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2025 Week 7 · Sun, Oct 19, 2025 · State Farm Stadium
Final
PackersGreen Bay27
BY 4final margin
CardinalsArizona23
Green Bay Packers 27 at Arizona Cardinals 23. Final.
Packers -7 no coverO 44.5 ✓
The verdict · 2025 Week 7
Green Bay Packers 27, Cardinals 23 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 2:32, 4th and 2, on Tucker Kraft — 22.5 win-probability points to the Packers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 2:32 · 4th and 2
Tucker Kraft
Packers
(2:32) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 85-T.Kraft pushed ob at ARI 14 for 15 yards (42-D.Taylor-Demerson). ** Injury Update: ARI-10-J.Sweat has returned to the game.
Dome
Packers closed -7, won by 4 — but didn't cover.
Green Bay Packers 27–23. Biggest swing: Q4 2:32, Packers +22.5% win probability on one snap.
22.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Jacoby BrissettPackersQ4 5:58(5:58) 7-J.Brissett up the middle to ARI 48 for no gain (58-I.McDuffie).
20.4pts
Jacoby BrissettPackersQ4 0:32(:32) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett sacked at GB 35 for -9 yards (1-M.Parsons).
16.9pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Packers won this one — no giveaways, against Cardinals at 2 giveaways.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Cardinals owned this one and still lost it — 7 of 14 on third down, against Packers at 3 of 10 on third down.
Cardinalsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Packers won this one — 50% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Cardinals at 41% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Packers won this one — 3 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Cardinals at 2 touchdowns on 4 trips.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 20.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 35 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Cardinals.
MarketModelmodel higher on Cardinalshigher on Packers160 of 174 plays carry both curves
(2:32) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 85-T.Kraft pushed ob at ARI 14 for 15 yards (42-D.Taylor-Demerson). ** Injury Update: ARI-10-J.Sweat has returned to the game.
Swing −22.5 for CardinalsExpected points −2.75 for CardinalsThe model had Cardinals 6 points higher than the market did.play 153
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 2:32ARI +23% win prob(2:32) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 85-T.Kraft pushed ob at ARI 14 for 15 yards (42-D.Taylor-Demerson). ** Injury Update: ARI-10-J.Sweat has returned to the game.
4th · 5:58GB +20% win prob(5:58) 7-J.Brissett up the middle to ARI 48 for no gain (58-I.McDuffie).
4th · 0:32GB +17% win prob(:32) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett sacked at GB 35 for -9 yards (1-M.Parsons).
3rd · 11:51GB +16% win prob(11:51) 7-J.Brissett sacked at ARI 42 for -4 yards (52-R.Gary). FUMBLES (52-R.Gary) [52-R.Gary], RECOVERED by GB-33-E.Williams at ARI 44.
2nd · 0:12ARI +15% win prob(:12) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 85-T.McBride for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 6:58ARI +15% win prob(6:58) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass deep left to 18-M.Harrison to GB 24 for 35 yards (21-N.Hobbs).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Josh Jacobs's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 1:54 left in the 4th put Green Bay Packers ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st7:38Chad Ryland·32-yd field goal32-yard field goalholder P.O'Donnell · snap A.Brewer+30–3
2nd9:10Lucas Havrisik·31-yd field goal31-yard field goalholder D.Whelan · snap M.Orzech+33–3
2nd5:06Chad Ryland·40-yd field goal40-yard field goalholder P.O'Donnell · snap A.Brewer+33–6
4th15:00Tucker Kraft·7-yd TD catch7-yard touchdown catchfrom Jordan Lovefrom Jordan Love+720–20
4th9:02Chad Ryland·39-yd field goal39-yard field goalholder P.O'Donnell · snap A.Brewer+320–23
4th1:54Josh Jacobs·1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+727–23
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Packerscategory by categoryCardinals
Packers5–4Cardinals
263Total yards330
5.1Yards per play4.7
50%Success rate41%
30%Third-down rate50%
3Red-zone touchdowns2
4Explosive plays5
15First downs18
1Sacks taken6
0Turnovers2
The read
Packers ahead 5–4 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.12Packers: +0.12 expected points added per play
−0.05Cardinals: −0.05 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.25Packers: +0.25 expected points added per play
+0.05Cardinals: +0.05 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.11Packers: −0.11 expected points added per play
−0.24Cardinals: −0.24 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Packers ran 52 snaps at a 63% dropback rate against Cardinals’s 70 at 66%. Red-zone trips: Packers 4, Cardinals 4.
