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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:23 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2025 Week 7 · Sun, Oct 19, 2025 · Levi's Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2025 Week 7
It turned at Q4 8:20, 4th and 1, on Michael Penix Jr. — 16.8 win-probability points to the 49ers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
San Francisco 49ers 20–10. Biggest swing: Q4 8:20, 49ers +16.8% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 8:20 · 4th and 1
Michael Penix Jr.
49ers
(8:20) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass incomplete short right to 5-D.London (26-C.Lucas). ** Injury Update: ATL-25-T.Allgeier has returned to the game.
16.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Explosive plays
49ers won this one — 8 chunk plays, against Falcons at 1 chunk play.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
49ers won this one — 2 touchdowns on 2 trips, against Falcons at 1 touchdown on 2 trips.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
49ers won this one — 9 of 14 on third down, against Falcons at 5 of 11 on third down.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
49ers won this one — 1 giveaway, against Falcons at 2 giveaways.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 2.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 7 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about 49ers.
(8:20) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass incomplete short right to 5-D.London (26-C.Lucas). ** Injury Update: ATL-25-T.Allgeier has returned to the game.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Christian McCaffrey's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 1:50 left in the 2nd put San Francisco 49ers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
6 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Falconscategory by category49ers
49ers ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — explosive plays.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Falcons ran 60 snaps at a 70% dropback rate against 49ers’s 64 at 44%. Red-zone trips: Falcons 2, 49ers 2.
49ers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.03 expected points added per play vs -0.11.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
ATL's play-action rate, 4.8%, was the lowest of the 30 team-games charted in week 7 — 2.7 points clear of the next team along.
42 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.8 points. · −1.5σ from their own normal
SF's pass rate over expected, −11.5 pts, is past their previous low of −6.6 pts in week 4 — the lowest of their 7 charted games through week 7.
64 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.9 points. · −1.8σ from their own normal
ATL's early-down pass rate, 70.2%, is past their previous high of 62.0% in week 3 — the highest of their 6 charted games through week 7.
47 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.9 points. · +1.7σ from their own normal
SF's early-down pass rate, 36.0%, is past their previous low of 51.9% in week 1 — the lowest of their 7 charted games through week 7.
50 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.6 points. · −1.6σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -24 pts to 15 pts
Over Expected room →Falcons2.4 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +8.8 vs their -6.3 pts, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (+1.33× that swing) · 60 snaps
49ers-11.5 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −10.9 vs their -0.6 pts, and they swing ±5.9 week to week (−1.83× that swing) · 64 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 20% to 85%
Tendencies room →Falcons70.2%leaned — passed early · +19.7 vs their 50.5%, and they swing ±11.9 week to week (+1.66× that swing) · 47 early downs
49ers36.0%leaned — ran early · −19.0 vs their 55.0%, and they swing ±11.6 week to week (−1.64× that swing) · 50 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 49%
Tendencies room →Falcons4.8%leaned — dropped back clean · −16.2 vs their 21.0%, and they swing ±10.8 week to week (−1.50× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
49ers14.3%leaned — dropped back clean · −8.1 vs their 22.4%, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (−1.19× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -47% to 118%
Fourth Down room →Falcons—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 35.8%.
49ers—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 36.3%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 70%
Tendencies room →Falcons42.9%right on their number · +5.2 vs their 37.7%, and they swing ±12.5 week to week (+0.41× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
49ers28.6%inside their normal wobble · +5.1 vs their 23.5%, and they swing ±9.8 week to week (+0.52× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 30%
Tendencies room →Falcons14.3%right on their number · −0.2 vs their 14.5%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (−0.04× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
49ers11.9%right on their number · +2.4 vs their 9.5%, and they swing ±5.2 week to week (+0.46× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
SF's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -11.5 pts, 10.9 points below their season mean of -0.6 pts and 1.8 times their own 5.9-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Atlanta Falcons
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
San Francisco 49ers
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · ATL
21/38, 241 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
-6.7 expected points added · -5.8% completion over expected
Passing · SF
17/26, 152 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT
2.0 expected points added · +1.2% completion over expected
Receiving · SF
7/8 for 72 yds, 0 TD
33% of team targets · 9.8 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Christian McCaffrey banked 10.5 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffreyRB · Bell Cow Back | 39.1 | +10.5 | 75% | 82% | 33% | 9% | 24 car, 129 yd, 2 TD · 7/8, 72 yd |
| Bijan RobinsonRB · Bell Cow Back | 21.2 | +2.1 | 88% | 90% | 22% | 1% | 14 car, 40 yd · 6/8, 52 yd, 1 TD |
| Kyle PittsTE · Alpha Receiver | 13.2 | −1.8 | 82% | 93% | 28% | 22% | 7/10, 62 yd |
| Michael Penix Jr.QB · Starter QB | 12.2 | −0.8 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 21/38, 241 yd, 1 TD · 2 car, 6 yd |
