2025 Week 7 · Sun, Oct 19, 2025 · Nissan Stadium
New England PatriotsWinner
31
Tennessee Titans
13
New England Patriots 31–13 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 0:55, TEN +11% win probability on one snap. Played in 18 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
Win probability
(:55) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep middle to 9-K.Boutte for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Highest-leverage plays
- Q2 · 0:55TEN +11% win prob(:55) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep middle to 9-K.Boutte for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
- Q2 · 1:53TEN +9% win prob(1:53) 6-J.Slye 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker.
- Q2 · 4:07TEN +7% win prob(4:07) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short middle to 11-V.Jefferson to NE 42 for 15 yards (0-C.Gonzalez).
- Q2 · 8:52TEN +6% win prob(8:52) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 9-K.Boutte pushed ob at TEN 33 for 16 yards (21-R.McCreary).
How the points landed
Scoring summary
- Q1 · 12:24TEN Field goal
(12:24) 6-J.Slye 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker.
Score after this play: NE 0 — TEN 3 - Q1 · 6:50NE Field goal
(6:50) 36-A.Borregales 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer.
Score after this play: NE 3 — TEN 3 - Q1 · 5:11TEN Touchdown
(5:11) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass deep left to 17-C.Dike for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NE 3 — TEN 10 - Q2 · 5:38NE Touchdown
(5:38) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 81-A.Hooper for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NE 10 — TEN 10 - Q2 · 1:53TEN Field goal
(1:53) 6-J.Slye 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker.
Score after this play: NE 10 — TEN 13 - Q2 · 0:55NE Touchdown
(:55) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep middle to 9-K.Boutte for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NE 17 — TEN 13 - Q3 · 7:34NE Touchdown
(7:34) (Shotgun) 38-R.Stevenson right end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NE 24 — TEN 13 - Q3 · 7:25NE Touchdown
(7:25) 1-C.Ward sacked at TEN 10 for -13 yards. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by NE-44-K.Chaisson at TEN 4. 44-K.Chaisson for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on TEN-17-C.Dike, Offensive Holding, declined. (kick good)
Score after this play: NE 31 — TEN 13
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
| Metric | Patriots | Titans |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 62 | 51 |
| Total yards | 389 (edge) | 255 |
| Yards per play | 6.3 (edge) | 5.0 |
| Expected points added / play | 0.27 (edge) | -0.28 |
| Success rate | 48% (edge) | 41% |
| Dropback rate | 58% | 76% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.41 (edge) | -0.30 |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.07 (edge) | -0.23 |
| Third downs | 5/12 (edge) | 3/10 |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 9 (edge) | 2 |
| First downs gained on snaps | 22 (edge) | 15 |
| Sacks taken | 4 (edge) | 5 |
| Turnovers | 0 (edge) | 2 |
Patriots won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.27 expected points added per play vs -0.28.
Who moved the needle
Top performers
Passing · TEN
Cam WardQB
25/34, 255 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
-11.7 expected points added · +6.7% completion over expected
Passing · NE
21/23, 222 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
9.7 expected points added · +24.8% completion over expected
Possession by possession
Drive chart
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TEN | TEN 35 | 7 | 34 | 2:40 | Field goal +3 | |
| 2 | NE | NE 35 | 11 | 47 | 5:34 | Field goal +3 | |
| 3 | TEN | TEN 41 | 5 | 59 | 1:42 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 4 | NE | NE 24 | 7 | 22 | 2:57 | Punt | |
| 5 | TEN | TEN 26 | 9 | 39 | 4:51 | Punt | |
| 6 | NE | NE 7 | 12 | 93 | 6:42 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 7 | TEN | TEN 36 | 9 | 37 | 3:46 | Field goal +3 | |
| 8 | NE | NE 40 | 5 | 60 | 0:59 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 9 | TEN | TEN 35 | 5 | 7 | 0:49 | Turnover on downs | |
| 10 | NE | NE 12 | 14 | 88 | 7:29 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 11 | TEN | TEN 23 | 2 | -19 | 0:11 | Defensive touchdown | |
| 12 | TEN | TEN 35 | 5 | -1 | 1:59 | Punt | |
| 13 | NE | NE 35 | 4 | -4 | 2:16 | Punt | |
| 14 | TEN | TEN 23 | 5 | 17 | 2:08 | Punt | |
| 15 | NE | NE 7 | 13 | 56 | 7:11 | Punt | |
| 16 | TEN | TEN 15 | 8 | 39 | 2:59 | Turnover on downs | |
| 17 | NE | NE 35 | 4 | 11 | 0:27 | Punt | |
| 18 | TEN | TEN 25 | 8 | 43 | 1:43 | Interception | |
| 19 | NE | TEN 43 | 6 | 16 | 3:37 | End of game |
7 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Patriots gained 93 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a touchdown.
