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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:23 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2025 Week 6 · Sun, Oct 12, 2025 · Allegiant Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2025 Week 6
It turned at Q2 6:12, 3rd and 7, on Cam Ward — 9.3 win-probability points to the Raiders on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Las Vegas Raiders 20–10. Biggest swing: Q2 6:12, Raiders +9.3% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 6:12 · 3rd and 7
Cam Ward
Raiders
(6:12) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward sacked at TEN 3 for -9 yards (45-D.White). FUMBLES (45-D.White) [45-D.White], RECOVERED by LV-9-T.Wilson at TEN 2.
9.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Giveaways
Raiders won this one — 2 giveaways, against Titans at 4 giveaways.
Raidersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Raiders won this one — 6 of 13 on third down, against Titans at 3 of 13 on third down.
Raidersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Titans owned this one and still lost it — 6 chunk plays, against Raiders at 3 chunk plays.
Titansthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Raiders won this one — +0.02 expected points per dropback, against Titans at -0.34 expected points per dropback.
Raidersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 1.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 7 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Titans.
(6:12) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward sacked at TEN 3 for -9 yards (45-D.White). FUMBLES (45-D.White) [45-D.White], RECOVERED by LV-9-T.Wilson at TEN 2.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Daniel Carlson's 50-yard field goal with 4:11 left in the 1st put Las Vegas Raiders ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Daniel Carlson50-yd field goal50-yard field goalholder A.Cole · snap J.BobenmoyerLead never changed again+30–36 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Titanscategory by categoryRaiders
Raiders ahead 7–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Titans ran 58 snaps at a 74% dropback rate against Raiders’s 54 at 46%. Red-zone trips: Titans 2, Raiders 4.
Raiders won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.18 expected points added per play vs -0.31.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
LV's early-down pass rate, 35.0%, was the lowest of the 30 team-games charted in week 6 — 2.5 points clear of the next team along.
40 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 13.4 points. · −1.7σ from their own normal
TEN's early-down pass rate, 74.4%, was the highest of the 30 team-games charted in week 6 — 0.3 points clear of the next team along.
43 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.4 points. · +1.5σ from their own normal
TEN's sack or hit rate, 28.0%, is past their previous high of 17.6% in week 2 — the highest of their 6 charted games through week 6.
25 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.9 points. · +2.0σ from their own normal
LV's blitz rate sent, 14.0%, is past their previous low of 17.1% in week 5 — the lowest of their 6 charted games through week 6.
43 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.7 points. · −1.2σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 22 pts
Over Expected room →Titans-2.5 ptsright on their number · +1.4 vs their -3.9 pts, and they swing ±5.4 week to week (+0.25× that swing) · 58 snaps
Raiders-3.8 ptsright on their number · −2.2 vs their -1.6 pts, and they swing ±9.1 week to week (−0.24× that swing) · 54 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 24% to 92%
Tendencies room →Titans74.4%leaned — passed early · +15.1 vs their 59.3%, and they swing ±10.4 week to week (+1.46× that swing) · 43 early downs
Raiders35.0%leaned — ran early · −22.9 vs their 57.9%, and they swing ±13.4 week to week (−1.71× that swing) · 40 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 48%
Tendencies room →Titans11.6%inside their normal wobble · −7.5 vs their 19.1%, and they swing ±8.1 week to week (−0.93× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Raiders40.0%leaned — faked the run · +14.4 vs their 25.6%, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (+1.69× that swing) · 25 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -38% to 143%
Fourth Down room →Titans—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 35.2%.
Raiders33.3%inside their normal wobble · −21.2 vs their 54.5%, and they swing ±34.7 week to week (−0.61× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 3% to 48%
Tendencies room →Titans20.0%inside their normal wobble · −5.5 vs their 25.5%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (−0.63× that swing) · 25 dropbacks
Raiders14.0%leaned — sat back · −8.1 vs their 22.0%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (−1.21× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -6% to 33%
Tendencies room →Titans28.0%off script — got home · +12.1 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±5.9 week to week (+2.04× that swing) · 25 dropbacks
Raiders20.9%inside their normal wobble · +7.0 vs their 13.9%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (+0.93× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
TEN's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 28.0%, 12.1 points above their season mean of 15.9% and 2.0 times their own 5.9-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Tennessee Titans
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Las Vegas Raiders
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Who moved the needle
Passing · TEN
Cam WardQB
26/38, 222 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
-14.7 expected points added · +5.5% completion over expected
Passing · LV
17/23, 174 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
0.6 expected points added · +2.8% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Michael Mayer banked 3.9 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ashton JeantyRB · Bell Cow Back | 16.6 | −6.4 | 79% | 84% | 17% | 0% | 23 car, 75 yd, 1 TD · 2/4, 11 yd |
| Michael MayerTE · Alpha Receiver | 16.0 | +3.9 | 92% | 96% | 30% | 33% | 5/7, 50 yd, 1 TD |
| Tre TuckerWR · Featured Receiver | 12.0 | +3.8 | 92% | 96% | 22% | 22% | 5/5, 70 yd |
| Van JeffersonWR · Rotational Receiver | 11.5 | +0.9 | 74% | 75% | 18% | 45% | 4/6, 75 yd |
| Chig OkonkwoTE | 10.6 | +2.1 | — | — | — | — | No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash. |
