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2025 Week 7 · Sun, Oct 19, 2025 · SoFi Stadium

Indianapolis ColtsWinner

38

Los Angeles Chargers

24

LAC -2.5 upsetO 48.5 ✓Dome

Indianapolis Colts 38–24. Biggest swing: Q2 15:00, LAC +12% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3LAC ↑IND ↓
Q2 · 15:00IND 12 — LAC 3IND ball · 4th & 2IND 60%

(15:00) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short right to 11-M.Pittman for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q2 · 15:00LAC +12% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short right to 11-M.Pittman for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  2. Q2 · 11:51LAC +12% win prob(11:51) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass deep left to 14-A.Pierce to LAC 25 for 48 yards (23-T.Jefferson).
  3. Q1 · 9:28LAC +8% win prob(9:28) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete deep left to 1-Q.Johnston. PENALTY on IND-29-M.Blackmon, Defensive Pass Interference, 25 yards, enforced at LAC 46 - No Play.
  4. Q2 · 6:48IND +8% win prob(6:48) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right intended for 86-O.Gadsden INTERCEPTED by 90-G.Stewart at IND 34. 90-G.Stewart to IND 37 for 3 yards (10-J.Herbert; 74-A.Deculus).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 12:42IND Touchdown

    (12:42) 28-J.Taylor right tackle for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: IND 6 — LAC 0
  2. Q1 · 7:39LAC Field goal

    (7:39) 11-C.Dicker 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-R.Lovato, Holder-16-J.Scott.

    Score after this play: IND 6 — LAC 3
  3. Q2 · 15:00IND Touchdown

    (15:00) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short right to 11-M.Pittman for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: IND 13 — LAC 3
  4. Q2 · 9:00IND Touchdown

    (9:00) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short middle to 84-T.Warren for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: IND 20 — LAC 3
  5. Q2 · 0:03IND Field goal

    (:03) 12-M.Badgley 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

    Score after this play: IND 23 — LAC 3
  6. Q3 · 13:05LAC Touchdown

    (13:05) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 1-Q.Johnston for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: IND 23 — LAC 10
  7. Q3 · 12:08IND Touchdown

    (12:08) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor right end for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)

    Score after this play: IND 31 — LAC 10
  8. Q3 · 6:18LAC Touchdown

    (6:18) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 13-K.Allen for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: IND 31 — LAC 17
  9. Q3 · 3:37IND Touchdown

    (3:37) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor up the middle for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: IND 38 — LAC 17
  10. Q4 · 13:46LAC Touchdown

    (13:46) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 86-O.Gadsden for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: IND 38 — LAC 24

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricColtsChargers
Offensive plays5574
Total yards406445 (edge)
Yards per play7.4 (edge)6.0
Expected points added / play0.43 (edge)0.09
Success rate53% (edge)47%
Dropback rate65%82%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.41 (edge)0.13
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.48 (edge)-0.11
Third downs5/108/16
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)77
First downs gained on snaps24 (edge)23
Sacks taken1 (edge)3
Turnovers0 (edge)2

Chargers outgained Colts 445–406 but lost the turnover battle 2–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · LAC

Justin HerbertQB

37/55, 420 yds, 3 TD, 2 INT

5.8 expected points added · +2.8% completion over expected

Passing · IND

Daniel JonesQB

23/34, 288 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

14.9 expected points added · +5.2% completion over expected

Rushing · IND

Jonathan TaylorRB

16 att, 94 yds, 3 TD

8.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · LAC

Justin HerbertQB

6 att, 31 yds, 0 TD

3.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · LAC

Oronde Gadsden IITE

7/9 for 164 yds, 1 TD

17% of team targets · 7.0 expected points added

Receiving · LAC

Keenan AllenWR

11/14 for 119 yds, 1 TD

26% of team targets · 6.6 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1INDIND 257752:24Touchdown +6
2LACLAC 3110245:01Field goal +3
3INDIND 3019707:41Touchdown +7
4LACLAC 226201:24Punt
5INDIND 209704:34Touchdown +7
6LACLAC 356372:18Interception
7INDIND 374-30:56Punt
8LACLAC 209603:48Interception
9INDIND 209621:54Field goal +3
10LACLAC 308701:59Touchdown +7
11INDLAC 144160:58Touchdown +8
12LACLAC 2412815:50Touchdown +7
13INDIND 277732:40Touchdown +7
14LACLAC 2413764:53Touchdown +7
15INDIND 37580:59Punt
16LACLAC 1121779:14Turnover on downs
17INDIND 227353:27End of game

10 of 17 drives ended in points. Longest march: Chargers gained 81 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Indianapolis Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Daniel Jones23/3428820114.9

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Jonathan Taylor16945.938.1
Ameer Abdullah2199.501.9
Daniel Jones571.40-3.0

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Alec Pierce51098031%4.1
Tyler Warren4569116%6.1
Michael Pittman7958128%5.7
Jonathan Taylor333809%2.5
Ameer Abdullah11803%-0.8
Adonai Mitchell11803%0.3
Mo Alie-Cox12606%-0.5
Anthony Gould11303%-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Kenny Moore II440.001
Camryn Bynum350.000
Nick Cross600.011
Mekhi Blackmon510.001
Johnathan Edwards330.000
DeForest Buckner412.000
Zaire Franklin230.001
Neville Gallimore130.001
Germaine Pratt220.000
Laiatu Latu121.000

Los Angeles Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Justin Herbert37/554203235.8

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Justin Herbert6315.203.7
Kimani Vidal9202.20-2.9
Hassan Haskins133.00-0.2

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Oronde Gadsden II79164117%7.0
Keenan Allen1114119126%6.6
Ladd McConkey91567028%1.6
Quentin Johnston2630111%-4.7
Tre Harris222304%4.8
Kimani Vidal451509%-1.0
Hassan Haskins22204%-1.7
Will Dissly01002%-0.9

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Derwin James340.000
Tony Jefferson510.000
R.J. Mickens410.000
Jamaree Caldwell220.000
Denzel Perryman210.000
Odafe Oweh120.000
Teair Tart120.000
Cam Hart300.001
Tarheeb Still120.000
Benjamin St-Juste210.002

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
LAC -2.5
Closing total
48.5
IND moneyline
+114
LAC moneyline
-135

Chargers closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 48.5; the game landed 62 — over by 13.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
SoFi Stadium
Roof / surface
dome · matrixturf
Kickoff weather
Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee
Alan Eck
Rest
IND 7 days · LAC 7 days
Coaches
Shane Steichen vs Jim Harbaugh