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2025 Week 7 · Mon, Oct 20, 2025 · Lumen Field

Houston Texans

19

Seattle SeahawksWinner

27

SEA -3 ✓O 41.5 ✓

Seattle Seahawks 27–19. Biggest swing: Q3 7:33, HOU +15% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3SEA ↑HOU ↓
Q3 · 7:33HOU 12 — SEA 17SEA ball · 3rd & 7SEA 88%

(7:33) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold sacked at SEA -5 for -12 yards (51-W.Anderson). FUMBLES (51-W.Anderson) [51-W.Anderson], RECOVERED by HOU-51-W.Anderson at SEA -5. TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q3 · 7:33HOU +15% win prob(7:33) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold sacked at SEA -5 for -12 yards (51-W.Anderson). FUMBLES (51-W.Anderson) [51-W.Anderson], RECOVERED by HOU-51-W.Anderson at SEA -5. TOUCHDOWN.
  2. Q1 · 11:10HOU +10% win prob(11:10) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud sacked at HOU 1 for -18 yards (7-U.Nwosu).
  3. Q3 · 14:14HOU +7% win prob(14:14) 7-C.Stroud pass deep middle intended for 12-N.Collins INTERCEPTED by 13-E.Jones [29-J.Jobe] at HOU 46. 13-E.Jones pushed ob at HOU 18 for 28 yards (21-N.Chubb). PENALTY on SEA-7-U.Nwosu, Illegal Blindside Block, 15 yards, enforced at HOU 23.
  4. Q2 · 7:10HOU +6% win prob(7:10) 10-C.Kupp pass short right intended for 11-J.Smith-Njigba INTERCEPTED by 2-C.Bullock at HOU 12. 2-C.Bullock pushed ob at HOU 23 for 11 yards (11-J.Smith-Njigba).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 7:37SEA Touchdown

    (7:37) 74-J.Jones reported in as eligible. 26-Z.Charbonnet right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: HOU 0 — SEA 7
  2. Q1 · 0:02SEA Touchdown

    (:02) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 11-J.Smith-Njigba for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN [72-T.Togiai]. PENALTY on SEA-11-J.Smith-Njigba, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. (kick good)

    Score after this play: HOU 0 — SEA 14
  3. Q2 · 2:22HOU Field goal

    (2:22) 15-K.Fairbairn 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

    Score after this play: HOU 3 — SEA 14
  4. Q2 · 0:02HOU Field goal

    (:02) 15-K.Fairbairn 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

    Score after this play: HOU 6 — SEA 14
  5. Q3 · 10:37SEA Field goal

    (10:37) 5-J.Myers 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

    Score after this play: HOU 6 — SEA 17
  6. Q3 · 7:33HOU Touchdown

    (7:33) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold sacked at SEA -5 for -12 yards (51-W.Anderson). FUMBLES (51-W.Anderson) [51-W.Anderson], RECOVERED by HOU-51-W.Anderson at SEA -5. TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: HOU 12 — SEA 17
  7. Q3 · 5:19SEA Field goal

    (5:19) 5-J.Myers 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

    Score after this play: HOU 12 — SEA 20
  8. Q3 · 0:57SEA Touchdown

    (:57) 26-Z.Charbonnet left tackle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: HOU 12 — SEA 27
  9. Q4 · 2:15HOU Touchdown

    (2:15) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 27-W.Marks for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: HOU 19 — SEA 27

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricTexansSeahawks
Offensive plays7065
Total yards254318 (edge)
Yards per play3.64.9 (edge)
Expected points added / play-0.31-0.25 (edge)
Success rate36% (edge)35%
Dropback rate79%54%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.20 (edge)-0.37
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.73-0.11 (edge)
Third downs2/152/14 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)7 (edge)6
First downs gained on snaps1515
Sacks taken32 (edge)
Turnovers2 (edge)4

Seahawks won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.25 expected points added per play vs -0.31.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · HOU

C.J. StroudQB

23/49, 229 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-13.5 expected points added · -14.2% completion over expected

