 pts
Over Expected room →Patriots-3.3 ptsinside their normal wobble · −5.3 vs their 2.0 pts, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (−0.93× that swing) · 55 snaps
Saints-4.2 ptsright on their number · −0.8 vs their -3.4 pts, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (−0.12× that swing) · 51 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 29% to 89%
Tendencies room →Patriots48.8%inside their normal wobble · −5.4 vs their 54.2%, and they swing ±9.2 week to week (−0.59× that swing) · 41 early downs
Saints54.8%right on their number · −4.1 vs their 58.8%, and they swing ±11.7 week to week (−0.35× that swing) · 42 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 0% to 48%
Tendencies room →Patriots22.6%right on their number · −2.3 vs their 24.9%, and they swing ±8.9 week to week (−0.26× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Saints23.3%inside their normal wobble · +4.5 vs their 18.8%, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (+0.65× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -42% to 128%
Fourth Down room →Patriots—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 43.0%.
Saints—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 48.8%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 68%
Tendencies room →Patriots36.7%inside their normal wobble · +8.5 vs their 28.2%, and they swing ±11.1 week to week (+0.76× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Saints38.7%right on their number · +6.1 vs their 32.6%, and they swing ±13.9 week to week (+0.44× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -0% to 31%
Tendencies room →Patriots13.3%right on their number · −2.2 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (−0.36× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Saints12.9%right on their number · −1.4 vs their 14.3%, and they swing ±5.1 week to week (−0.28× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Nothing either side did tonight left its own normal range. The widest departure was NE's pass rate over expected, -3.3 pts against a season mean of 2.0 pts — and NE swings 5.8 points week to week, so that is a Sunday, not a plan.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New England Patriots
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
New Orleans Saints
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · NE
18/26, 261 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT
17.4 expected points added · +10.8% completion over expected
Passing · NO
20/26, 227 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
3.9 expected points added · +6.6% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Kayshon Boutte banked 15.3 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake MayeQB · Starter QB | 27.2 | +11.0 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 18/26, 261 yd, 3 TD · 9 car, 28 yd |
| Kayshon BoutteWR · Featured Receiver | 26.3 | +15.3 | 67% | 74% | 21% | 30% | 5/5, 93 yd, 2 TD |
| DeMario DouglasWR · Rotational Receiver | 16.1 | +8.8 | 25% | 42% | 17% | 19% | 3/4, 71 yd, 1 TD |
| Chris OlaveWR · Alpha Receiver | 15.8 | −0.5 | 88% | 93% | 38% | 56% | 6/10, 98 yd |
| Alvin KamaraRB · Committee Back | 12.6 | +0.2 | 62% | 70% | 19% | 5% | 10 car, 31 yd · 5/5, 45 yd |
| Spencer RattlerQB · Starter QB | 11.1 | 0.0 | 98% | — | 0% | — | 20/26, 227 yd · 4 car, 20 yd |
| Rashid ShaheedWR · Featured Receiver | 6.8 | −2.5 | 61% | 73% | 23% | 26% | 4/6, 28 yd |
| Taysom HillQB | 6.1 | +1.6 | 21% | — | 0% | — | 1 car, 1 yd, 1 TD |
| Stefon DiggsWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.8 | +0.4 | 59% | 71% | 13% | 5% | 3/3, 28 yd |
| Hunter HenryTE · Rotational Receiver | 5.7 | +1.0 | 83% | 77% | 13% | 5% | 3/3, 27 yd |
| Mack HollinsWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.8 | −0.4 | 55% | 55% | 13% | 27% | 2/3, 28 yd |
| TreVeyon HendersonRB · Committee Back | 4.6 | −3.0 | 30% | 26% | 8% | 0% | 9 car, 27 yd · 1/2, 9 yd |
| Kendre MillerRB | 4.2 | −0.9 | 39% | 30% | 4% | 1% | 8 car, 21 yd · 1/1, 11 yd |
| Brandin CooksWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.1 | +1.2 | 64% | 63% | 4% | 10% | 1/1, 21 yd |
| Foster MoreauTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.9 | +0.5 | 36% | 23% | 4% | 1% | 1/1, 9 yd |
| Rhamondre StevensonRB · Committee Back | 1.8 | −10.9 | 72% | 74% | 4% | 1% | 13 car, 18 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Austin HooperTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.5 | +0.3 | 64% | 48% | 4% | 1% | 1/1, 5 yd |
| Juwan JohnsonTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.5 | −1.6 | 71% | 83% | 8% | 2% | 2/2, 15 yd |
| Efton Chism IIIWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Kyle WilliamsWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −3.8 | 22% | 26% | 8% | 13% | 0/2, 0 yd |
| Mason TiptonWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Saints attack right, the Patriots attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(5:54) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye Aborted. 65-G.Bradbury FUMBLES at NO 45, recovered by NE-10-D.Maye at NE 47.
