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DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:57 AM ET · 16 to play
2025 Week 6 · Sun, Oct 12, 2025 · Raymond James Stadium
Final
49ersSan Francisco19
BY 11final margin
BuccaneersTampa Bay30
San Francisco 49ers 19 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers 30. Final.
Buccaneers -3.5 ✓O 46.5 ✓
The verdict · 2025 Week 6
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 30, 49ers 19 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q3 2:49, 2nd and 11, on Tez Johnson — 16.0 win-probability points to the Buccaneers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 2:49 · 2nd and 11
Tez Johnson
Buccaneers
(2:49) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep middle to 15-T.Johnson for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Buccaneers closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 11.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 30–19. Biggest swing: Q3 2:49, Buccaneers +16.0% win probability on one snap.
16.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Kindle VildorBuccaneersQ1 10:46(10:46) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short right intended for 84-K.Bourne INTERCEPTED by 22-K.Vildor at SF 25. 22-K.Vildor to SF 12 for 13 yards (77-D.Puni).
12.7pts
Christian McCaffrey49ersQ2 10:22(10:22) 23-C.McCaffrey left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
12.3pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Buccaneers won this one — no giveaways, against 49ers at 3 giveaways.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Buccaneers won this one — +0.59 expected points per dropback, against 49ers at -0.10 expected points per dropback.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Buccaneers won this one — +0.29 expected points per snap, against 49ers at -0.09 expected points per snap.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Buccaneers won this one — 54% of snaps stayed on schedule, against 49ers at 45% of snaps stayed on schedule.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 3.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 10 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about 49ers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Buccaneershigher on 49ers156 of 166 plays carry both curves
(2:49) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep middle to 15-T.Johnson for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +16.0 for BuccaneersExpected points +4.56 for BuccaneersThe model had 49ers 2 points higher than the market did.play 117
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 2:49TB +16% win prob(2:49) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep middle to 15-T.Johnson for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 10:46SF +13% win prob(10:46) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short right intended for 84-K.Bourne INTERCEPTED by 22-K.Vildor at SF 25. 22-K.Vildor to SF 12 for 13 yards (77-D.Puni).
2nd · 10:22TB +12% win prob(10:22) 23-C.McCaffrey left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 0:50TB +12% win prob(:50) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right to 19-K.Johnson for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on SF-20-U.Stout, Roughing the Passer, 1 yard, enforced between downs.
2nd · 15:00TB +10% win prob(15:00) 10-M.Jones pass deep middle to 84-K.Bourne to TB 33 for 56 yards (25-J.Parrish).
2nd · 3:38TB +8% win prob(3:38) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass deep left to 83-M.Valdes-Scantling to TB 40 for 19 yards (31-A.Winfield).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Sean Tucker's 9-yard rushing touchdown with 5:16 left in the 2nd put Tampa Bay Buccaneers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
4th2:00Chase McLaughlin·45-yd field goal45-yard field goalholder R.Dixon · snap E.Deckers+319–30
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
49erscategory by categoryBuccaneers
49ers2–7Buccaneers
363Total yards353
5.4Yards per play7.1
45%Success rate54%
44%Third-down rate38%
1Red-zone touchdowns2
5Explosive plays7
16First downs19
6Sacks taken1
3Turnovers0
The read
Buccaneers ahead 7–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.59 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.0949ers: −0.09 expected points added per play
+0.29Buccaneers: +0.29 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.1049ers: −0.10 expected points added per play
+0.59Buccaneers: +0.59 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.0549ers: −0.05 expected points added per play
+0.00Buccaneers: +0.00 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: 49ers ran 67 snaps at a 70% dropback rate against Buccaneers’s 50 at 50%. Red-zone trips: 49ers 2, Buccaneers 4.
Note49ers outgained Buccaneers 363-353 but lost the turnover battle 3-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
SF's sack or hit rate, 4.0%, was the lowest of the 30 team-games charted in week 6 — 1.9 points clear of the next team along.
