For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending.mdto those URLs or by sendingAccept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
Not startedThis page's interactive half has not started on this device. Nothing was read, and nothing was invented in its place. Reload the page.
polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:23 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2025 Week 7 · Sun, Oct 19, 2025 · U.S. Bank Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2025 Week 7
It turned at Q2 13:35, 3rd and 5, on Jalyx Hunt — 15.3 win-probability points to the Eagles on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Philadelphia Eagles 28–22. Biggest swing: Q2 13:35, Eagles +15.3% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 13:35 · 3rd and 5
Jalyx Hunt
Eagles
(13:35) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short middle intended for 18-J.Jefferson INTERCEPTED by 58-J.Hunt [98-J.Carter] at MIN 42. 58-J.Hunt for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
15.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Eagles won this one — +0.73 expected points per dropback, against Vikings at +0.04 expected points per dropback.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Eagles won this one — +0.28 expected points per snap, against Vikings at -0.09 expected points per snap.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Eagles won this one — no giveaways, against Vikings at 2 giveaways.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Vikings owned this one and still lost it — 51% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Eagles at 40% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Vikingsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 7.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 17 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Vikings.
(13:35) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short middle intended for 18-J.Jefferson INTERCEPTED by 58-J.Hunt [98-J.Carter] at MIN 42. 58-J.Hunt for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
A.J. Brown's 37-yard touchdown catch with 7:07 left in the 1st put Philadelphia Eagles ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 9 scores that followed.
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Eaglescategory by categoryVikings
Vikings ahead 7–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.73 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Eagles ran 48 snaps at a 54% dropback rate against Vikings’s 67 at 69%. Red-zone trips: Eagles 4, Vikings 6.
Vikings outgained Eagles 387-366 but lost the turnover battle 2-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 20 pts
Over Expected room →Eagles-3.4 ptsright on their number · −1.0 vs their -2.4 pts, and they swing ±8.9 week to week (−0.11× that swing) · 48 snaps
Vikings2.1 ptsinside their normal wobble · +3.5 vs their -1.4 pts, and they swing ±5.3 week to week (+0.65× that swing) · 67 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 20% to 85%
Tendencies room →Eagles50.0%right on their number · −2.9 vs their 52.9%, and they swing ±12.7 week to week (−0.22× that swing) · 36 early downs
Vikings64.7%inside their normal wobble · +10.1 vs their 54.6%, and they swing ±11.0 week to week (+0.91× that swing) · 51 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 48%
Tendencies room →Eagles15.4%inside their normal wobble · −7.0 vs their 22.4%, and they swing ±9.4 week to week (−0.74× that swing) · 26 dropbacks
Vikings26.1%right on their number · +0.1 vs their 26.0%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (+0.01× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -59% to 125%
Fourth Down room →Eagles66.7%inside their normal wobble · +33.8 vs their 32.8%, and they swing ±36.0 week to week (+0.94× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
Vikings—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 27.4%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 2% to 77%
Tendencies room →Eagles19.6%inside their normal wobble · −6.6 vs their 26.2%, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (−0.78× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
Vikings57.7%inside their normal wobble · +5.9 vs their 51.8%, and they swing ±9.0 week to week (+0.66× that swing) · 26 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -1% to 39%
Tendencies room →Eagles17.4%right on their number · +0.8 vs their 16.6%, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (+0.12× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
Vikings15.4%inside their normal wobble · −4.1 vs their 19.5%, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (−0.53× that swing) · 26 dropbacks
Nothing either side did tonight left its own normal range. The widest departure was PHI's fourth-and-short go rate, 66.7% against a season mean of 32.8% — and PHI swings 36.0 points week to week, so that is a Sunday, not a plan.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Philadelphia Eagles
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Minnesota Vikings
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · PHI
19/23, 326 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT
18.9 expected points added · +17.9% completion over expected
Passing · MIN
26/42, 313 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT
-2.3 expected points added · -0.5% completion over expected
Receiving · PHI
9/11 for 183 yds, 1 TD
48% of team targets · 10.2 expected points added
Receiving · MIN
9/12 for 128 yds, 0 TD
30% of team targets · 7.2 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
A.J. Brown banked 15.9 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeVonta SmithWR · Alpha Receiver | 33.3 | +13.4 | 88% | 100% | 48% | 61% | 9/11, 183 yd, 1 TD |
| A.J. BrownWR · Alpha Receiver | 28.1 | +15.9 | 92% | 100% | 26% | 38% | 4/6, 121 yd, 2 TD |
| Jalen HurtsQB · Starter QB | 24.0 | +12.6 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 19/23, 326 yd, 3 TD · 4 car, -10 yd |
| Jordan AddisonWR · Alpha Receiver | 21.8 | +0.1 | 93% | 98% | 30% | 45% | 9/12, 128 yd |
| Justin JeffersonWR · Alpha Receiver | 12.9 | −5.9 | 99% | 98% | 25% | 30% | 5/10, 79 yd |
| Jordan MasonRB · Bell Cow Back | 11.7 | +0.2 | 77% | 76% | 0% | — | 15 car, 57 yd, 1 TD |
