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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:22 AM ET · 16 to play
New England Patriots 31 at Tennessee Titans 13. Final.
Patriots -6.5 ✓O 40.5 ✓
The verdict · 2025 Week 7
New England Patriots 31, Titans 13 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q2 0:55, 1st and 10, on Kayshon Boutte — 11.0 win-probability points to the Patriots on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 0:55 · 1st and 10
Kayshon Boutte
Patriots
(:55) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep middle to 9-K.Boutte for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
16.9 mph wind
Patriots closed -6.5 and covered, winning by 18.
New England Patriots 31–13 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 0:55, Patriots +11.0% win probability on one snap. Played in 16.9 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
11.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Van JeffersonTitansQ2 4:07(4:07) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short middle to 11-V.Jefferson to NE 42 for 15 yards (0-C.Gonzalez).
6.5pts
Joey SlyeTitansQ2 1:53(1:53) 6-J.Slye 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker.
8.8pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Patriots won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Titans at 2 chunk plays.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Patriots won this one — +0.27 expected points per snap, against Titans at -0.28 expected points per snap.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Patriots won this one — +0.41 expected points per dropback, against Titans at -0.30 expected points per dropback.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Patriots won this one — 2 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Titans at 0 touchdowns on 1 trip.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 14.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 32 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Titans.
MarketModelmodel higher on Titanshigher on Patriots148 of 154 plays carry both curves
(:55) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep middle to 9-K.Boutte for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −11.0 for TitansExpected points −4.19 for TitansThe model had Titans 19 points higher than the market did.play 68
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 0:55TEN +11% win prob(:55) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep middle to 9-K.Boutte for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 1:53TEN +9% win prob(1:53) 6-J.Slye 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker.
2nd · 4:07TEN +7% win prob(4:07) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short middle to 11-V.Jefferson to NE 42 for 15 yards (0-C.Gonzalez).
2nd · 8:52TEN +6% win prob(8:52) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 9-K.Boutte pushed ob at TEN 33 for 16 yards (21-R.McCreary).
3rd · 13:51TEN +6% win prob(13:51) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep middle to 8-S.Diggs to NE 38 for 24 yards (25-X.Woods; 21-R.McCreary).
1st · 6:50NE +6% win prob(6:50) 36-A.Borregales 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer.
2nd · 7:34
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Kayshon Boutte's 39-yard touchdown catch with 0:55 left in the 2nd put New England Patriots ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
Lead
1st12:24Joey Slye·49-yd field goal49-yard field goalholder J.Hekker · snap M.Cox+30–3
1st6:50Andy Borregales·36-yd field goal36-yard field goalholder B.Baringer · snap J.Ashby+33–3
Patriots ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.41 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.27Patriots: +0.27 expected points added per play
−0.28Titans: −0.28 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.41Patriots: +0.41 expected points added per play
−0.30Titans: −0.30 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.07Patriots: +0.07 expected points added per play
−0.23Titans: −0.23 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Patriots ran 62 snaps at a 58% dropback rate against Titans’s 51 at 76%. Red-zone trips: Patriots 4, Titans 1.
NotePatriots won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.27 expected points added per play vs -0.28.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 7Against their seasonOver Expected
TEN's pass rate over expected, +5.0 pts, is past their previous high of +1.6 pts in week 3 — the highest of their 7 charted games through week 7.
51 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.4 points.
TEN's sack or hit rate turned over: 28.0% in week 6 against 13.9% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
36 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.9 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 17 pts
right on their number · −0.1 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (−0.02× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Titans13.9%
right on their number · −2.0 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±5.9 week to week (−0.34× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
NoteTEN's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 5.0 pts, 8.9 points above their season mean of -3.9 pts and 1.6 times their own 5.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New England Patriots
48 dressed · 6 inactive
65Garrett BradburyC · Every snap100%65 snaps
58Jared WilsonG · Full-time97%63 snaps
71Mike OnwenuG · Full-time94%61 snaps
76Morgan MosesT · Full-time91%59 snaps
66Will CampbellT · Full-time91%59 snaps
10Drake MayeQB · Full-time85%55 snaps
38Rhamondre StevensonRB · Heavy rotation75%49 snaps
9Kayshon BoutteWR · Heavy rotation71%46 snaps
85Hunter HenryTE · Heavy rotation68%44 snaps
13Mack HollinsWR · Heavy rotation66%43 snaps
8Stefon DiggsWR · Heavy rotation54%35 snaps
81Austin HooperTE · Heavy rotation51%33 snaps
