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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:25 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2025 Week 7 · Sun, Oct 19, 2025 · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2025 Week 7
It turned at Q1 9:31, 1st and 20, on Travis Kelce — 10.4 win-probability points to the Chiefs on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Kansas City Chiefs 31–0 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 9:31, Chiefs +10.4% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 9:31 · 1st and 20
Travis Kelce
Chiefs
(9:31) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right to 87-T.Kelce pushed ob at LV 40 for 44 yards (52-E.Roberts; 11-J.Chinn).
10.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Chiefs won this one — 51% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Raiders at 13% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Chiefs won this one — 9 of 14 on third down, against Raiders at 0 of 7 on third down.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Chiefs won this one — +0.22 expected points per snap, against Raiders at -0.67 expected points per snap.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Chiefs won this one — +0.55 expected points per dropback, against Raiders at -0.59 expected points per dropback.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 7.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 33 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Raiders.
(9:31) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right to 87-T.Kelce pushed ob at LV 40 for 44 yards (52-E.Roberts; 11-J.Chinn).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Rashee Rice's 2-yard touchdown catch with 6:02 left in the 1st put Kansas City Chiefs ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Rashee Rice2-yd TD catch2-yard touchdown catchfrom Patrick MahomesLead never changed again+70–75 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Raiderscategory by categoryChiefs
Chiefs ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — third-down rate.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.82 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Raiders ran 30 snaps at a 67% dropback rate against Chiefs’s 74 at 54%. Red-zone trips: Raiders 0, Chiefs 6.
Chiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.22 expected points added per play vs -0.67.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
2 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
KC's play-action rate, 7.5%, is past their previous low of 10.5% in week 6 — the lowest of their 7 charted games through week 7.
40 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.0 points. · −1.0σ from their own normal
LV's play-action rate turned over: 40.0% in week 6 against 20.0% here — they faked the run then and dropped back clean now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
20 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.5 points. · −0.7σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 24 pts
Over Expected room →Raiders0.6 ptsright on their number · +2.2 vs their -1.6 pts, and they swing ±9.1 week to week (+0.25× that swing) · 30 snaps
Chiefs-1.1 ptsinside their normal wobble · −5.0 vs their 3.8 pts, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (−0.66× that swing) · 74 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 24% to 92%
Tendencies room →Raiders54.5%right on their number · −3.4 vs their 57.9%, and they swing ±13.4 week to week (−0.25× that swing) · 22 early downs
Chiefs58.6%inside their normal wobble · −3.7 vs their 62.3%, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (−0.52× that swing) · 58 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -6% to 48%
Tendencies room →Raiders20.0%inside their normal wobble · −5.6 vs their 25.6%, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (−0.66× that swing) · 20 dropbacks
Chiefs7.5%leaned — dropped back clean · −8.1 vs their 15.6%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (−1.02× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -34% to 143%
Fourth Down room →Raiders25.0%inside their normal wobble · −29.5 vs their 54.5%, and they swing ±34.7 week to week (−0.85× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
Chiefs—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 56.0%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 3% to 70%
Tendencies room →Raiders17.5%inside their normal wobble · −4.5 vs their 22.0%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (−0.68× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Chiefs35.0%right on their number · −4.7 vs their 39.7%, and they swing ±11.8 week to week (−0.39× that swing) · 20 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -6% to 33%
Tendencies room →Raiders7.5%inside their normal wobble · −6.4 vs their 13.9%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−0.84× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Chiefs10.0%leaned — stayed blocked · −7.1 vs their 17.1%, and they swing ±5.7 week to week (−1.23× that swing) · 20 dropbacks
KC's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 10.0%, 7.1 points below their season mean of 17.1% and 1.2 times their own 5.7-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Las Vegas Raiders
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Kansas City Chiefs
48 dressed · 5 inactive
Inactive · 5
Who moved the needle
Passing · KC
26/35, 286 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT
19.3 expected points added · +6.1% completion over expected
Passing · LV
10/16, 67 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
-9.7 expected points added · -8.0% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Travis Kelce banked 3.6 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick MahomesQB · Starter QB | 26.2 | +0.6 | 80% | — | 0% | — | 26/35, 286 yd, 3 TD · 4 car, 28 yd |
| Rashee RiceWR · Alpha Receiver | 23.2 | +0.9 | 41% | 48% | 29% | 4% | 7/10, 42 yd, 2 TD |
| Brashard SmithRB · Committee Back | 13.1 | −5.9 | 35% | 23% | 15% | 0% | 14 car, 39 yd · 5/5, 42 yd |
| Isiah PachecoRB · Committee Back | 12.4 | 0.0 | 56% | 63% | 6% | 0% | 15 car, 57 yd, 1 TD · 1/2, -3 yd |
| Marquise BrownWR · Rotational Receiver | 9.4 | +1.3 | 33% | 48% | 12% | 19% | 2/4, 14 yd, 1 TD |
| Travis KelceTE · Rotational Receiver | 8.4 | +3.6 | 62% | 83% | 9% | 11% | 3/3, 54 yd |
| Tre TuckerWR · Alpha Receiver | 8.3 | +0.1 | 89% | 90% | 35% | 19% | 5/6, 33 yd |
| Xavier WorthyWR · Rotational Receiver | 7.8 | −0.1 | 59% | 75% | 12% | 19% | 1 car, 13 yd · 3/4, 35 yd |
