For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
2025 Week 7 · Sun, Oct 19, 2025 · Empower Field at Mile High
Final
GiantsNew York32
BY 1final margin
BroncosDenver33
New York Giants 32 at Denver Broncos 33. Final.
Broncos -7.5 no coverO 39.5 ✓
The verdict · 2025 Week 7
Denver Broncos 33, Giants 32 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 0:49, 3rd and 10, on Jaxson Dart — 37.8 win-probability points to the Giants on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:49 · 3rd and 10
Jaxson Dart
Giants
(:49) (Shotgun) 6-J.Dart pass incomplete deep right to 81-B.Collins. PENALTY on DEN-21-R.Moss, Defensive Pass Interference, 38 yards, enforced at DEN 40 - No Play. PENALTY on DEN, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 1 yard, enforced between downs.
Broncos closed -7.5, won by 1 — but didn't cover.
Denver Broncos 33–32 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:49, Giants +37.8% win probability on one snap.
37.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Wan'Dale RobinsonGiantsQ4 1:08(1:08) (Shotgun) 6-J.Dart pass deep left to 17-W.Robinson to NYG 45 for 19 yards (29-J.McMillian). PENALTY on DEN-98-J.Franklin-Myers, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at NYG 45.
32.2pts
Wil LutzBroncosQ4 0:02(:02) 3-W.Lutz 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.
34.8pts
What separated them
Red zone
Broncos won this one — 4 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Giants at 2 touchdowns on 5 trips.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Broncos won this one — +0.31 expected points per carry, against Giants at +0.01 expected points per carry.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Broncos won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Giants at 6 chunk plays.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Broncos won this one — no giveaways, against Giants at 1 giveaway.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 10.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 24 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Giants.
MarketModelmodel higher on Broncoshigher on Giants196 of 209 plays carry both curves
(:49) (Shotgun) 6-J.Dart pass incomplete deep right to 81-B.Collins. PENALTY on DEN-21-R.Moss, Defensive Pass Interference, 38 yards, enforced at DEN 40 - No Play. PENALTY on DEN, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 1 yard, enforce
Swing −37.8 for BroncosExpected points −4.85 for BroncosThe model had Broncos 11 points higher than the market did.play 199
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:49DEN +38% win prob(:49) (Shotgun) 6-J.Dart pass incomplete deep right to 81-B.Collins. PENALTY on DEN-21-R.Moss, Defensive Pass Interference, 38 yards, enforced at DEN 40 - No Play. PENALTY on DEN, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 1 yard, enforced between downs.
4th · 0:02DEN +35% win prob(:02) 3-W.Lutz 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.
4th · 1:08DEN +32% win prob(1:08) (Shotgun) 6-J.Dart pass deep left to 17-W.Robinson to NYG 45 for 19 yards (29-J.McMillian). PENALTY on DEN-98-J.Franklin-Myers, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at NYG 45.
4th · 2:14DEN +24% win prob(2:14) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass deep right to 19-M.Mims pushed ob at NYG 38 for 31 yards (22-A.Phillips).
4th · 0:18DEN +20% win prob(:18) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass deep left to 14-C.Sutton to NYG 21 for 22 yards (2-D.Banks).
4th · 0:18DEN +15% win prob(:18) (No Huddle) PENALTY on NYG-0-B.Burns, Neutral Zone Infraction, 5 yards, enforced at NYG 48 - No Play.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Wil Lutz's 39-yard field goal with 0:02 left in the 4th put Denver Broncos ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
4th0:40Jaxson Dart·1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdownkick no good, wide right+632–30
4th0:02Wil Lutz·39-yd field goal39-yard field goalholder J.Crawshaw · snap M.FraboniLead never changed again+332–33
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Giantscategory by categoryBroncos
Giants2–7Broncos
387Total yards411
5.5Yards per play5.3
34%Success rate40%
40%Third-down rate31%
2Red-zone touchdowns4
6Explosive plays9
20First downs25
4Sacks taken2
1Turnovers0
The read
Broncos ahead 7–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.12Giants: +0.12 expected points added per play
+0.08Broncos: +0.08 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.22Giants: +0.22 expected points added per play
−0.01Broncos: −0.01 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.01Giants: +0.01 expected points added per play
+0.31Broncos: +0.31 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Giants ran 70 snaps at a 54% dropback rate against Broncos’s 77 at 70%. Red-zone trips: Giants 5, Broncos 5.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
DEN's play-action rate turned over: 36.4% in week 6 against 16.7% here — they faked the run then and dropped back clean now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
54 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.3 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -28 pts to 18 pts
inside their normal wobble · −6.6 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (−0.79× that swing) · 54 dropbacks
Broncos21.1%
right on their number · −1.4 vs their 22.5%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (−0.16× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
NoteDEN's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 47.4%, 17.3 points above their season mean of 30.1% and 1.7 times their own 10.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New York Giants
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
74Greg Van RotenG · Every snap100%77 snaps
65Austin SchlottmannC · Every snap100%77 snaps
76Jon RunyanG · Every snap100%77 snaps
78Andrew ThomasT · Every snap100%77 snaps
72Jermaine EluemunorT · Every snap100%77 snaps
6Jaxson DartQB · Every snap100%77 snaps
89Lil'Jordan HumphreyWR · Full-time96%74 snaps
17Wan'Dale RobinsonWR · Full-time91%70 snaps
84Theo JohnsonTE · Full-time88%68 snaps
82Daniel BellingerTE · Heavy rotation68%52 snaps
44Cam SkatteboRB · Heavy rotation60%46 snaps
29Tyrone Tracy Jr.RB · Rotational36%28 snaps
13Jalin HyattWR · Rotational32%25 snaps
85Chris ManhertzTE · Situational10%8 snaps
81Beaux CollinsWR · Situational8%6 snaps
86Thomas Fidone IITE · Situational4%3 snaps
26Devin SingletaryRB · Situational4%3 snaps
80Gunner OlszewskiWR · Situational1%1 snap
64Aaron StinnieG · Situational1%1 snap
Inactive · 7
John Michael SchmitzCChauncey GolstonDEEvan NealGSwayze BozemanILBDemetrius Flannigan-FowlesILBJameis WinstonQBDarius SlaytonWR
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Broncos attack right, the Giants attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Giants←Broncos→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Wil Lutz+42% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:02) 3-W.Lutz 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.
