2025 Week 6 · Sun, Oct 12, 2025 · Raymond James Stadium
San Francisco 49ers
19
Tampa Bay BuccaneersWinner
30
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 30–19. Biggest swing: Q3 2:49, TB +16% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
Win probability
(2:49) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep middle to 15-T.Johnson for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Highest-leverage plays
- Q3 · 2:49TB +16% win prob(2:49) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep middle to 15-T.Johnson for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
- Q1 · 10:46SF +13% win prob(10:46) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short right intended for 84-K.Bourne INTERCEPTED by 22-K.Vildor at SF 25. 22-K.Vildor to SF 12 for 13 yards (77-D.Puni).
- Q2 · 10:22TB +12% win prob(10:22) 23-C.McCaffrey left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
- Q2 · 0:50TB +12% win prob(:50) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right to 19-K.Johnson for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on SF-20-U.Stout, Roughing the Passer, 1 yard, enforced between downs.
How the points landed
Scoring summary
- Q1 · 9:58TB Touchdown
(9:58) 1-R.White up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: SF 0 — TB 7 - Q1 · 7:58SF Field goal
(7:58) 18-E.Pineiro 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead.
Score after this play: SF 3 — TB 7 - Q2 · 10:22SF Touchdown
(10:22) 23-C.McCaffrey left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: SF 10 — TB 7 - Q2 · 5:16TB Touchdown
(5:16) 44-S.Tucker left end for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: SF 10 — TB 14 - Q2 · 2:09SF Field goal
(2:09) 18-E.Pineiro 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead.
Score after this play: SF 13 — TB 14 - Q2 · 0:50TB Touchdown
(:50) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right to 19-K.Johnson for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on SF-20-U.Stout, Roughing the Passer, 1 yard, enforced between downs.
Score after this play: SF 13 — TB 20 - Q2 · 0:06SF Field goal
(:06) 18-E.Pineiro 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead.
Score after this play: SF 16 — TB 20 - Q3 · 7:30SF Field goal
(7:30) 18-E.Pineiro 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead.
Score after this play: SF 19 — TB 20 - Q3 · 2:49TB Touchdown
(2:49) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep middle to 15-T.Johnson for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: SF 19 — TB 27 - Q4 · 2:00TB Field goal
(2:00) 4-C.McLaughlin 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
Score after this play: SF 19 — TB 30
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
| Metric | 49ers | Buccaneers |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 67 | 50 |
| Total yards | 363 (edge) | 353 |
| Yards per play | 5.4 | 7.1 (edge) |
| Expected points added / play | -0.09 | 0.29 (edge) |
| Success rate | 45% | 54% (edge) |
| Dropback rate | 70% | 50% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.10 | 0.59 (edge) |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.05 | 0.00 (edge) |
| Third downs | 7/16 (edge) | 3/8 |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 5 | 7 (edge) |
| First downs gained on snaps | 16 | 19 (edge) |
| Sacks taken | 6 | 1 (edge) |
| Turnovers | 3 | 0 (edge) |
49ers outgained Buccaneers 363–353 but lost the turnover battle 3–0. That was the game.
