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2025 Week 7 · Sun, Oct 19, 2025 · MetLife Stadium

Carolina PanthersWinner

13

New York Jets

6

NYJ -1.5 upsetU 39.5 ✓

Carolina Panthers 13–6. Biggest swing: Q3 3:56, NYJ +10% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3NYJ ↑CAR ↓
Q3 · 3:56CAR 13 — NYJ 3CAR ball · 4th & 24CAR 72%

(3:56) 6-S.Martin punts 68 yards to NYJ 21, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-87-B.Tremayne.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q3 · 3:56NYJ +10% win prob(3:56) 6-S.Martin punts 68 yards to NYJ 21, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-87-B.Tremayne.
  2. Q2 · 2:12NYJ +9% win prob(2:12) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 4-T.McMillan to NYJ 34 for 11 yards (29-J.Brownlee).
  3. Q2 · 14:56CAR +9% win prob(14:56) 5-R.Dowdle up the middle to CAR 49 for no gain (9-W.McDonald; 53-M.Walker).
  4. Q4 · 4:34CAR +9% win prob(4:34) (Shotgun) 2-T.Taylor pass deep right intended for 83-J.Reynolds INTERCEPTED by 8-Ja.Horn at CAR 40. 8-Ja.Horn to CAR 40 for no gain (83-J.Reynolds).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 5:45CAR Field goal

    (5:45) 10-R.Fitzgerald 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.

    Score after this play: CAR 3 — NYJ 0
  2. Q2 · 11:06NYJ Field goal

    (11:06) 6-N.Folk 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.

    Score after this play: CAR 3 — NYJ 3
  3. Q2 · 1:18CAR Touchdown

    (1:18) 9-B.Young pass short left to 17-X.Legette for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CAR 10 — NYJ 3
  4. Q3 · 10:43CAR Field goal

    (10:43) 10-R.Fitzgerald 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.

    Score after this play: CAR 13 — NYJ 3
  5. Q4 · 6:30NYJ Field goal

    (6:30) 6-N.Folk 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.

    Score after this play: CAR 13 — NYJ 6

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricPanthersJets
Offensive plays6860
Total yards304 (edge)220
Yards per play4.5 (edge)3.7
Expected points added / play-0.06 (edge)-0.26
Success rate40% (edge)30%
Dropback rate53%73%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.09 (edge)-0.33
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.03 (edge)-0.04
Third downs5/177/15 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)6 (edge)2
First downs gained on snaps17 (edge)11
Sacks taken2 (edge)6
Turnovers0 (edge)2

Panthers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.06 expected points added per play vs -0.26.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CAR

Bryce YoungQB

15/25, 138 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

0.1 expected points added · -3.2% completion over expected

Passing · NYJ

Tyrod TaylorQB

10/22, 126 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT

-4.3 expected points added · -8.8% completion over expected

Rushing · CAR

Rico DowdleRB

17 att, 79 yds, 0 TD

1.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NYJ

Breece HallRB

11 att, 38 yds, 0 TD

-0.9 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CAR

Xavier LegetteWR

9/11 for 92 yds, 1 TD

35% of team targets · 3.4 expected points added

Receiving · NYJ

Tyler JohnsonWR

3/3 for 60 yds, 0 TD

10% of team targets · 5.4 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1NYJNYJ 457222:44Turnover on downs
2CARCAR 3413546:34Field goal +3
3NYJNYJ 268173:01Punt
4CARCAR 77422:51Turnover on downs
5NYJCAR 497233:48Field goal +3
6CARCAR 356172:10Punt
7NYJNYJ 134111:15Punt
8CARCAR 48441:30Punt
9NYJNYJ 44112:26Punt
10CARCAR 488572:30Touchdown +7
11NYJNYJ 338131:11End of half
12CARNYJ 4911384:20Field goal +3
13NYJNYJ 338213:34Punt
14CARCAR 8733:21Punt
15NYJNYJ 2110413:11Interception
16CARCAR 2012426:41Punt
17NYJNYJ 159612:27Field goal +3
18CARCAR 35541:45Punt
19NYJNYJ 28200:13Interception
20CARCAR 40481:39Punt
21NYJNYJ 14401:05Punt
22CARCAR 435351:44End of game

5 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Jets gained 61 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a field goal.

Full stat lines

Box score

Carolina Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Bryce Young15/251381010.1
Andy Dalton4/760001-2.7

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Rico Dowdle17794.601.2
Chuba Hubbard14312.20-2.7
Bryce Young2105.00-0.5
Jimmy Horn Jr.177.000.5
Andy Dalton2-2-1.00-3.0

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Xavier Legette91192135%3.4
Tetairoa McMillan3533016%1.4
Chuba Hubbard2324010%0.8
Mitchell Evans2324010%1.6
Rico Dowdle121706%-0.1
Jimmy Horn Jr.12806%-0.2
Tommy Tremble11003%-0.9
Ja'Tavion Sanders02006%-1.9
Jalen Coker02006%-1.3

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Derrick Brown432.003
Christian Rozeboom250.000
Nick Scott250.000
Tre'von Moehrig331.000
Mike Jackson310.003
A'Shawn Robinson311.000
Trevin Wallace220.001
Chau Smith-Wade300.000
Bobby Brown III200.000
D.J. Wonnum200.000

New York Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Tyrod Taylor10/22126023-4.3
Justin Fields6/1246003-9.2

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Breece Hall11383.50-0.9
Justin Fields4225.500.7
Tyrod Taylor3113.70-1.3
Isaiah Davis2105.00-0.3

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Tyler Johnson3360010%5.4
Mason Taylor3531016%2.1
Josh Reynolds3929029%-7.6
Isaiah Davis2422013%0.6
Allen Lazard2316010%-0.3
Breece Hall2314010%-0.2
Arian Smith130010%-2.8
Jeremy Ruckert01003%-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Jamien Sherwood631.001
Quinnen Williams440.000
Andre Cisco510.000
Jarvis Brownlee Jr.420.000
Francisco Mauigoa240.000
Brandon Stephens500.002
Jowon Briggs311.000
Jermaine Johnson II220.000
Malachi Moore310.001
Sauce Gardner220.001

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
NYJ -1.5
Closing total
39.5
CAR moneyline
-108
NYJ moneyline
-112

Jets closed -1.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 39.5; the game landed 19 — under by 20.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
MetLife Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
71°F, wind 13 mph
Referee
Brad Rogers
Rest
CAR 7 days · NYJ 7 days
Coaches
Dave Canales vs Aaron Glenn