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polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:40 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2025 Week 6 · Sun, Oct 12, 2025 · TIAA Bank Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2025 Week 6
It turned at Q2 8:42, 1st and 10, on Jaxon Smith-Njigba — 18.9 win-probability points to the Seahawks on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Seattle Seahawks 20–12. Biggest swing: Q2 8:42, Seahawks +18.9% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 8:42 · 1st and 10
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Seahawks
(8:42) 14-S.Darnold pass deep middle to 11-J.Smith-Njigba for 61 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
18.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Running the ball
Jaguars owned this one and still lost it — -0.06 expected points per carry, against Seahawks at -0.38 expected points per carry.
Jaguarsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Seahawks won this one — +0.38 expected points per dropback, against Jaguars at -0.01 expected points per dropback.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Seahawks won this one — 6 chunk plays, against Jaguars at 3 chunk plays.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Jaguars owned this one and still lost it — 4 of 16 on third down, against Seahawks at 1 of 11 on third down.
Jaguarsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 6.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 14 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jaguars.
(8:42) 14-S.Darnold pass deep middle to 11-J.Smith-Njigba for 61 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Jaxon Smith-Njigba's 61-yard touchdown catch with 8:42 left in the 2nd put Seattle Seahawks ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
Brian Thomas Jr.21-yd TD catch21-yard touchdown catchfrom Trevor Lawrence · kick no good, wide left+60–6
Jaxon Smith-Njigba61-yd TD catch61-yard touchdown catchfrom Sam DarnoldLead never changed again+710–6Tim Patrick26-yd TD catch26-yard touchdown catchfrom Trevor Lawrence · two-point no good+620–126 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Seahawkscategory by categoryJaguars
Seahawks ahead 6–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.38 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Seahawks ran 51 snaps at a 57% dropback rate against Jaguars’s 68 at 74%. Red-zone trips: Seahawks 4, Jaguars 2.
Seahawks won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.05 expected points added per play vs -0.02.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 11 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
SEA's sack or hit rate, 26.0%, is past their previous high of 20.5% in week 1 — the highest of their 6 charted games through week 6.
50 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.1 points. · +1.6σ from their own normal
JAX's early-down pass rate, 70.8%, is past their previous high of 65.9% in week 5 — the highest of their 6 charted games through week 6.
48 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.0 points. · +1.6σ from their own normal
JAX's blitz rate sent turned over: 39.1% in week 5 against 17.2% here — they sent pressure then and sat back now, a turn of 2.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
29 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.9 points. · −1.2σ from their own normal
JAX's play-action rate turned over: 8.6% in week 5 against 24.0% here — they dropped back clean then and faked the run now, a turn of 2.9 of their own weekly swings across the two.
50 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.3 points. · +0.4σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 17 pts
Over Expected room →Seahawks-1.4 ptsinside their normal wobble · +5.2 vs their -6.7 pts, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (+0.83× that swing) · 51 snaps
Jaguars5.9 ptsinside their normal wobble · +4.2 vs their 1.7 pts, and they swing ±5.7 week to week (+0.73× that swing) · 67 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 22% to 80%
Tendencies room →Seahawks50.0%right on their number · +2.2 vs their 47.8%, and they swing ±10.0 week to week (+0.22× that swing) · 40 early downs
Jaguars70.8%leaned — passed early · +14.2 vs their 56.7%, and they swing ±9.0 week to week (+1.58× that swing) · 48 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 4% to 47%
Tendencies room →Seahawks24.1%right on their number · −1.4 vs their 25.5%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (−0.17× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Jaguars24.0%right on their number · +2.2 vs their 21.8%, and they swing ±5.3 week to week (+0.40× that swing) · 50 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -24% to 119%
Fourth Down room →Seahawks—Only 0 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 29.4%.
Jaguars75.0%inside their normal wobble · +27.4 vs their 47.6%, and they swing ±28.0 week to week (+0.98× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 2% to 58%
Tendencies room →Seahawks14.0%leaned — sat back · −11.1 vs their 25.1%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (−1.33× that swing) · 50 dropbacks
Jaguars17.2%leaned — sat back · −12.8 vs their 30.1%, and they swing ±10.9 week to week (−1.17× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 0% to 32%
Tendencies room →Seahawks26.0%leaned — got home · +10.0 vs their 16.0%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (+1.64× that swing) · 50 dropbacks
Jaguars13.8%right on their number · +0.6 vs their 13.2%, and they swing ±4.2 week to week (+0.14× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
SEA's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 26.0%, 10.0 points above their season mean of 16.0% and 1.6 times their own 6.1-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Seattle Seahawks
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Jacksonville Jaguars
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · SEA
16/27, 295 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
10.5 expected points added · +7.4% completion over expected
Passing · JAX
27/42, 258 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
-0.4 expected points added · -2.1% completion over expected
Receiving · SEA
8/13 for 162 yds, 1 TD
54% of team targets · 8.2 expected points added
Receiving · JAX
8/10 for 90 yds, 1 TD
24% of team targets · 4.6 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Tim Patrick banked 7.9 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · Alpha Receiver | 30.2 | +7.2 | 82% | 97% | 54% | 53% | 8/13, 162 yd, 1 TD |
| Brian Thomas Jr.WR · Featured Receiver | 23.0 | +6.8 | 80% | 86% | 24% | 34% | 8/10, 90 yd, 1 TD |
| Sam DarnoldQB · Starter QB | 20.0 | +6.7 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 16/27, 295 yd, 2 TD · 4 car, 2 yd |
