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2025 Week 7 · Sun, Oct 19, 2025 · Empower Field at Mile High

New York Giants

32

Denver BroncosWinner

33

DEN -7.5 no coverO 39.5 ✓

Denver Broncos 33–32 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:49, DEN +38% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3DEN ↑NYG ↓
Q4 · 0:49NYG 26 — DEN 30NYG ball · 3rd & 10DEN 62%

(:49) (Shotgun) 6-J.Dart pass incomplete deep right to 81-B.Collins. PENALTY on DEN-21-R.Moss, Defensive Pass Interference, 38 yards, enforced at DEN 40 - No Play. PENALTY on DEN, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 1 yard, enforce

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 0:49DEN +38% win prob(:49) (Shotgun) 6-J.Dart pass incomplete deep right to 81-B.Collins. PENALTY on DEN-21-R.Moss, Defensive Pass Interference, 38 yards, enforced at DEN 40 - No Play. PENALTY on DEN, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 1 yard, enforced between downs.
  2. Q4 · 0:02DEN +35% win prob(:02) 3-W.Lutz 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.
  3. Q4 · 1:08DEN +32% win prob(1:08) (Shotgun) 6-J.Dart pass deep left to 17-W.Robinson to NYG 45 for 19 yards (29-J.McMillian). PENALTY on DEN-98-J.Franklin-Myers, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at NYG 45.
  4. Q4 · 2:14DEN +24% win prob(2:14) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass deep right to 19-M.Mims pushed ob at NYG 38 for 31 yards (22-A.Phillips).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 7:03NYG Touchdown

    (7:03) 6-J.Dart pass deep right to 82-D.Bellinger for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: NYG 7 — DEN 0
  2. Q2 · 8:54NYG Touchdown

    (8:54) (Shotgun) 6-J.Dart pass short middle to 44-C.Skattebo for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: NYG 13 — DEN 0
  3. Q3 · 2:47NYG Touchdown

    (2:47) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 29-T.Tracy left guard for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: NYG 19 — DEN 0
  4. Q4 · 14:14DEN Touchdown

    (14:14) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 11-T.Franklin for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)

    Score after this play: NYG 19 — DEN 8
  5. Q4 · 10:22NYG Touchdown

    (10:22) (Shotgun) 6-J.Dart pass short middle to 84-T.Johnson for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: NYG 26 — DEN 8
  6. Q4 · 5:19DEN Touchdown

    (5:19) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-B.Nix right end for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)

    Score after this play: NYG 26 — DEN 16
  7. Q4 · 3:55DEN Touchdown

    (3:55) (No Huddle) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 12-R.Harvey for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: NYG 26 — DEN 23
  8. Q4 · 1:56DEN Touchdown

    (1:56) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix left end for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: NYG 26 — DEN 30
  9. Q4 · 0:40NYG Touchdown

    (:40) (Shotgun) 64-A.Stinnie reported in as eligible. 6-J.Dart up the middle to DEN 1 for no gain (15-N.Bonitto; 49-A.Singleton). The Replay Official reviewed the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 64-A.Stinnie reported in as eligible. 6-J.Dart up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: NYG 32 — DEN 30
  10. Q4 · 0:02DEN Field goal

    (:02) 3-W.Lutz 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.

    Score after this play: NYG 32 — DEN 33

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricGiantsBroncos
Offensive plays7077
Total yards387411 (edge)
Yards per play5.5 (edge)5.3
Expected points added / play0.12 (edge)0.08
Success rate34%40% (edge)
Dropback rate54%70%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.22 (edge)-0.01
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.010.31 (edge)
Third downs6/15 (edge)4/13
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)69 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps2025 (edge)
Sacks taken42 (edge)
Turnovers10 (edge)

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NYG

Jaxson DartQB

15/33, 283 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT

8.4 expected points added · -17.0% completion over expected

Passing · DEN

Bo NixQB

27/50, 279 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

-1.4 expected points added · -10.9% completion over expected

Rushing · DEN

J.K. DobbinsRB

14 att, 81 yds, 0 TD

1.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NYG

Cam SkatteboRB

16 att, 60 yds, 0 TD

-2.8 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NYG

Wan'Dale RobinsonWR

6/12 for 95 yds, 0 TD

36% of team targets · 4.3 expected points added

Receiving · NYG

Daniel BellingerTE

3/4 for 88 yds, 1 TD

12% of team targets · 7.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1NYGNYG 358242:15Punt
2DENDEN 20400:22Punt
3NYGNYG 32481:15Punt
4DENDEN 156212:43Punt
5NYGNYG 235671:31Touchdown +7
6DENDEN 610185:01Punt
7NYGNYG 27410:53Punt
8DENDEN 32441:15Punt
9NYGNYG 1811825:59Touchdown +6
10DENDEN 3514645:11Turnover on downs
11NYGNYG 28212:31Punt
12DENDEN 242-51:04End of half
13DENDEN 277152:17Punt
14NYGNYG 1511305:41Punt
15DENDEN 124-10:58Punt
16NYGNYG 418593:23Touchdown +6
17DENDEN 2210803:33Touchdown +8
18NYGNYG 338723:54Touchdown +7
19DENDEN 2615825:01Touchdown +8
20NYGNYG 30450:26Interception
21DENNYG 195140:56Touchdown +7
22NYGNYG 28521:09Punt
23DENDEN 327680:51Touchdown +7
24NYGNYG 359161:14Touchdown +6
25DENDEN 235510:37Field goal +3

10 of 25 drives ended in points. Longest march: Giants gained 82 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

New York Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Jaxson Dart15/332833148.4

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Cam Skattebo16603.80-2.8
Tyrone Tracy Jr.9465.112.0
Jaxson Dart5112.211.6
Devin Singletary221.00-0.7

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Wan'Dale Robinson61295036%4.3
Daniel Bellinger3488112%7.2
Theo Johnson3766121%1.2
Cam Skattebo3634118%1.5
Beaux Collins01003%-0.3
Lil'Jordan Humphrey02006%-0.9
Jalin Hyatt01003%-0.2

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Dane Belton640.000
Andru Phillips800.000
Bobby Okereke420.000
Darius Muasau330.000
Paulson Adebo400.000
Tyler Nubin310.000
Brian Burns402.001
Cordale Flott120.002
Roy Robertson-Harris030.001
Deonte Banks210.000

Denver Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Bo Nix27/50279202-1.4

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
J.K. Dobbins14815.801.5
Bo Nix5489.628.1
Marvin Mims Jr.11313.001.5
RJ Harvey400.00-2.7

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Courtland Sutton61087020%0.7
Marvin Mims Jr.6785014%3.6
Evan Engram5842016%-0.9
Nate Adkins232006%-0.5
Troy Franklin31019120%-3.2
Tyler Badie221904%2.5
Pat Bryant14608%-1.7
RJ Harvey12214%1.0
Garett Bolles01002%-0.8
Adam Prentice01002%-0.4
J.K. Dobbins11-102%-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Alex Singleton350.000
Dre Greenlaw150.000
Brandon Jones330.001
Malcolm Roach230.500
Justin Strnad230.011
Talanoa Hufanga410.002
Ja'Quan McMillian310.001
Zach Allen130.502
D.J. Jones220.000
John Franklin-Myers210.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
DEN -7.5
Closing total
39.5
NYG moneyline
+330
DEN moneyline
-425

Broncos closed -7.5, won by 1 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 39.5; the game landed 65 — over by 25.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Empower Field at Mile High
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
72°F, wind 3 mph
Referee
Brad Allen
Rest
NYG 10 days · DEN 7 days
Coaches
Brian Daboll vs Sean Payton