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Cleveland Browns 31, Dolphins 6 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q2 11:28, 1st and 10, on Quinshon Judkins — 12.5 win-probability points to the Browns on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 11:28 · 1st and 10
Quinshon Judkins
Browns
(11:28) 56-L.Wypler reported in as eligible. 10-Q.Judkins right guard for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA-29-M.Fitzpatrick was injured during the play.
18.7 mph wind
Browns closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 25.
Cleveland Browns 31–6 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 11:28, Browns +12.5% win probability on one snap. Played in 18.7 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
12.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
De'Von AchaneDolphinsQ1 2:12(2:12) 28-D.Achane left end pushed ob at CLE 31 for 46 yards (7-T.Campbell).
8.7pts
Tyson CampbellBrownsQ3 14:56(14:56) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left intended for 28-D.Achane INTERCEPTED by 7-T.Campbell at MIA 34. 7-T.Campbell for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
8.1pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Browns won this one — no giveaways, against Dolphins at 4 giveaways.
Brownsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Browns won this one — +0.02 expected points per dropback, against Dolphins at -0.74 expected points per dropback.
Brownsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Browns won this one — -0.08 expected points per snap, against Dolphins at -0.56 expected points per snap.
Brownsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Browns won this one — 4 of 11 on third down, against Dolphins at 1 of 13 on third down.
(11:28) 56-L.Wypler reported in as eligible. 10-Q.Judkins right guard for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA-29-M.Fitzpatrick was injured during the play.
Swing +12.5 for BrownsExpected points +4.05 for BrownsModel and market agree here.play 42
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 11:28CLE +12% win prob(11:28) 56-L.Wypler reported in as eligible. 10-Q.Judkins right guard for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA-29-M.Fitzpatrick was injured during the play.
1st · 2:12CLE +9% win prob(2:12) 28-D.Achane left end pushed ob at CLE 31 for 46 yards (7-T.Campbell).
3rd · 14:56MIA +8% win prob(14:56) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left intended for 28-D.Achane INTERCEPTED by 7-T.Campbell at MIA 34. 7-T.Campbell for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 11:19MIA +7% win prob25-A.Szmyt kicks 57 yards from CLE 35 to MIA 8. 82-D.Eskridge to MIA 31 for 23 yards (9-G.Delpit). FUMBLES (9-G.Delpit), touched at MIA 33, RECOVERED by CLE-5-R.Jenkins at MIA 46.
1st · 6:37CLE +7% win prob(6:37) (Shotgun) 8-D.Gabriel pass short left to 3-J.Jeudy to CLE 42 for 16 yards (9-I.Melifonwu).
1st · 7:22CLE +6% win prob(7:22) (Shotgun) 8-D.Gabriel pass incomplete short left to 80-J.Thrash. PENALTY on MIA-26-R.Douglas, Illegal Contact, 5 yards, enforced at CLE 27 - No Play.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Quinshon Judkins's 46-yard rushing touchdown with 11:28 left in the 2nd put Cleveland Browns ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Lead
1st2:21Andre Szmyt·30-yd field goal30-yard field goalholder C.Bojorquez · snap R.Sunahara+30–3
2nd14:18Riley Patterson·33-yd field goal33-yard field goalholder J.Bailey · snap J.Cardona+33–3
2nd11:28Quinshon Judkins·46-yd TD run46-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+73–10
Browns ahead 7–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.74 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.56Dolphins: −0.56 expected points added per play
−0.08Browns: −0.08 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.74Dolphins: −0.74 expected points added per play
+0.02Browns: +0.02 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.24Dolphins: −0.24 expected points added per play
−0.16Browns: −0.16 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Dolphins ran 57 snaps at a 63% dropback rate against Browns’s 52 at 44%. Red-zone trips: Dolphins 2, Browns 4.
NoteDolphins outgained Browns 219-207 but lost the turnover battle 4-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
CLE's early-down pass rate, 34.1%, was the lowest of the 30 team-games charted in week 7 — 1.9 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of 47.9% in week 5.
A 3.2-swing turn from week 6.
41 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.4 points.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
CLE's pass rate over expected, −13.1 pts, was the lowest of the 30 team-games charted in week 7 — 1.6 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of −9.1 pts in week 5.
A 2.3-swing turn from week 6.
52 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.3 points.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekFourth Down
CLE's fourth-and-short go rate, 0.0%, was the lowest of the 20 team-games charted in week 7 — 20.0 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of 20.0% in week 3.
A 2.5-swing turn from week 6.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 12 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 26.8 points.
CLE's play-action rate turned over: 8.6% in week 6 against 30.4% here — they dropped back clean then and faked the run now, a turn of 2.6 of their own weekly swings across the two.
