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Game Center
2025 Week 7 · Sun, Oct 19, 2025 · State Farm Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2025 Week 7
It turned at Q4 2:32, 4th and 2, on Tucker Kraft — 22.5 win-probability points to the Packers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Green Bay Packers 27–23. Biggest swing: Q4 2:32, Packers +22.5% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 2:32 · 4th and 2
Tucker Kraft
Packers
(2:32) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 85-T.Kraft pushed ob at ARI 14 for 15 yards (42-D.Taylor-Demerson). ** Injury Update: ARI-10-J.Sweat has returned to the game.
22.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Giveaways
Packers won this one — no giveaways, against Cardinals at 2 giveaways.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Cardinals owned this one and still lost it — 7 of 14 on third down, against Packers at 3 of 10 on third down.
Cardinalsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Packers won this one — 50% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Cardinals at 41% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Packers won this one — 3 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Cardinals at 2 touchdowns on 4 trips.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 20.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 35 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Cardinals.
(2:32) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 85-T.Kraft pushed ob at ARI 14 for 15 yards (42-D.Taylor-Demerson). ** Injury Update: ARI-10-J.Sweat has returned to the game.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Josh Jacobs's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 1:54 left in the 4th put Green Bay Packers ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Packerscategory by categoryCardinals
Packers ahead 5–4 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Packers ran 52 snaps at a 63% dropback rate against Cardinals’s 70 at 66%. Red-zone trips: Packers 4, Cardinals 4.
Cardinals outgained Packers 330-263 but lost the turnover battle 2-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
2 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
GB's play-action rate, 15.2%, is past their previous low of 21.7% in week 4 — the lowest of their 6 charted games through week 7.
33 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.9 points. · −1.4σ from their own normal
ARI's sack or hit rate turned over: 18.2% in week 6 against 6.1% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
33 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.0 points. · −1.1σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -28 pts to 20 pts
Over Expected room →Packers0.8 ptsinside their normal wobble · +5.1 vs their -4.3 pts, and they swing ±9.4 week to week (+0.55× that swing) · 52 snaps
Cardinals3.2 ptsright on their number · −0.5 vs their 3.7 pts, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (−0.09× that swing) · 70 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 19% to 93%
Tendencies room →Packers59.0%inside their normal wobble · +8.7 vs their 50.3%, and they swing ±11.9 week to week (+0.73× that swing) · 39 early downs
Cardinals59.3%inside their normal wobble · −7.2 vs their 66.5%, and they swing ±9.9 week to week (−0.73× that swing) · 54 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 53%
Tendencies room →Packers15.2%leaned — dropped back clean · −11.0 vs their 26.1%, and they swing ±7.9 week to week (−1.40× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Cardinals23.9%right on their number · −1.4 vs their 25.3%, and they swing ±10.8 week to week (−0.13× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -30% to 110%
Fourth Down room →Packers75.0%leaned — went for it · +35.3 vs their 39.7%, and they swing ±27.4 week to week (+1.29× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
Cardinals—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 50.0%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 1% to 48%
Tendencies room →Packers19.6%inside their normal wobble · −4.6 vs their 24.2%, and they swing ±7.8 week to week (−0.59× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
Cardinals24.2%right on their number · −0.3 vs their 24.5%, and they swing ±9.2 week to week (−0.03× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 37%
Tendencies room →Packers23.9%inside their normal wobble · +7.6 vs their 16.3%, and they swing ±8.2 week to week (+0.93× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
Cardinals6.1%leaned — stayed blocked · −5.3 vs their 11.4%, and they swing ±5.0 week to week (−1.07× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
GB's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 15.2%, 11.0 points below their season mean of 26.1% and 1.4 times their own 7.9-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Green Bay Packers
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Arizona Cardinals
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · ARI
25/36, 279 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
1.0 expected points added · +4.7% completion over expected
Passing · GB
19/29, 179 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
6.1 expected points added · -3.0% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Josh Jacobs banked 7.3 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey McBrideTE · Alpha Receiver | 29.4 | +6.2 | 87% | 96% | 38% | 28% | 10/13, 74 yd, 2 TD |
| Jacoby BrissettQB · Starter QB | 19.8 | +0.7 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 25/36, 279 yd, 2 TD · 6 car, 26 yd |
| Josh JacobsRB · Committee Back | 18.8 | +7.3 | 55% | 52% | 4% | 0% | 13 car, 55 yd, 2 TD · 1/1, 3 yd |
| Tucker KraftTE · Alpha Receiver | 16.8 | +0.4 | 89% | 88% | 36% | 19% | 5/10, 58 yd, 1 TD |
| Jordan LoveQB · Starter QB | 13.4 | −1.2 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 19/29, 179 yd, 1 TD · 4 car, 22 yd |
| Romeo DoubsWR · Alpha Receiver | 13.2 | −2.9 | 89% | 85% | 29% | 65% | 6/8, 72 yd |
| Bam KnightRB · Committee Back | 9.4 | −4.0 | — | — | — | — | No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash. |
| Zay JonesWR · Rotational Receiver | 8.7 | +4.8 | 54% | 52% | 6% | 20% | 2/2, 67 yd |
| Marvin Harrison Jr.WR · Rotational Receiver | 7.8 | −2.3 | 86% | 93% | 18% | 42% | 2/6, 58 yd |
| Matthew GoldenWR · Rotational Receiver | 7.7 | +1.7 | 73% | 82% | 14% | 7% | 4/4, 37 yd |
| Michael WilsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 7.0 | +1.1 | 82% | 80% | 12% | 13% | 3/4, 40 yd |
| Michael CarterRB | 5.6 | −1.1 | 37% | 39% | 6% | 2% | 7 car, 11 yd · 2/2, 25 yd |