| Trevor LawrenceQB · Starter QB | 19.2 | +4.9 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 27/42, 258 yd, 2 TD · 3 car, 9 yd |
| Cooper KuppWR · Rotational Receiver | 12.0 | +5.4 | 71% | 83% | 13% | 14% | 2/3, 40 yd, 1 TD |
| AJ BarnerTE · Rotational Receiver | 10.1 | +4.7 | 78% | 76% | 13% | 12% | 3/3, 71 yd |
| Tim PatrickWR · Rotational Receiver | 9.6 | +7.9 | 18% | 14% | 2% | 5% | 1/1, 26 yd, 1 TD |
| Travis EtienneRB · Bell Cow Back | 9.5 | −3.2 | 62% | 56% | 12% | 0% | 12 car, 27 yd · 4/5, 28 yd |
| Travis HunterWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.5 | −5.1 | 78% | 88% | 17% | 8% | 4/7, 15 yd |
| Parker WashingtonWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.9 | −1.3 | 33% | 36% | 10% | 22% | 2/4, 29 yd |
| Bhayshul TutenRB | 4.8 | −1.3 | 14% | 14% | 7% | 2% | 2 car, 14 yd · 2/3, 14 yd |
| Zach CharbonnetRB · Committee Back | 4.7 | −4.9 | 60% | 62% | 4% | 1% | 12 car, 24 yd · 1/1, 13 yd |
| Kenneth Walker IIIRB · Committee Back | 4.7 | −2.0 | 35% | 28% | 4% | 1% | 10 car, 34 yd · 1/1, 3 yd |
| Dyami BrownWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.0 | −4.5 | 64% | 66% | 12% | 27% | 1 car, 7 yd · 2/5, 13 yd |
| Hunter LongTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.9 | +0.2 | 80% | 78% | 7% | 5% | 2/3, 19 yd |
| Johnny MundtTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.4 | −0.7 | 39% | 32% | 5% | 3% | 1/2, 14 yd |
| LeQuint Allen Jr.RB | 2.2 | −0.7 | 24% | 30% | 5% | 0% | 1 car, 2 yd · 1/2, 10 yd |
| Elijah ArroyoTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.6 | −1.8 | 45% | 52% | 8% | 6% | 1/2, 6 yd |
| George HolaniRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Brady RussellRB | 0.0 | — | 16% | — | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Eric SaubertTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 40% | 21% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Tory HortonWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −2.3 | 45% | 66% | 4% | 12% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Dareke YoungWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Jaguars attack right, the Seahawks attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(8:42) 14-S.Darnold pass deep middle to 11-J.Smith-Njigba for 61 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 8:42 · Seahawks · 1st & 10 at SEA 39 · gained 61 · +5.21 EP · +17.2% win probability
163 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 175 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 163 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 170. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
6 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was JAX moving 82 yards from the JAX 18 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; JAX attacks right, SEA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
175 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
175 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
Seahawks0
Jaguars6Seahawks3Jaguars6How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Seahawks9Jaguars6Seahawks10Jaguars6How the play was built
A man in motion.
From outside the pocket.
Seahawks13Jaguars6Seahawks19Jaguars6Seahawks20Jaguars6Seahawks20Jaguars12Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Seahawks at Jaguars, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | 16/27 | 295 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +10.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenneth Walker III | 10 | 34 | 3.4 | 0 | −1.4 |
| Zach Charbonnet | 12 | 24 | 2.0 | 0 | −6.8 |
| Sam Darnold |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 8 | 13 | 162 | 1 | 54% | +8.2 |
| AJ Barner | 3 | 3 | 71 | 0 | 13% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Thomas | 2 | 7 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Nick Emmanwori | 6 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ernest Jones |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | 27/42 | 258 | 2 | 0 | 7 | −0.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2025_06_SEA_JAX
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Seahawks closed -1.5 and covered, winning by 8.
Total closed 47.5; the game landed 32 — under by 15.5.
Conditions and crew
| 4 |
| 2 |
| 0.5 |
| 0 |
| −4.9 |
| +4.6 |
| Cooper Kupp | 2 | 3 | 40 | 1 | 13% | +3.4 |
| Zach Charbonnet | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 4% | +0.6 |
| Elijah Arroyo | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 8% | −1.5 |
| Kenneth Walker III | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4% | −0.2 |
| Tory Horton | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.6 |
| 4 |
| 4 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| Coby Bryant | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Shaquill Griffin | 7 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| DeMarcus Lawrence | 2 | 3 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Uchenna Nwosu | 0 | 4 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Jobe | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Byron Murphy II | 1 | 3 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Leonard Williams | 2 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Travis Etienne | 12 | 27 | 2.3 | 0 | −4.2 |
| Bhayshul Tuten | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 | −0.3 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 | +2.3 |
| Dyami Brown | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 | +1.9 |
| LeQuint Allen Jr. | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | −0.9 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Thomas Jr. | 8 | 10 | 90 | 1 | 24% | +4.6 |
| Parker Washington | 2 | 4 | 29 | 0 | 10% | +2.7 |
| Travis Etienne | 4 | 5 | 28 | 0 | 12% | +0.6 |
| Tim Patrick | 1 | 1 | 26 | 1 | 2% | +3.1 |
| Hunter Long | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 | 7% | +3.3 |
| Travis Hunter | 4 | 7 | 15 | 0 | 17% | −2.2 |
| Bhayshul Tuten | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 7% | +0.1 |
| Johnny Mundt | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 5% | +1.8 |
| Dyami Brown | 2 | 5 | 13 | 0 | 12% | −2.8 |
| LeQuint Allen Jr. | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 5% | −1.4 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Foye Oluokun | 6 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Ventrell Miller | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Andrew Wingard | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Arik Armstead | 1 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Emmanuel Ogbah | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Devin Lloyd | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Montaric Brown | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Jourdan Lewis | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Travis Hunter | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rayuan Lane III | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
