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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:20 AM ET · 16 to play
2025 Week 6 · Sun, Oct 12, 2025 · TIAA Bank Stadium
Final
SeahawksSeattle20
BY 8final margin
JaguarsJacksonville12
Seattle Seahawks 20 at Jacksonville Jaguars 12. Final.
Seahawks -1.5 ✓U 47.5 ✓
The verdict · 2025 Week 6
Seattle Seahawks 20, Jaguars 12 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 8:42, 1st and 10, on Jaxon Smith-Njigba — 18.9 win-probability points to the Seahawks on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 8:42 · 1st and 10
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Seahawks
(8:42) 14-S.Darnold pass deep middle to 11-J.Smith-Njigba for 61 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Seahawks closed -1.5 and covered, winning by 8.
Seattle Seahawks 20–12. Biggest swing: Q2 8:42, Seahawks +18.9% win probability on one snap.
18.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Brian Thomas Jr.JaguarsQ1 2:38(2:38) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep left to 7-B.Thomas to SEA 35 for 19 yards (8-C.Bryant).
10.5pts
Parker WashingtonJaguarsQ2 3:31(3:31) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 11-P.Washington pushed ob at JAX 45 for 17 yards (39-T.Okada). PENALTY on SEA-0-D.Lawrence, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at JAX 45.
10.5pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Jaguars owned this one and still lost it — -0.06 expected points per carry, against Seahawks at -0.38 expected points per carry.
Jaguarsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Seahawks won this one — +0.38 expected points per dropback, against Jaguars at -0.01 expected points per dropback.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Seahawks won this one — 6 chunk plays, against Jaguars at 3 chunk plays.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Jaguars owned this one and still lost it — 4 of 16 on third down, against Seahawks at 1 of 11 on third down.
Jaguarsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 6.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 14 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jaguars.
MarketModelmodel higher on Jaguarshigher on Seahawks165 of 175 plays carry both curves
(8:42) 14-S.Darnold pass deep middle to 11-J.Smith-Njigba for 61 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −18.9 for JaguarsExpected points −5.21 for JaguarsThe model had Jaguars 10 points higher than the market did.play 53
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 8:42JAX +19% win prob(8:42) 14-S.Darnold pass deep middle to 11-J.Smith-Njigba for 61 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 3:31JAX +11% win prob(3:31) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 11-P.Washington pushed ob at JAX 45 for 17 yards (39-T.Okada). PENALTY on SEA-0-D.Lawrence, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at JAX 45.
1st · 2:38JAX +10% win prob(2:38) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep left to 7-B.Thomas to SEA 35 for 19 yards (8-C.Bryant).
2nd · 2:00JAX +9% win prob(2:00) 5-D.Brown right end pushed ob at SEA 24 for 7 yards (24-S.Griffin).
2nd · 15:00JAX +9% win prob(15:00) 14-S.Darnold pass deep right to 11-J.Smith-Njigba ran ob at JAX 21 for 32 yards (42-A.Wingard).
2nd · 0:15JAX +8% win prob(:15) 5-J.Myers 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Jaxon Smith-Njigba's 61-yard touchdown catch with 8:42 left in the 2nd put Seattle Seahawks ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
Lead
1st1:21Brian Thomas Jr.·21-yd TD catch21-yard touchdown catchfrom Trevor Lawrencefrom Trevor Lawrence · kick no good, wide left+60–6
2nd10:40Jason Myers·24-yd field goal24-yard field goalholder M.Dickson · snap C.Stoll+33–6
2nd8:42Jaxon Smith-Njigba·61-yd TD catch61-yard touchdown catchfrom Sam Darnoldfrom Sam DarnoldLead never changed again+710–6
2nd0:15Jason Myers·53-yd field goal53-yard field goalholder M.Dickson · snap C.Stoll+313–6
3rd10:19Cooper Kupp·11-yd TD catch11-yard touchdown catchfrom Sam Darnoldfrom Sam Darnold+720–6
4th13:08Tim Patrick·26-yd TD catch26-yard touchdown catchfrom Trevor Lawrencefrom Trevor Lawrence · two-point no good+620–12
6 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Seahawkscategory by categoryJaguars
Seahawks6–2Jaguars
350Total yards274
6.9Yards per play4.0
39%Success rate38%
9%Third-down rate25%
1Red-zone touchdowns0
6Explosive plays3
12First downs17
1Sacks taken7
0Turnovers0
The read
Seahawks ahead 6–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.38 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.05Seahawks: +0.05 expected points added per play
−0.02Jaguars: −0.02 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.38Seahawks: +0.38 expected points added per play
−0.01Jaguars: −0.01 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.38Seahawks: −0.38 expected points added per play
−0.06Jaguars: −0.06 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Seahawks ran 51 snaps at a 57% dropback rate against Jaguars’s 68 at 74%. Red-zone trips: Seahawks 4, Jaguars 2.
