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2025 Week 6 · Sun, Oct 12, 2025 · Mercedes-Benz Superdome

New England PatriotsWinner

25

New Orleans Saints

19

NE -3.5 ✓U 46.5 ✓Dome

New England Patriots 25–19. Biggest swing: Q2 0:38, NO +15% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3NO ↑NE ↓
Q2 · 0:38NE 20 — NO 16NE ball · 1st & 10NE 66%

(:38) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep left to 9-K.Boutte for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on NO-1-A.Taylor, Unnecessary Roughness, 1 yard, enforced between downs.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q2 · 0:38NO +15% win prob(:38) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep left to 9-K.Boutte for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on NO-1-A.Taylor, Unnecessary Roughness, 1 yard, enforced between downs.
  2. Q2 · 5:54NE +11% win prob(5:54) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye Aborted. 65-G.Bradbury FUMBLES at NO 45, recovered by NE-10-D.Maye at NE 47.
  3. Q1 · 14:53NO +10% win prob(14:53) (Shotgun) 2-S.Rattler pass deep right to 12-C.Olave pushed ob at NE 22 for 53 yards (23-K.Dugger).
  4. Q1 · 11:03NO +9% win prob(11:03) 10-D.Maye pass deep left to 3-D.Douglas for 53 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 12:54NO Field goal

    (12:54) 19-B.Grupe 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger.

    Score after this play: NE 0 — NO 3
  2. Q1 · 11:03NE Touchdown

    (11:03) 10-D.Maye pass deep left to 3-D.Douglas for 53 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: NE 7 — NO 3
  3. Q1 · 5:09NO Field goal

    (5:09) 19-B.Grupe 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger.

    Score after this play: NE 7 — NO 6
  4. Q1 · 0:42NE Touchdown

    (:42) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep left to 9-K.Boutte for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: NE 14 — NO 6
  5. Q2 · 9:47NO Touchdown

    (9:47) (Shotgun) 79-L.Fortner reported in as eligible. 7-T.Hill right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: NE 14 — NO 13
  6. Q2 · 1:55NO Field goal

    (1:55) 19-B.Grupe 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger.

    Score after this play: NE 14 — NO 16
  7. Q2 · 0:38NE Touchdown

    (:38) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep left to 9-K.Boutte for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on NO-1-A.Taylor, Unnecessary Roughness, 1 yard, enforced between downs. (two-point conversion good)

    Score after this play: NE 22 — NO 16
  8. Q3 · 7:29NE Field goal

    (7:29) 36-A.Borregales 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

    Score after this play: NE 25 — NO 16
  9. Q4 · 13:46NO Field goal

    (13:46) 19-B.Grupe 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger.

    Score after this play: NE 25 — NO 19

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricPatriotsSaints
Offensive plays5651
Total yards339 (edge)296
Yards per play6.1 (edge)5.8
Expected points added / play0.16 (edge)-0.04
Success rate50% (edge)45%
Dropback rate55%59%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.62 (edge)-0.03
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.42-0.06 (edge)
Third downs6/12 (edge)3/9
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)5 (edge)3
First downs gained on snaps18 (edge)15
Sacks taken1 (edge)2
Turnovers0 (edge)1

Patriots won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.16 expected points added per play vs -0.04.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NE

Drake MayeQB

18/26, 261 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

17.4 expected points added · +10.8% completion over expected

Passing · NO

Spencer RattlerQB

20/26, 227 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

3.9 expected points added · +6.6% completion over expected

Rushing · NO

Alvin KamaraRB

10 att, 31 yds, 0 TD

-1.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NE

Drake MayeQB

9 att, 28 yds, 0 TD

-1.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NO

Chris OlaveWR

6/10 for 98 yds, 0 TD

38% of team targets · 1.9 expected points added

Receiving · NE

Kayshon BoutteWR

5/5 for 93 yds, 2 TD

21% of team targets · 10.8 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1NONO 256592:10Field goal +3
2NENE 356651:58Touchdown +7
3NONO 2711485:47Field goal +3
4NENE 318534:32Touchdown +7
5NONO 4013605:51Touchdown +7
6NENE 358263:52Turnover on downs
7NONE 478223:59Field goal +3
8NENE 279751:20Touchdown +8
9NONO 272-10:31End of half
10NENE 4413557:34Field goal +3
11NONO 328313:10Punt
12NENE 24491:39Punt
13NONO 397253:56Field goal +3
14NENE 208184:14Punt
15NONO 252240:44Fumble
16NENE 49782:52Punt
17NONO 106282:08Punt
18NENE 218303:43End of game

9 of 18 drives ended in points. Longest march: Patriots gained 75 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

New England Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Drake Maye18/2626130117.4

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Drake Maye9283.10-1.4
TreVeyon Henderson9273.00-1.9
Rhamondre Stevenson13181.40-6.7

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Kayshon Boutte5593221%10.8
DeMario Douglas3471117%4.4
Mack Hollins2328013%2.7
Stefon Diggs3328013%3.5
Hunter Henry3327013%1.9
TreVeyon Henderson12908%0.6
Austin Hooper11504%0.1
Rhamondre Stevenson01004%-0.6
Kyle Williams02008%-2.4

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Robert Spillane470.000
Christian Elliss250.001
Craig Woodson330.000
Carlton Davis III140.000
Marcus Jones411.003
Christian Gonzalez410.000
Jack Gibbens130.000
Khyiris Tonga120.000
Christian Barmore120.000
Harold Landry III121.000

New Orleans Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Spencer Rattler20/262270023.9

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Alvin Kamara10313.10-1.2
Kendre Miller8212.60-2.5
Spencer Rattler4205.001.8
Taysom Hill111.011.2

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Chris Olave61098038%1.9
Alvin Kamara5545019%2.1
Rashid Shaheed4628023%-1.2
Brandin Cooks112104%1.7
Juwan Johnson221508%-5.1
Kendre Miller111104%0.6
Foster Moreau11904%0.7

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Davon Godchaux340.000
Jonas Sanker420.000
Alontae Taylor500.000
Bryan Bresee230.000
Pete Werner501.001
Kool-Aid McKinstry400.000
Isaiah Stalbird220.000
Danny Stutsman210.000
Demario Davis210.000
Justin Reid120.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
NE -3.5
Closing total
46.5
NE moneyline
-192
NO moneyline
+160

Patriots closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 6.

Total closed 46.5; the game landed 44 — under by 2.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
Roof / surface
dome · sportturf
Kickoff weather
Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee
Adrian Hill
Rest
NE 7 days · NO 7 days
Coaches
Mike Vrabel vs Kellen Moore