2025 Week 7 · Sun, Oct 19, 2025 · Levi's Stadium

Atlanta Falcons

San Francisco 49ersWinner

SF -1.5 ✓U 46.5 ✓49ers closed -1.5 and covered, winning by 10.

San Francisco 49ers 20–10. Biggest swing: Q4 8:20, ATL +17% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 8:20ATL 10 — SF 13ATL ball · 4th & 1SF 63%

(8:20) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass incomplete short right to 5-D.London (26-C.Lucas). ** Injury Update: ATL-25-T.Allgeier has returned to the game.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 8:20ATL +17% win prob(8:20) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass incomplete short right to 5-D.London (26-C.Lucas). ** Injury Update: ATL-25-T.Allgeier has returned to the game.
Q2 · 9:54ATL +17% win prob(9:54) 10-M.Jones pass short middle intended for 15-J.Jennings INTERCEPTED by 55-K.Elliss at ATL 18. 55-K.Elliss to ATL 34 for 16 yards (10-M.Jones).
Q2 · 1:32ATL +12% win prob(1:32) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix sacked at ATL 39 for -7 yards (47-B.Huff). FUMBLES (47-B.Huff) [47-B.Huff], RECOVERED by SF-95-A.Collins at ATL 40.
Q3 · 3:27SF +9% win prob(3:27) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass deep left to 82-C.Washington to ATL 47 for 17 yards (28-D.Luter).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q2 · 12:59ATL Field goal
(12:59) 39-J.Romo 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
Score after this play: ATL 3 — SF 0
Q2 · 1:50SF Touchdown
(1:50) 23-C.McCaffrey up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: ATL 3 — SF 7
Q2 · 0:43SF Field goal
(:43) 18-E.Pineiro 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead.
Score after this play: ATL 3 — SF 10
Q3 · 10:14SF Field goal
(10:14) 18-E.Pineiro 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead.
Score after this play: ATL 3 — SF 13
Q3 · 6:34ATL Touchdown
(6:34) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short right to 7-B.Robinson for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: ATL 10 — SF 13
Q4 · 2:31SF Touchdown
(2:31) 23-C.McCaffrey right tackle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: ATL 10 — SF 20

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Falcons	49ers
Offensive plays	60	64
Total yards	292	326 (edge)
Yards per play	4.9	5.1 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.11	0.03 (edge)
Success rate	43%	50% (edge)
Dropback rate	70%	44%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.14	0.09 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.06	-0.01 (edge)
Third downs	5/11	9/14 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	1	8 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	16	22 (edge)
Sacks taken	2	1 (edge)
Turnovers	2	1 (edge)

49ers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.03 expected points added per play vs -0.11.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · ATL

Michael Penix Jr.QB

21/38, 241 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

-6.7 expected points added · -5.8% completion over expected

Passing · SF

Mac JonesQB

17/26, 152 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

2.0 expected points added · +1.2% completion over expected

Rushing · SF

Christian McCaffreyRB

24 att, 129 yds, 2 TD

3.6 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · ATL

Bijan RobinsonRB

14 att, 40 yds, 0 TD

-2.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · SF

Christian McCaffreyRB

7/8 for 72 yds, 0 TD

33% of team targets · 9.8 expected points added

Receiving · ATL

Darnell MooneyWR

3/5 for 68 yds, 0 TD

14% of team targets · 3.9 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	ATL	ATL 22	5	9	1:52	Punt
2	SF	SF 16	10	42	4:34	Punt
3	ATL	ATL 20	19	70	10:40	Field goal +3
4	SF	SF 35	8	42	3:08	Interception
5	ATL	ATL 34	5	3	1:48	Punt
6	SF	SF 20	14	80	6:10	Touchdown +7
7	ATL	ATL 31	4	9	0:20	Fumble
8	SF	ATL 40	4	3	0:50	Field goal +3
9	ATL	ATL 21	4	57	0:38	End of half
10	SF	SF 32	12	43	4:51	Field goal +3
11	ATL	SF 48	8	48	3:41	Touchdown +7
12	SF	SF 25	5	7	2:10	Punt
13	ATL	ATL 33	9	30	3:20	Punt
14	SF	SF 4	7	31	3:10	Punt
15	ATL	ATL 17	8	48	4:32	Turnover on downs
16	SF	SF 36	12	59	5:50	Touchdown +7
17	ATL	ATL 23	8	18	0:59	Fumble
18	SF	ATL 45	4	19	1:27	End of game

6 of 18 drives ended in points. Longest march: 49ers gained 80 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Atlanta Falcons

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Michael Penix Jr.	21/38	241	1	0	2	-6.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Bijan Robinson	14	40	2.9	-2.3
Tyler Allgeier	4	16	4.0	1.1
Michael Penix Jr.	2	6	3.0	1.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Darnell Mooney	3	5	68	0	14%	3.9
Kyle Pitts	7	10	62	0	28%	2.8
Bijan Robinson	6	8	52	1	22%	3.3
Drake London	4	10	42	0	28%	-8.4
Casey Washington	1	2	17	0	6%	1.5
Charlie Woerner	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Jessie Bates	4	6	0.0	0	0
JD Bertrand	4	6	0.0	0	0
Kaden Elliss	4	5	0.0	1	1
Xavier Watts	3	6	0.0	0	0
Mike Hughes	3	2	0.0	0	1
Zach Harrison	3	1	1.0	0	0
Ta'Quon Graham	3	1	0.0	0	0
Arnold Ebiketie	2	2	0.0	0	0
Sam Roberts	2	1	0.0	0	0
Ruke Orhorhoro	1	2	0.0	0	0

San Francisco 49ers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Mac Jones	17/26	152	0	1	1	2.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Christian McCaffrey	24	129	5.4	2	3.6
Brian Robinson	9	36	4.0	0	-1.9
Mac Jones	5	11	2.2	0	-1.2
Kyle Juszczyk	1	-2	-2.0	0	-2.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Christian McCaffrey	7	8	72	33%	9.8
Jauan Jennings	4	7	31	29%	-5.6
Skyy Moore	1	1	15	4%	0.8
Kendrick Bourne	2	2	14	8%	1.9
Luke Farrell	1	1	11	4%	0.5
Kyle Juszczyk	1	1	10	4%	0.8
George Kittle	0	2	0	8%	-0.9
Demarcus Robinson	0	1	0	4%	-1.5
Connor Colby	1	1	-1	4%	-1.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Tatum Bethune	4	6	0.0	0
Malik Mustapha	3	3	0.0	0
Bryce Huff	2	3	1.0	0
Ji'Ayir Brown	5	0	0.0	0
Darrell Luter Jr.	4	1	0.0	0
Malik Turner	3	0	0.0	0
Jason Pinnock	2	1	0.0	0
Sam Okuayinonu	1	2	1.0	0
Dee Winters	3	0	0.0	0
Deommodore Lenoir	2	1	0.0	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: SF -1.5
Closing total: 46.5
ATL moneyline: -105
SF moneyline: -115

49ers closed -1.5 and covered, winning by 10.

Total closed 46.5; the game landed 30 — under by 16.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Levi's Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 74°F, wind 5 mph
Referee: Ron Torbert
Rest: ATL 6 days · SF 7 days
Coaches: Raheem Morris vs Kyle Shanahan