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Game Center
2025 Week 7 · Sun, Oct 19, 2025 · Soldier Field
FinalThe verdict · 2025 Week 7
It turned at Q1 13:01, 2nd and 4, on Spencer Rattler — 13.3 win-probability points to the Bears on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Chicago Bears 26–14. Biggest swing: Q1 13:01, Bears +13.3% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 13:01 · 2nd and 4
Spencer Rattler
Bears
(13:01) (Shotgun) 2-S.Rattler sacked at NO 23 for -2 yards (98-M.Sweat). FUMBLES (98-M.Sweat) [98-M.Sweat], RECOVERED by CHI-99-G.Dexter at NO 24.
13.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Explosive plays
Bears won this one — 12 chunk plays, against Saints at 4 chunk plays.
Bearsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Bears won this one — 1 giveaway, against Saints at 4 giveaways.
Bearsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Bears won this one — +0.09 expected points per snap, against Saints at -0.30 expected points per snap.
Bearsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Bears won this one — +0.10 expected points per carry, against Saints at -0.24 expected points per carry.
Bearsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 4.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 12 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Saints.
(13:01) (Shotgun) 2-S.Rattler sacked at NO 23 for -2 yards (98-M.Sweat). FUMBLES (98-M.Sweat) [98-M.Sweat], RECOVERED by CHI-99-G.Dexter at NO 24.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Jake Moody's 27-yard field goal with 9:38 left in the 1st put Chicago Bears ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Jake Moody27-yd field goal27-yard field goalholder T.Taylor · snap S.DalyLead never changed again+30–38 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Saintscategory by categoryBears
Bears ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Saints ran 53 snaps at a 70% dropback rate against Bears’s 65 at 42%. Red-zone trips: Saints 2, Bears 6.
Bears won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.09 expected points added per play vs -0.30.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
CHI's early-down pass rate, 36.5%, is past their previous low of 42.5% in week 3 — the lowest of their 6 charted games through week 7.
52 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.4 points. · −1.9σ from their own normal
CHI's pass rate over expected, −10.9 pts, is past their previous low of −7.4 pts in week 3 — the lowest of their 6 charted games through week 7.
65 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.1 points. · −1.7σ from their own normal
NO's early-down pass rate, 73.2%, is past their previous high of 64.7% in week 1 — the highest of their 7 charted games through week 7.
41 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.7 points. · +1.2σ from their own normal
NO's blitz rate sent, 18.5%, is past their previous low of 23.8% in week 2 — the lowest of their 7 charted games through week 7.
27 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 13.9 points. · −1.0σ from their own normal
CHI's play-action rate turned over: 41.2% in week 6 against 22.2% here — they faked the run then and dropped back clean now, a turn of 2.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
27 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.4 points. · −1.0σ from their own normal
CHI's blitz rate sent turned over: 48.6% in week 6 against 21.6% here — they sent pressure then and sat back now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
37 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.2 points. · −0.7σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 14 pts
Over Expected room →Saints-0.4 ptsright on their number · +3.0 vs their -3.4 pts, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (+0.44× that swing) · 53 snaps
Bears-10.9 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −7.1 vs their -3.9 pts, and they swing ±4.1 week to week (−1.72× that swing) · 65 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 29% to 89%
Tendencies room →Saints73.2%leaned — passed early · +14.3 vs their 58.8%, and they swing ±11.7 week to week (+1.22× that swing) · 41 early downs
Bears36.5%leaned — ran early · −18.0 vs their 54.5%, and they swing ±9.4 week to week (−1.92× that swing) · 52 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -0% to 56%
Tendencies room →Saints13.5%inside their normal wobble · −5.3 vs their 18.8%, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (−0.76× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Bears22.2%inside their normal wobble · −9.4 vs their 31.6%, and they swing ±9.4 week to week (−1.00× that swing) · 27 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -6% to 104%
Fourth Down room →Saints—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 48.8%.
Bears33.3%inside their normal wobble · −11.4 vs their 44.8%, and they swing ±19.2 week to week (−0.60× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 68%
Tendencies room →Saints18.5%leaned — sat back · −14.1 vs their 32.6%, and they swing ±13.9 week to week (−1.02× that swing) · 27 dropbacks
Bears21.6%inside their normal wobble · −8.2 vs their 29.9%, and they swing ±11.2 week to week (−0.73× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 34%
Tendencies room →Saints14.8%right on their number · +0.5 vs their 14.3%, and they swing ±5.1 week to week (+0.09× that swing) · 27 dropbacks
Bears18.9%inside their normal wobble · +5.9 vs their 13.0%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (+0.74× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
CHI's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 36.5%, 18.0 points below their season mean of 54.5% and 1.9 times their own 9.4-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New Orleans Saints
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Chicago Bears
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · NO
20/32, 233 yds, 2 TD, 3 INT
-12.2 expected points added · +0.4% completion over expected
Passing · CHI
15/26, 172 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT
2.1 expected points added · -3.2% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Chris Olave banked 14.4 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris OlaveWR · Featured Receiver | 26.8 | +14.4 | 84% | 84% | 23% | 38% | 5/7, 98 yd, 2 TD |
| D'Andre SwiftRB · Committee Back | 20.8 | +6.1 | 54% | 59% | 4% | 0% | 19 car, 124 yd, 1 TD · 1/1, 14 yd |
| Kyle MonangaiRB · Committee Back | 17.4 | +2.6 | 45% | 41% | 12% | 1% | 13 car, 81 yd, 1 TD · 2/3, 13 yd |
| Juwan JohnsonTE · Featured Receiver | 12.9 | +2.0 | 71% | 86% | 23% | 16% | 5/7, 79 yd |
| Spencer RattlerQB · Starter QB | 10.5 | −2.5 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 20/32, 233 yd, 2 TD, 3 INT · 2 car, 12 yd |