| Tyjae SpearsRB · Receiving Back | 9.0 | +0.5 | 59% | 66% | 12% | 0% | 5 car, 31 yd · 4/4, 19 yd |
| Geno SmithQB · Starter QB | 8.7 | −1.4 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 17/23, 174 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 4 car, -3 yd |
| Jakobi MeyersWR · Rotational Receiver | 7.9 | +1.4 | 90% | 92% | 17% | 59% | 4/4, 39 yd |
| David Martin-RobinsonTE · Rotational Receiver | 7.1 | +3.1 | 15% | 7% | 3% | 0% | 1/1, 1 yd, 1 TD |
| Cam WardQB · Starter QB | 6.9 | −6.4 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 26/38, 222 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT |
| Tony PollardRB · Bell Cow Back | 6.7 | −0.5 | 43% | 34% | 6% | 2% | 10 car, 34 yd · 2/2, 13 yd |
| Elic AyomanorWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.7 | −1.0 | 93% | 91% | 15% | 32% | 3/5, 27 yd |
| Gunnar HelmTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.5 | −1.9 | 48% | 36% | 9% | 7% | 2/3, 15 yd |
| Chimere DikeWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.8 | −1.4 | 56% | 64% | 9% | 1% | 2/3, 8 yd |
| Calvin RidleyWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.8 | +1.3 | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Ian ThomasTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.4 | +0.4 | 30% | 20% | 4% | 5% | 1/1, 4 yd |
| Tyler LockettWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.0 | −4.1 | 33% | 36% | 9% | 10% | 1/3, 0 yd |
| Dylan LaubeRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Jack BechWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.0 | 75% | 84% | 4% | 0% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Alex BachmanWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Justin ShorterWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Julius ChestnutRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| Raheem MostertRB | -0.4 | −3.2 | 21% | 16% | 0% | — | 5 car, -4 yd |
6 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Raiders attack right, the Titans attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(6:12) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward sacked at TEN 3 for -9 yards (45-D.White). FUMBLES (45-D.White) [45-D.White], RECOVERED by LV-9-T.Wilson at TEN 2.
Q2 6:12 · Titans · 3rd & 7 at TEN 12 · lost 10 · -5.42 EP · −11.0% win probability
151 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 163 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 151 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 158. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
6 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was LV moving 70 yards from the LV 30 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LV attacks right, TEN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
163 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
163 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Titans0
Raiders3How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Titans0Raiders9Titans0Raiders10Titans0Raiders16Titans0Raiders17Titans3Raiders17Titans3Raiders20Titans9Raiders20Titans10Raiders20Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Titans at Raiders, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Ward | 26/38 | 222 | 1 | 1 | 6 | −14.7 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Pollard | 10 | 34 | 3.4 | 0 | −3.5 |
| Tyjae Spears | 5 | 31 | 6.2 | 0 | +0.3 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Van Jefferson | 4 | 6 | 75 | 0 | 18% | +3.5 |
| Chig Okonkwo | 6 | 6 | 46 | 0 | 18% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cedric Gray | 3 | 9 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| L'Jarius Sneed | 5 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Xavier Woods |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 17/23 | 174 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +0.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2025_06_TEN_LV
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Raiders closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 10.
Total closed 41.5; the game landed 30 — under by 11.5.
Conditions and crew
| +1.9 |
| Elic Ayomanor | 3 | 5 | 27 | 0 | 15% | +1.2 |
| Tyjae Spears | 4 | 4 | 19 | 0 | 12% | −0.3 |
| Calvin Ridley | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 | 3% | +2.5 |
| Gunnar Helm | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 | 9% | +0.3 |
| Tony Pollard | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 6% | +0.9 |
| Chimere Dike | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 9% | −4.0 |
| David Martin-Robinson | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3% | +0.6 |
| Tyler Lockett | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9% | −3.6 |
| 3 |
| 3 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Jeffery Simmons | 4 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dre'Mont Jones | 1 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Roger McCreary | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Quandre Diggs | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cody Barton | 0 | 3 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Oluwafemi Oladejo | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jihad Ward | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Ashton Jeanty | 23 | 75 | 3.3 | 1 | −3.7 |
| Geno Smith | 4 | -3 | -0.8 | 0 | −3.6 |
| Raheem Mostert | 5 | -4 | -0.8 | 0 | −5.0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tre Tucker | 5 | 5 | 70 | 0 | 22% | +6.0 |
| Michael Mayer | 5 | 7 | 50 | 1 | 30% | −0.7 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 4 | 4 | 39 | 0 | 17% | +3.6 |
| Ashton Jeanty | 2 | 4 | 11 | 0 | 17% | −1.3 |
| Ian Thomas | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 4% | −1.3 |
| Jack Bech | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −1.7 |
| Alex Cappa | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.3 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin White | 4 | 4 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Jeremy Chinn | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eric Stokes | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kyu Blu Kelly | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyree Wilson | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Elandon Roberts | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jamal Adams | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Darnay Holmes | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Isaiah Pola-Mao | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonah Laulu | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