Passing · SEA

Sam DarnoldQB

17/31, 213 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-5.6 expected points added · -2.3% completion over expected

Rushing · SEA

Kenneth Walker IIIRB

17 att, 66 yds, 0 TD

-4.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · SEA

Zach CharbonnetRB

12 att, 49 yds, 2 TD

-1.0 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · SEA

Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR

8/14 for 123 yds, 1 TD

48% of team targets · 4.1 expected points added

Receiving · HOU

Dalton SchultzTE

9/10 for 98 yds, 0 TD

22% of team targets · 6.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1SEASEA 29591:44Punt
2HOUHOU 46-33:10Punt
3SEAHOU 446442:38Touchdown +7
4HOUHOU 37582:20Punt
5SEASEA 2011645:08Touchdown +7
6HOUHOU 307111:57Punt
7SEASEA 324142:29Punt
8HOUHOU 24481:24Fumble
9SEASEA 434212:08Interception
10HOUHOU 2310504:44Field goal +3
11SEASEA 308362:05Missed field goal
12HOUHOU 433290:13Field goal +3
13HOUHOU 25340:58Interception
14SEAHOU 388313:28Field goal +3
15HOUHOU 327211:43Punt
16SEASEA 43-41:27Defensive touchdown
17SEASEA 386332:09Field goal +3
18HOUHOU 32572:04Turnover on downs
19SEAHOU 396242:17Touchdown +7
20HOUHOU 205-80:54Punt
21SEASEA 474141:47Punt
22HOUHOU 21400:35Punt
23SEASEA 364281:51Fumble
24HOUHOU 466241:52Turnover on downs
25SEASEA 45230:32Interception
26HOUHOU 4811513:19Turnover on downs
27SEASEA 64-50:30Punt
28HOU509522:30Touchdown +7
29SEASEA 28662:04End of game

8 of 29 drives ended in points. Longest march: Seahawks gained 64 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Houston Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
C.J. Stroud23/49229113-13.5

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
C.J. Stroud22512.502.8
Nick Chubb5163.20-1.2
Woody Marks10151.50-9.8

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Dalton Schultz91098022%6.2
Jaylin Noel4777015%3.8
Nico Collins41027022%-6.5
Woody Marks3520111%1.6
Xavier Hutchinson141309%-2.1
Dare Ogunbowale01002%-1.8
Jayden Higgins03007%-4.0
Braxton Berrios13-107%-1.7
Nick Chubb13-507%-2.2

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Jalen Pitre450.000
Kamari Lassiter430.001
M.J. Stewart420.000
E.J. Speed510.000
Azeez Al-Shaair240.001
Will Anderson Jr.321.000
Calen Bullock310.011
Danielle Hunter220.000
Henry To'oTo'o210.000
Denico Autry201.000

Seattle Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Sam Darnold17/31213112-5.6
Cooper Kupp0/10010-5.4

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Kenneth Walker III17663.90-4.5
Zach Charbonnet12494.12-1.0
AJ Barner122.002.2
Sam Darnold310.302.1

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Jaxon Smith-Njigba814123148%4.1
Elijah Arroyo4542017%-2.0
Cooper Kupp113203%2.1
AJ Barner137010%-5.2
Zach Charbonnet22607%-0.6
Jake Bobo11303%-0.5
Tory Horton030010%-3.1

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Ernest Jones470.011
Ty Okada631.001
Josh Jobe410.002
Byron Murphy II230.000
Coby Bryant500.000
Brady Russell300.000
Drake Thomas300.003
Jaxon Smith-Njigba200.000
Riq Woolen200.002
DeMarcus Lawrence201.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
SEA -3
Closing total
41.5
HOU moneyline
+140
SEA moneyline
-166

Seahawks closed -3 and covered, winning by 8.

Total closed 41.5; the game landed 46 — over by 4.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Lumen Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
56°F, wind 5 mph
Referee
Carl Cheffers
Rest
HOU 15 days · SEA 8 days
Coaches
DeMeco Ryans vs Mike Macdonald