2025 Week 7 · Sun, Oct 19, 2025 · FirstEnergy Stadium

Miami Dolphins

Cleveland BrownsWinner

CLE -2.5 ✓O 34.5 ✓17 mph windBrowns closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 25.

Cleveland Browns 31–6 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 11:28, CLE +12% win probability on one snap. Played in 17 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 11:28MIA 3 — CLE 9CLE ball · 1st & 10CLE 59%

(11:28) 56-L.Wypler reported in as eligible. 10-Q.Judkins right guard for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA-29-M.Fitzpatrick was injured during the play.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 11:28CLE +12% win prob(11:28) 56-L.Wypler reported in as eligible. 10-Q.Judkins right guard for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA-29-M.Fitzpatrick was injured during the play.
Q1 · 2:12CLE +9% win prob(2:12) 28-D.Achane left end pushed ob at CLE 31 for 46 yards (7-T.Campbell).
Q3 · 14:56MIA +8% win prob(14:56) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left intended for 28-D.Achane INTERCEPTED by 7-T.Campbell at MIA 34. 7-T.Campbell for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 11:19MIA +7% win prob25-A.Szmyt kicks 57 yards from CLE 35 to MIA 8. 82-D.Eskridge to MIA 31 for 23 yards (9-G.Delpit). FUMBLES (9-G.Delpit), touched at MIA 33, RECOVERED by CLE-5-R.Jenkins at MIA 46.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 2:21CLE Field goal
(2:21) 25-A.Szmyt 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.
Score after this play: MIA 0 — CLE 3
Q2 · 14:18MIA Field goal
(14:18) 47-R.Patterson 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-16-J.Bailey.
Score after this play: MIA 3 — CLE 3
Q2 · 11:28CLE Touchdown
(11:28) 56-L.Wypler reported in as eligible. 10-Q.Judkins right guard for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA-29-M.Fitzpatrick was injured during the play. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIA 3 — CLE 10
Q2 · 6:08CLE Touchdown
(6:08) (Shotgun) 56-L.Wypler and 74-T.Jenkins reported in as eligible. Direct snap to 10-Q.Judkins. 10-Q.Judkins up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIA 3 — CLE 17
Q2 · 0:03MIA Field goal
(:03) 47-R.Patterson 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-16-J.Bailey.
Score after this play: MIA 6 — CLE 17
Q3 · 14:56CLE Touchdown
(14:56) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left intended for 28-D.Achane INTERCEPTED by 7-T.Campbell at MIA 34. 7-T.Campbell for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIA 6 — CLE 24
Q4 · 10:59CLE Touchdown
(10:59) (Shotgun) 56-L.Wypler and 74-T.Jenkins reported in as eligible. Direct snap to 10-Q.Judkins. 10-Q.Judkins right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIA 6 — CLE 31

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Dolphins	Browns
Offensive plays	57	52
Total yards	219 (edge)	207
Yards per play	3.8	4.0 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.56	-0.08 (edge)
Success rate	23%	27% (edge)
Dropback rate	63%	44%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.74	0.02 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.24	-0.16 (edge)
Third downs	1/13	4/11 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	4 (edge)	3
First downs gained on snaps	10	11 (edge)
Sacks taken	4	2 (edge)
Turnovers	4	0 (edge)

Dolphins outgained Browns 219–207 but lost the turnover battle 4–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CLE

