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2025 Week 7 · Sun, Oct 19, 2025 · TIAA Bank Stadium

Los Angeles RamsWinner

35

Jacksonville Jaguars

7

LA -3 ✓U 44.5 ✓

Los Angeles Rams 35–7 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 8:01, JAX +6% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3JAX ↑LA ↓
Q1 · 8:01LA 0 — JAX 0LA ball · 4th & 3LA 68%

(8:01) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 23-K.Williams ran ob at JAX 7 for 9 yards (30-M.Brown).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q1 · 8:01JAX +6% win prob(8:01) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 23-K.Williams ran ob at JAX 7 for 9 yards (30-M.Brown).
  2. Q1 · 13:46LA +4% win prob(13:46) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short middle to 11-P.Washington (31-D.Williams, 55-B.Fiske).
  3. Q1 · 14:53LA +4% win prob(14:53) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence sacked at JAX 28 for -2 yards (8-J.Verse).
  4. Q1 · 6:43JAX +4% win prob(6:43) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 15-K.Mumpfield for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 6:43LA Touchdown

    (6:43) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 15-K.Mumpfield for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LA 7 — JAX 0
  2. Q1 · 1:55LA Touchdown

    (1:55) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 17-D.Adams for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LA 14 — JAX 0
  3. Q2 · 4:40LA Touchdown

    (4:40) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 17-D.Adams for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on JAX-6-G.Newsome, Defensive Pass Interference, declined. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LA 21 — JAX 0
  4. Q4 · 11:19LA Touchdown

    (11:19) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 18-T.Ferguson for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LA 28 — JAX 0
  5. Q4 · 9:13JAX Touchdown

    (9:13) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep right to 12-T.Hunter for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on LA-37-Q.Lake, Illegal Contact, declined. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LA 28 — JAX 7
  6. Q4 · 5:03LA Touchdown

    (5:03) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 17-D.Adams for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LA 35 — JAX 7

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricRamsJaguars
Offensive plays5874
Total yards275358 (edge)
Yards per play4.74.8 (edge)
Expected points added / play0.12 (edge)-0.16
Success rate45% (edge)41%
Dropback rate59%77%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.25 (edge)-0.27
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.060.22 (edge)
Third downs2/9 (edge)3/15
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)38 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps1818
Sacks taken0 (edge)7
Turnovers00

Rams won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.12 expected points added per play vs -0.16.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · JAX

Trevor LawrenceQB

23/48, 296 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

-13.9 expected points added · -12.5% completion over expected

Passing · LA

Matthew StaffordQB

21/33, 182 yds, 5 TD, 0 INT

8.8 expected points added · +4.2% completion over expected

Rushing · LA

Kyren WilliamsRB

12 att, 54 yds, 0 TD

0.6 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · JAX

Travis EtienneRB

8 att, 44 yds, 0 TD

3.0 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · JAX

Travis HunterWR

8/14 for 101 yds, 1 TD

30% of team targets · 2.3 expected points added

Receiving · JAX

Parker WashingtonWR

4/10 for 52 yds, 0 TD

21% of team targets · -2.3 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1JAXJAX 30531:27Punt
2LALA 4014576:55Touchdown +7
3JAXJAX 33571:38Punt
4LALA 217533:09Touchdown +7
5JAXJAX 3512205:40Punt
6LALA 9401:12Defensive touchdown
7JAXJAX 307383:01Missed field goal
8LALA 406432:21Touchdown +7
9JAXJAX 3511582:52Turnover on downs
10LALA 73141:45End of half
11LALA 36561:10Punt
12JAXJAX 1710433:13Turnover on downs
13LALA 305132:27Punt
14JAXJAX 97642:36Turnover on downs
15LALA 27440:52Punt
16JAXJAX 435-62:07Punt
17LALA 16461:42Punt
18JAXJAX 21400:26Punt
19LALA 389534:16Touchdown +7
20JAXJAX 207802:05Touchdown +7
21LAJAX 4510264:08Touchdown +7
22JAXJAX 3514513:09Turnover on downs
23LALA 14301:49End of game

6 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Jaguars gained 80 scrimmage yards over 7 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Los Angeles Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Matthew Stafford21/331825008.8

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Kyren Williams12544.500.6
Blake Corum12373.10-2.1
Matthew Stafford210.50-0.3
Jimmy Garoppolo3-3-1.000.0

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Colby Parkinson334709%3.7
Davante Adams5835324%1.2
Terrance Ferguson133119%3.7
Tyler Higbee3619018%-1.5
Xavier Smith231509%-0.3
Kyren Williams231109%0.6
Jordan Whittington249012%-1.1
Blake Corum11603%0.3
Konata Mumpfield11513%1.7
Davis Allen11403%0.4

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Kam Curl820.001
Nate Landman361.500
Quentin Lake421.002
Kamren Kinchens410.000
Jaylen McCollough310.001
Emmanuel Forbes400.000
Kobie Turner120.001
Troy Reeder300.000
Josh Wallace200.000
Cobie Durant200.000

Jacksonville Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Trevor Lawrence23/48296107-13.9

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Travis Etienne8445.503.0
Bhayshul Tuten5224.400.1
Trevor Lawrence2189.00-1.7
Parker Washington3103.301.4
Travis Hunter100.00-0.7

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Travis Hunter814101130%2.3
Parker Washington41052021%-2.3
Dyami Brown245009%-1.9
Brian Thomas Jr.3731015%-2.2
Tim Patrick112202%1.7
Hunter Long231606%0.4
Travis Etienne131106%-0.6
Johnny Mundt14909%-1.8
LeQuint Allen Jr.11402%-0.0

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Ventrell Miller430.000
Jourdan Lewis420.001
Eric Murray320.000
Andrew Wingard220.001
Montaric Brown400.000
Arik Armstead220.000
Maason Smith210.000
DaVon Hamilton300.000
Foye Oluokun110.001
Greg Newsome II200.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
LA -3
Closing total
44.5
LA moneyline
-166
JAX moneyline
+140

Rams closed -3 and covered, winning by 28.

Total closed 44.5; the game landed 42 — under by 2.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
TIAA Bank Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
59°F, wind 9 mph
Referee
Adrian Hill
Rest
LA 7 days · JAX 7 days
Coaches
Sean McVay vs Liam Coen