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Pittsburgh Steelers 31 at Cincinnati Bengals 33. Final.
Steelers -5.5 upset
The verdict · 2025 Week 7
Cincinnati Bengals 33, Steelers 31 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 2:31, 2nd and 20, on Pat Freiermuth — 39.2 win-probability points to the Steelers on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 2:31 · 2nd and 20
Pat Freiermuth
Steelers
(2:31) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass deep left to 88-P.Freiermuth for 68 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
O 45.5 ✓
Steelers closed -5.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Cincinnati Bengals 33–31 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 2:31, Steelers +39.2% win probability on one snap.
39.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Evan McPhersonBengalsQ4 0:11(:11) 2-E.McPherson 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.
32.5pts
Aaron RodgersBengalsQ4 0:03(:03) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep left (38-D.Ivey).
26.1pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Bengals won this one — no giveaways, against Steelers at 2 giveaways.
Bengalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Steelers owned this one and still lost it — 3 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Bengals at 2 touchdowns on 5 trips.
Steelersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Steelers owned this one and still lost it — 7 of 10 on third down, against Bengals at 7 of 13 on third down.
Steelersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Bengals won this one — 8 chunk plays, against Steelers at 7 chunk plays.
4 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 15.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 30 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bengals.
MarketModelmodel higher on Bengalshigher on Steelers169 of 182 plays carry both curves
(2:31) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass deep left to 88-P.Freiermuth for 68 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −39.2 for BengalsExpected points −6.11 for BengalsThe model had Bengals 5 points higher than the market did.play 163
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 2:31CIN +39% win prob(2:31) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass deep left to 88-P.Freiermuth for 68 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 0:11CIN +32% win prob(:11) 2-E.McPherson 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.
4th · 0:03PIT +26% win prob(:03) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep left (38-D.Ivey).
2nd · 2:58CIN +14% win prob(2:58) 16-J.Flacco pass short left to 5-T.Higgins for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 1:47CIN +14% win prob(1:47) (Shotgun) 16-J.Flacco pass deep left to 5-T.Higgins to PIT 7 for 28 yards (25-D.Elliott).
3rd · 2:29CIN +13% win prob(2:29) (Shotgun) 16-J.Flacco pass deep middle to 80-A.Iosivas to PIT 24 for 37 yards (23-D.Slay).
3rd · 3:59CIN +12% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Evan McPherson's 36-yard field goal with 0:11 left in the 4th put Cincinnati Bengals ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
4th0:11Evan McPherson·36-yd field goal36-yard field goalholder R.Rehkow · snap W.WagnerLead never changed again+331–33
12 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Steelerscategory by categoryBengals
Steelers4–5Bengals
396Total yards481
7.3Yards per play7.0
50%Success rate51%
70%Third-down rate54%
3Red-zone touchdowns2
7Explosive plays8
19First downs24
0Sacks taken2
2Turnovers0
The read
Bengals ahead 5–4 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Steelers, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.39 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.36Steelers: +0.36 expected points added per play
+0.33Bengals: +0.33 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.39Steelers: +0.39 expected points added per play
+0.31Bengals: +0.31 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.32Steelers: +0.32 expected points added per play
+0.38Bengals: +0.38 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Steelers ran 54 snaps at a 65% dropback rate against Bengals’s 69 at 71%. Red-zone trips: Steelers 4, Bengals 5.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
CIN's sack or hit rate, 5.7%, was the lowest of the 30 team-games charted in week 7 — 0.3 points clear of the next team along.
35 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.0 points.
high through week 7Against their seasonOver Expected
CIN's pass rate over expected, +9.7 pts, is past their previous high of +6.5 pts in week 5 — the highest of their 7 charted games through week 7.
69 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.2 points.
PIT's play-action rate turned over: 35.5% in week 6 against 14.3% here — they faked the run then and dropped back clean now, a turn of 3.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
35 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.1 points.