Dillon GabrielQB

13/18, 116 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

0.8 expected points added · +0.2% completion over expected

Passing · MIA

Tua TagovailoaQB

12/23, 100 yds, 0 TD, 3 INT

-23.5 expected points added · -12.5% completion over expected

Rushing · CLE

Quinshon JudkinsRB

25 att, 84 yds, 3 TD

-1.7 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · MIA

De'Von AchaneRB

13 att, 82 yds, 0 TD

-0.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CLE

Harold Fannin Jr.TE

4/5 for 36 yds, 0 TD

28% of team targets · 1.8 expected points added

Receiving · MIA

Malik WashingtonWR

5/8 for 30 yds, 0 TD

27% of team targets · -3.8 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CLE	CLE 33	5	7	2:23	Punt
2	MIA	MIA 10	7	21	3:37	Punt
3	CLE	CLE 31	11	42	6:43	Field goal +3
4	MIA	MIA 23	7	62	3:03	Field goal +3
5	CLE	CLE 17	7	69	2:55	Touchdown +7
6	MIA	—	1	0	0:06	Fumble
7	CLE	MIA 46	11	31	5:10	Touchdown +7
8	MIA	MIA 47	7	-1	1:59	Punt
9	CLE	CLE 10	4	-9	1:11	Punt
10	MIA	CLE 40	9	34	2:53	Field goal +3
11	MIA	MIA 30	2	0	0:12	Defensive touchdown
12	MIA	MIA 20	5	-9	2:13	Punt
13	CLE	MIA 44	4	6	2:12	Punt
14	MIA	MIA 8	12	64	7:10	Turnover on downs
15	CLE	CLE 28	10	37	5:45	Punt
16	MIA	MIA 5	3	2	1:29	Interception
17	CLE	MIA 2	2	2	0:03	Touchdown +7
18	MIA	MIA 29	3	11	0:58	Interception
19	CLE	MIA 42	4	4	1:42	Punt
20	MIA	MIA 20	4	-2	1:31	Punt
21	CLE	CLE 38	6	18	3:04	Punt
22	MIA	MIA 9	9	37	3:04	Turnover on downs
23	CLE	MIA 41	1	0	0:37	End of game

6 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Browns gained 69 scrimmage yards over 7 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Miami Dolphins

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Tua Tagovailoa	12/23	100	0	3	2	-23.5
Quinn Ewers	5/8	53	0	0	2	-3.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
De'Von Achane	13	82	6.3	-0.6
Ollie Gordon II	5	11	2.2	-0.3
Tua Tagovailoa	3	6	2.0	-3.4
Quinn Ewers	1	0	0.0	-1.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Dee Eskridge	2	2	45	7%	3.8
Malik Washington	5	8	30	27%	-3.8
Tanner Conner	1	3	28	10%	-3.3
De'Von Achane	3	5	16	17%	-8.6
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine	3	4	16	13%	-0.7
Jaylen Waddle	1	4	15	13%	-0.5
Ollie Gordon II	1	2	2	7%	-1.4
Julian Hill	1	2	1	7%	-4.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Jordyn Brooks	5	4	0.0	0
Tyrel Dodson	5	3	1.0	0
Ashtyn Davis	6	1	0.0	0
Bradley Chubb	3	2	0.0	0
Kenneth Grant	4	1	0.0	0
Minkah Fitzpatrick	3	1	0.0	0
Ifeatu Melifonwu	1	1	0.0	0
Jaelan Phillips	1	1	1.0	0
Zach Sieler	2	0	0.0	0
Ethan Bonner	1	1	0.0	1

Cleveland Browns

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Dillon Gabriel	13/18	116	0	0	2	0.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Quinshon Judkins	25	84	3.4	3	-1.7
Dillon Gabriel	4	12	3.0	0	-2.4
Dylan Sampson	3	8	2.7	0	-1.3
Jerome Ford	1	0	0.0	0	-1.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Harold Fannin Jr.	4	5	36	28%	1.8
Jamari Thrash	1	2	23	11%	1.9
Malachi Corley	2	2	17	11%	1.3
Jerry Jeudy	2	4	17	22%	-1.1
Jerome Ford	2	2	10	11%	1.0
Dylan Sampson	1	1	9	6%	0.9
Blake Whiteheart	1	1	4	6%	-1.2
Gage Larvadain	0	1	0	6%	-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Devin Bush	3	3	0.0	0	0
Carson Schwesinger	2	4	0.0	0	0
Alex Wright	4	1	0.0	0	0
Myles Harden	3	1	0.0	0	1
Jerome Baker	1	3	1.0	0	0
Grant Delpit	3	1	1.0	0	0
Shelby Harris	1	2	0.0	0	0
Mason Graham	3	0	0.0	0	1
Denzel Ward	3	0	0.0	0	0
Rayshawn Jenkins	2	1	0.0	1	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: CLE -2.5
Closing total: 34.5
MIA moneyline: +124
CLE moneyline: -148

Browns closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 25.

Total closed 34.5; the game landed 37 — over by 2.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: FirstEnergy Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 65°F, wind 17 mph
Referee: Shawn Hochuli
Rest: MIA 7 days · CLE 7 days
Coaches: Mike McDaniel vs Kevin Stefanski

Wind at 17 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.