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(3:56) 6-S.Martin punts 68 yards to NYJ 21, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-87-B.Tremayne.
Swing −10.2 for JetsExpected points −1.90 for JetsThe model had Panthers 4 points higher than the market did.play 114
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 3:56NYJ +10% win prob(3:56) 6-S.Martin punts 68 yards to NYJ 21, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-87-B.Tremayne.
2nd · 2:12NYJ +9% win prob(2:12) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 4-T.McMillan to NYJ 34 for 11 yards (29-J.Brownlee).
2nd · 14:56CAR +9% win prob(14:56) 5-R.Dowdle up the middle to CAR 49 for no gain (9-W.McDonald; 53-M.Walker).
4th · 4:34CAR +9% win prob(4:34) (Shotgun) 2-T.Taylor pass deep right intended for 83-J.Reynolds INTERCEPTED by 8-Ja.Horn at CAR 40. 8-Ja.Horn to CAR 40 for no gain (83-J.Reynolds).
2nd · 13:31NYJ +9% win prob(13:31) (Shotgun) 7-J.Fields left end to CAR 37 for 4 yards (21-N.Scott). NYJ-7-J.Fields was injured during the play. PENALTY on CAR-21-N.Scott, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at CAR 37.
1st · 12:19CAR +8% win prob(12:19) (Shotgun) 7-J.Fields pass incomplete short right to 83-J.Reynolds.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Xavier Legette's 3-yard touchdown catch with 1:18 left in the 2nd put Carolina Panthers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
Lead
1st5:45Ryan Fitzgerald·30-yd field goal30-yard field goalholder S.Martin · snap J.Jansen+33–0
2nd11:06Nick Folk·34-yd field goal34-yard field goalholder A.McNamara · snap T.Hennessy+33–3
3rd10:43Ryan Fitzgerald·29-yd field goal29-yard field goalholder S.Martin · snap J.Jansen+313–3
4th6:30Nick Folk·47-yd field goal47-yard field goalholder A.McNamara · snap T.Hennessy+313–6
5 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Pantherscategory by categoryJets
Panthers8–1Jets
304Total yards220
4.5Yards per play3.7
40%Success rate30%
29%Third-down rate47%
1Red-zone touchdowns0
6Explosive plays2
17First downs11
2Sacks taken6
0Turnovers2
The read
Panthers ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.06Panthers: −0.06 expected points added per play
−0.26Jets: −0.26 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.09Panthers: −0.09 expected points added per play
−0.33Jets: −0.33 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.03Panthers: −0.03 expected points added per play
−0.04Jets: −0.04 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Panthers ran 68 snaps at a 53% dropback rate against Jets’s 60 at 73%. Red-zone trips: Panthers 3, Jets 1.
NotePanthers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.06 expected points added per play vs -0.26.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
NYJ's early-down pass rate turned over: 37.5% in week 6 against 70.5% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.7 of their own weekly swings across the two.
44 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.1 points.
NYJ's pass rate over expected turned over: −18.5 pts in week 6 against −0.3 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
60 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.5 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -31 pts to 18 pts
off script — got home · +11.1 vs their 9.3%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (+2.02× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
Jets19.4%
leaned — got home · +9.7 vs their 9.8%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (+1.50× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
NoteCAR's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 20.5%, 11.1 points above their season mean of 9.3% and 2.0 times their own 5.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 5 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Jets attack right, the Panthers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Panthers←Jets→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
B.Young pass+11% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(2:12) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 4-T.McMillan to NYJ 34 for 11 yards (29-J.Brownlee).
Q2 2:12 · Panthers · 4th & 3 at NYJ 45 · gained 11 · +2.85 EP · +11.2% win probability
161 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 174 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 161 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 169. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
5 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was NYJ moving 56 yards from the NYJ 15 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NYJ attacks right, CAR attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
174 of 174 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
174
EPA per play
-0.11
Success rate
36%
Yards
522
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Jets1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR44-0.2068%
Panthers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR39+0.0154%
Panthers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR17-0.0147%
Jets1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9-0.5578%
Panthers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR7-0.5914%
Jets2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Panthers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Jets2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Jets1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Panthers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Panthers1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Panthers0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
174 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
174 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter35 plays
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Jets 45 to the Panthers 33
Panthers3Jets0
Field goal13 plays, from the Panthers 34 to the Jets 10
Punt8 plays, from the Jets 26 to the Jets 43
The period ended6 plays, from the Panthers 7 to the Panthers 47
2nd quarter53 plays
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxNine defenders
Turnover on downs2 plays
Panthers3Jets3
Field goal8 plays, from the Panthers 49 to the Panthers 16
Punt7 plays, from the Panthers 35 to the Jets 48
Punt4 plays, from the Jets 13 to the Jets 16
Punt5 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Jets 4 to the Jets 11
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.8 seconds
Panthers9Jets3
Panthers10Jets3
Touchdown9 plays, from the Panthers 48 to the Jets 3
The period ended13 plays, from the Jets 33 to the Panthers 44
3rd quarter38 plays
Panthers13Jets3
Field goal11 plays, from the Jets 49 to the Jets 11
Punt8 plays, from the Jets 33 to the Panthers 41
Punt7 plays, from the Panthers 8 to the Panthers 25
Intercepted10 plays, from the Jets 21 to the Panthers 38
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter48 plays
Punt13 plays, from the Panthers 22 to the Jets 29
Panthers13Jets6
Field goal10 plays, from the Jets 15 to the Panthers 29
Punt6 plays
Intercepted2 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Panthers 40 to the Panthers 48
Punt4 plays
The period ended9 plays, from the Panthers 43 to the Jets 22
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