Full stat lines
Box score
New England Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Maye | 21/23 | 222 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 9.7 |
| Joshua Dobbs | 1/1 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 |
Rushing
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 18 | 88 | 4.9 | 1 | 1.9 |
| Drake Maye | 8 | 62 | 7.8 | 0 | 3.4 |
| Terrell Jennings | 5 | 18 | 3.6 | 0 | 0.6 |
| TreVeyon Henderson | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 | -0.6 |
| Mack Hollins | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 | -0.2 |
| Joshua Dobbs | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 | -1.8 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefon Diggs | 7 | 7 | 69 | 0 | 29% | 4.3 |
| Kayshon Boutte | 2 | 2 | 55 | 1 | 8% | 6.0 |
| Mack Hollins | 2 | 2 | 49 | 0 | 8% | 3.7 |
| Hunter Henry | 4 | 5 | 33 | 0 | 21% | 1.0 |
| DeMario Douglas | 3 | 3 | 17 | 0 | 13% | 3.6 |
| Austin Hooper | 2 | 2 | 11 | 1 | 8% | 1.6 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8% | -1.6 |
| Kyle Williams | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | -1.5 |
Defense (top contributors)
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marte Mapu | 6 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Christian Gonzalez | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Milton Williams | 3 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jahlani Tavai | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Carlton Davis III | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marcus Jones | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Harold Landry III | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| K'Lavon Chaisson | 2 | 1 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Elliss | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kyle Dugger | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
Tennessee Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Ward | 25/34 | 255 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -11.7 |
Rushing
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyjae Spears | 5 | 22 | 4.4 | 0 | -0.4 |
| Tony Pollard | 6 | 18 | 3.0 | 0 | -1.6 |
| Chimere Dike | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 | -0.8 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chimere Dike | 4 | 4 | 70 | 1 | 13% | 6.6 |
| Tony Pollard | 6 | 6 | 43 | 0 | 19% | 1.8 |
| Van Jefferson | 4 | 4 | 41 | 0 | 13% | 3.6 |
| Gunnar Helm | 4 | 5 | 36 | 0 | 16% | 2.0 |
| Elic Ayomanor | 2 | 5 | 29 | 0 | 16% | -1.1 |
| Tyjae Spears | 3 | 4 | 18 | 0 | 13% | -2.0 |
| Tyler Lockett | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 | 6% | 0.7 |
| Chig Okonkwo | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6% | -5.7 |
Defense (top contributors)
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cedric Gray | 7 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Quandre Diggs | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Roger McCreary | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| T'Vondre Sweat | 2 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Amani Hooker | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalyn Armour-Davis | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sebastian Joseph-Day | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Xavier Woods | 1 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jihad Ward | 3 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cody Barton | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
Closing number vs result
Betting context
- Closing spread
- NE -6.5
- Closing total
- 40.5
- NE moneyline
- -290
- TEN moneyline
- +235
Patriots closed -6.5 and covered, winning by 18.
Total closed 40.5; the game landed 44 — over by 3.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
- Venue
- Nissan Stadium
- Roof / surface
- outdoors · grass
- Kickoff weather
- 60°F, wind 18 mph
- Referee
- Craig Wrolstad
- Rest
- NE 7 days · TEN 7 days
- Coaches
- Mike Vrabel vs Brian Callahan
Wind at 18 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.