37Jack WestoverFB · Rotational31%20 snaps
3DeMario DouglasWR · Situational23%15 snaps
18Kyle WilliamsWR · Situational18%12 snaps
86Efton Chism IIIWR · Situational15%10 snaps
11Joshua DobbsQB · Situational15%10 snaps
26Terrell JenningsRB · Situational14%9 snaps
32TreVeyon HendersonRB · Situational14%9 snaps
52Marcus BryantT · Situational9%6 snaps
77Ben BrownC · Situational9%6 snaps
59Vederian LoweT · Situational9%6 snaps
Inactive · 6
Charles WoodsCBEric GregoryDTJaylinn HawkinsFSCaedan WallaceGAnfernee JenningsOLBTommy DeVitoQB
Tennessee Titans
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
1Cam WardQB · Every snap100%53 snaps
70Kevin ZeitlerG · Every snap100%53 snaps
77Peter SkoronskiG · Every snap100%53 snaps
55JC LathamT · Every snap100%53 snaps
75Dan Moore Jr.T · Every snap100%53 snaps
79Lloyd Cushenberry IIIC · Every snap100%53 snaps
5Elic AyomanorWR · Full-time96%51 snaps
11Van JeffersonWR · Full-time85%45 snaps
85Chig OkonkwoTE · Heavy rotation60%32 snaps
17Chimere DikeWR · Heavy rotation57%30 snaps
20Tony PollardRB · Heavy rotation57%30 snaps
84Gunnar HelmTE · Heavy rotation53%28 snaps
2Tyjae SpearsRB · Rotational43%23 snaps
4Tyler LockettWR · Rotational26%14 snaps
88David Martin-RobinsonTE · Situational11%6 snaps
12Mason KinseyWR · Situational8%4 snaps
62Corey LevinC · Situational4%2 snaps
Inactive · 7
Samuel WomackCBC.J. RavenellDTBlake HanceGArden KeyOLBBrandon Crenshaw-DicksonTBryce OliverWRCalvin RidleyWR
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Titans attack right, the Patriots attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Patriots←Titans→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Maye pass+13% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(:55) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep middle to 9-K.Boutte for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 0:55 · Patriots · 1st & 10 at TEN 39 · gained 39 · +4.19 EP · +12.6% win probability
146 snaps placed · 8 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 154 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 146 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 149. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was NE moving 93 yards from the NE 7 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TEN attacks right, NE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
154 of 154 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
154
EPA per play
+0.03
Success rate
46%
Yards
642
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Titans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR40-0.3283%
Patriots1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR35+0.4654%
Patriots2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR17-0.2018%
Patriots1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8+0.5063%
Titans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7+0.2943%
Patriots2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Titans1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Titans1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
snapsepapass rate
154 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
154 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter36 plays
Patriots0Titans3
Field goal7 plays, from the Titans 35 to the Patriots 31
Patriots3Titans3
Field goal11 plays, from the Patriots 35 to the Titans 12
Patriots3Titans9
Patriots3Titans10
Touchdown5 plays, from the Titans 41 to the Patriots 38
Punt7 plays, from the Patriots 24 to the Patriots 46
The period ended5 plays, from the Titans 26 to the Titans 39
2nd quarter39 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Titans 48 to the Patriots 43
Patriots9Titans10
Patriots10Titans10
Touchdown12 plays, from the Patriots 7 to the Titans 3
Patriots10Titans13
Field goal10 plays, from the Titans 36 to the Patriots 27
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the receiver created it himself.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.2 seconds
Patriots16Titans13
Patriots17Titans13
Touchdown5 plays, from the Patriots 40 to the Titans 39
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Titans 35 to the Titans 42
3rd quarter35 plays
Patriots23Titans13
Patriots24Titans13
Touchdown14 plays, from the Patriots 12 to the Titans 4
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Patriots30Titans13
Touchdown2 plays
Patriots31Titans13
Punt5 plays, from the Titans 35 to the Titans 44
Punt5 plays, from the Patriots 35 to the Patriots 38
Punt5 plays, from the Titans 23 to the Titans 41
The period ended3 plays, from the Patriots 7 to the Patriots 25
4th quarter44 plays
Punt11 plays, from the Patriots 29 to the Titans 35
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Titans 15 to the Patriots 39
The period ended8 plays, from the Patriots 35 to the Patriots 41
Intercepted8 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Patriots 32
The period ended8 plays, from the Titans 43 to the Titans 32
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Patriots -6.5
Closing total
40.5
Patriots moneyline
-290
Titans moneyline
+235
Patriots closed -6.5 and covered, winning by 18.
Total closed 40.5; the game landed 44 — over by 3.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Nissan Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Mild, 60°F at kickoff; windy at 17 mph out of the west; 0.03 in of precipitation; light drizzle.
Referee
Craig Wrolstad
Rest
Patriots 7 days · Titans 7 days
Coaches
Mike Vrabel vs Brian Callahan
NoteWind at 16.9 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.
TEN +5% win prob
(7:34) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep right to 13-M.Hollins ran ob at TEN 9 for 22 yards.
3rd · 7:25NE +5% win prob(7:25) 1-C.Ward sacked at TEN 10 for -13 yards. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by NE-44-K.Chaisson at TEN 4. 44-K.Chaisson for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on TEN-17-C.Dike, Offensive Holding, declined.
