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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:22 AM ET · 16 to play
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 9 at Detroit Lions 24. Final.
Lions -6 ✓U 54.5 ✓
The verdict · 2025 Week 7
Detroit Lions 24, Buccaneers 9 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 7:49, 3rd and 4, on Jared Goff — 9.4 win-probability points to the Buccaneers on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 7:49 · 3rd and 4
Jared Goff
Buccaneers
(7:49) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff sacked at TB 44 for -9 yards (0-Y.Diaby). FUMBLES (0-Y.Diaby) [0-Y.Diaby], RECOVERED by TB-95-E.Roberts at TB 40.
Dome
Lions closed -6 and covered, winning by 15.
Detroit Lions 24–9. Biggest swing: Q1 7:49, Buccaneers +9.4% win probability on one snap.
9.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
A.St.LionsQ1 12:06(12:06) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 14-A.St. Brown for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
7.9pts
Jahmyr GibbsLionsQ2 6:01(6:01) (Shotgun) 0-J.Gibbs up the middle for 78 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
9.4pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Lions won this one — 8 chunk plays, against Buccaneers at 3 chunk plays.
Lionsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Lions won this one — -0.12 expected points per snap, against Buccaneers at -0.42 expected points per snap.
Lionsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Lions won this one — -0.25 expected points per dropback, against Buccaneers at -0.53 expected points per dropback.
Lionsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Lions won this one — 1 touchdown on 4 trips, against Buccaneers at 0 touchdowns on 2 trips.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 6.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 16 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Buccaneers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Lionshigher on Buccaneers167 of 178 plays carry both curves
(7:49) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff sacked at TB 44 for -9 yards (0-Y.Diaby). FUMBLES (0-Y.Diaby) [0-Y.Diaby], RECOVERED by TB-95-E.Roberts at TB 40.
Swing −9.4 for LionsExpected points −5.01 for LionsThe model had Buccaneers 10 points higher than the market did.play 19
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 7:49TB +9% win prob(7:49) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff sacked at TB 44 for -9 yards (0-Y.Diaby). FUMBLES (0-Y.Diaby) [0-Y.Diaby], RECOVERED by TB-95-E.Roberts at TB 40.
2nd · 6:01DET +9% win prob(6:01) (Shotgun) 0-J.Gibbs up the middle for 78 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 12:06DET +8% win prob(12:06) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 14-A.St. Brown for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 8:58DET +8% win prob(8:58) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 15-T.Johnson for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 14:53DET +6% win prob(14:53) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 0-J.Gibbs pushed ob at TB 39 for 30 yards (23-T.Smith).
1st · 0:46TB +5% win prob(:46) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short left to 18-I.TeSlaa.
2nd · 10:56
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Amon-Ra St. Brown's 27-yard touchdown catch with 12:06 left in the 1st put Detroit Lions ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Lead
1st12:06Amon-Ra St. Brown·27-yd TD catch27-yard touchdown catchfrom Jared Gofffrom Jared GoffLead never changed again+70–7
4th10:23Jake Bates·58-yd field goal58-yard field goalholder J.Fox · snap H.Hatten+39–24
6 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Buccaneerscategory by categoryLions
Buccaneers1–6Lions
252Total yards379
3.8Yards per play5.8
32%Success rate35%
25%Third-down rate23%
0Red-zone touchdowns1
3Explosive plays8
14First downs15
4Sacks taken4
2Turnovers2
The read
Lions ahead 6–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.53 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.42Buccaneers: −0.42 expected points added per play
−0.12Lions: −0.12 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.53Buccaneers: −0.53 expected points added per play
−0.25Lions: −0.25 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.14Buccaneers: +0.14 expected points added per play
+0.02Lions: +0.02 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Buccaneers ran 66 snaps at a 83% dropback rate against Lions’s 65 at 52%. Red-zone trips: Buccaneers 2, Lions 4.
NoteLions won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.12 expected points added per play vs -0.42.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
TB's sack or hit rate, 26.5%, was the highest of the 30 team-games charted in week 7 — 1.9 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of 21.7% in week 3.
34 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.0 points.
TB's blitz rate sent turned over: 21.3% in week 6 against 47.1% here — they sat back then and sent pressure now, a turn of 2.8 of their own weekly swings across the two.
34 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.2 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 19 pts
leaned — got home · +13.2 vs their 13.3%, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (+1.88× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Lions14.5%
right on their number · −1.7 vs their 16.3%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (−0.20× that swing) · 55 dropbacks
NoteTB's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 79.5%, 25.3 points above their season mean of 54.2% and 2.0 times their own 12.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Lions attack right, the Buccaneers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Buccaneers←Lions→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Gibbs up+11% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(6:01) (Shotgun) 0-J.Gibbs up the middle for 78 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 6:01 · Lions · 1st & 10 at DET 22 · gained 78 · +6.21 EP · +10.7% win probability
166 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 178 plays across 27 drives, personnel groupings on 165 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 173. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 27 drives ended in points. The longest march was DET moving 92 yards from the DET 8 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DET attacks right, TB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
178 of 178 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
178
EPA per play
-0.18
Success rate
35%
Yards
630
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR45-0.6096%
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR30-0.4973%
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR27+0.2730%
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR19-0.1558%
Lions1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Lions1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR2——
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Buccaneers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
178 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
178 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter36 plays
Buccaneers0Lions6
Buccaneers0Lions7
Touchdown9 plays, from the Lions 31 to the Buccaneers 27
Punt5 plays, from the Buccaneers 15 to the Buccaneers 22
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.9 seconds
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Lions 35 to the Buccaneers 35
Punt5 plays, from the Buccaneers 40 to the Buccaneers 43
Turnover on downs10 plays, from the Lions 14 to the Buccaneers 15
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter54 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Buccaneers 17 to the Buccaneers 47
Punt6 plays, from the Lions 14 to the Lions 34
Punt7 plays, from the Buccaneers 36 to midfield
How the play was built
A run-pass option, a man in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Buccaneers0Lions13
Buccaneers0Lions14
Touchdown7 plays, from the Lions 13 to the Lions 22
Punt5 plays, from the Buccaneers 35 to the Buccaneers 40
Punt5 plays, from the Lions 14 to the Lions 17
Fumble lost1 play
No good4 plays, from the Buccaneers 41 to the Buccaneers 35
Intercepted1 play
The period ended7 plays, from the Buccaneers 48 to the Buccaneers 38
Buccaneers3Lions14
Field goal5 plays, from the Buccaneers 43 to the Lions 35
3rd quarter35 plays
Buccaneers9Lions14
Touchdown14 plays, from the Buccaneers 33 to the Lions 22
Buccaneers9Lions20
Buccaneers9Lions21
Touchdown9 plays, from the Lions 27 to the Buccaneers 5
Punt5 plays, from the Buccaneers 21 to the Buccaneers 28
The period ended7 plays, from the Lions 30 to the Lions 49
4th quarter53 plays
Punt5 plays, from midfield to the Buccaneers 45
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Buccaneers 11 to the Buccaneers 37
Buccaneers9Lions24
Field goal4 plays
Turnover on downs20 plays, from the Buccaneers 29 to the Lions 12
The period ended7 plays, from the Lions 13 to the Lions 16
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Buccaneers 33 to the Lions 37
The period ended5 plays, from the Lions 34 to the Lions 38
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