23 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.3 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 11 pts
right on their number · +0.2 vs their 12.8%, and they swing ±4.4 week to week (+0.05× that swing) · 23 dropbacks
Browns19.4%
right on their number · +0.3 vs their 19.1%, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (+0.04× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
NoteCLE's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 34.1%, 22.0 points below their season mean of 56.1% and 1.8 times their own 12.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Miami Dolphins
48 dressed · 7 inactive
52Patrick PaulT · Every snap100%58 snaps
72Jonah SavaiinaeaG · Every snap100%58 snaps
79Larry BoromT · Every snap100%58 snaps
69Cole StrangeG · Every snap100%58 snaps
55Aaron BrewerC · Every snap100%58 snaps
1Tua TagovailoaQB · Heavy rotation79%46 snaps
18Nick Westbrook-IkhineWR · Heavy rotation76%44 snaps
17Jaylen WaddleWR · Heavy rotation76%44 snaps
6Malik WashingtonWR · Heavy rotation64%37 snaps
89Julian HillTE · Heavy rotation60%35 snaps
28De'Von AchaneRB · Heavy rotation55%32 snaps
30Alec IngoldFB · Rotational34%20 snaps
80Tanner ConnerTE · Rotational31%18 snaps
31Ollie Gordon IIRB · Rotational31%18 snaps
82Dee EskridgeWR · Rotational29%17 snaps
83Darren WallerTE · Rotational28%16 snaps
14Quinn EwersQB · Situational21%12 snaps
5Jaylen WrightRB · Situational16%9 snaps
Inactive · 7
Storm DuckCBZeek BiggersDTElijah CampbellFSMatthew JudonOLBZach WilsonQBTahj WashingtonWRCedrick Wilson Jr.WR
Cleveland Browns
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 1 never used
77Wyatt TellerG · Every snap100%57 snaps
75Joel BitonioG · Every snap100%57 snaps
68Cam RobinsonT · Every snap100%57 snaps
55Ethan PocicC · Every snap100%57 snaps
8Dillon GabrielQB · Full-time95%54 snaps
44Harold Fannin Jr.TE · Full-time82%47 snaps
3Jerry JeudyWR · Heavy rotation68%39 snaps
10Quinshon JudkinsRB · Heavy rotation65%37 snaps
86Blake WhiteheartTE · Heavy rotation61%35 snaps
72KT LevestonT · Heavy rotation53%30 snaps
71Cornelius LucasT · Rotational47%27 snaps
16Isaiah BondWR · Rotational44%25 snaps
56Luke WyplerC · Rotational42%24 snaps
80Jamari ThrashWR · Rotational42%24 snaps
84Gage LarvadainWR · Rotational32%18 snaps
34Jerome FordRB · Situational23%13 snaps
83Malachi CorleyWR · Situational23%13 snaps
22Dylan SampsonRB · Situational16%9 snaps
74Teven JenkinsG · Situational7%4 snaps
Inactive · 5
Jarrick Bernard-ConverseCBMike Hall Jr.DTRaheim SandersRBJack ConklinTDavid NjokuTE
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Browns attack right, the Dolphins attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Dolphins←Browns→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
L.Wypler reported+12% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(11:28) 56-L.Wypler reported in as eligible. 10-Q.Judkins right guard for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA-29-M.Fitzpatrick was injured during the play.
Q2 11:28 · Browns · 1st & 10 at MIA 46 · gained 46 · +4.05 EP · +12.5% win probability
147 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 158 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 147 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 153. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was CLE moving 83 yards from the CLE 17 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CLE attacks right, MIA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
158 of 158 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
158
EPA per play
-0.23
Success rate
31%
Yards
425
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Dolphins1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR33-0.3979%
Browns1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR19+0.0453%
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR13+0.1615%
Dolphins2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR13-1.5654%
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9-0.7556%
Dolphins2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR8+0.2925%
Browns1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR8-0.2325%
Dolphins1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR3——
Browns2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
158 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
158 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter32 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Browns 33 to the Browns 40
Punt7 plays, from the Dolphins 10 to the Dolphins 32
Dolphins0Browns3
Field goal14 plays, from the Browns 31 to the Dolphins 12
How the play was built
Three in the backfield, a man in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one back, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
The period ended5 plays, from the Dolphins 23 to the Browns 16
2nd quarter52 plays
Dolphins3Browns3
Field goal3 plays, from the Browns 17 to the Browns 15
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, nobody in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Dolphins3Browns9
Dolphins3Browns10
Touchdown8 plays, from the Browns 17 to the Dolphins 46
Fumble lost1 play
Dolphins3Browns16
Dolphins3Browns17
Touchdown13 plays, from the Dolphins 46 to the Dolphins 3
Punt9 plays, from the Dolphins 47 to the Dolphins 49
Punt5 plays
Dolphins6Browns17
Field goal12 plays, from the Browns 40 to the Browns 8
3rd quarter32 plays
Dolphins6Browns23
Touchdown2 plays
Dolphins6Browns24
Punt5 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Dolphins 44 to the Dolphins 38
Turnover on downs13 plays, from the Dolphins 8 to the Browns 35
The period ended7 plays, from the Browns 28 to the Browns 42
4th quarter42 plays
Punt5 plays
Intercepted4 plays, from the Dolphins 5 to the Dolphins 7
Dolphins6Browns30
Dolphins6Browns31
Touchdown2 plays
Intercepted3 plays, from the Dolphins 29 to the Dolphins 40
Punt5 plays, from the Dolphins 42 to the Dolphins 38
Punt4 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Browns 38 to the Dolphins 37
Turnover on downs11 plays, from the Dolphins 9 to the Browns 34
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Browns -2.5
Closing total
34.5
Dolphins moneyline
+124
Browns moneyline
-148
Browns closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 25.
Total closed 34.5; the game landed 37 — over by 2.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
FirstEnergy Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Mild, 62°F at kickoff; windy at 19 mph out of the south-west; 0.34 in of precipitation; moderate rain.
Referee
Shawn Hochuli
Rest
Dolphins 7 days · Browns 7 days
Coaches
Mike McDaniel vs Kevin Stefanski
NoteWind at 18.7 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.
1st · 10:25MIA +5% win prob(10:25) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa FUMBLES (Aborted) at MIA 27, recovered by MIA-28-D.Achane at MIA 27.
2nd · 11:34CLE +5% win prob(11:34) (Shotgun) 8-D.Gabriel pass deep left intended for 44-H.Fannin INTERCEPTED by 21-A.Davis at MIA 44. 21-A.Davis to MIA 44 for no gain (44-H.Fannin). PENALTY on MIA-29-M.Fitzpatrick, Defensive Pass Interference, 14 yards, enforced at CLE 40 - No Play.