| Greg DortchWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.5 | −0.5 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Emanuel WilsonRB | 2.5 | −2.3 | 34% | 33% | 4% | 0% | 6 car, 17 yd · 1/1, -2 yd |
| John FitzPatrickTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.6 | +0.2 | 29% | 27% | 4% | 1% | 1/1, 6 yd |
| Dontayvion WicksWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.5 | −2.1 | 27% | 27% | 7% | 8% | 1/2, 5 yd |
| Elijah HigginsTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.3 | −0.2 | 42% | 43% | 3% | 0% | 1/1, 3 yd |
| Simi FehokoWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| Xavier WeaverWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| D'Ernest JohnsonRB | 0.0 | −0.9 | 18% | 24% | 0% | — | 1 car, 0 yd |
| Chris BrooksRB | 0.0 | −2.2 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Savion WilliamsWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Malik HeathWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 41% | 36% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Bo MeltonWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
7 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 5 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Cardinals attack right, the Packers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(2:32) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 85-T.Kraft pushed ob at ARI 14 for 15 yards (42-D.Taylor-Demerson). ** Injury Update: ARI-10-J.Sweat has returned to the game.
Q4 2:32 · Packers · 4th & 2 at ARI 29 · gained 15 · +2.75 EP · +19.4% win probability
158 snaps placed · 16 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 174 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 158 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 169. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
10 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was ARI moving 81 yards from the ARI 19 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; ARI attacks right, GB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
174 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
174 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Packers0
Cardinals3Packers3Cardinals3Packers3Cardinals6How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
Packers3Cardinals12Packers3Cardinals13Packers6Cardinals13How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, the ball was not catchable.
Packers12Cardinals13Packers13Cardinals13How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Packers13Cardinals19Packers13Cardinals20How the play was built
A run-pass option, a man in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown, from outside the pocket.
Packers19Cardinals20Packers20Cardinals20Packers20Cardinals23How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a quarterback sneak, a man in motion.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown.
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Packers26Cardinals23Packers27Cardinals23How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, the ball was not catchable.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown.
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Packers at Cardinals, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love | 19/29 | 179 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +6.1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Jacobs | 13 | 55 | 4.2 | 2 | +2.3 |
| Jordan Love | 4 | 22 | 5.5 | 0 | +2.2 |
| Emanuel Wilson |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Romeo Doubs | 6 | 8 | 72 | 0 | 29% | +1.5 |
| Tucker Kraft | 5 | 10 | 58 | 1 | 36% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quay Walker | 5 | 4 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Evan Williams | 3 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Javon Bullard |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | 25/36 | 279 | 2 | 0 | 6 | +1.0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2025_07_GB_ARI
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Packers closed -7, won by 4 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 44.5; the game landed 50 — over by 5.5.
Conditions and crew
| 6 |
| 17 |
| 2.8 |
| 0 |
| −4.4 |
| +3.6 |
| Matthew Golden | 4 | 4 | 37 | 0 | 14% | +5.3 |
| John FitzPatrick | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 4% | +1.2 |
| Dontayvion Wicks | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 7% | −1.1 |
| Josh Jacobs | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4% | −0.3 |
| Chris Brooks | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.8 |
| Emanuel Wilson | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 4% | −0.9 |
| 3 |
| 5 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Xavier McKinney | 2 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Isaiah McDuffie | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Colby Wooden | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nate Hobbs | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kingsley Enagbare | 2 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Edgerrin Cooper | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Warren Brinson | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bam Knight | 14 | 57 | 4.1 | 0 | +0.3 |
| Jacoby Brissett | 6 | 26 | 4.3 | 0 | −1.7 |
| Michael Carter | 7 | 11 | 1.6 | 0 | −2.8 |
| D'Ernest Johnson | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | −0.4 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey McBride | 10 | 13 | 74 | 2 | 38% | +6.9 |
| Zay Jones | 2 | 2 | 67 | 0 | 6% | +5.0 |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | 2 | 6 | 58 | 0 | 18% | +2.5 |
| Michael Wilson | 3 | 4 | 40 | 0 | 12% | +2.4 |
| Michael Carter | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 | 6% | +1.6 |
| Bam Knight | 3 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 12% | −0.8 |
| Greg Dortch | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 6% | −0.8 |
| Elijah Higgins | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3% | −0.5 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Akeem Davis-Gaither | 4 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Budda Baker | 4 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dadrion Taylor-Demerson | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalen Thompson | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Max Melton | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Calais Campbell | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Will Johnson | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mack Wilson | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Darius Robinson | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Elijah Higgins | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
