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polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:41 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2025 Week 6 · Sun, Oct 12, 2025 · Raymond James Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2025 Week 6
It turned at Q3 2:49, 2nd and 11, on Tez Johnson — 16.0 win-probability points to the Buccaneers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 30–19. Biggest swing: Q3 2:49, Buccaneers +16.0% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 2:49 · 2nd and 11
Tez Johnson
Buccaneers
(2:49) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep middle to 15-T.Johnson for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
16.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Giveaways
Buccaneers won this one — no giveaways, against 49ers at 3 giveaways.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Buccaneers won this one — +0.59 expected points per dropback, against 49ers at -0.10 expected points per dropback.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Buccaneers won this one — +0.29 expected points per snap, against 49ers at -0.09 expected points per snap.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Buccaneers won this one — 54% of snaps stayed on schedule, against 49ers at 45% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 3.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 10 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about 49ers.
(2:49) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep middle to 15-T.Johnson for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Sean Tucker's 9-yard rushing touchdown with 5:16 left in the 2nd put Tampa Bay Buccaneers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Kameron Johnson34-yd TD catch34-yard touchdown catchfrom Baker Mayfield · two-point no good+613–2010 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
49erscategory by categoryBuccaneers
Buccaneers ahead 7–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.59 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: 49ers ran 67 snaps at a 70% dropback rate against Buccaneers’s 50 at 50%. Red-zone trips: 49ers 2, Buccaneers 4.
49ers outgained Buccaneers 363-353 but lost the turnover battle 3-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
SF's sack or hit rate, 4.0%, was the lowest of the 30 team-games charted in week 6 — 1.9 points clear of the next team along.
25 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.2 points. · −1.1σ from their own normal
TB's blitz rate sent, 21.3%, is past their previous low of 27.7% in week 1 — the lowest of their 6 charted games through week 6.
47 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.2 points. · −1.8σ from their own normal
SF's play-action rate, 12.8%, is past their previous low of 20.4% in week 5 — the lowest of their 6 charted games through week 6.
47 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.8 points. · −1.4σ from their own normal
SF's early-down pass rate, 69.4%, is past their previous high of 64.6% in week 3 — the highest of their 6 charted games through week 6.
49 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.6 points. · +1.2σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 19 pts
Over Expected room →49ers3.5 ptsinside their normal wobble · +4.2 vs their -0.6 pts, and they swing ±5.9 week to week (+0.70× that swing) · 67 snaps
Buccaneers-3.8 ptsright on their number · −0.5 vs their -3.3 pts, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (−0.05× that swing) · 49 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 22% to 87%
Tendencies room →49ers69.4%leaned — passed early · +14.4 vs their 55.0%, and they swing ±11.6 week to week (+1.24× that swing) · 49 early downs
Buccaneers46.3%inside their normal wobble · −7.9 vs their 54.2%, and they swing ±12.7 week to week (−0.62× that swing) · 41 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 40%
Tendencies room →49ers12.8%leaned — dropped back clean · −9.7 vs their 22.4%, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (−1.42× that swing) · 47 dropbacks
Buccaneers20.0%right on their number · +2.9 vs their 17.1%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (+0.36× that swing) · 25 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -30% to 113%
Fourth Down room →49ers—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 36.3%.
Buccaneers0.0%leaned — took the kick · −45.1 vs their 45.1%, and they swing ±26.4 week to week (−1.71× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 62%
Tendencies room →49ers24.0%right on their number · +0.5 vs their 23.5%, and they swing ±9.8 week to week (+0.05× that swing) · 25 dropbacks
Buccaneers21.3%leaned — sat back · −16.4 vs their 37.7%, and they swing ±9.2 week to week (−1.78× that swing) · 47 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 31%
Tendencies room →49ers4.0%leaned — stayed blocked · −5.5 vs their 9.5%, and they swing ±5.2 week to week (−1.07× that swing) · 25 dropbacks
Buccaneers17.0%inside their normal wobble · +3.7 vs their 13.3%, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (+0.53× that swing) · 47 dropbacks
TB's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 21.3%, 16.4 points below their season mean of 37.7% and 1.8 times their own 9.2-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
San Francisco 49ers
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · SF
27/39, 347 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT
-4.4 expected points added · +7.2% completion over expected
Passing · TB
17/23, 256 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
12.1 expected points added · +7.5% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Kameron Johnson banked 9.3 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffreyRB · Bell Cow Back | 24.1 | −0.5 | 93% | 89% | 22% | 6% | 17 car, 54 yd, 1 TD · 7/8, 57 yd |
| Baker MayfieldQB · Starter QB | 19.6 | +9.2 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 17/23, 256 yd, 2 TD · 3 car, 14 yd |
| Kendrick BourneWR · Featured Receiver | 19.2 | +2.8 | 80% | 85% | 24% | 40% | 5/9, 142 yd |
| Rachaad WhiteRB · Bell Cow Back | 17.6 | +1.8 | 77% | 84% | 13% | 0% | 17 car, 65 yd, 1 TD · 3/3, 21 yd |
| Kameron JohnsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 16.4 | +9.3 | 49% | 48% | 17% | 18% | 4/4, 64 yd, 1 TD |
