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2025 Week 7 · Sun, Oct 19, 2025 · U.S. Bank Stadium
Final
EaglesPhiladelphia28
BY 6final margin
VikingsMinnesota22
Philadelphia Eagles 28 at Minnesota Vikings 22. Final.
Eagles -2.5 ✓O 43.5 ✓
The verdict · 2025 Week 7
Philadelphia Eagles 28, Vikings 22 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 13:35, 3rd and 5, on Jalyx Hunt — 15.3 win-probability points to the Eagles on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 13:35 · 3rd and 5
Jalyx Hunt
Eagles
(13:35) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short middle intended for 18-J.Jefferson INTERCEPTED by 58-J.Hunt [98-J.Carter] at MIN 42. 58-J.Hunt for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Dome
Eagles closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 6.
Philadelphia Eagles 28–22. Biggest swing: Q2 13:35, Eagles +15.3% win probability on one snap.
15.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
A.J. BrownEaglesQ1 7:07(7:07) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep left to 11-A.Brown for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
14.3pts
DeVonta SmithEaglesQ3 8:17(8:17) 74-F.Johnson reported in as eligible. 1-J.Hurts pass deep middle to 6-D.Smith for 79 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
13.4pts
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Eagles won this one — +0.73 expected points per dropback, against Vikings at +0.04 expected points per dropback.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Eagles won this one — +0.28 expected points per snap, against Vikings at -0.09 expected points per snap.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Eagles won this one — no giveaways, against Vikings at 2 giveaways.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Vikings owned this one and still lost it — 51% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Eagles at 40% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Vikingsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 7.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 17 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Vikings.
MarketModelmodel higher on Vikingshigher on Eagles150 of 161 plays carry both curves
(13:35) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short middle intended for 18-J.Jefferson INTERCEPTED by 58-J.Hunt [98-J.Carter] at MIN 42. 58-J.Hunt for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −15.3 for VikingsExpected points −7.89 for VikingsThe model had Vikings 13 points higher than the market did.play 38
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 13:35PHI +15% win prob(13:35) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short middle intended for 18-J.Jefferson INTERCEPTED by 58-J.Hunt [98-J.Carter] at MIN 42. 58-J.Hunt for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 7:07MIN +14% win prob(7:07) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep left to 11-A.Brown for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 8:17MIN +13% win prob(8:17) 74-F.Johnson reported in as eligible. 1-J.Hurts pass deep middle to 6-D.Smith for 79 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 14:19PHI +10% win prob(14:19) 4-J.Elliott 42 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-57-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Mann.
4th · 10:49PHI +9% win prob(10:49) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz sacked at PHI 17 for -7 yards (97-M.Ojomo).
3rd · 1:38MIN +8% win prob(1:38) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep left to 6-D.Smith to MIN 47 for 28 yards (8-J.Okudah). Penalty on MIN-51-B.Cashman, Illegal Contact, declined.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
A.J. Brown's 37-yard touchdown catch with 7:07 left in the 1st put Philadelphia Eagles ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 9 scores that followed.
4th2:00Will Reichard·29-yd field goal29-yard field goalholder R.Wright · snap A.DePaola+328–22
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Eaglescategory by categoryVikings
Eagles2–7Vikings
366Total yards387
7.6Yards per play5.8
40%Success rate51%
30%Third-down rate47%
0Red-zone touchdowns1
7Explosive plays9
13First downs20
3Sacks taken2
0Turnovers2
The read
Vikings ahead 7–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.73 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.28Eagles: +0.28 expected points added per play
−0.09Vikings: −0.09 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.73Eagles: +0.73 expected points added per play
+0.04Vikings: +0.04 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.24Eagles: −0.24 expected points added per play
−0.37Vikings: −0.37 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Eagles ran 48 snaps at a 54% dropback rate against Vikings’s 67 at 69%. Red-zone trips: Eagles 4, Vikings 6.
NoteVikings outgained Eagles 387-366 but lost the turnover battle 2-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 20 pts
right on their number · +0.8 vs their 16.6%, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (+0.12× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
Vikings15.4%
inside their normal wobble · −4.1 vs their 19.5%, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (−0.53× that swing) · 26 dropbacks
NoteNothing either side did tonight left its own normal range. The widest departure was PHI's fourth-and-short go rate, 66.7% against a season mean of 32.8% — and PHI swings 36.0 points week to week, so that is a Sunday, not a plan.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
6 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 5 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Vikings attack right, the Eagles attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Eagles←Vikings→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
C.Wentz pass−19% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(13:35) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short middle intended for 18-J.Jefferson INTERCEPTED by 58-J.Hunt [98-J.Carter] at MIN 42. 58-J.Hunt for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 13:35 · Vikings · 3rd & 5 at MIN 39 · gained nothing · -7.89 EP · −19.4% win probability
148 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 161 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 148 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 156. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was PHI moving 84 yards from the PHI 16 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; MIN attacks right, PHI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
161 of 161 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
161
EPA per play
+0.02
Success rate
47%
Yards
748
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Vikings1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR43-0.1470%
Eagles1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR22+0.3473%
Vikings1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR18+0.0361%
Eagles1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR15+0.1647%
Vikings2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5-0.2160%
Eagles1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR5-0.650%
Eagles1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Vikings1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Eagles2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Eagles1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
161 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
161 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter35 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.5 seconds
Eagles6Vikings0
Eagles7Vikings0
Touchdown14 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Vikings 37
Eagles7Vikings3
Field goal12 plays, from the Vikings 20 to the Eagles 19
Punt6 plays, from the Eagles 34 to the Eagles 43
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter40 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.1 seconds
Eagles13Vikings3
Touchdown3 plays, from the Vikings 34 to the Vikings 39
Eagles14Vikings3
Intercepted4 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Eagles 44 to the Eagles 47
Eagles14Vikings6
Field goal9 plays, from the Vikings 20 to the Eagles 6
Punt6 plays, from the Eagles 26 to the Eagles 27
Punt7 plays, from the Vikings 32 to midfield
The period ended6 plays, from the Eagles 16 to the Eagles 38
3rd quarter35 plays
Eagles14Vikings9
Field goal11 plays, from the Vikings 48 to the Eagles 9
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.5 seconds
Eagles20Vikings9
Eagles21Vikings9
Touchdown4 plays, from the Eagles 16 to the Eagles 21
Eagles21Vikings15
Eagles21Vikings16
Touchdown11 plays, from the Vikings 40 to the Eagles 1
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw6.4 seconds
The period ended9 plays, from the Eagles 30 to the Vikings 23
4th quarter51 plays
No good2 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Eagles21Vikings19
Field goal7 plays, from the Vikings 32 to the Eagles 10
Eagles27Vikings19
Eagles28Vikings19
Touchdown9 plays, from the Eagles 30 to the Vikings 26
Eagles28Vikings22
Field goal17 plays, from the Vikings 28 to the Eagles 10
The period ended15 plays, from the Eagles 43 to the Vikings 11
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
