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2025 Week 7 · Sun, Oct 19, 2025 · Soldier Field

New Orleans Saints

14

Chicago BearsWinner

26

CHI -4.5 ✓U 43.5 ✓

Chicago Bears 26–14. Biggest swing: Q1 13:01, NO +13% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3CHI ↑NO ↓
Q1 · 13:01NO 0 — CHI 0NO ball · 2nd & 4CHI 60%

(13:01) (Shotgun) 2-S.Rattler sacked at NO 23 for -2 yards (98-M.Sweat). FUMBLES (98-M.Sweat) [98-M.Sweat], RECOVERED by CHI-99-G.Dexter at NO 24.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q1 · 13:01NO +13% win prob(13:01) (Shotgun) 2-S.Rattler sacked at NO 23 for -2 yards (98-M.Sweat). FUMBLES (98-M.Sweat) [98-M.Sweat], RECOVERED by CHI-99-G.Dexter at NO 24.
  2. Q1 · 3:00NO +10% win prob(3:00) 19-B.Grupe 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger.
  3. Q2 · 11:20NO +8% win prob(11:20) (Shotgun) 2-S.Rattler pass short middle intended for 15-M.Tipton INTERCEPTED by 26-N.Wright at CHI 32. 26-N.Wright ran ob at NO 30 for 38 yards (2-S.Rattler).
  4. Q3 · 9:47CHI +6% win prob(9:47) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-S.Rattler pass short left to 12-C.Olave for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 9:38CHI Field goal

    (9:38) 16-J.Moody 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.

    Score after this play: NO 0 — CHI 3
  2. Q2 · 14:10CHI Field goal

    (14:10) 16-J.Moody 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.

    Score after this play: NO 0 — CHI 6
  3. Q2 · 9:10CHI Touchdown

    (9:10) 4-D.Swift right guard for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: NO 0 — CHI 13
  4. Q2 · 2:53CHI Touchdown

    (2:53) (Shotgun) 25-K.Monangai right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: NO 0 — CHI 20
  5. Q2 · 0:27NO Touchdown

    (:27) (Shotgun) 2-S.Rattler pass deep middle to 12-C.Olave for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: NO 7 — CHI 20
  6. Q3 · 9:47NO Touchdown

    (9:47) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-S.Rattler pass short left to 12-C.Olave for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: NO 14 — CHI 20
  7. Q3 · 4:10CHI Field goal

    (4:10) 16-J.Moody 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.

    Score after this play: NO 14 — CHI 23
  8. Q4 · 6:26CHI Field goal

    (6:26) 16-J.Moody 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.

    Score after this play: NO 14 — CHI 26

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricSaintsBears
Offensive plays5365
Total yards253388 (edge)
Yards per play4.86.0 (edge)
Expected points added / play-0.300.09 (edge)
Success rate40%45% (edge)
Dropback rate70%42%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.320.08 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.240.10 (edge)
Third downs3/10 (edge)3/12
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)412 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps1223 (edge)
Sacks taken41 (edge)
Turnovers41 (edge)

Bears won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.09 expected points added per play vs -0.30.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NO

Spencer RattlerQB

20/32, 233 yds, 2 TD, 3 INT

-12.2 expected points added · +0.4% completion over expected

Passing · CHI

Caleb WilliamsQB

15/26, 172 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

2.1 expected points added · -3.2% completion over expected

Rushing · CHI

D'Andre SwiftRB

19 att, 124 yds, 1 TD

4.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CHI

Kyle MonangaiRB

13 att, 81 yds, 1 TD

1.9 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NO

Chris OlaveWR

5/7 for 98 yds, 2 TD

23% of team targets · 8.5 expected points added

Receiving · NO

Juwan JohnsonTE

5/7 for 79 yds, 0 TD

23% of team targets · 4.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1CHICHI 355111:25Punt
2NONO 19250:40Fumble
3CHINO 246203:21Field goal +3
4NONO 33541:36Punt
5CHICHI 244191:50Interception
6NOCHI 487183:13Missed field goal
7CHICHI 449353:49Field goal +3
8NONO 356-123:00Interception
9CHINO 305302:01Touchdown +7
10NONO 355-111:39Punt
11CHICHI 459604:35Touchdown +7
12NONO 33691:13Turnover on downs
13CHICHI 43460:30Punt
14NONO 96910:46Touchdown +7
15CHICHI 273100:22End of half
16NONO 2012755:20Touchdown +7
17CHICHI 289715:33Field goal +3
18NONO 274131:32Interception
19CHICHI 128204:15Punt
20NONO 216112:40Punt
21CHICHI 348564:18Field goal +3
22NONO 247502:02Interception
23CHICHI 329504:20End of game

8 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Saints gained 91 scrimmage yards over 6 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

New Orleans Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Spencer Rattler20/32233234-12.2

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Alvin Kamara11282.50-4.6
Spencer Rattler2126.001.6
Kendre Miller177.000.2
Devin Neal111.00-0.4
Taysom Hill2-4-2.00-0.2

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Chris Olave5798223%8.5
Juwan Johnson5779023%4.0
Rashid Shaheed4940029%-4.6
Taysom Hill221206%-0.5
Brandin Cooks11303%-0.1
Alvin Kamara331010%-0.4
Jack Stoll01003%-3.6
Mason Tipton01003%-5.4

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Demario Davis640.000
Alontae Taylor430.000
Justin Reid420.001
Danny Stutsman150.000
Jonas Sanker320.000
Kool-Aid McKinstry500.001
Bryan Bresee130.500
Chase Young210.502
Carl Granderson210.000
Quincy Riley300.011

Chicago Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Caleb Williams15/261720112.1

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
D'Andre Swift191246.514.5
Kyle Monangai13816.211.9
Roschon Johnson11111.001.0
DJ Moore199.000.7
Olamide Zaccheaus100.00-0.7
Luther Burden III1-1-1.00-0.8
Caleb Williams4-2-0.50-6.2

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
DJ Moore3543020%-0.1
Rome Odunze2631024%0.3
Colston Loveland3424016%3.5
Luther Burden III122208%0.8
Cole Kmet111604%1.2
D'Andre Swift111404%1.0
Kyle Monangai2313012%0.0
Olamide Zaccheaus239012%-1.4

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Tremaine Edmunds631.011
T.J. Edwards610.002
Jaquan Brisker421.000
Kyler Gordon401.000
Tyrique Stevenson210.001
Montez Sweat301.000
Andrew Billings110.000
Kevin Byard110.012
Carl Jones110.000
Nahshon Wright200.012

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
CHI -4.5
Closing total
43.5
NO moneyline
+185
CHI moneyline
-225

Bears closed -4.5 and covered, winning by 12.

Total closed 43.5; the game landed 40 — under by 3.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Soldier Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
49°F, wind 8 mph
Referee
Scott Novak
Rest
NO 7 days · CHI 6 days
Coaches
Kellen Moore vs Ben Johnson