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2025 Week 7 · Sun, Oct 19, 2025 · AT&T Stadium

Washington Commanders

22

Dallas CowboysWinner

44

DAL -1.5 ✓O 54.5 ✓Dome

Dallas Cowboys 44–22 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 4:38, DAL +15% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3DAL ↑WAS ↓
Q1 · 4:38WAS 8 — DAL 16DAL ball · 1st & 10DAL 59%

(4:38) 4-D.Prescott pass deep middle to 88-C.Lamb for 74 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q1 · 4:38DAL +15% win prob(4:38) 4-D.Prescott pass deep middle to 88-C.Lamb for 74 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  2. Q2 · 0:31DAL +11% win prob(:31) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep left to 3-G.Pickens pushed ob at WAS 35 for 44 yards (2-M.Lattimore).
  3. Q1 · 13:15DAL +10% win prob(13:15) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete deep left to 3-G.Pickens. PENALTY on WAS-2-M.Lattimore, Defensive Pass Interference, 37 yards, enforced at WAS 39 - No Play.
  4. Q1 · 9:31DAL +10% win prob(9:31) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass deep right to 19-C.Moore pushed ob at DAL 9 for 44 yards (38-A.Clark) [53-J.Houston]. Penalty on DAL-6-D.Wilson, Defensive Holding, declined.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 13:08DAL Touchdown

    (13:08) 33-J.Williams right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: WAS 0 — DAL 7
  2. Q1 · 11:35WAS Safety

    (11:35) 33-J.Williams up the middle tackled in End Zone for -1 yards, SAFETY (94-D.Payne, 55-J.Martin).

    Score after this play: WAS 2 — DAL 7
  3. Q1 · 7:44WAS Touchdown

    (7:44) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short right to 86-Z.Ertz for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: WAS 8 — DAL 7
  4. Q1 · 6:19DAL Field goal

    (6:19) 17-B.Aubrey 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

    Score after this play: WAS 8 — DAL 10
  5. Q1 · 4:38DAL Touchdown

    (4:38) 4-D.Prescott pass deep middle to 88-C.Lamb for 74 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: WAS 8 — DAL 17
  6. Q2 · 7:27DAL Field goal

    (7:27) 17-B.Aubrey 61 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

    Score after this play: WAS 8 — DAL 20
  7. Q2 · 0:49WAS Touchdown

    (:49) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: WAS 15 — DAL 20
  8. Q2 · 0:15DAL Touchdown

    (:15) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 87-J.Ferguson for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: WAS 15 — DAL 27
  9. Q3 · 7:48DAL Touchdown

    (7:48) (No Huddle) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 87-J.Ferguson for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: WAS 15 — DAL 34
  10. Q3 · 5:46DAL Touchdown

    (5:46) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short right intended for 26-J.McNichols INTERCEPTED by 26-D.Bland [13-D.Fowler] at DAL 32. 26-D.Bland for 68 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: WAS 15 — DAL 41
  11. Q3 · 2:39WAS Touchdown

    (2:39) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 73-T.Scott reported in as eligible. 36-C.Rodriguez left tackle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL-95-K.Clark was injured during the play. (kick good)

    Score after this play: WAS 22 — DAL 41
  12. Q4 · 12:48DAL Field goal

    (12:48) 17-B.Aubrey 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

    Score after this play: WAS 22 — DAL 44

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricCommandersCowboys
Offensive plays6460
Total yards342410 (edge)
Yards per play5.36.8 (edge)
Expected points added / play-0.220.10 (edge)
Success rate44% (edge)40%
Dropback rate63%55%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.440.25 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.14 (edge)-0.09
Third downs7/166/12 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)6 (edge)5
First downs gained on snaps1718 (edge)
Sacks taken41 (edge)
Turnovers20 (edge)

Cowboys won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.10 expected points added per play vs -0.22.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · DAL

