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Atlanta Falcons 10 at San Francisco 49ers 20. Final.
49ers -1.5 ✓U 46.5 ✓
The verdict · 2025 Week 7
San Francisco 49ers 20, Falcons 10 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 8:20, 4th and 1, on Michael Penix Jr. — 16.8 win-probability points to the 49ers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 8:20 · 4th and 1
Michael Penix Jr.
49ers
(8:20) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass incomplete short right to 5-D.London (26-C.Lucas). ** Injury Update: ATL-25-T.Allgeier has returned to the game.
49ers closed -1.5 and covered, winning by 10.
San Francisco 49ers 20–10. Biggest swing: Q4 8:20, 49ers +16.8% win probability on one snap.
16.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Kaden EllissFalconsQ2 9:54(9:54) 10-M.Jones pass short middle intended for 15-J.Jennings INTERCEPTED by 55-K.Elliss at ATL 18. 55-K.Elliss to ATL 34 for 16 yards (10-M.Jones).
16.7pts
Michael Penix Jr.49ersQ2 1:32(1:32) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix sacked at ATL 39 for -7 yards (47-B.Huff). FUMBLES (47-B.Huff) [47-B.Huff], RECOVERED by SF-95-A.Collins at ATL 40.
11.7pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
49ers won this one — 8 chunk plays, against Falcons at 1 chunk play.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
49ers won this one — 2 touchdowns on 2 trips, against Falcons at 1 touchdown on 2 trips.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
49ers won this one — 9 of 14 on third down, against Falcons at 5 of 11 on third down.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
49ers won this one — 1 giveaway, against Falcons at 2 giveaways.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 7 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about 49ers.
MarketModelmodel higher on 49ershigher on Falcons155 of 165 plays carry both curves
(8:20) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass incomplete short right to 5-D.London (26-C.Lucas). ** Injury Update: ATL-25-T.Allgeier has returned to the game.
Swing +16.8 for 49ersExpected points +3.83 for 49ersModel and market agree here.play 134
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 8:20ATL +17% win prob(8:20) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass incomplete short right to 5-D.London (26-C.Lucas). ** Injury Update: ATL-25-T.Allgeier has returned to the game.
2nd · 9:54ATL +17% win prob(9:54) 10-M.Jones pass short middle intended for 15-J.Jennings INTERCEPTED by 55-K.Elliss at ATL 18. 55-K.Elliss to ATL 34 for 16 yards (10-M.Jones).
2nd · 1:32ATL +12% win prob(1:32) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix sacked at ATL 39 for -7 yards (47-B.Huff). FUMBLES (47-B.Huff) [47-B.Huff], RECOVERED by SF-95-A.Collins at ATL 40.
3rd · 3:27SF +9% win prob(3:27) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass deep left to 82-C.Washington to ATL 47 for 17 yards (28-D.Luter).
2nd · 2:00SF +9% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short left to 23-C.McCaffrey to ATL 1 for 13 yards (31-X.Watts).
4th · 10:51SF +8% win prob(10:51) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass deep right to 8-K.Pitts ran ob at SF 44 for 19 yards (6-M.Mustapha).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Christian McCaffrey's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 1:50 left in the 2nd put San Francisco 49ers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Lead
2nd12:59John Parker Romo·38-yd field goal38-yard field goalholder B.Pinion · snap L.McCullough+33–0
2nd1:50Christian McCaffrey·1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+73–7
2nd0:43Eddy Pineiro·55-yd field goal55-yard field goalholder T.Morstead · snap J.Weeks+33–10
3rd10:14Eddy Pineiro·43-yd field goal43-yard field goalholder T.Morstead · snap J.Weeks+33–13
3rd6:34Bijan Robinson·10-yd TD catch10-yard touchdown catchfrom Michael Penix Jr.from Michael Penix Jr.+710–13
49ers ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — explosive plays.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.11Falcons: −0.11 expected points added per play
+0.0349ers: +0.03 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.14Falcons: −0.14 expected points added per play
+0.0949ers: +0.09 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.06Falcons: −0.06 expected points added per play
−0.0149ers: −0.01 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Falcons ran 60 snaps at a 70% dropback rate against 49ers’s 64 at 44%. Red-zone trips: Falcons 2, 49ers 2.
Note49ers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.03 expected points added per play vs -0.11.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
ATL's play-action rate, 4.8%, was the lowest of the 30 team-games charted in week 7 — 2.7 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of 13.3% in week 3.
42 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.8 points.
SF's early-down pass rate, 36.0%, is past their previous low of 51.9% in week 1 — the lowest of their 7 charted games through week 7.
A 2.9-swing turn from week 6.
50 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -24 pts to 15 pts
right on their number · −0.2 vs their 14.5%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (−0.04× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
49ers11.9%
right on their number · +2.4 vs their 9.5%, and they swing ±5.2 week to week (+0.46× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
NoteSF's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -11.5 pts, 10.9 points below their season mean of -0.6 pts and 1.8 times their own 5.9-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The 49ers attack right, the Falcons attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Falcons←49ers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
M.Jones pass−18% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(9:54) 10-M.Jones pass short middle intended for 15-J.Jennings INTERCEPTED by 55-K.Elliss at ATL 18. 55-K.Elliss to ATL 34 for 16 yards (10-M.Jones).
Q2 9:54 · 49ers · 2nd & 8 at ATL 23 · gained nothing · -5.53 EP · −18.4% win probability
153 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 165 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 153 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 160. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was SF moving 80 yards from the SF 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SF attacks right, ATL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
165 of 165 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
165
EPA per play
-0.02
Success rate
46%
Yards
616
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Falcons1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR30-0.4873%
49ers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR27-0.2537%
Falcons1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR23+0.2061%
49ers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR22+0.2855%
49ers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR10+0.2510%
Falcons2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7+0.4357%
49ers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5+0.0580%
snapsepapass rate
165 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
165 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter34 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Falcons 22 to the Falcons 31
Punt10 plays, from the 49ers 16 to the Falcons 42
The period ended18 plays, from the Falcons 20 to the 49ers 24
2nd quarter48 plays
Falcons349ers0
Field goal4 plays, from the 49ers 21 to the 49ers 15
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted, dropped.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one back, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.5 seconds
Intercepted8 plays, from the 49ers 35 to the Falcons 23
Punt6 plays, from the Falcons 34 to the 49ers 48
Falcons349ers6
Falcons349ers7
Touchdown15 plays, from the 49ers 20 to the Falcons 1
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Falcons 31 to the Falcons 46
Falcons349ers10
Field goal5 plays, from the Falcons 40 to the Falcons 36
The period ended6 plays, from the Falcons 21 to the 49ers 22
3rd quarter39 plays
Falcons349ers13
Field goal12 plays, from the 49ers 32 to the Falcons 24
Falcons949ers13
Falcons1049ers13
Touchdown8 plays, from the 49ers 48 to the 49ers 10
Punt5 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the 49ers 34
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
Punt11 plays, from the Falcons 33 to the 49ers 42
The period ended3 plays, from the 49ers 4 to the 49ers 8
4th quarter44 plays
Punt5 plays, from the 49ers 15 to the 49ers 35
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.0 seconds
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.9 seconds
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Falcons 17 to the 49ers 35
Falcons1049ers19
Falcons1049ers20
Touchdown15 plays, from the 49ers 36 to the Falcons 4
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Falcons 23 to the Falcons 46
The period ended7 plays, from the Falcons 45 to the Falcons 26
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