| JuJu Smith-SchusterWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.5 | +1.7 | 36% | 48% | 9% | 13% | 3/3, 35 yd |
| Tyquan ThorntonWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.9 | +0.9 | 33% | 33% | 6% | 39% | 1/2, 39 yd |
| Ashton JeantyRB · Committee Back | 4.4 | +0.3 | 63% | 55% | 6% | 0% | 6 car, 21 yd · 1/1, 13 yd |
| Noah GrayTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.8 | +2.0 | 59% | 48% | 3% | 7% | 1/1, 28 yd |
| Jack BechWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.3 | +0.6 | 63% | 80% | 12% | 14% | 2/2, 13 yd |
| Geno SmithQB · Starter QB | 2.8 | −1.3 | 86% | — | 0% | — | 10/16, 67 yd · 2 car, 1 yd |
| Michael MayerTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.0 | −0.5 | 94% | 95% | 12% | 18% | 1/2, 10 yd |
| Kareem HuntRB | 1.8 | +0.2 | 19% | 20% | 0% | — | 4 car, 18 yd |
| Dylan LaubeRB | 1.4 | −1.1 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Carter RunyonTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.3 | −0.1 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Raheem MostertRB | 1.2 | −0.1 | 26% | 40% | 6% | 2% | 1/1, 2 yd |
| Nikko RemigioWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 15% | — | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Dont'e Thornton Jr.WR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −4.3 | 86% | 85% | 18% | 67% | 0/3, 0 yd |
| Alex BachmanWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Gardner MinshewQB | -0.3 | 0.0 | 20% | — | 0% | — | 3 car, -3 yd |
| Kenny PickettQB | -1.7 | −2.2 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Chiefs attack right, the Raiders attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(9:31) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right to 87-T.Kelce pushed ob at LV 40 for 44 yards (52-E.Roberts; 11-J.Chinn).
Q1 9:31 · Chiefs · 1st & 20 at KC 16 · gained 44 · +3.28 EP · +8.4% win probability
139 snaps placed · 9 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 148 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 139 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 143. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
5 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was KC moving 94 yards from the KC 6 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; KC attacks right, LV attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
148 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
148 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Raiders0
Chiefs6Raiders0Chiefs7Raiders0Chiefs13Raiders0Chiefs14Raiders0Chiefs20Raiders0Chiefs21Raiders0Chiefs27Raiders0Chiefs28Raiders0Chiefs31Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Raiders at Chiefs, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 10/16 | 67 | 0 | 0 | 1 | −9.7 |
| Kenny Pickett | 2/2 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −0.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ashton Jeanty | 6 | 21 | 3.5 | 0 | −1.4 |
| Dylan Laube | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 | −0.6 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tre Tucker | 5 | 6 | 33 | 0 | 35% | +0.1 |
| Ashton Jeanty | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 6% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elandon Roberts | 6 | 11 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Devin White | 6 | 10 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Isaiah Pola-Mao |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 26/35 | 286 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +19.3 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2025_07_LV_KC
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Chiefs closed -13.5 and covered, winning by 31.
Total closed 44.5; the game landed 31 — under by 13.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| Geno Smith | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | −2.3 |
| Kenny Pickett | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | −5.3 |
| −0.1 |
| Jack Bech | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 12% | −0.5 |
| Michael Mayer | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 12% | −1.4 |
| Carter Runyon | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 6% | −0.2 |
| Raheem Mostert | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6% | −0.7 |
| Dylan Laube | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6% | −1.0 |
| Dont'e Thornton Jr. | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 18% | −4.3 |
| 8 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Jeremy Chinn | 8 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Malcolm Koonce | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Thomas Booker | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonah Laulu | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Jamal Adams | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Maxx Crosby | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eric Stokes | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Isiah Pacheco | 15 | 57 | 3.8 | 1 | −1.0 |
| Brashard Smith | 14 | 39 | 2.8 | 0 | −7.4 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 4 | 28 | 7.0 | 0 | +2.6 |
| Kareem Hunt | 4 | 18 | 4.5 | 0 | +2.2 |
| Xavier Worthy | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 | +0.9 |
| Gardner Minshew | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 | −0.1 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | 3 | 3 | 54 | 0 | 9% | +3.4 |
| Brashard Smith | 5 | 5 | 42 | 0 | 15% | +3.3 |
| Rashee Rice | 7 | 10 | 42 | 2 | 29% | +4.4 |
| Tyquan Thornton | 1 | 2 | 39 | 0 | 6% | +1.9 |
| Xavier Worthy | 3 | 4 | 35 | 0 | 12% | +1.7 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 3 | 3 | 35 | 0 | 9% | +4.5 |
| Noah Gray | 1 | 1 | 28 | 0 | 3% | +2.1 |
| Marquise Brown | 2 | 4 | 14 | 1 | 12% | +1.4 |
| Isiah Pacheco | 1 | 2 | -3 | 0 | 6% | −1.8 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent McDuffie | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Roland-Wallace | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaden Hicks | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nohl Williams | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chamarri Conner | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cooper McDonald | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Jones | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick Bolton | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| George Karlaftis | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Drue Tranquill | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