| Darnell MooneyWR · Rotational Receiver | 9.8 | +1.3 | 83% | 86% | 14% | 36% | 3/5, 68 yd |
| Drake LondonWR · Alpha Receiver | 8.2 | −6.0 | 98% | 98% | 28% | 32% | 4/10, 42 yd |
| Jauan JenningsWR · Alpha Receiver | 7.1 | −3.7 | 85% | 93% | 29% | 38% | 4/7, 31 yd |
| Mac JonesQB · Starter QB | 5.2 | −4.6 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 17/26, 152 yd, 1 INT · 5 car, 11 yd |
| Brian RobinsonRB | 3.6 | −0.5 | 25% | 18% | 0% | — | 9 car, 36 yd |
| Kendrick BourneWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.4 | +0.3 | 78% | 82% | 8% | 10% | 2/2, 14 yd |
| Casey WashingtonWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.7 | −0.7 | 17% | 17% | 6% | 10% | 1/2, 17 yd |
| Skyy MooreWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.5 | +1.0 | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Luke FarrellTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.1 | +0.4 | 33% | 25% | 4% | 3% | 1/1, 11 yd |
| Kyle JuszczykRB | 1.8 | −0.1 | 58% | 43% | 4% | 4% | 1 car, -2 yd · 1/1, 10 yd |
| Tyler AllgeierRB | 1.6 | −0.3 | 23% | 19% | 0% | — | 4 car, 16 yd |
| KhaDarel HodgeWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Jamal AgnewWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Charlie WoernerTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.4 | 58% | 43% | 3% | 0% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Isaac GuerendoRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| George KittleTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −3.3 | 81% | 86% | 8% | 13% | 0/2, 0 yd |
| Demarcus RobinsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −2.2 | 34% | 43% | 4% | 30% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Malik TurnerWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 15% | — | 0% | — | No touches. |
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The 49ers attack right, the Falcons attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(9:54) 10-M.Jones pass short middle intended for 15-J.Jennings INTERCEPTED by 55-K.Elliss at ATL 18. 55-K.Elliss to ATL 34 for 16 yards (10-M.Jones).
Q2 9:54 · 49ers · 2nd & 8 at ATL 23 · gained nothing · -5.53 EP · −18.4% win probability
153 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 165 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 153 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 160. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
6 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was SF moving 80 yards from the SF 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SF attacks right, ATL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
165 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
165 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Falcons3
49ers0How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted, dropped.
Falcons349ers6Falcons349ers7How the play was built
A man in motion.
Falcons349ers10Falcons349ers13Falcons949ers13Falcons1049ers13How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
Falcons1049ers19Falcons1049ers20Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Falcons at 49ers, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Penix Jr. | 21/38 | 241 | 1 | 0 | 2 | −6.7 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson | 14 | 40 | 2.9 | 0 | −2.3 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 0 | +1.1 |
| Michael Penix Jr. |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darnell Mooney | 3 | 5 | 68 | 0 | 14% | +3.9 |
| Kyle Pitts | 7 | 10 | 62 | 0 | 28% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JD Bertrand | 4 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jessie Bates | 4 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kaden Elliss |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mac Jones | 17/26 | 152 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +2.0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2025_07_ATL_SF
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
49ers closed -1.5 and covered, winning by 10.
Total closed 46.5; the game landed 30 — under by 16.5.
Conditions and crew
| 2 |
| 6 |
| 3.0 |
| 0 |
| +1.1 |
| +2.8 |
| Bijan Robinson | 6 | 8 | 52 | 1 | 22% | +3.3 |
| Drake London | 4 | 10 | 42 | 0 | 28% | −8.4 |
| Casey Washington | 1 | 2 | 17 | 0 | 6% | +1.5 |
| Charlie Woerner | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.4 |
| 4 |
| 5 |
| 0.0 |
| 1 |
| 1 |
| Xavier Watts | 3 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Hughes | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Ta'Quon Graham | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Arnold Ebiketie | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Zach Harrison | 3 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sam Roberts | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ruke Orhorhoro | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 24 | 129 | 5.4 | 2 | +3.6 |
| Brian Robinson | 9 | 36 | 4.0 | 0 | −1.9 |
| Mac Jones | 5 | 11 | 2.2 | 0 | −1.2 |
| Kyle Juszczyk | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 | −2.3 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 7 | 8 | 72 | 0 | 33% | +9.8 |
| Jauan Jennings | 4 | 7 | 31 | 0 | 29% | −5.6 |
| Skyy Moore | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 | 4% | +0.8 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 8% | +1.9 |
| Luke Farrell | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 4% | +0.5 |
| Kyle Juszczyk | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 4% | +0.8 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −1.5 |
| George Kittle | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8% | −0.9 |
| Connor Colby | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 4% | −1.2 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tatum Bethune | 4 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Malik Mustapha | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ji'Ayir Brown | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Darrell Luter Jr. | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bryce Huff | 2 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jason Pinnock | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Deommodore Lenoir | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Dee Winters | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sam Okuayinonu | 1 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Malik Turner | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
