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2025 Week 6 · Sun, Oct 12, 2025 · TIAA Bank Stadium

Seattle SeahawksWinner

20

Jacksonville Jaguars

12

SEA -1.5 ✓U 47.5 ✓

Seattle Seahawks 20–12. Biggest swing: Q2 8:42, JAX +19% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3JAX ↑SEA ↓
Q2 · 8:42SEA 9 — JAX 6SEA ball · 1st & 10SEA 54%

(8:42) 14-S.Darnold pass deep middle to 11-J.Smith-Njigba for 61 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q2 · 8:42JAX +19% win prob(8:42) 14-S.Darnold pass deep middle to 11-J.Smith-Njigba for 61 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  2. Q2 · 3:31JAX +11% win prob(3:31) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 11-P.Washington pushed ob at JAX 45 for 17 yards (39-T.Okada). PENALTY on SEA-0-D.Lawrence, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at JAX 45.
  3. Q1 · 2:38JAX +10% win prob(2:38) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep left to 7-B.Thomas to SEA 35 for 19 yards (8-C.Bryant).
  4. Q2 · 2:00JAX +9% win prob(2:00) 5-D.Brown right end pushed ob at SEA 24 for 7 yards (24-S.Griffin).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 1:21JAX Touchdown

    (1:21) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 7-B.Thomas for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: SEA 0 — JAX 6
  2. Q2 · 10:40SEA Field goal

    (10:40) 5-J.Myers 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

    Score after this play: SEA 3 — JAX 6
  3. Q2 · 8:42SEA Touchdown

    (8:42) 14-S.Darnold pass deep middle to 11-J.Smith-Njigba for 61 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: SEA 10 — JAX 6
  4. Q2 · 0:15SEA Field goal

    (:15) 5-J.Myers 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

    Score after this play: SEA 13 — JAX 6
  5. Q3 · 10:19SEA Touchdown

    (10:19) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 10-C.Kupp for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: SEA 20 — JAX 6
  6. Q4 · 13:08JAX Touchdown

    (13:08) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep right to 17-T.Patrick for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: SEA 20 — JAX 12

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricSeahawksJaguars
Offensive plays5168
Total yards350 (edge)274
Yards per play6.9 (edge)4.0
Expected points added / play0.05 (edge)-0.02
Success rate39% (edge)38%
Dropback rate57%74%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.38 (edge)-0.01
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.38-0.06 (edge)
Third downs1/114/16 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)6 (edge)3
First downs gained on snaps1217 (edge)
Sacks taken1 (edge)7
Turnovers00

Seahawks won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.05 expected points added per play vs -0.02.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · SEA

Sam DarnoldQB

16/27, 295 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

10.5 expected points added · +7.4% completion over expected

Passing · JAX

Trevor LawrenceQB

27/42, 258 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

-0.4 expected points added · -2.1% completion over expected

Rushing · SEA

Kenneth Walker IIIRB

10 att, 34 yds, 0 TD

-1.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · JAX

Travis EtienneRB

12 att, 27 yds, 0 TD

-4.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · SEA

Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR

8/13 for 162 yds, 1 TD

54% of team targets · 8.2 expected points added

Receiving · JAX

Brian Thomas Jr.WR

8/10 for 90 yds, 1 TD

24% of team targets · 4.6 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1JAXJAX 205-32:30Punt
2SEASEA 31431:25Punt
3JAXJAX 138273:31Punt
4SEASEA 204141:56Punt
5JAXJAX 399664:24Touchdown +6
6SEASEA 2811665:36Field goal +3
7JAXJAX 125-81:56Punt
8SEASEA 392610:08Touchdown +7
9JAXJAX 297301:53Punt
10SEASEA 20431:35Punt
11JAXJAX 2211414:08Missed field goal
12SEASEA 406250:48Field goal +3
13JAXJAX 22200:10End of half
14SEASEA 2310774:46Touchdown +7
15JAXJAX 317123:05Punt
16SEASEA 196212:06Punt
17JAXJAX 1815877:03Touchdown +6
18SEASEA 355-12:11Punt
19JAXJAX 12451:38Punt
20SEASEA 35431:34Punt
21JAXJAX 217251:53Punt
22SEASEA 75141:41Punt
23JAXJAX 364-81:10Punt
24SEASEA 277642:53End of game

6 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: Jaguars gained 87 scrimmage yards over 15 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Seattle Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Sam Darnold16/2729520110.5

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Kenneth Walker III10343.40-1.4
Zach Charbonnet12242.00-6.8
Sam Darnold420.50-4.9

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Jaxon Smith-Njigba813162154%8.2
AJ Barner3371013%4.6
Cooper Kupp2340113%3.4
Zach Charbonnet111304%0.6
Elijah Arroyo12608%-1.5
Kenneth Walker III11304%-0.2
Tory Horton01004%-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Nick Emmanwori630.000
Drake Thomas271.001
Ernest Jones440.001
Coby Bryant520.000
Shaquill Griffin700.000
DeMarcus Lawrence232.000
Josh Jobe310.000
Byron Murphy II132.000
Leonard Williams220.500
Uchenna Nwosu041.500

Jacksonville Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Trevor Lawrence27/42258207-0.4

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Travis Etienne12272.30-4.2
Bhayshul Tuten2147.00-0.3
Trevor Lawrence393.002.3
Dyami Brown177.001.9
LeQuint Allen Jr.122.00-0.9

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Brian Thomas Jr.81090124%4.6
Parker Washington2429010%2.7
Travis Etienne4528012%0.6
Tim Patrick112612%3.1
Hunter Long231907%3.3
Travis Hunter4715017%-2.2
Bhayshul Tuten231407%0.1
Johnny Mundt121405%1.8
Dyami Brown2513012%-2.8
LeQuint Allen Jr.121005%-1.4

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Foye Oluokun630.001
Ventrell Miller240.000
Andrew Wingard320.000
Arik Armstead131.000
Jourdan Lewis120.000
Montaric Brown210.002
Emmanuel Ogbah120.000
Devin Lloyd210.000
Travis Hunter200.000
Josh Hines-Allen110.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
SEA -1.5
Closing total
47.5
SEA moneyline
-115
JAX moneyline
-105

Seahawks closed -1.5 and covered, winning by 8.

Total closed 47.5; the game landed 32 — under by 15.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
TIAA Bank Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
76°F, wind 8 mph
Referee
Clay Martin
Rest
SEA 7 days · JAX 6 days
Coaches
Mike Macdonald vs Liam Coen