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2025 Week 7 · Mon, Oct 20, 2025 · Ford Field

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

9

Detroit LionsWinner

24

DET -6 ✓U 54.5 ✓Dome

Detroit Lions 24–9. Biggest swing: Q1 7:49, TB +9% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3DET ↑TB ↓
Q1 · 7:49TB 0 — DET 7DET ball · 3rd & 4DET 87%

(7:49) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff sacked at TB 44 for -9 yards (0-Y.Diaby). FUMBLES (0-Y.Diaby) [0-Y.Diaby], RECOVERED by TB-95-E.Roberts at TB 40.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q1 · 7:49TB +9% win prob(7:49) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff sacked at TB 44 for -9 yards (0-Y.Diaby). FUMBLES (0-Y.Diaby) [0-Y.Diaby], RECOVERED by TB-95-E.Roberts at TB 40.
  2. Q2 · 6:01DET +9% win prob(6:01) (Shotgun) 0-J.Gibbs up the middle for 78 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  3. Q1 · 12:06DET +8% win prob(12:06) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 14-A.St. Brown for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  4. Q3 · 8:58DET +8% win prob(8:58) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 15-T.Johnson for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 12:06DET Touchdown

    (12:06) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 14-A.St. Brown for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: TB 0 — DET 7
  2. Q2 · 6:01DET Touchdown

    (6:01) (Shotgun) 0-J.Gibbs up the middle for 78 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: TB 0 — DET 14
  3. Q2 · 0:04TB Field goal

    (:04) 4-C.McLaughlin 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

    Score after this play: TB 3 — DET 14
  4. Q3 · 8:58TB Touchdown

    (8:58) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 15-T.Johnson for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: TB 9 — DET 14
  5. Q3 · 4:44DET Touchdown

    (4:44) (No Huddle) 0-J.Gibbs up the middle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: TB 9 — DET 21
  6. Q4 · 10:23DET Field goal

    (10:23) 39-J.Bates 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.

    Score after this play: TB 9 — DET 24

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricBuccaneersLions
Offensive plays6665
Total yards252379 (edge)
Yards per play3.85.8 (edge)
Expected points added / play-0.42-0.12 (edge)
Success rate32%35% (edge)
Dropback rate83%52%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.53-0.25 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.14 (edge)0.02
Third downs4/16 (edge)3/13
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)38 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps1415 (edge)
Sacks taken44
Turnovers22

Lions won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.12 expected points added per play vs -0.42.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · DET

Jared GoffQB

20/29, 241 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-8.6 expected points added · -1.3% completion over expected

Passing · TB

Baker MayfieldQB

28/50, 228 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-25.0 expected points added · -9.4% completion over expected

Rushing · DET

Jahmyr GibbsRB

17 att, 136 yds, 2 TD

6.8 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · TB

Rachaad WhiteRB

10 att, 38 yds, 0 TD

1.9 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · DET

Amon-Ra St. BrownWR

6/10 for 86 yds, 1 TD

36% of team targets · -0.0 expected points added

Receiving · DET

Jahmyr GibbsRB

3/3 for 82 yds, 0 TD

11% of team targets · 6.4 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1DETDET 318643:01Touchdown +7
2TBTB 15572:22Punt
3DETDET 354251:55Fumble
4TBTB 40461:34Punt
5DETDET 1410715:25Turnover on downs
6TBTB 15592:27Punt
7DETDET 145133:08Punt
8TBTB 367142:33Punt
9DETDET 135931:44Touchdown +7
10TBTB 355-11:38Punt
11DETDET 14431:21Punt
12TBTB 38110:09Fumble
13DETTB 41450:51Missed field goal
14TBTB 45100:06Interception
15DETTB 48511:25Interception
16TBTB 433220:21Field goal +3
17TBTB 3313726:11Touchdown +6
18DETDET 279734:10Touchdown +7
19TBTB 21571:48Punt
20DETDET 3011254:45Punt
21TBTB 115291:35Turnover on downs
22DETTB 40401:13Field goal +3
23TBTB 2919535:54Turnover on downs
24DETDET 13420:26Punt
25TBTB 335331:30Turnover on downs
26DETDET 34442:15Punt
27TBTB 21100:13End of game

6 of 27 drives ended in points. Longest march: Lions gained 93 scrimmage yards over 5 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Baker Mayfield28/50228114-25.0

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Rachaad White10383.801.9
Sean Tucker144.00-0.3
Teddy Bridgewater1-1-1.000.0

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Cade Otton7965018%-2.0
Emeka Egbuka41258024%-8.3
Tez Johnson4958118%2.3
Sterling Shepard7725014%-6.0
Ryan Miller111402%-1.7
Rachaad White466012%-4.0
Sean Tucker11202%-0.4
Mike Evans04008%-3.7
Kameron Johnson01002%-1.1

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
SirVocea Dennis841.000
Tykee Smith751.000
Antoine Winfield Jr.620.000
Yaya Diaby231.000
Anthony Nelson321.000
Jacob Parrish230.000
Zyon McCollum140.000
Chris Braswell120.000
Logan Hall210.000
Elijah Roberts110.001

Detroit Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Jared Goff20/29241114-8.6

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Jahmyr Gibbs171368.026.8
David Montgomery13211.60-6.3
Jared Goff273.500.3

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Amon-Ra St. Brown61086136%-0.0
Jahmyr Gibbs3382011%6.4
Brock Wright3323011%1.6
David Montgomery2318011%-0.1
Kalif Raymond3317011%-0.8
Sam LaPorta3315011%1.1
Isaac TeSlaa01004%-3.5
Jameson Williams02007%-3.0

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Jack Campbell351.001
Erick Hallett620.000
Arthur Maulet500.011
Derrick Barnes231.001
Rock Ya-Sin220.002
Alex Anzalone310.000
Tyrus Wheat121.500
Thomas Harper210.001
Amik Robertson300.001
Aidan Hutchinson110.001

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
DET -6
Closing total
54.5
TB moneyline
+225
DET moneyline
-278

Lions closed -6 and covered, winning by 15.

Total closed 54.5; the game landed 33 — under by 21.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Ford Field
Roof / surface
dome · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee
John Hussey
Rest
TB 8 days · DET 8 days
Coaches
Todd Bowles vs Dan Campbell