Dak PrescottQB

21/30, 264 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

7.2 expected points added · +0.4% completion over expected

Passing · WAS

Jayden DanielsQB

12/22, 156 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

-5.9 expected points added · -9.6% completion over expected

Rushing · DAL

Javonte WilliamsRB

19 att, 116 yds, 1 TD

0.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · WAS

Jayden DanielsQB

8 att, 35 yds, 1 TD

2.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · DAL

CeeDee LambWR

5/8 for 110 yds, 1 TD

27% of team targets · 4.1 expected points added

Receiving · DAL

George PickensWR

4/6 for 82 yds, 0 TD

20% of team targets · 3.8 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1DALDAL 347291:55Touchdown +7
2WASWAS 39571:30Punt
3DALDAL 11-10:12Safety
4WASWAS 359653:45Touchdown +6
5DALDAL 406311:24Field goal +3
6WASWAS 13591:36Punt
7DALDAL 262740:11Touchdown +7
8WASWAS 288192:21Punt
9DALDAL 207212:56Punt
10WASWAS 107443:14Turnover on downs
11DALDAL 468333:34Field goal +3
12WASWAS 105131:53Punt
13DALDAL 277113:33Punt
14WASWAS 328581:11Touchdown +7
15DALDAL 286720:35Touchdown +7
16WASWAS 26200:10End of half
17WASWAS 358223:13Fumble
18DALDAL 4510554:03Touchdown +7
19WASWAS 405272:13Defensive touchdown
20WASWAS 479442:56Touchdown +7
21DALDAL 3310384:50Field goal +3
22WASWAS 287362:19Turnover on downs
23DALDAL 365253:36Punt
24WASWAS 84-22:18Punt
25DALDAL 257224:32End of game

10 of 25 drives ended in points. Longest march: Cowboys gained 74 scrimmage yards over 2 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Washington Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Jayden Daniels12/22156102-5.9
Marcus Mariota4/1063012-14.1

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Jayden Daniels8354.412.4
Marcus Mariota23417.002.7
Jacory Croskey-Merritt13332.50-2.5
Jeremy McNichols22211.001.6
Chris Rodriguez Jr.3124.011.6

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Jaylin Lane3660019%1.7
Chris Moore2559016%3.2
Zach Ertz3737123%-0.2
Robbie Chosen4436013%1.8
Jeremy McNichols2323010%-8.0
John Bates12506%-0.4
Luke McCaffrey02006%-5.9
Jacory Croskey-Merritt12-106%-2.1

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Bobby Wagner350.000
Quan Martin340.000
Marshon Lattimore310.001
Frankie Luvu130.000
Jordan Magee310.000
Daron Payne040.003
Sheldon Day220.000
Jacob Martin040.500
Jeremy Reaves220.000
Darnell Savage120.001

Dallas Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Dak Prescott21/302643017.2

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Javonte Williams191166.110.3
Jaydon Blue7294.10-1.8
Dak Prescott571.400.2

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
CeeDee Lamb58110127%4.1
George Pickens4682020%3.8
Jake Ferguson7729223%3.2
KaVontae Turpin111703%1.2
Jalen Tolbert121607%0.4
Jaydon Blue11503%-0.1
Hunter Luepke11303%-1.0
Javonte Williams142013%-3.8

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Kenneth Murray, Jr.631.000
Shemar James451.000
DaRon Bland520.011
Markquese Bell420.001
Jadeveon Clowney141.002
Donovan Ezeiruaku311.000
Kaiir Elam220.001
Trikweze Bridges400.000
Malik Davis210.000
James Houston110.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
DAL -1.5
Closing total
54.5
WAS moneyline
+105
DAL moneyline
-125

Cowboys closed -1.5 and covered, winning by 22.

Total closed 54.5; the game landed 66 — over by 11.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
AT&T Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · matrixturf
Kickoff weather
Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee
Alex Kemp
Rest
WAS 6 days · DAL 7 days
Coaches
Dan Quinn vs Brian Schottenheimer

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.