For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 4.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 17 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jaguars.
MarketModelmodel higher on Jaguarshigher on Rams178 of 188 plays carry both curves
(8:01) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 23-K.Williams ran ob at JAX 7 for 9 yards (30-M.Brown).
Swing −5.8 for JaguarsExpected points −2.77 for JaguarsThe model had Jaguars 11 points higher than the market did.play 17
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 8:01JAX +6% win prob(8:01) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 23-K.Williams ran ob at JAX 7 for 9 yards (30-M.Brown).
1st · 13:46LA +4% win prob(13:46) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short middle to 11-P.Washington (31-D.Williams, 55-B.Fiske).
1st · 14:53LA +4% win prob(14:53) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence sacked at JAX 28 for -2 yards (8-J.Verse).
1st · 6:43JAX +4% win prob(6:43) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 15-K.Mumpfield for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 10:03JAX +3% win prob(10:03) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 89-T.Higbee to JAX 23 for 9 yards (29-E.Murray).
1st · 5:00JAX +3% win prob(5:00) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete deep right to 5-T.Atwell. PENALTY on JAX-42-A.Wingard, Defensive Pass Interference, 26 yards, enforced at LA 21 - No Play.
1st · 13:40
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Konata Mumpfield's 5-yard touchdown catch with 6:43 left in the 1st put Los Angeles Rams ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Lead
1st6:43Konata Mumpfield·5-yd TD catch5-yard touchdown catchfrom Matthew Staffordfrom Matthew StaffordLead never changed again+77–0
1st1:55Davante Adams·2-yd TD catch2-yard touchdown catchfrom Matthew Staffordfrom Matthew Stafford+714–0
2nd4:40Davante Adams·1-yd TD catch1-yard touchdown catchfrom Matthew Staffordfrom Matthew Stafford+721–0
4th11:19Terrance Ferguson·31-yd TD catch31-yard touchdown catchfrom Matthew Staffordfrom Matthew Stafford+728–0
4th5:03Davante Adams·1-yd TD catch1-yard touchdown catchfrom Matthew Staffordfrom Matthew Stafford+735–7
6 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Ramscategory by categoryJaguars
Rams4–3Jaguars
275Total yards358
4.7Yards per play4.8
45%Success rate41%
22%Third-down rate20%
4Red-zone touchdowns0
3Explosive plays8
18First downs18
0Sacks taken7
0Turnovers0
The read
Rams ahead 4–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.12Rams: +0.12 expected points added per play
−0.16Jaguars: −0.16 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.25Rams: +0.25 expected points added per play
−0.27Jaguars: −0.27 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.06Rams: −0.06 expected points added per play
+0.22Jaguars: +0.22 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Rams ran 58 snaps at a 59% dropback rate against Jaguars’s 74 at 77%. Red-zone trips: Rams 5, Jaguars 3.
NoteRams won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.12 expected points added per play vs -0.16.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
JAX's blitz rate sent, 58.8%, was the highest of the 30 team-games charted in week 7 — 1.1 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of 39.1% in week 5.
2.6 times their own weekly swing above their number.
A 3.8-swing turn from week 6.
34 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.9 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -13 pts to 18 pts
right on their number · +3.2 vs their 17.9%, and they swing ±8.8 week to week (+0.36× that swing) · 57 dropbacks
Jaguars11.8%
right on their number · −1.4 vs their 13.2%, and they swing ±4.2 week to week (−0.34× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
NoteJAX's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 58.8%, 28.8 points above their season mean of 30.1% and 2.6 times their own 10.9-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Los Angeles Rams
48 dressed · 6 inactive
73Steve AvilaG · Every snap100%70 snaps
65Coleman SheltonC · Every snap100%70 snaps
71Warren McClendon Jr.T · Full-time96%67 snaps
77Alaric JacksonT · Full-time96%67 snaps
69Kevin DotsonG · Full-time96%67 snaps
9Matthew StaffordQB · Full-time96%67 snaps
88Jordan WhittingtonWR · Heavy rotation60%42 snaps
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Jaguars attack right, the Rams attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Rams←Jaguars→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
M.Stafford pass+6% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(8:01) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 23-K.Williams ran ob at JAX 7 for 9 yards (30-M.Brown).
Q1 8:01 · Rams · 4th & 3 at JAX 16 · gained 9 · +2.77 EP · +6.2% win probability
176 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 188 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 176 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 183. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was JAX moving 80 yards from the JAX 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; JAX attacks right, LA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
188 of 188 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
188
EPA per play
+0.06
Success rate
47%
Yards
629
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Jaguars1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR59-0.2380%
Rams1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR34+0.0671%
Rams1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR24+0.2138%
Jaguars1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Jaguars1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR3——
Jaguars1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR3——
Jaguars2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Jaguars1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
snapsepapass rate
188 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
188 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Jaguars 30 to the Jaguars 33
Rams6Jaguars0
Rams7Jaguars0
Touchdown15 plays, from the Rams 40 to the Jaguars 4
Punt6 plays
Rams13Jaguars0
Rams14Jaguars0
Touchdown8 plays, from the Rams 21 to the Jaguars 2
The period ended5 plays, from the Jaguars 35 to the Jaguars 44
2nd quarter44 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Jaguars 45 to the Rams 43
Punt4 plays
No good7 plays, from the Jaguars 30 to the Rams 32
Rams20Jaguars0
Rams21Jaguars0
Touchdown7 plays, from the Rams 40 to the Jaguars 1
The period ended13 plays, from the Jaguars 35 to the Rams 11
The period ended5 plays, from the Rams 7 to the Rams 21
3rd quarter52 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Rams 36 to the Rams 42
Turnover on downs12 plays, from the Jaguars 17 to the Rams 30
Punt6 plays, from the Rams 30 to the Rams 48
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Jaguars 9 to the Rams 27
Punt5 plays, from the Rams 27 to the Rams 31
Punt5 plays, from the Jaguars 43 to the Rams 35
Punt4 plays, from the Rams 16 to the Rams 22
Punt5 plays
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter52 plays
Rams27Jaguars0
Rams28Jaguars0
Touchdown10 plays, from the Rams 40 to the Jaguars 31
Rams28Jaguars6
Rams28Jaguars7
Touchdown7 plays, from the Jaguars 20 to the Rams 34
Rams34Jaguars7
Rams35Jaguars7
Touchdown16 plays, from the Jaguars 45 to the Jaguars 1
The period ended15 plays, from the Jaguars 35 to the Rams 7
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