NoteCardinals outgained Packers 330-263 but lost the turnover battle 2-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
ARI's sack or hit rate turned over: 18.2% in week 6 against 6.1% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
33 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -28 pts to 20 pts
inside their normal wobble · +7.6 vs their 16.3%, and they swing ±8.2 week to week (+0.93× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
Cardinals6.1%
leaned — stayed blocked · −5.3 vs their 11.4%, and they swing ±5.0 week to week (−1.07× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
NoteGB's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 15.2%, 11.0 points below their season mean of 26.1% and 1.4 times their own 7.9-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Green Bay Packers
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 3 never used
65Aaron BanksG · Every snap100%56 snaps
74Elgton JenkinsC · Every snap100%56 snaps
77Jordan MorganG · Every snap100%56 snaps
50Zach TomT · Every snap100%56 snaps
63Rasheed WalkerT · Every snap100%56 snaps
10Jordan LoveQB · Every snap100%56 snaps
87Romeo DoubsWR · Full-time89%50 snaps
85Tucker KraftTE · Full-time89%50 snaps
0Matthew GoldenWR · Heavy rotation73%41 snaps
8Josh JacobsRB · Heavy rotation55%31 snaps
88Luke MusgraveTE · Rotational43%24 snaps
18Malik HeathWR · Rotational41%23 snaps
23Emanuel WilsonRB · Rotational34%19 snaps
86John FitzPatrickTE · Rotational29%16 snaps
13Dontayvion WicksWR · Rotational27%15 snaps
30Chris BrooksRB · Situational12%7 snaps
83Savion WilliamsWR · Situational7%4 snaps
Inactive · 7
Lukas Van NessDEDevonte WyattDTDonovan JenningsGBrandon McManusKPierre StrongRBAnthony BeltonTBen SimsTE
6 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Cardinals attack right, the Packers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Packers←Cardinals→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Love pass+19% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(2:32) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 85-T.Kraft pushed ob at ARI 14 for 15 yards (42-D.Taylor-Demerson). ** Injury Update: ARI-10-J.Sweat has returned to the game.
Q4 2:32 · Packers · 4th & 2 at ARI 29 · gained 15 · +2.75 EP · +19.4% win probability
158 snaps placed · 16 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 174 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 158 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 169. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was ARI moving 81 yards from the ARI 19 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; ARI attacks right, GB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
174 of 174 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
174
EPA per play
+0.07
Success rate
48%
Yards
592
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Cardinals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR35+0.0774%
Packers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR26+0.1162%
Packers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR22+0.2659%
Cardinals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR17-0.2271%
Cardinals1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR7-0.1214%
Cardinals1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5-0.050%
Cardinals1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR5-0.2660%
Packers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Cardinals1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Packers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
174 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
174 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter34 plays
Packers0Cardinals3
Field goal17 plays, from the Cardinals 27 to the Packers 7
Turnover on downs13 plays, from the Packers 26 to the Cardinals 37
The period ended3 plays, from the Cardinals 39 to the Cardinals 47
2nd quarter49 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Packers 42 to the Packers 40
Packers3Cardinals3
Field goal10 plays, from the Packers 20 to the Cardinals 13
Packers3Cardinals6
Field goal10 plays, from the Cardinals 29 to the Packers 22
Punt5 plays, from the Packers 32 to the Packers 38
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.5 seconds
Packers3Cardinals12
Packers3Cardinals13
Touchdown15 plays, from the Cardinals 29 to the Packers 15
Packers6Cardinals13
Field goal4 plays, from the Packers 35 to the Cardinals 43
3rd quarter38 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Packers 30 to the Packers 37
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, the ball was not catchable.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Cardinals 20 to the Cardinals 46
Packers12Cardinals13
Packers13Cardinals13
Touchdown6 plays, from the Cardinals 44 to the Cardinals 7
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.9 seconds
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Packers13Cardinals19
Packers13Cardinals20
Touchdown11 plays, from the Cardinals 35 to the Packers 12
The period ended12 plays, from the Packers 33 to the Cardinals 11
4th quarter53 plays
How the play was built
A run-pass option, a man in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown, from outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.4 seconds
Packers19Cardinals20
Packers20Cardinals20
Touchdown2 plays
Packers20Cardinals23
Field goal12 plays, from the Packers 45 to the Packers 8
Punt5 plays, from the Packers 16 to the Packers 20
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a quarterback sneak, a man in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
The period ended6 plays, from the Cardinals 28 to the Cardinals 48
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.1 seconds
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxSix defenders
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
Packers26Cardinals23
Packers27Cardinals23
Touchdown13 plays, from the Cardinals 48 to the Cardinals 1
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, the ball was not catchable.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runDigIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.1 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCurlIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.1 seconds
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runGoIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.2 seconds
Turnover on downs13 plays, from the Cardinals 35 to the Packers 26
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