| Carson WentzQB · Starter QB | 11.3 | −12.3 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 26/42, 313 yd, 2 INT · 4 car, 28 yd |
| T.J. HockensonTE · Featured Receiver | 10.3 | −4.3 | 83% | 89% | 23% | 8% | 6/9, 43 yd |
| Jalen NailorWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.7 | −3.6 | 59% | 61% | 10% | 12% | 2/4, 37 yd |
| Saquon BarkleyRB · Bell Cow Back | 5.2 | −5.9 | 78% | 69% | 4% | 0% | 18 car, 44 yd · 1/1, -2 yd |
| Dallas GoedertTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.8 | +0.1 | 98% | 100% | 13% | 5% | 3/3, 18 yd |
| Adam ThielenWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.0 | −0.8 | 12% | 13% | 5% | 3% | 1/2, 10 yd |
| Tank BigsbyRB | 2.0 | +0.2 | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Josh OliverTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.9 | +0.3 | 46% | 35% | 3% | 1% | 1/1, 9 yd |
| Will ShipleyRB | 1.7 | +0.3 | 16% | 27% | 4% | 0% | 1/1, 7 yd |
| Zavier ScottRB | 1.6 | −2.8 | 13% | 11% | 3% | 0% | 4 car, 4 yd · 1/1, 2 yd |
| C.J. HamRB | 1.5 | −0.1 | 17% | 20% | 3% | 1% | 1/1, 5 yd |
| Myles PriceWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Tai FeltonWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| E.J. JenkinsTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Cameron LatuTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Xavier GipsonWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
6 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 5 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Vikings attack right, the Eagles attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(13:35) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short middle intended for 18-J.Jefferson INTERCEPTED by 58-J.Hunt [98-J.Carter] at MIN 42. 58-J.Hunt for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 13:35 · Vikings · 3rd & 5 at MIN 39 · gained nothing · -7.89 EP · −19.4% win probability
148 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 161 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 148 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 156. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
9 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was PHI moving 84 yards from the PHI 16 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; MIN attacks right, PHI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
161 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
161 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Eagles6
Vikings0Eagles7Vikings0Eagles7Vikings3How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
Eagles13Vikings3Eagles14Vikings3Eagles14Vikings6Eagles14Vikings9How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Eagles20Vikings9Eagles21Vikings9Eagles21Vikings15Eagles21Vikings16How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, caught in traffic.
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Eagles21Vikings19Eagles27Vikings19Eagles28Vikings19Eagles28Vikings22Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Eagles at Vikings, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 19/23 | 326 | 3 | 0 | 3 | +18.9 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley | 18 | 44 | 2.4 | 0 | −7.9 |
| Tank Bigsby | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 | +1.2 |
| Jalen Hurts |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeVonta Smith | 9 | 11 | 183 | 1 | 48% | +10.2 |
| A.J. Brown | 4 | 6 | 121 | 2 | 26% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zack Baun | 6 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cooper DeJean | 7 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Nakobe Dean |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Wentz | 26/42 | 313 | 0 | 2 | 2 | −2.3 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2025_07_PHI_MIN
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Eagles closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 6.
Total closed 43.5; the game landed 50 — over by 6.5.
Conditions and crew
| 4 |
| -10 |
| -2.5 |
| 0 |
| −0.5 |
| +14.5 |
| Dallas Goedert | 3 | 3 | 18 | 0 | 13% | −0.4 |
| Will Shipley | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 4% | −0.7 |
| Tank Bigsby | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 4% | −0.9 |
| Saquon Barkley | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 4% | −1.2 |
| 3 |
| 3 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Kelee Ringo | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Reed Blankenship | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Quinyon Mitchell | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jihaad Campbell | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Andrew Mukuba | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Patrick Johnson | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Adoree' Jackson | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Mason | 15 | 57 | 3.8 | 1 | −1.0 |
| Carson Wentz | 4 | 28 | 7.0 | 0 | −1.1 |
| Zavier Scott | 4 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 | −1.5 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Addison | 9 | 12 | 128 | 0 | 30% | +7.2 |
| Justin Jefferson | 5 | 10 | 79 | 0 | 25% | −3.6 |
| T.J. Hockenson | 6 | 9 | 43 | 0 | 23% | −2.4 |
| Jalen Nailor | 2 | 4 | 37 | 0 | 10% | +1.1 |
| Adam Thielen | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 5% | +1.3 |
| Josh Oliver | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 3% | +0.8 |
| C.J. Ham | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 3% | +0.1 |
| Zavier Scott | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3% | −0.5 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Metellus | 3 | 5 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Eric Wilson | 1 | 5 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Theo Jackson | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalen Redmond | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Harrison Smith | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jonathan Allen | 3 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Byron Murphy | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Blake Cashman | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeff Okudah | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dallas Turner | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