Q4 0:02 · Broncos · 2nd & 10 at NYG 21 · gained nothing · +0.41 EP · +42.3% win probability
194 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 209 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 194 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 204. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was NYG moving 82 yards from the NYG 18 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DEN attacks right, NYG attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
209 of 209 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
209
EPA per play
+0.12
Success rate
40%
Yards
798
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Broncos1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR61+0.1074%
Giants1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR37-0.2357%
Giants1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR27+0.6859%
Broncos1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6+0.3167%
Giants1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR5-0.5020%
Broncos2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Broncos1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Broncos2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Broncos2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Broncos1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Broncos2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Giants1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
209 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
209 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter48 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Giants 35 to the Broncos 41
Punt4 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Giants 32 to the Giants 40
Punt6 plays, from the Broncos 15 to the Broncos 36
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw5.3 seconds
Giants6Broncos0
Giants7Broncos0
Touchdown7 plays, from the Giants 23 to the Broncos 44
Punt11 plays, from the Broncos 6 to the Broncos 32
Punt4 plays, from the Giants 27 to the Giants 28
The period ended3 plays, from the Broncos 32 to the Broncos 37
2nd quarter45 plays
Punt2 plays
Giants13Broncos0
Touchdown13 plays, from the Giants 18 to the Broncos 8
Turnover on downs14 plays, from the Broncos 35 to the Giants 2
Punt12 plays, from the Giants 2 to the Giants 36
The period ended4 plays, from the Broncos 24 to the Broncos 25
3rd quarter40 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Broncos 27 to the Broncos 42
Punt14 plays, from the Giants 15 to the Broncos 34
Punt4 plays
Giants19Broncos0
Touchdown8 plays, from the Giants 41 to the Broncos 31
The period ended7 plays, from the Broncos 22 to the Giants 16
4th quarter76 plays
Giants19Broncos6
Giants19Broncos8
Touchdown4 plays, from the Giants 14 to the Giants 2
Giants25Broncos8
Giants26Broncos8
Touchdown9 plays, from the Giants 33 to the Broncos 33
Giants26Broncos14
Giants26Broncos16
Touchdown18 plays, from the Broncos 26 to the Giants 7
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSevenPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.0 seconds
The period ended6 plays, from the Giants 30 to the Giants 35
Giants26Broncos22
Giants26Broncos23
Touchdown6 plays, from the Giants 19 to the Giants 2
Punt6 plays, from the Giants 28 to the Giants 30
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, five linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
How the play was built
Empty backfield, no huddle, nobody in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, five linebackers and five backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.4 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxFive defenders
Giants26Broncos29
Giants26Broncos30
Touchdown7 plays, from the Broncos 32 to the Giants 18
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runDeep outCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.9 seconds
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back and three tight endsDefense on the fieldFour linemen, four linebackers and three backsIn the boxFive defenders
Giants32Broncos30
Touchdown12 plays, from the Giants 35 to the Broncos 1
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
Giants32Broncos33
Field goal7 plays, from the Broncos 23 to the Giants 21
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Broncos -7.5
Closing total
39.5
Giants moneyline
+330
Broncos moneyline
-425
Broncos closed -7.5, won by 1 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 39.5; the game landed 65 — over by 25.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Empower Field at Mile High
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Mild, 73°F at kickoff; still at 3 mph out of the north-east; overcast.
Referee
Brad Allen
Rest
Giants 10 days · Broncos 7 days
Coaches
Brian Daboll vs Sean Payton
4th · 2:04DEN +13% win prob(2:04) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short left to 1-E.Engram to NYG 18 for 20 yards (24-D.Belton).
4th · 4:56NYG +13% win prob(4:56) (Shotgun) 6-J.Dart pass short middle intended for 84-T.Johnson INTERCEPTED by 40-J.Strnad at NYG 40. 40-J.Strnad to NYG 19 for 21 yards (72-J.Eluemunor).
Giantscategory by categoryBroncos
Giants6
Broncos0
