2025 Week 7 · Sun, Oct 19, 2025 · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium

Las Vegas Raiders

Kansas City ChiefsWinner

KC -13.5 ✓U 44.5 ✓Chiefs closed -13.5 and covered, winning by 31.

Kansas City Chiefs 31–0 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 9:31, KC +10% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 9:31LV 0 — KC 0KC ball · 1st & 20KC 83%

(9:31) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right to 87-T.Kelce pushed ob at LV 40 for 44 yards (52-E.Roberts; 11-J.Chinn).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 9:31KC +10% win prob(9:31) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right to 87-T.Kelce pushed ob at LV 40 for 44 yards (52-E.Roberts; 11-J.Chinn).
Q1 · 9:58LV +3% win prob(9:58) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 4-R.Rice to KC 26 for no gain (33-J.Adams). PENALTY on KC-9-J.Smith-Schuster, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at KC 26 - No Play.
Q1 · 14:19KC +2% win prob(14:19) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short right to 1-T.Tucker to KC 49 for 10 yards (22-T.McDuffie).
Q1 · 11:44LV +2% win prob(11:44) (Shotgun) 10-I.Pacheco up the middle to KC 10 for 2 yards (99-T.Booker; 51-M.Koonce).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 6:02KC Touchdown
(6:02) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 4-R.Rice for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC-29-K.Hunt was injured during the play. PENALTY on LV-99-T.Booker, Face Mask, 8 yards, enforced between downs. (kick good)
Score after this play: LV 0 — KC 7
Q2 · 9:20KC Touchdown
(9:20) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 5-M.Brown for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: LV 0 — KC 14
Q2 · 0:13KC Touchdown
(:13) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 4-R.Rice for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: LV 0 — KC 21
Q3 · 9:05KC Touchdown
(9:05) 10-I.Pacheco left tackle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on LV, Defensive Too Many Men on Field, declined. (kick good)
Score after this play: LV 0 — KC 28
Q3 · 2:41KC Field goal
(2:41) 7-H.Butker 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.
Score after this play: LV 0 — KC 31

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Raiders	Chiefs
Offensive plays	30	74
Total yards	95	437 (edge)
Yards per play	3.2	5.9 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.67	0.22 (edge)
Success rate	13%	51% (edge)
Dropback rate	67%	54%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.59	0.55 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.82	-0.15 (edge)
Third downs	0/7	9/14 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	0	6 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	2	28 (edge)
Sacks taken	1	1
Turnovers	1	0 (edge)

Chiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.22 expected points added per play vs -0.67.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · KC

Patrick MahomesQB

26/35, 286 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

19.3 expected points added · +6.1% completion over expected

Passing · LV

Geno SmithQB

10/16, 67 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-9.7 expected points added · -8.0% completion over expected

Rushing · KC

Isiah PachecoRB

15 att, 57 yds, 1 TD

-1.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · KC

Brashard SmithRB

14 att, 39 yds, 0 TD

-7.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · KC

Travis KelceTE

3/3 for 54 yds, 0 TD

9% of team targets · 3.4 expected points added

Receiving · KC

Brashard SmithRB

5/5 for 42 yds, 0 TD

15% of team targets · 3.3 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	LV	LV 38	7	26	3:16	Punt
2	KC	KC 8	10	100	5:46	Touchdown +7
3	LV	LV 35	7	8	3:01	Punt
4	KC	KC 16	18	84	8:40	Touchdown +7
5	LV	LV 37	5	11	2:45	Punt
6	KC	KC 6	17	91	6:22	Touchdown +7
7	LV	LV 35	2	6	0:10	End of half
8	KC	KC 35	13	63	6:00	Touchdown +7
9	LV	LV 35	5	-3	1:58	Punt
10	KC	KC 14	9	66	4:26	Field goal +3
11	LV	LV 35	5	22	2:28	Turnover on downs
12	KC	LV 41	4	8	1:55	Punt
13	LV	LV 8	5	14	1:32	Punt
14	KC	KC 32	7	18	4:33	Punt
15	LV	LV 14	1	0	0:04	Fumble
16	KC	LV 11	4	7	2:17	Turnover on downs
17	LV	LV 4	4	9	2:11	Punt
18	KC	KC 43	4	0	2:09	Punt
19	LV	LV 26	1	2	0:27	End of game

5 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Chiefs gained 100 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Las Vegas Raiders

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Geno Smith	10/16	67	0	0	1	-9.7
Kenny Pickett	2/2	8	0	0	0	-0.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Ashton Jeanty	6	21	3.5	-1.4
Dylan Laube	2	3	1.5	-0.6
Geno Smith	2	1	0.5	-2.3
Kenny Pickett	1	0	0.0	-5.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Tre Tucker	5	6	33	35%	0.1
Ashton Jeanty	1	1	13	6%	-0.1
Jack Bech	2	2	13	12%	-0.5
Michael Mayer	1	2	10	12%	-1.4
Carter Runyon	1	1	3	6%	-0.2
Raheem Mostert	1	1	2	6%	-0.7
Dylan Laube	1	1	1	6%	-1.0
Dont'e Thornton Jr.	0	3	0	18%	-4.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Elandon Roberts	6	11	0.0	0
Devin White	6	10	0.0	0
Jeremy Chinn	8	2	0.0	0
Isaiah Pola-Mao	8	2	0.0	0
Thomas Booker	2	4	0.0	0
Malcolm Koonce	2	4	0.0	0
Jonah Laulu	1	2	0.0	2
Maxx Crosby	1	2	0.0	0
Jamal Adams	2	1	1.0	0
Tristin McCollum	1	1	0.0	0

Kansas City Chiefs

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Patrick Mahomes	26/35	286	3	0	1	19.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Isiah Pacheco	15	57	3.8	1	-1.0
Brashard Smith	14	39	2.8	0	-7.4
Patrick Mahomes	4	28	7.0	0	2.6
Kareem Hunt	4	18	4.5	0	2.2
Xavier Worthy	1	13	13.0	0	0.9
Gardner Minshew	3	-3	-1.0	0	-0.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Travis Kelce	3	3	54	0	9%	3.4
Brashard Smith	5	5	42	0	15%	3.3
Rashee Rice	7	10	42	2	29%	4.4
Tyquan Thornton	1	2	39	0	6%	1.9
Xavier Worthy	3	4	35	0	12%	1.7
JuJu Smith-Schuster	3	3	35	0	9%	4.5
Noah Gray	1	1	28	0	3%	2.1
Marquise Brown	2	4	14	1	12%	1.4
Isiah Pacheco	1	2	-3	0	6%	-1.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks
Trent McDuffie	4	2	0.0
Christian Roland-Wallace	3	1	0.0
Jaden Hicks	1	2	0.0
Nohl Williams	1	2	0.0
Chamarri Conner	1	1	0.0
Chris Jones	1	1	1.0
Cooper McDonald	2	0	0.0
Nick Bolton	1	1	0.0
Jerry Tillery	1	0	0.0
Drue Tranquill	1	0	0.0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: KC -13.5
Closing total: 44.5
LV moneyline: +625
KC moneyline: -950

Chiefs closed -13.5 and covered, winning by 31.

Total closed 44.5; the game landed 31 — under by 13.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 57°F, wind 9 mph
Referee: Clete Blakeman
Rest: LV 7 days · KC 7 days
Coaches: Pete Carroll vs Andy Reid

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.