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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:25 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2025 Week 7 · Sun, Oct 19, 2025 · Nissan Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2025 Week 7
It turned at Q2 0:55, 1st and 10, on Kayshon Boutte — 11.0 win-probability points to the Patriots on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
New England Patriots 31–13 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 0:55, Patriots +11.0% win probability on one snap. Played in 16.9 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 0:55 · 1st and 10
Kayshon Boutte
Patriots
(:55) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep middle to 9-K.Boutte for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
11.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Explosive plays
Patriots won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Titans at 2 chunk plays.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Patriots won this one — +0.27 expected points per snap, against Titans at -0.28 expected points per snap.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Patriots won this one — +0.41 expected points per dropback, against Titans at -0.30 expected points per dropback.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Patriots won this one — 2 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Titans at 0 touchdowns on 1 trip.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 14.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 32 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Titans.
(:55) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep middle to 9-K.Boutte for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Kayshon Boutte's 39-yard touchdown catch with 0:55 left in the 2nd put New England Patriots ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
Kayshon Boutte39-yd TD catch39-yard touchdown catchfrom Drake MayeLead never changed again+717–138 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Patriotscategory by categoryTitans
Patriots ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.41 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Patriots ran 62 snaps at a 58% dropback rate against Titans’s 51 at 76%. Red-zone trips: Patriots 4, Titans 1.
Patriots won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.27 expected points added per play vs -0.28.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
2 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
TEN's pass rate over expected, +5.0 pts, is past their previous high of +1.6 pts in week 3 — the highest of their 7 charted games through week 7.
51 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.4 points. · +1.6σ from their own normal
TEN's sack or hit rate turned over: 28.0% in week 6 against 13.9% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
36 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.9 points. · −0.3σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 17 pts
Over Expected room →Patriots2.8 ptsright on their number · +0.8 vs their 2.0 pts, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (+0.14× that swing) · 62 snaps
Titans5.0 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +8.9 vs their -3.9 pts, and they swing ±5.4 week to week (+1.64× that swing) · 51 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 30% to 86%
Tendencies room →Patriots50.0%right on their number · −4.2 vs their 54.2%, and they swing ±9.2 week to week (−0.45× that swing) · 48 early downs
Titans69.2%inside their normal wobble · +10.0 vs their 59.3%, and they swing ±10.4 week to week (+0.96× that swing) · 39 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 48%
Tendencies room →Patriots27.8%right on their number · +2.9 vs their 24.9%, and they swing ±8.9 week to week (+0.32× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Titans17.9%right on their number · −1.2 vs their 19.1%, and they swing ±8.1 week to week (−0.15× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -42% to 128%
Fourth Down room →Patriots66.7%inside their normal wobble · +23.7 vs their 43.0%, and they swing ±33.5 week to week (+0.71× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
Titans—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 35.2%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -0% to 57%
Tendencies room →Patriots25.6%right on their number · −2.6 vs their 28.2%, and they swing ±11.1 week to week (−0.23× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Titans33.3%inside their normal wobble · +7.8 vs their 25.5%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (+0.91× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -0% to 31%
Tendencies room →Patriots15.4%right on their number · −0.1 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (−0.02× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Titans13.9%right on their number · −2.0 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±5.9 week to week (−0.34× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
TEN's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 5.0 pts, 8.9 points above their season mean of -3.9 pts and 1.6 times their own 5.4-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New England Patriots
48 dressed · 6 inactive
Inactive · 6
Tennessee Titans
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · TEN
Cam WardQB
25/34, 255 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
-11.7 expected points added · +6.7% completion over expected
Passing · NE
21/23, 222 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
9.7 expected points added · +24.8% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Chimere Dike banked 9.9 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake MayeQB · Starter QB | 23.1 | +5.7 | 85% | — | 0% | — | 21/23, 222 yd, 2 TD · 8 car, 62 yd |
| Chimere DikeWR · Rotational Receiver | 16.9 | +9.9 | 57% | 67% | 13% | 28% | 1 car, -1 yd · 4/4, 70 yd, 1 TD |
| Rhamondre StevensonRB · Committee Back | 16.8 | +3.3 | 75% | 86% | 8% | 0% | 18 car, 88 yd, 1 TD · 2/2, 0 yd |
| Stefon DiggsWR · Alpha Receiver | 13.9 | +3.5 | 54% | 75% | 29% | 25% | 7/7, 69 yd |
| Kayshon BoutteWR · Rotational Receiver | 13.5 | +9.5 | 71% | 75% | 8% | 27% | 2/2, 55 yd, 1 TD |
| Tony PollardRB · Committee Back | 12.1 | +1.1 | 57% | 59% | 19% | 4% | 6 car, 18 yd · 6/6, 43 yd |
| Cam WardQB · Starter QB | 10.2 | +1.1 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 25/34, 255 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT |
| Austin HooperTE · Rotational Receiver | 9.1 | +4.1 | 51% | 31% | 8% | 5% | 2/2, 11 yd, 1 TD |
| Van JeffersonWR · Rotational Receiver | 8.1 | +2.5 | 85% | 82% | 13% | 7% | 4/4, 41 yd |
| Gunnar HelmTE · Rotational Receiver | 7.6 | −0.1 | 53% | 46% | 16% | 21% | 4/5, 36 yd |
| Hunter HenryTE · Featured Receiver | 7.3 | 0.0 | 68% | 89% | 21% | 12% | 4/5, 33 yd |
| Mack HollinsWR · Rotational Receiver | 7.3 | +3.1 | 66% | 58% | 8% | 16% | 1 car, 4 yd · 2/2, 49 yd |
| Tyjae SpearsRB · Committee Back | 7.0 | −0.8 | 43% | 41% | 13% | 3% | 5 car, 22 yd · 3/4, 18 yd |
| Elic AyomanorWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.9 | −2.1 | 96% | 97% | 16% | 18% | 2/5, 29 yd |
| DeMario DouglasWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.7 | −0.8 | 23% | 33% | 13% | 7% | 3/3, 17 yd |
| Tyler LockettWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.8 | +1.0 | 26% | 23% | 6% | 4% | 2/2, 18 yd |
| Terrell JenningsRB | 1.8 | 0.0 | 14% | 3% | 0% | — | 5 car, 18 yd |
| TreVeyon HendersonRB | 0.5 | −0.4 | 14% | 17% | 0% | — | 2 car, 5 yd |
| Joshua DobbsQB | 0.3 | +0.1 | 15% | — | 0% | — | 1/1, 12 yd · 2 car, -2 yd |
| Kyle WilliamsWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.6 | 18% | 17% | 4% | 9% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Efton Chism IIIWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 15% | 8% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Julius ChestnutRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Chig OkonkwoTE | 0.0 | −3.1 | — | — | — | — | No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash. |
| Mason KinseyWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Titans attack right, the Patriots attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(:55) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep middle to 9-K.Boutte for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 0:55 · Patriots · 1st & 10 at TEN 39 · gained 39 · +4.19 EP · +12.6% win probability
146 snaps placed · 8 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 154 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 146 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 149. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
7 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was NE moving 93 yards from the NE 7 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TEN attacks right, NE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
154 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
154 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Patriots0
Titans3Patriots3Titans3Patriots3Titans9Patriots3Titans10Patriots9Titans10Patriots10Titans10Patriots10Titans13How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the receiver created it himself.
Patriots16Titans13Patriots17Titans13Patriots23Titans13Patriots24Titans13How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Patriots30Titans13Patriots31Titans13Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Patriots at Titans, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Maye | 21/23 | 222 | 2 | 0 | 4 | +9.7 |
| Joshua Dobbs | 1/1 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 18 | 88 | 4.9 | 1 | +1.9 |
| Drake Maye | 8 | 62 | 7.8 | 0 | +3.4 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefon Diggs | 7 | 7 | 69 | 0 | 29% | +4.3 |
| Kayshon Boutte | 2 | 2 | 55 | 1 | 8% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marte Mapu | 6 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Christian Gonzalez | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Milton Williams |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Ward | 25/34 | 255 | 1 | 1 | 5 | −11.7 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2025_07_NE_TEN
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Patriots closed -6.5 and covered, winning by 18.
Total closed 40.5; the game landed 44 — over by 3.5.
Conditions and crew
Wind at 16.9 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.
| Terrell Jennings | 5 | 18 | 3.6 | 0 | +0.6 |
| TreVeyon Henderson | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 | −0.6 |
| Mack Hollins | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 | −0.2 |
| Joshua Dobbs | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 | −1.8 |
| +6.0 |
| Mack Hollins | 2 | 2 | 49 | 0 | 8% | +3.7 |
| Hunter Henry | 4 | 5 | 33 | 0 | 21% | +1.0 |
| DeMario Douglas | 3 | 3 | 17 | 0 | 13% | +3.6 |
| Austin Hooper | 2 | 2 | 11 | 1 | 8% | +1.6 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8% | −1.6 |
| Kyle Williams | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −1.5 |
| 3 |
| 2 |
| 1.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Jahlani Tavai | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Carlton Davis III | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| K'Lavon Chaisson | 2 | 1 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Harold Landry III | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Elliss | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marcus Jones | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Elijah Ponder | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyjae Spears | 5 | 22 | 4.4 | 0 | −0.4 |
| Tony Pollard | 6 | 18 | 3.0 | 0 | −1.6 |
| Chimere Dike | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 | −0.8 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chimere Dike | 4 | 4 | 70 | 1 | 13% | +6.6 |
| Tony Pollard | 6 | 6 | 43 | 0 | 19% | +1.8 |
| Van Jefferson | 4 | 4 | 41 | 0 | 13% | +3.6 |
| Gunnar Helm | 4 | 5 | 36 | 0 | 16% | +2.0 |
| Elic Ayomanor | 2 | 5 | 29 | 0 | 16% | −1.1 |
| Tyjae Spears | 3 | 4 | 18 | 0 | 13% | −2.0 |
| Tyler Lockett | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 | 6% | +0.7 |
| Chig Okonkwo | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6% | −5.7 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cedric Gray | 7 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Quandre Diggs | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Amani Hooker | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Roger McCreary | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| T'Vondre Sweat | 2 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cody Barton | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalyn Armour-Davis | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jihad Ward | 3 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Xavier Woods | 1 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sebastian Joseph-Day | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
