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DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:48 AM ET · 16 to play
Indianapolis Colts 38 at Los Angeles Chargers 24. Final.
Chargers -2.5 upset
The verdict · 2025 Week 7
Indianapolis Colts 38, Chargers 24 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 15:00, 4th and 2, on Michael Pittman — 12.1 win-probability points to the Colts on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 15:00 · 4th and 2
Michael Pittman
Colts
(15:00) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short right to 11-M.Pittman for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
O 48.5 ✓
Dome
Chargers closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Indianapolis Colts 38–24. Biggest swing: Q2 15:00, Colts +12.1% win probability on one snap.
12.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Justin HerbertChargersQ1 9:28(9:28) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete deep left to 1-Q.Johnston. PENALTY on IND-29-M.Blackmon, Defensive Pass Interference, 25 yards, enforced at LAC 46 - No Play.
8.2pts
Alec PierceColtsQ2 11:51(11:51) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass deep left to 14-A.Pierce to LAC 25 for 48 yards (23-T.Jefferson).
11.7pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Colts won this one — +0.48 expected points per carry, against Chargers at -0.11 expected points per carry.
Coltsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Colts won this one — no giveaways, against Chargers at 2 giveaways.
Coltsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Colts won this one — +0.43 expected points per snap, against Chargers at +0.09 expected points per snap.
Coltsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Colts won this one — +0.41 expected points per dropback, against Chargers at +0.13 expected points per dropback.
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 1.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 6 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Colts.
MarketModelmodel higher on Chargershigher on Colts165 of 177 plays carry both curves
(15:00) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short right to 11-M.Pittman for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −12.1 for ChargersExpected points −3.88 for ChargersThe model had Colts 3 points higher than the market did.play 40
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 15:00LAC +12% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short right to 11-M.Pittman for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 11:51LAC +12% win prob(11:51) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass deep left to 14-A.Pierce to LAC 25 for 48 yards (23-T.Jefferson).
1st · 9:28LAC +8% win prob(9:28) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete deep left to 1-Q.Johnston. PENALTY on IND-29-M.Blackmon, Defensive Pass Interference, 25 yards, enforced at LAC 46 - No Play.
2nd · 6:48IND +8% win prob(6:48) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right intended for 86-O.Gadsden INTERCEPTED by 90-G.Stewart at IND 34. 90-G.Stewart to IND 37 for 3 yards (10-J.Herbert; 74-A.Deculus).
2nd · 2:00IND +7% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right intended for 1-Q.Johnston INTERCEPTED by 20-N.Cross at IND -5. Touchback.
1st · 5:26LAC +6% win prob(5:26) 28-J.Taylor right guard to IND 39 for no gain (23-T.Jefferson; 99-J.Caldwell). The Replay Official reviewed the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 28-J.Taylor right guard to IND 40 for 1 yard (23-T.Jefferson; 99-J.Caldwell).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Jonathan Taylor's 23-yard rushing touchdown with 12:42 left in the 1st put Indianapolis Colts ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 9 scores that followed.
Lead
1st12:42Jonathan Taylor·23-yd TD run23-yard rushing touchdownkick no good, wide leftLead never changed again+66–0
1st7:39Cameron Dicker·43-yd field goal43-yard field goalholder J.Scott · snap R.Lovato+36–3
2nd15:00Michael Pittman·4-yd TD catch4-yard touchdown catchfrom Daniel Jonesfrom Daniel Jones+713–3
2nd9:00Tyler Warren·5-yd TD catch5-yard touchdown catchfrom Daniel Jonesfrom Daniel Jones+720–3
2nd0:03Mike Badgley·36-yd field goal36-yard field goalholder R.Sanchez · snap L.Rhodes+323–3
Colts ahead 6–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.48 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.43Colts: +0.43 expected points added per play
+0.09Chargers: +0.09 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.41Colts: +0.41 expected points added per play
+0.13Chargers: +0.13 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.48Colts: +0.48 expected points added per play
−0.11Chargers: −0.11 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Colts ran 55 snaps at a 65% dropback rate against Chargers’s 74 at 82%. Red-zone trips: Colts 6, Chargers 4.
NoteChargers outgained Colts 445-406 but lost the turnover battle 2-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
IND's blitz rate sent, 6.6%, was the lowest of the 30 team-games charted in week 7 — 2.0 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of 27.7% in week 6.
2.5 times their own weekly swing below their number.