NoteSeahawks won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.05 expected points added per play vs -0.02.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 11 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
JAX's blitz rate sent turned over: 39.1% in week 5 against 17.2% here — they sent pressure then and sat back now, a turn of 2.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
29 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.9 points.
JAX's play-action rate turned over: 8.6% in week 5 against 24.0% here — they dropped back clean then and faked the run now, a turn of 2.9 of their own weekly swings across the two.
50 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.3 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 17 pts
leaned — got home · +10.0 vs their 16.0%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (+1.64× that swing) · 50 dropbacks
Jaguars13.8%
right on their number · +0.6 vs their 13.2%, and they swing ±4.2 week to week (+0.14× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
NoteSEA's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 26.0%, 10.0 points above their season mean of 16.0% and 1.6 times their own 6.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Jaguars attack right, the Seahawks attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Seahawks←Jaguars→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
S.Darnold pass+17% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(8:42) 14-S.Darnold pass deep middle to 11-J.Smith-Njigba for 61 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 8:42 · Seahawks · 1st & 10 at SEA 39 · gained 61 · +5.21 EP · +17.2% win probability
163 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 175 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 163 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 170. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was JAX moving 82 yards from the JAX 18 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; JAX attacks right, SEA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
175 of 175 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
175
EPA per play
-0.03
Success rate
38%
Yards
619
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Jaguars1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR56-0.0479%
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR21+0.6352%
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR20-0.3470%
Jaguars1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11+0.1445%
Seahawks2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Seahawks0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR3——
Seahawks2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Seahawks1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Jaguars1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
175 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
175 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
Punt6 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Seahawks 31 to the Seahawks 34
Punt8 plays, from the Jaguars 13 to the Jaguars 41
Punt5 plays, from the Seahawks 20 to the Seahawks 27
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
Seahawks0Jaguars6
Touchdown11 plays, from the Jaguars 39 to the Seahawks 21
The period ended5 plays, from the Seahawks 28 to the Seahawks 46
2nd quarter51 plays
Seahawks3Jaguars6
Field goal7 plays, from the Seahawks 47 to the Jaguars 4
Punt5 plays, from the Jaguars 12 to the Jaguars 14
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.1 seconds
Seahawks9Jaguars6
Seahawks10Jaguars6
Touchdown2 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Jaguars 29 to the Seahawks 41
Punt4 plays, from the Seahawks 20 to the Seahawks 23
How the play was built
A man in motion.
From outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 9, three deep with a matchMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
The period ended15 plays, from the Jaguars 22 to the Seahawks 23
Seahawks13Jaguars6
Field goal7 plays, from the Seahawks 40 to the Jaguars 35
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter34 plays
Seahawks19Jaguars6
Seahawks20Jaguars6
Touchdown10 plays, from the Seahawks 23 to the Jaguars 11
Punt7 plays, from the Jaguars 31 to the Jaguars 43
Punt6 plays, from the Seahawks 19 to the Seahawks 27
The period ended11 plays, from the Jaguars 18 to the Seahawks 46
4th quarter50 plays
Seahawks20Jaguars12
Touchdown8 plays, from the Seahawks 38 to the Seahawks 26
Punt5 plays, from the Seahawks 35 to the Seahawks 43
Punt4 plays, from the Jaguars 12 to the Jaguars 17
Punt4 plays, from the Seahawks 35 to the Seahawks 41
Punt8 plays, from the Jaguars 21 to the Jaguars 41
Punt5 plays, from the Seahawks 7 to the Seahawks 21
Punt4 plays
The period ended12 plays, from the Seahawks 27 to the Jaguars 4
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
