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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:42 AM ET · 16 to play
Philadelphia Eagles 17 at New York Giants 34. Final.
Eagles -7 upsetO 40.5 ✓
The verdict · 2025 Week 6
New York Giants 34, Eagles 17 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q4 11:36, 2nd and 10, on Cordale Flott — 22.4 win-probability points to the Giants on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 11:36 · 2nd and 10
Cordale Flott
Giants
(11:36) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left intended for 2-J.Dotson INTERCEPTED by 28-C.Flott at NYG 9. 28-C.Flott pushed ob at PHI 23 for 68 yards (26-S.Barkley).
Eagles closed -7 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
New York Giants 34–17 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q4 11:36, Giants +22.4% win probability on one snap.
22.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Lil'Jordan HumphreyGiantsQ1 11:14(11:14) (Shotgun) 6-J.Dart pass deep right to 89-L.Humphrey to PHI 22 for 34 yards (7-K.Ringo).
10.2pts
Theo JohnsonGiantsQ3 3:12(3:12) (Shotgun) 6-J.Dart pass short right to 84-T.Johnson to PHI 43 for 22 yards (8-A.Jackson; 24-A.Mukuba) [58-J.Hunt]. ** Injury Update: PHI-32-R.Blankenship has returned to the game.
8.3pts
What separated them
Third down
Giants won this one — 11 of 15 on third down, against Eagles at 1 of 9 on third down.
Giantsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Giants won this one — no giveaways, against Eagles at 2 giveaways.
Giantsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Giants won this one — +0.25 expected points per snap, against Eagles at -0.10 expected points per snap.
Giantsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Giants won this one — +0.32 expected points per dropback, against Eagles at -0.10 expected points per dropback.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 18.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 36 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Giants.
MarketModelmodel higher on Giantshigher on Eagles157 of 167 plays carry both curves
(11:36) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left intended for 2-J.Dotson INTERCEPTED by 28-C.Flott at NYG 9. 28-C.Flott pushed ob at PHI 23 for 68 yards (26-S.Barkley).
Swing +22.4 for GiantsExpected points +8.85 for GiantsThe model had Giants 10 points higher than the market did.play 138
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 11:36PHI +22% win prob(11:36) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left intended for 2-J.Dotson INTERCEPTED by 28-C.Flott at NYG 9. 28-C.Flott pushed ob at PHI 23 for 68 yards (26-S.Barkley).
1st · 11:14NYG +10% win prob(11:14) (Shotgun) 6-J.Dart pass deep right to 89-L.Humphrey to PHI 22 for 34 yards (7-K.Ringo).
3rd · 3:12NYG +8% win prob(3:12) (Shotgun) 6-J.Dart pass short right to 84-T.Johnson to PHI 43 for 22 yards (8-A.Jackson; 24-A.Mukuba) [58-J.Hunt]. ** Injury Update: PHI-32-R.Blankenship has returned to the game.
3rd · 8:42NYG +8% win prob(8:42) (Shotgun) 44-C.Skattebo right end to PHI 1 for 12 yards (30-J.Campbell; 53-Z.Baun).
2nd · 1:19PHI +8% win prob12-J.Gillan kicks 62 yards from NYG 35 to PHI 3. 37-T.Bigsby MUFFS catch, and recovers at PHI -1. 37-T.Bigsby to PHI 7 for 8 yards (47-N.Hewitt; 31-N.Jones).
3rd · 6:17PHI +8% win prob(6:17) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts sacked at PHI 38 for -9 yards (0-B.Burns).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Cam Skattebo's 4-yard rushing touchdown with 1:22 left in the 2nd put New York Giants ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
Lead
1st12:03Jake Elliott·42-yd field goal42-yard field goalholder B.Mann · snap C.Adomitis+33–0
Giants ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.10Eagles: −0.10 expected points added per play
+0.25Giants: +0.25 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.10Eagles: −0.10 expected points added per play
+0.32Giants: +0.32 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.09Eagles: −0.09 expected points added per play
+0.18Giants: +0.18 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Eagles ran 56 snaps at a 68% dropback rate against Giants’s 64 at 52%. Red-zone trips: Eagles 3, Giants 5.