PIT's sack or hit rate turned over: 25.9% in week 6 against 10.2% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
49 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.2 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 17 pts
inside their normal wobble · −5.6 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (−0.79× that swing) · 49 dropbacks
Bengals5.7%
leaned — stayed blocked · −8.2 vs their 13.9%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (−1.02× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
NoteCIN's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 9.7 pts, 8.2 points above their season mean of 1.6 pts and 1.6 times their own 5.2-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Pittsburgh Steelers
48 dressed · 4 inactive · 3 never used
66Mason McCormickG · Every snap100%57 snaps
73Isaac SeumaloG · Every snap100%57 snaps
8Aaron RodgersQB · Every snap100%57 snaps
77Broderick JonesT · Every snap100%57 snaps
76Troy FautanuT · Every snap100%57 snaps
54Zach FrazierC · Every snap100%57 snaps
4DK MetcalfWR · Full-time98%56 snaps
81Jonnu SmithTE · Heavy rotation70%40 snaps
30Jaylen WarrenRB · Heavy rotation65%37 snaps
88Pat FreiermuthTE · Heavy rotation65%37 snaps
80Darnell WashingtonTE · Heavy rotation63%36 snaps
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 5 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bengals attack right, the Steelers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Steelers←Bengals→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
A.Rodgers pass+33% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(2:31) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass deep left to 88-P.Freiermuth for 68 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 2:31 · Steelers · 2nd & 20 at PIT 32 · gained 68 · +6.11 EP · +33.3% win probability
167 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 182 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 167 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 177. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
12 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was CIN moving 76 yards from the CIN 24 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CIN attacks right, PIT attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
182 of 182 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
182
EPA per play
+0.22
Success rate
51%
Yards
866
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Bengals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR55+0.4267%
Steelers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR23+0.3278%
Steelers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR15+0.1767%
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13+0.0385%
Steelers1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7+0.1614%
Steelers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR5+1.5060%
Steelers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Steelers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Bengals1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Steelers0 RB, 4 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
182 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
182 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter41 plays
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the receiver created it himself.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.2 seconds
Steelers6Bengals0
Steelers7Bengals0
Touchdown11 plays, from the Steelers 31 to the Bengals 10
Punt8 plays, from the Bengals 27 to the Bengals 47
Punt5 plays, from the Steelers 26 to the Steelers 44
Punt10 plays, from the Bengals 17 to the Steelers 45
The period ended6 plays, from the Steelers 27 to the Bengals 49
2nd quarter50 plays
Steelers10Bengals0
Field goal10 plays, from the Bengals 42 to the Bengals 18
Steelers10Bengals6
Steelers10Bengals7
Touchdown14 plays, from the Bengals 28 to the Steelers 8
Intercepted2 plays
Steelers10Bengals13
Steelers10Bengals14
Touchdown5 plays, from the Bengals 24 to the Steelers 29
The period ended10 plays, from the Steelers 30 to the Bengals 41
Steelers10Bengals17
Field goal8 plays, from the Bengals 30 to the Steelers 31
3rd quarter36 plays
Steelers10Bengals20
Field goal15 plays, from the Bengals 32 to the Steelers 5
Steelers16Bengals20
Steelers17Bengals20
Touchdown12 plays, from the Steelers 39 to the Bengals 11
The period ended9 plays, from the Bengals 33 to the Steelers 8
4th quarter55 plays
Steelers17Bengals26
Steelers17Bengals27
Touchdown2 plays
Steelers23Bengals27
Steelers24Bengals27
Touchdown9 plays, from the Steelers 27 to the Bengals 2
Steelers24Bengals30
Field goal11 plays, from the Bengals 20 to the Steelers 17
Punt5 plays, from the Steelers 39 to the Steelers 45
Punt6 plays, from the Bengals 10 to the Bengals 22
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 9, three deep with a matchMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.5 seconds
Steelers30Bengals30
Steelers31Bengals30
Touchdown4 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
Steelers31Bengals33
Field goal14 plays, from the Bengals 30 to the Steelers 7
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap, from outside the pocket, the ball was not catchable.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw5.3 seconds
The period ended4 plays, from the Steelers 35 to the Steelers 40
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