| DJ MooreWR · Featured Receiver | 8.2 | −1.4 | 87% | 93% | 20% | 16% | 1 car, 9 yd · 3/5, 43 yd |
| Rashid ShaheedWR · Alpha Receiver | 8.0 | −4.5 | 77% | 86% | 29% | 37% | 4/9, 40 yd |
| Alvin KamaraRB · Bell Cow Back | 5.9 | −3.8 | 84% | 89% | 10% | 0% | 11 car, 28 yd · 3/3, 1 yd |
| Colston LovelandTE · Rotational Receiver | 5.4 | −1.1 | 67% | 63% | 16% | 13% | 3/4, 24 yd |
| Rome OdunzeWR · Featured Receiver | 5.1 | −3.7 | 94% | 100% | 24% | 41% | 2/6, 31 yd |
| Caleb WilliamsQB · Starter QB | 4.7 | −6.6 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 15/26, 172 yd, 1 INT · 4 car, -2 yd |
| Luther Burden IIIWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.1 | −1.9 | 28% | 33% | 8% | 20% | 1 car, -1 yd · 1/2, 22 yd |
| Olamide ZaccheausWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.9 | −3.1 | 52% | 63% | 12% | 7% | 1 car, 0 yd · 2/3, 9 yd |
| Taysom HillQB | 2.8 | −1.3 | 16% | — | 6% | 2% | 2 car, -4 yd · 2/2, 12 yd |
| Cole KmetTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.6 | +0.6 | 41% | 30% | 4% | 8% | 1/1, 16 yd |
| Brandin CooksWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.3 | 0.0 | 70% | 68% | 3% | 1% | 1/1, 3 yd |
| Roschon JohnsonRB | 1.1 | +0.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| Kendre MillerRB | 0.7 | +0.2 | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Devin NealRB | 0.1 | −0.4 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Travis HomerRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Devin DuvernayWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Jack StollTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.5 | 21% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Mason TiptonWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.7 | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
6 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bears attack right, the Saints attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(13:01) (Shotgun) 2-S.Rattler sacked at NO 23 for -2 yards (98-M.Sweat). FUMBLES (98-M.Sweat) [98-M.Sweat], RECOVERED by CHI-99-G.Dexter at NO 24.
Q1 13:01 · Saints · 2nd & 4 at NO 25 · lost 1 · -5.57 EP · −14.5% win probability
156 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 168 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 156 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 163. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
8 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was NO moving 91 yards from the NO 9 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CHI attacks right, NO attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
168 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
168 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
A man in motion.
From outside the pocket.
Saints0
Bears3Saints0Bears6Saints0Bears12Saints0Bears13Saints0Bears19Saints0Bears20Saints6Bears20Saints7Bears20Saints13Bears20Saints14Bears20Saints14Bears23Saints14Bears26Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Saints at Bears, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Rattler | 20/32 | 233 | 2 | 3 | 4 | −12.2 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara | 11 | 28 | 2.5 | 0 | −4.6 |
| Spencer Rattler | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 | +1.6 |
| Kendre Miller |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Olave | 5 | 7 | 98 | 2 | 23% | +8.5 |
| Juwan Johnson | 5 | 7 | 79 | 0 | 23% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demario Davis | 6 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Alontae Taylor | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Danny Stutsman |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Williams | 15/26 | 172 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +2.1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2025_07_NO_CHI
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Bears closed -4.5 and covered, winning by 12.
Total closed 43.5; the game landed 40 — under by 3.5.
Conditions and crew
| 1 |
| 7 |
| 7.0 |
| 0 |
| +0.2 |
| Devin Neal | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | −0.4 |
| Taysom Hill | 2 | -4 | -2.0 | 0 | −0.2 |
| +4.0 |
| Rashid Shaheed | 4 | 9 | 40 | 0 | 29% | −4.6 |
| Taysom Hill | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 6% | −0.5 |
| Brandin Cooks | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3% | −0.1 |
| Alvin Kamara | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10% | −0.4 |
| Jack Stoll | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −3.6 |
| Mason Tipton | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −5.4 |
| 1 |
| 5 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Justin Reid | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Kool-Aid McKinstry | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jonas Sanker | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bryan Bresee | 1 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Carl Granderson | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chase Young | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | 2 |
| Jaylan Ford | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| D'Andre Swift | 19 | 124 | 6.5 | 1 | +4.5 |
| Kyle Monangai | 13 | 81 | 6.2 | 1 | +1.9 |
| Roschon Johnson | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 | +1.0 |
| DJ Moore | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 | +0.7 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | −0.7 |
| Luther Burden III | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 | −0.8 |
| Caleb Williams | 4 | -2 | -0.5 | 0 | −6.2 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJ Moore | 3 | 5 | 43 | 0 | 20% | −0.1 |
| Rome Odunze | 2 | 6 | 31 | 0 | 24% | +0.3 |
| Colston Loveland | 3 | 4 | 24 | 0 | 16% | +3.5 |
| Luther Burden III | 1 | 2 | 22 | 0 | 8% | +0.8 |
| Cole Kmet | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 | 4% | +1.2 |
| D'Andre Swift | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 | 4% | +1.0 |
| Kyle Monangai | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 | 12% | +0.0 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 12% | −1.4 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tremaine Edmunds | 6 | 3 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 |
| T.J. Edwards | 6 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Jaquan Brisker | 4 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kyler Gordon | 4 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyrique Stevenson | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Montez Sweat | 3 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nahshon Wright | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Andrew Billings | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Carl Jones | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kevin Byard | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
