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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:57 AM ET · 16 to play
2025 Week 7 · Sun, Oct 19, 2025 · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
Final
RaidersLas Vegas0
BY 31final margin
ChiefsKansas City31
Las Vegas Raiders 0 at Kansas City Chiefs 31. Final.
Chiefs -13.5 ✓U 44.5 ✓
The verdict · 2025 Week 7
Kansas City Chiefs 31, Raiders 0 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 9:31, 1st and 20, on Travis Kelce — 10.4 win-probability points to the Chiefs on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 9:31 · 1st and 20
Travis Kelce
Chiefs
(9:31) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right to 87-T.Kelce pushed ob at LV 40 for 44 yards (52-E.Roberts; 11-J.Chinn).
Chiefs closed -13.5 and covered, winning by 31.
Kansas City Chiefs 31–0 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 9:31, Chiefs +10.4% win probability on one snap.
10.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Tre TuckerRaidersQ1 14:19(14:19) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short right to 1-T.Tucker to KC 49 for 10 yards (22-T.McDuffie).
2.4pts
Rashee RiceRaidersQ1 9:58(9:58) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 4-R.Rice to KC 26 for no gain (33-J.Adams). PENALTY on KC-9-J.Smith-Schuster, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at KC 26 - No Play.
3.3pts
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Chiefs won this one — 51% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Raiders at 13% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Chiefs won this one — 9 of 14 on third down, against Raiders at 0 of 7 on third down.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Chiefs won this one — +0.22 expected points per snap, against Raiders at -0.67 expected points per snap.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Chiefs won this one — +0.55 expected points per dropback, against Raiders at -0.59 expected points per dropback.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 7.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 33 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Raiders.
MarketModelmodel higher on Chiefshigher on Raiders141 of 148 plays carry both curves
(9:31) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right to 87-T.Kelce pushed ob at LV 40 for 44 yards (52-E.Roberts; 11-J.Chinn).
Swing +10.4 for ChiefsExpected points +3.28 for ChiefsThe model had Raiders 23 points higher than the market did.play 14
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 9:31KC +10% win prob(9:31) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right to 87-T.Kelce pushed ob at LV 40 for 44 yards (52-E.Roberts; 11-J.Chinn).
1st · 9:58LV +3% win prob(9:58) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 4-R.Rice to KC 26 for no gain (33-J.Adams). PENALTY on KC-9-J.Smith-Schuster, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at KC 26 - No Play.
1st · 14:19KC +2% win prob(14:19) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short right to 1-T.Tucker to KC 49 for 10 yards (22-T.McDuffie).
1st · 11:44LV +2% win prob(11:44) (Shotgun) 10-I.Pacheco up the middle to KC 10 for 2 yards (99-T.Booker; 51-M.Koonce).
1st · 13:00LV +2% win prob(13:00) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short middle to 10-D.Thornton to KC 33 for 13 yards (35-J.Watson). PENALTY on LV-58-J.Powers-Johnson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at KC 46 - No Play.
1st · 13:04LV +2% win prob(13:04) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass incomplete short right to 10-D.Thornton (35-J.Watson).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Rashee Rice's 2-yard touchdown catch with 6:02 left in the 1st put Kansas City Chiefs ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Lead
1st6:02Rashee Rice·2-yd TD catch2-yard touchdown catchfrom Patrick Mahomesfrom Patrick MahomesLead never changed again+70–7
2nd9:20Marquise Brown·8-yd TD catch8-yard touchdown catchfrom Patrick Mahomesfrom Patrick Mahomes+70–14
2nd0:13Rashee Rice·3-yd TD catch3-yard touchdown catchfrom Patrick Mahomesfrom Patrick Mahomes+70–21
3rd2:41Harrison Butker·38-yd field goal38-yard field goalholder M.Araiza · snap J.Winchester+30–31
5 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Raiderscategory by categoryChiefs
Raiders0–8Chiefs
95Total yards437
3.2Yards per play5.9
13%Success rate51%
0%Third-down rate64%
0Red-zone touchdowns4
0Explosive plays6
2First downs28
1Sacks taken1
1Turnovers0
The read
Chiefs ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — third-down rate.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.82 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.67Raiders: −0.67 expected points added per play
+0.22Chiefs: +0.22 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.59Raiders: −0.59 expected points added per play
+0.55Chiefs: +0.55 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.82Raiders: −0.82 expected points added per play
−0.15Chiefs: −0.15 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Raiders ran 30 snaps at a 67% dropback rate against Chiefs’s 74 at 54%. Red-zone trips: Raiders 0, Chiefs 6.
NoteChiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.22 expected points added per play vs -0.67.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
LV's play-action rate turned over: 40.0% in week 6 against 20.0% here — they faked the run then and dropped back clean now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
20 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.5 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 24 pts
inside their normal wobble · −6.4 vs their 13.9%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−0.84× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Chiefs10.0%
leaned — stayed blocked · −7.1 vs their 17.1%, and they swing ±5.7 week to week (−1.23× that swing) · 20 dropbacks
NoteKC's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 10.0%, 7.1 points below their season mean of 17.1% and 1.2 times their own 5.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Las Vegas Raiders
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
—Delmar GlazeT · Every snap100%35 snaps
61Jordan MeredithC · Every snap100%35 snaps
70Stone ForsytheT · Full-time97%34 snaps
66Dylan ParhamG · Full-time97%34 snaps
87Michael MayerTE · Full-time94%33 snaps
1Tre TuckerWR · Full-time89%31 snaps
10Dont'e Thornton Jr.WR · Full-time86%30 snaps
7Geno SmithQB · Full-time86%30 snaps
58Jackson Powers-JohnsonG · Heavy rotation71%25 snaps
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Chiefs attack right, the Raiders attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Raiders←Chiefs→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
P.Mahomes pass+8% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(9:31) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right to 87-T.Kelce pushed ob at LV 40 for 44 yards (52-E.Roberts; 11-J.Chinn).
Q1 9:31 · Chiefs · 1st & 20 at KC 16 · gained 44 · +3.28 EP · +8.4% win probability
139 snaps placed · 9 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 148 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 139 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 143. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
5 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was KC moving 94 yards from the KC 6 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; KC attacks right, LV attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
148 of 148 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
148
EPA per play
+0.02
Success rate
43%
Yards
529
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Chiefs1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR37+0.0654%
Chiefs1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR23+0.4148%
Raiders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR19-0.6179%
Raiders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7-1.0114%
Chiefs1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR6-0.1750%
Raiders1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Chiefs2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Chiefs1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Raiders2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Chiefs2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Chiefs1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Chiefs1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
148 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
148 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter36 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Raiders 38 to the Chiefs 46
Raiders0Chiefs6
Raiders0Chiefs7
Touchdown12 plays, from the Chiefs 8 to the Raiders 2
Punt8 plays, from the Raiders 35 to the Raiders 46
The period ended7 plays, from the Chiefs 16 to the Chiefs 40
2nd quarter45 plays
Raiders0Chiefs13
Raiders0Chiefs14
Touchdown14 plays, from the Chiefs 40 to the Raiders 3
Punt6 plays, from the Raiders 37 to the Raiders 43
Raiders0Chiefs20
Raiders0Chiefs21
Touchdown22 plays, from the Chiefs 6 to the Raiders 3
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter35 plays
Raiders0Chiefs27
Raiders0Chiefs28
Touchdown13 plays, from the Chiefs 35 to the Raiders 7
Punt5 plays, from the Raiders 35 to the Raiders 37
Raiders0Chiefs31
Field goal9 plays, from the Chiefs 14 to the Raiders 20
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Raiders 35 to the Raiders 42
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter32 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Raiders 39 to the Raiders 37
Punt6 plays, from the Raiders 8 to the Raiders 22
Punt7 plays, from the Chiefs 32 to midfield
Fumble lost1 play
Turnover on downs4 plays, from the Raiders 11 to the Raiders 5
Punt4 plays, from the Raiders 4 to the Raiders 13
Punt4 plays
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Chiefs -13.5
Closing total
44.5
Raiders moneyline
+625
Chiefs moneyline
-950
Chiefs closed -13.5 and covered, winning by 31.
Total closed 44.5; the game landed 31 — under by 13.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Cool, 57°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 8 mph out of the west; clear.
Referee
Clete Blakeman
Rest
Raiders 7 days · Chiefs 7 days
Coaches
Pete Carroll vs Andy Reid
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
2nd · 15:00KC +2% win prob(15:00) 29-K.Hunt left guard to KC 43 for 3 yards (98-M.Crosby).
1st · 6:08KC +2% win prob(6:08) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete short left to 9-J.Smith-Schuster. PENALTY on LV-36-K.Kelly, Defensive Holding, 2 yards, enforced at LV 4 - No Play.