25 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.2 points.
SF's early-down pass rate, 69.4%, is past their previous high of 64.6% in week 3 — the highest of their 6 charted games through week 6.
49 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 19 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −5.5 vs their 9.5%, and they swing ±5.2 week to week (−1.07× that swing) · 25 dropbacks
Buccaneers17.0%
inside their normal wobble · +3.7 vs their 13.3%, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (+0.53× that swing) · 47 dropbacks
NoteTB's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 21.3%, 16.4 points below their season mean of 37.7% and 1.8 times their own 9.2-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
San Francisco 49ers
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
75Connor ColbyG · Every snap100%69 snaps
77Dominick PuniG · Every snap100%69 snaps
68Colton McKivitzT · Every snap100%69 snaps
64Jake BrendelC · Every snap100%69 snaps
71Trent WilliamsT · Every snap100%69 snaps
10Mac JonesQB · Every snap100%69 snaps
23Christian McCaffreyRB · Full-time93%64 snaps
88Jake TongesTE · Full-time83%57 snaps
84Kendrick BourneWR · Full-time80%55 snaps
15Jauan JenningsWR · Heavy rotation77%53 snaps
83Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR · Heavy rotation61%42 snaps
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 5 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Buccaneers attack right, the 49ers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
49ers←Buccaneers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
B.Mayfield pass+16% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(2:49) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep middle to 15-T.Johnson for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 2:49 · Buccaneers · 2nd & 11 at SF 45 · gained 45 · +4.56 EP · +15.7% win probability
154 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 166 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 154 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 161. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was SF moving 84 yards from the SF 16 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TB attacks right, SF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
166 of 166 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
166
EPA per play
+0.07
Success rate
49%
Yards
715
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
49ers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR39-0.2179%
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR26+0.4781%
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR21+0.0914%
49ers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR14+0.0843%
49ers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR9+0.1144%
49ers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Buccaneers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Buccaneers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
49ers2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
166 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
166 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter42 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Buccaneers 16 to the Buccaneers 37
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.7 seconds
Intercepted3 plays, from the 49ers 16 to the 49ers 22
49ers0Buccaneers6
49ers0Buccaneers7
Touchdown3 plays, from the 49ers 12 to the 49ers 2
49ers3Buccaneers7
Field goal6 plays, from the 49ers 30 to the Buccaneers 24
Punt6 plays, from the Buccaneers 36 to the Buccaneers 47
Punt8 plays, from the 49ers 14 to the 49ers 30
Punt5 plays, from the Buccaneers 29 to the Buccaneers 37
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter48 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
49ers9Buccaneers7
49ers10Buccaneers7
Touchdown11 plays, from the 49ers 11 to the Buccaneers 1
49ers10Buccaneers13
49ers10Buccaneers14
Touchdown10 plays, from the Buccaneers 32 to the 49ers 9
49ers13Buccaneers14
Field goal8 plays, from the 49ers 37 to the Buccaneers 36
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runWheelCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
49ers13Buccaneers20
Touchdown7 plays, from the Buccaneers 28 to the 49ers 34
49ers16Buccaneers20
Field goal10 plays, from the 49ers 29 to the Buccaneers 24
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter35 plays
49ers19Buccaneers20
Field goal17 plays, from the 49ers 24 to the Buccaneers 11
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read, the receiver created it himself.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.2 seconds
49ers19Buccaneers26
49ers19Buccaneers27
Touchdown11 plays, from the Buccaneers 34 to the 49ers 44
The period ended7 plays, from the 49ers 32 to the Buccaneers 38
4th quarter41 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Buccaneers 44 to the Buccaneers 39
No good8 plays, from the Buccaneers 14 to the 49ers 31
Intercepted11 plays, from the 49ers 39 to the Buccaneers 29
49ers19Buccaneers30
Field goal11 plays, from the Buccaneers 35 to the 49ers 27
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the 49ers 34 to the 49ers 38
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