Q2 5:54 · Patriots · 4th & 7 at NO 39 · gained nothing · -3.43 EP · −16.4% win probability
149 snaps placed · 9 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 158 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 149 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 153. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
9 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was NE moving 73 yards from the NE 27 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NO attacks right, NE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
158 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
158 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Patriots0
Saints3How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Patriots6Saints3Patriots7Saints3Patriots7Saints6Patriots13Saints6Patriots14Saints6Patriots14Saints12Patriots14Saints13How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Patriots14Saints16Patriots20Saints16Patriots22Saints16Patriots25Saints16Patriots25Saints19How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown.
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Patriots at Saints, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Maye | 18/26 | 261 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +17.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Maye | 9 | 28 | 3.1 | 0 | −1.4 |
| TreVeyon Henderson | 9 | 27 | 3.0 | 0 | −1.9 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kayshon Boutte | 5 | 5 | 93 | 2 | 21% | +10.8 |
| DeMario Douglas | 3 | 4 | 71 | 1 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Spillane | 4 | 7 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Elliss | 2 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Craig Woodson |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Rattler | 20/26 | 227 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +3.9 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2025_06_NE_NO
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Patriots closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 6.
Total closed 46.5; the game landed 44 — under by 2.5.
Conditions and crew
| 13 |
| 18 |
| 1.4 |
| 0 |
| −6.7 |
| 17% |
| +4.4 |
| Stefon Diggs | 3 | 3 | 28 | 0 | 13% | +3.5 |
| Mack Hollins | 2 | 3 | 28 | 0 | 13% | +2.7 |
| Hunter Henry | 3 | 3 | 27 | 0 | 13% | +1.9 |
| TreVeyon Henderson | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 8% | +0.6 |
| Austin Hooper | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 4% | +0.1 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.6 |
| Kyle Williams | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8% | −2.4 |
| 3 |
| 3 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Marcus Jones | 4 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 3 |
| Christian Gonzalez | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Carlton Davis III | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jack Gibbens | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brenden Schooler | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Harold Landry III | 1 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Barmore | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Alvin Kamara | 10 | 31 | 3.1 | 0 | −1.2 |
| Kendre Miller | 8 | 21 | 2.6 | 0 | −2.5 |
| Spencer Rattler | 4 | 20 | 5.0 | 0 | +1.8 |
| Taysom Hill | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 | +1.2 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Olave | 6 | 10 | 98 | 0 | 38% | +1.9 |
| Alvin Kamara | 5 | 5 | 45 | 0 | 19% | +2.1 |
| Rashid Shaheed | 4 | 6 | 28 | 0 | 23% | −1.2 |
| Brandin Cooks | 1 | 1 | 21 | 0 | 4% | +1.7 |
| Juwan Johnson | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 8% | −5.1 |
| Kendre Miller | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 4% | +0.6 |
| Foster Moreau | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 4% | +0.7 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davon Godchaux | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonas Sanker | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Pete Werner | 5 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Alontae Taylor | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bryan Bresee | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Isaiah Stalbird | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kool-Aid McKinstry | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Justin Reid | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Demario Davis | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Danny Stutsman | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