Who moved the needle
Top performers
Passing · SF
27/39, 347 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT
-4.4 expected points added · +7.2% completion over expected
Passing · TB
17/23, 256 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
12.1 expected points added · +7.5% completion over expected
Possession by possession
Drive chart
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TB | TB 16 | 7 | 26 | 3:00 | Punt | |
| 2 | SF | SF 16 | 3 | 6 | 1:23 | Interception | |
| 3 | TB | SF 12 | 3 | 12 | 0:43 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 4 | SF | SF 30 | 6 | 36 | 2:00 | Field goal +3 | |
| 5 | TB | TB 36 | 6 | 3 | 1:57 | Punt | |
| 6 | SF | SF 14 | 7 | 14 | 4:23 | Punt | |
| 7 | TB | TB 29 | 4 | 3 | 1:32 | Punt | |
| 8 | SF | SF 16 | 11 | 80 | 4:44 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 9 | TB | TB 32 | 10 | 68 | 5:08 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 10 | SF | SF 37 | 8 | 27 | 3:05 | Field goal +3 | |
| 11 | TB | TB 28 | 7 | 72 | 1:21 | Touchdown +6 | |
| 12 | SF | SF 29 | 7 | 47 | 0:42 | Field goal +3 | |
| 13 | TB | — | 1 | 0 | 0:02 | End of half | |
| 14 | SF | SF 24 | 15 | 80 | 7:33 | Field goal +3 | |
| 15 | TB | TB 34 | 10 | 76 | 4:47 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 16 | SF | SF 32 | 10 | 29 | 4:27 | Fumble | |
| 17 | TB | TB 14 | 8 | 55 | 4:32 | Missed field goal | |
| 18 | SF | SF 39 | 8 | 27 | 2:58 | Interception | |
| 19 | TB | TB 35 | 8 | 38 | 3:48 | Field goal +3 | |
| 20 | SF | SF 34 | 5 | 17 | 1:20 | Turnover on downs | |
| 21 | TB | SF 40 | 1 | 0 | 0:35 | End of game |
10 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: 49ers gained 80 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.
Full stat lines
Box score
San Francisco 49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mac Jones | 27/39 | 347 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -4.4 |
Rushing
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 17 | 54 | 3.2 | 1 | -1.3 |
| Mac Jones | 5 | 13 | 2.6 | 0 | -0.0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kendrick Bourne | 5 | 9 | 142 | 0 | 24% | 3.9 |
| Jake Tonges | 6 | 7 | 58 | 0 | 19% | 2.3 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 7 | 8 | 57 | 0 | 22% | 1.9 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 2 | 3 | 44 | 0 | 8% | 1.6 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 | 8% | -0.9 |
| Kyle Juszczyk | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 3% | 0.7 |
| Brian Robinson | 3 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 8% | -0.9 |
| Jauan Jennings | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 8% | -3.1 |
Defense (top contributors)
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tatum Bethune | 5 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Upton Stout | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ji'Ayir Brown | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dee Winters | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Marques Sigle | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Elliott | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Renardo Green | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Mykel Williams | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Luke Gifford | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jake Tonges | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 17/23 | 256 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 12.1 |
Rushing
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rachaad White | 17 | 65 | 3.8 | 1 | -1.0 |
| Sean Tucker | 6 | 25 | 4.2 | 1 | 1.7 |
| Baker Mayfield | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 | 0.3 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kameron Johnson | 4 | 4 | 64 | 1 | 17% | 7.6 |
| Sterling Shepard | 2 | 3 | 51 | 0 | 13% | 3.0 |
| Cade Otton | 5 | 6 | 51 | 0 | 26% | 0.1 |
| Tez Johnson | 1 | 3 | 45 | 1 | 13% | 3.8 |
| Emeka Egbuka | 2 | 4 | 24 | 0 | 17% | -0.3 |
| Rachaad White | 3 | 3 | 21 | 0 | 13% | 0.2 |
Defense (top contributors)
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antoine Winfield Jr. | 5 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| SirVocea Dennis | 6 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jacob Parrish | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Lavonte David | 4 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tykee Smith | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Chris Braswell | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jamel Dean | 3 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Anthony Nelson | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Vita Vea | 1 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Yaya Diaby | 3 | 0 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
Closing number vs result
Betting context
- Closing spread
- TB -3.5
- Closing total
- 46.5
- SF moneyline
- +160
- TB moneyline
- -192
Buccaneers closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 11.
Total closed 46.5; the game landed 49 — over by 2.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
- Venue
- Raymond James Stadium
- Roof / surface
- outdoors · grass
- Kickoff weather
- 82°F, wind 10 mph
- Referee
- Brad Rogers
- Rest
- SF 10 days · TB 7 days
- Coaches
- Kyle Shanahan vs Todd Bowles