61 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.4 points.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
LAC's early-down pass rate, 81.5%, was the highest of the 30 team-games charted in week 7 — 1.9 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of 77.3% in week 4.
54 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.3 points.
high through week 7Against their seasonOver Expected
IND's pass rate over expected, +10.9 pts, is past their previous high of +1.9 pts in week 3 — the highest of their 7 charted games through week 7.
54 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 21 pts
leaned — got home · +11.9 vs their 12.7%, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (+1.59× that swing) · 61 dropbacks
Chargers13.9%
right on their number · −1.3 vs their 15.2%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (−0.17× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
NoteIND's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 6.6%, 25.5 points below their season mean of 32.0% and 2.5 times their own 10.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Indianapolis Colts
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
79Bernhard RaimannT · Every snap100%60 snaps
60Tanor BortoliniC · Every snap100%60 snaps
17Daniel JonesQB · Every snap100%60 snaps
71Matt GoncalvesG · Full-time95%57 snaps
56Quenton NelsonG · Full-time95%57 snaps
72Braden SmithT · Full-time95%57 snaps
84Tyler WarrenTE · Full-time92%55 snaps
14Alec PierceWR · Full-time87%52 snaps
11Michael PittmanWR · Full-time87%52 snaps
28Jonathan TaylorRB · Full-time87%52 snaps
6Anthony GouldWR · Heavy rotation65%39 snaps
85Andrew OgletreeTE · Rotational30%18 snaps
81Mo Alie-CoxTE · Rotational30%18 snaps
26Ameer AbdullahRB · Situational8%5 snaps
10Adonai MitchellWR · Situational8%5 snaps
75Jalen TravisT · Situational7%4 snaps
63Danny PinterC · Situational5%3 snaps
68Dalton TuckerG · Situational5%3 snaps
21DJ GiddensRB · Situational5%3 snaps
Inactive · 7
Eric JohnsonDTReuben LoweryFSTyler GoodsonRBLuke TenutaTWill MalloryTEAshton DulinWRJosh DownsWR
6 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Chargers attack right, the Colts attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Colts←Chargers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Jones pass+10% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(11:51) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass deep left to 14-A.Pierce to LAC 25 for 48 yards (23-T.Jefferson).
Q2 11:51 · Colts · 3rd & 17 at IND 27 · gained 48 · +4.88 EP · +10.3% win probability
163 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 177 plays across 17 drives, personnel groupings on 163 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 172. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 17 drives ended in points. The longest march was IND moving 80 yards from the IND 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LAC attacks right, IND attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
177 of 177 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
177
EPA per play
+0.20
Success rate
49%
Yards
848
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Chargers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR60+0.1682%
Colts1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR37+0.5568%
Colts1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9+0.4278%
Colts1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR8+0.0838%
Chargers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Chargers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Chargers1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR3——
Chargers2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
Colts1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Chargers0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Chargers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
177 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
177 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
Colts6Chargers0
Touchdown7 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Chargers 23
Colts6Chargers3
Field goal12 plays, from the Chargers 31 to the Colts 20
The period ended19 plays, from the Colts 30 to the Chargers 12
2nd quarter50 plays
Colts12Chargers3
Colts13Chargers3
Touchdown2 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Chargers 22 to the Chargers 47
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.7 seconds
Colts19Chargers3
Colts20Chargers3
Touchdown10 plays, from the Colts 20 to the Chargers 5
Intercepted6 plays, from the Chargers 35 to the Colts 28
Punt4 plays
Intercepted9 plays, from the Chargers 20 to the Colts 8
Colts23Chargers3
Field goal11 plays, from the Colts 20 to the Chargers 18
3rd quarter41 plays
Colts23Chargers9
Colts23Chargers10
Touchdown8 plays, from the Chargers 30 to the Colts 7
Colts29Chargers10
Colts31Chargers10
Touchdown4 plays, from the Chargers 14 to the Chargers 8
Colts31Chargers16
Colts31Chargers17
Touchdown13 plays, from the Chargers 24 to the Colts 4
Colts37Chargers17
Colts38Chargers17
Touchdown7 plays, from the Colts 27 to the Chargers 19
The period ended9 plays, from the Chargers 24 to the Colts 15
4th quarter47 plays
Colts38Chargers23
Colts38Chargers24
Touchdown5 plays, from the Colts 13 to the Colts 6
The period ended6 plays, from the Colts 37 to the Colts 45
Turnover on downs25 plays, from the Chargers 11 to the Colts 28
The period ended11 plays, from the Colts 22 to the Chargers 43
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