NoteGiants won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.25 expected points added per play vs -0.10.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -28 pts to 20 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −7.5 vs their 16.6%, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (−1.15× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Giants7.9%
inside their normal wobble · −8.0 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (−0.96× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
NotePHI's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 36.4%, 10.2 points above their season mean of 26.2% and 1.2 times their own 8.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Philadelphia Eagles
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
68Jordan MailataT · Every snap100%57 snaps
64Brett TothG · Every snap100%57 snaps
56Tyler SteenG · Every snap100%57 snaps
51Cam JurgensC · Every snap100%57 snaps
65Lane JohnsonT · Every snap100%57 snaps
1Jalen HurtsQB · Every snap100%57 snaps
11A.J. BrownWR · Full-time96%55 snaps
6DeVonta SmithWR · Full-time96%55 snaps
88Dallas GoedertTE · Full-time89%51 snaps
26Saquon BarkleyRB · Full-time81%46 snaps
2Jahan DotsonWR · Heavy rotation75%43 snaps
83Kylen GransonTE · Situational23%13 snaps
29AJ DillonRB · Situational14%8 snaps
36Cameron LatuTE · Situational12%7 snaps
28Will ShipleyRB · Situational5%3 snaps
18John Metchie IIIWR · Situational5%3 snaps
74Fred JohnsonT · Situational2%1 snap
Inactive · 6
Mac McWilliamsCBJalen CarterDTLandon DickersonGSam HowellQBGrant CalcaterraTEXavier GipsonWR
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Tanner McKeeQB
New York Giants
48 dressed · 7 inactive
72Jermaine EluemunorT · Every snap100%69 snaps
74Greg Van RotenG · Every snap100%69 snaps
76Jon RunyanG · Every snap100%69 snaps
78Andrew ThomasT · Every snap100%69 snaps
6Jaxson DartQB · Full-time97%67 snaps
17Wan'Dale RobinsonWR · Full-time97%67 snaps
84Theo JohnsonTE · Full-time90%62 snaps
89Lil'Jordan HumphreyWR · Heavy rotation77%53 snaps
44Cam SkatteboRB · Heavy rotation71%49 snaps
82Daniel BellingerTE · Heavy rotation57%39 snaps
61John Michael SchmitzC · Heavy rotation54%37 snaps
6 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Giants attack right, the Eagles attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Eagles←Giants→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Hurts pass−17% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(11:36) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left intended for 2-J.Dotson INTERCEPTED by 28-C.Flott at NYG 9. 28-C.Flott pushed ob at PHI 23 for 68 yards (26-S.Barkley).
Q4 11:36 · Eagles · 2nd & 10 at NYG 15 · gained nothing · -8.85 EP · −17.4% win probability
155 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 167 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 155 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 162. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was PHI moving 75 yards from the PHI 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NYG attacks right, PHI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
167 of 167 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
167
EPA per play
+0.08
Success rate
47%
Yards
705
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Eagles1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR43-0.1872%
Giants1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR29+0.1952%
Giants1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR19+0.3868%
Eagles1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11+0.0736%
Giants1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR10+0.380%
Giants2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5-0.190%
Eagles1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Eagles1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Giants1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
167 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
167 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter42 plays
Eagles3Giants0
Field goal7 plays, from the Eagles 40 to the Giants 24
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 9, three deep with a matchMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.2 seconds
Eagles3Giants6
Eagles3Giants7
Touchdown9 plays, from the Giants 46 to the Eagles 20
Punt5 plays, from the Eagles 29 to the Eagles 34
Eagles3Giants13
Touchdown5 plays, from the Giants 34 to the Eagles 35
Eagles9Giants13
Eagles10Giants13
Touchdown10 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Giants 3
The period ended5 plays
2nd quarter45 plays
Punt1 play
Eagles16Giants13
Eagles17Giants13
Touchdown15 plays, from the Eagles 26 to the Giants 1
Eagles17Giants19
Eagles17Giants20
Touchdown20 plays, from the Giants 33 to the Eagles 4
The period ended9 plays, from the Eagles 7 to the Eagles 43
3rd quarter40 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Giants 29 to the Giants 37
Punt4 plays, from the Eagles 7 to the Eagles 13
Eagles17Giants26
Eagles17Giants27
Touchdown11 plays, from the Giants 44 to the Eagles 1
Punt6 plays, from the Eagles 30 to the Eagles 47
Punt11 plays, from the Giants 10 to the Eagles 42
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter40 plays
Punt2 plays, from the Eagles 10 to the Eagles 20
Punt4 plays, from the Giants 34 to the Giants 36
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSevenPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
Intercepted5 plays, from the Eagles 34 to the Giants 15
Eagles17Giants33
Eagles17Giants34
Touchdown6 plays, from the Eagles 23 to the Eagles 1
Fumble lost8 plays, from the Eagles 5 to the Giants 37
The period ended15 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Eagles 27
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