| Jake TongesTE · Featured Receiver | 11.8 | +0.8 | 83% | 91% | 19% | 11% | 6/7, 58 yd |
| Tez JohnsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 11.5 | +4.7 | 72% | 84% | 13% | 36% | 1/3, 45 yd, 1 TD |
| Mac JonesQB · Starter QB | 11.2 | −7.5 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 27/39, 347 yd, 2 INT · 5 car, 13 yd |
| Cade OttonTE · Alpha Receiver | 10.1 | +1.3 | 100% | 100% | 26% | 10% | 5/6, 51 yd |
| Sean TuckerRB | 8.5 | +5.0 | 23% | 16% | 0% | — | 6 car, 25 yd, 1 TD |
| Sterling ShepardWR · Rotational Receiver | 7.1 | +1.8 | 49% | 80% | 13% | 17% | 2/3, 51 yd |
| Demarcus RobinsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.4 | +1.1 | 19% | 21% | 8% | 15% | 2/3, 44 yd |
| Emeka EgbukaWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.4 | −2.7 | 53% | 64% | 17% | 19% | 2/4, 24 yd |
| Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.2 | 0.0 | 61% | 66% | 8% | 11% | 2/3, 22 yd |
| Brian RobinsonRB | 3.8 | −1.6 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Kyle JuszczykRB | 1.9 | +0.2 | 36% | 26% | 3% | 2% | 1/1, 9 yd |
| Jauan JenningsWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.7 | −3.1 | 77% | 79% | 8% | 15% | 1/3, 7 yd |
| Luke FarrellTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 39% | 28% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Brayden WillisTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| Skyy MooreWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Devin CulpTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Ryan MillerWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 25% | 12% | 0% | — | No touches. |
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 5 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Buccaneers attack right, the 49ers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(2:49) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep middle to 15-T.Johnson for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 2:49 · Buccaneers · 2nd & 11 at SF 45 · gained 45 · +4.56 EP · +15.7% win probability
154 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 166 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 154 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 161. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
10 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was SF moving 84 yards from the SF 16 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TB attacks right, SF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
166 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
166 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
49ers0
Buccaneers649ers0Buccaneers749ers3Buccaneers7How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
49ers9Buccaneers749ers10Buccaneers749ers10Buccaneers1349ers10Buccaneers1449ers13Buccaneers14How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
49ers13Buccaneers2049ers16Buccaneers2049ers19Buccaneers20How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read, the receiver created it himself.
49ers19Buccaneers2649ers19Buccaneers2749ers19Buccaneers30Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: 49ers at Buccaneers, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mac Jones | 27/39 | 347 | 0 | 2 | 6 | −4.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 17 | 54 | 3.2 | 1 | −1.3 |
| Mac Jones | 5 | 13 | 2.6 | 0 | −0.0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kendrick Bourne | 5 | 9 | 142 | 0 | 24% | +3.9 |
| Jake Tonges | 6 | 7 | 58 | 0 | 19% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tatum Bethune | 5 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ji'Ayir Brown | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Upton Stout |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 17/23 | 256 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +12.1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2025_06_SF_TB
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Buccaneers closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 11.
Total closed 46.5; the game landed 49 — over by 2.5.
Conditions and crew
| +2.3 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 7 | 8 | 57 | 0 | 22% | +1.9 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 2 | 3 | 44 | 0 | 8% | +1.6 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 | 8% | −0.9 |
| Kyle Juszczyk | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 3% | +0.7 |
| Brian Robinson | 3 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 8% | −0.9 |
| Jauan Jennings | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 8% | −3.1 |
| 3 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Dee Winters | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Marques Sigle | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Renardo Green | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Mykel Williams | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Luke Gifford | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Elliott | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jake Tonges | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rachaad White | 17 | 65 | 3.8 | 1 | −1.0 |
| Sean Tucker | 6 | 25 | 4.2 | 1 | +1.7 |
| Baker Mayfield | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 | +0.3 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kameron Johnson | 4 | 4 | 64 | 1 | 17% | +7.6 |
| Cade Otton | 5 | 6 | 51 | 0 | 26% | +0.1 |
| Sterling Shepard | 2 | 3 | 51 | 0 | 13% | +3.0 |
| Tez Johnson | 1 | 3 | 45 | 1 | 13% | +3.8 |
| Emeka Egbuka | 2 | 4 | 24 | 0 | 17% | −0.3 |
| Rachaad White | 3 | 3 | 21 | 0 | 13% | +0.2 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antoine Winfield Jr. | 5 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| SirVocea Dennis | 6 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jacob Parrish | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Tykee Smith | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Lavonte David | 4 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Braswell | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jamel Dean | 3 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Vita Vea | 1 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Anthony Nelson | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Yaya Diaby | 3 | 0 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
