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2025 Week 7 · Thu, Oct 16, 2025 · Paycor Stadium

Pittsburgh Steelers

31

Cincinnati BengalsWinner

33

PIT -5.5 upsetO 45.5 ✓

Cincinnati Bengals 33–31 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 2:31, CIN +39% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3CIN ↑PIT ↓
Q4 · 2:31PIT 30 — CIN 30PIT ball · 2nd & 20CIN 81%

(2:31) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass deep left to 88-P.Freiermuth for 68 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 2:31CIN +39% win prob(2:31) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass deep left to 88-P.Freiermuth for 68 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  2. Q4 · 0:11CIN +32% win prob(:11) 2-E.McPherson 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.
  3. Q4 · 0:03PIT +26% win prob(:03) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep left (38-D.Ivey).
  4. Q2 · 2:58CIN +14% win prob(2:58) 16-J.Flacco pass short left to 5-T.Higgins for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 11:00PIT Touchdown

    (11:00) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 81-J.Smith for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN [44-D.Knight]. (kick good)

    Score after this play: PIT 7 — CIN 0
  2. Q2 · 10:31PIT Field goal

    (10:31) 9-C.Boswell 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-C.Waitman.

    Score after this play: PIT 10 — CIN 0
  3. Q2 · 4:42CIN Touchdown

    (4:42) (Shotgun) 16-J.Flacco pass short left to 1-J.Chase for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on PIT-5-J.Ramsey, Defensive Pass Interference, declined. (kick good)

    Score after this play: PIT 10 — CIN 7
  4. Q2 · 2:58CIN Touchdown

    (2:58) 16-J.Flacco pass short left to 5-T.Higgins for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: PIT 10 — CIN 14
  5. Q2 · 0:02CIN Field goal

    (:02) 2-E.McPherson 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.

    Score after this play: PIT 10 — CIN 17
  6. Q3 · 7:58CIN Field goal

    (7:58) 2-E.McPherson 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.

    Score after this play: PIT 10 — CIN 20
  7. Q3 · 3:59PIT Touchdown

    (3:59) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass deep left to 88-P.Freiermuth for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: PIT 17 — CIN 20
  8. Q4 · 15:00CIN Touchdown

    (15:00) (Shotgun) 16-J.Flacco pass short middle to 86-N.Fant for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: PIT 17 — CIN 27
  9. Q4 · 11:07PIT Touchdown

    (11:07) 8-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 80-D.Washington for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: PIT 24 — CIN 27
  10. Q4 · 7:03CIN Field goal

    (7:03) 2-E.McPherson 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.

    Score after this play: PIT 24 — CIN 30
  11. Q4 · 2:31PIT Touchdown

    (2:31) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass deep left to 88-P.Freiermuth for 68 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: PIT 31 — CIN 30
  12. Q4 · 0:11CIN Field goal

    (:11) 2-E.McPherson 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.

    Score after this play: PIT 31 — CIN 33

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricSteelersBengals
Offensive plays5469
Total yards396481 (edge)
Yards per play7.3 (edge)7.0
Expected points added / play0.36 (edge)0.33
Success rate50%51% (edge)
Dropback rate65%71%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.39 (edge)0.31
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.320.38 (edge)
Third downs7/10 (edge)7/13
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)78 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps1924 (edge)
Sacks taken0 (edge)2
Turnovers20 (edge)

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CIN

Joe FlaccoQB

31/47, 342 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

15.1 expected points added · +1.6% completion over expected

Passing · PIT

Aaron RodgersQB

23/34, 249 yds, 4 TD, 2 INT

13.3 expected points added · +4.9% completion over expected

Rushing · PIT

Jaylen WarrenRB

16 att, 127 yds, 0 TD

6.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CIN

Chase BrownRB

11 att, 108 yds, 0 TD

3.9 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CIN

Ja'Marr ChaseWR

16/23 for 161 yds, 1 TD

51% of team targets · 8.4 expected points added

Receiving · PIT

Pat FreiermuthTE

5/6 for 111 yds, 2 TD

18% of team targets · 9.4 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1PITPIT 3110744:09Touchdown +7
2CINCIN 278203:26Punt
3PITPIT 265181:27Punt
4CINCIN 178243:13Punt
5PITPIT 2712657:19Field goal +3
6CINCIN 2812775:48Touchdown +7
7PITPIT 30200:13Interception
8CINCIN 244721:33Touchdown +7
9PITPIT 308262:12Interception
10CINCIN 306270:40Field goal +3
11CINCIN 3215637:05Field goal +3
12PITPIT 3911614:00Touchdown +7
13CINCIN 3310673:58Touchdown +7
14PITPIT 279733:54Touchdown +7
15CINCIN 2010634:05Field goal +3
16PITPIT 39561:42Punt
17CINCIN 10652:30Punt
18PITPIT 423680:25Touchdown +7
19CINCIN 309632:14Field goal +3
20PITPIT 35350:07End of game

12 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bengals gained 77 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Pittsburgh Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Aaron Rodgers23/3424942013.3

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Jaylen Warren161277.906.1
Kenneth Gainwell3144.700.0
Aaron Rodgers166.000.3

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Pat Freiermuth56111218%9.4
DK Metcalf3550015%0.4
Jaylen Warren4531015%0.5
Jonnu Smith3628118%2.0
Roman Wilson221706%1.6
Scott Miller11903%0.8
Darnell Washington352115%0.2
Kenneth Gainwell22106%-0.8
Connor Heyward01003%-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
DeShon Elliott630.000
Cole Holcomb430.000
Payton Wilson330.000
Jalen Ramsey330.001
Joey Porter Jr.500.002
Juan Thornhill310.000
Patrick Queen130.000
Darius Slay310.000
Alex Highsmith120.000
Keeanu Benton301.000

Cincinnati Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Joe Flacco31/4734230215.1

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Chase Brown111089.803.9
Samaje Perine7314.400.9
Joe Flacco530.600.6

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Ja'Marr Chase1623161151%8.4
Tee Higgins61096122%7.3
Andrei Iosivas344909%2.2
Noah Fant444419%5.9
Chase Brown24-809%-3.2

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Barrett Carter840.000
Geno Stone320.001
Oren Burks230.000
Jordan Battle320.011
Demetrius Knight Jr.220.000
Logan Wilson130.001
B.J. Hill210.000
Daxton Hill210.000
Joseph Ossai110.000
Myles Murphy110.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
PIT -5.5
Closing total
45.5
PIT moneyline
-245
CIN moneyline
+200

Steelers closed -5.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 45.5; the game landed 64 — over by 18.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Paycor Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
60°F, wind 5 mph
Referee
Clay Martin
Rest
PIT 4 days · CIN 4 days
Coaches
Mike Tomlin vs Zac Taylor

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.