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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:47 AM ET · 16 to play
Washington Commanders 22 at Dallas Cowboys 44. Final.
Cowboys -1.5 ✓O 54.5 ✓
The verdict · 2025 Week 7
Dallas Cowboys 44, Commanders 22 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 4:38, 1st and 10, on CeeDee Lamb — 14.6 win-probability points to the Cowboys on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 4:38 · 1st and 10
CeeDee Lamb
Cowboys
(4:38) 4-D.Prescott pass deep middle to 88-C.Lamb for 74 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Dome
Cowboys closed -1.5 and covered, winning by 22.
Dallas Cowboys 44–22 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 4:38, Cowboys +14.6% win probability on one snap.
14.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Dak PrescottCowboysQ1 13:15(13:15) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete deep left to 3-G.Pickens. PENALTY on WAS-2-M.Lattimore, Defensive Pass Interference, 37 yards, enforced at WAS 39 - No Play.
9.8pts
George PickensCowboysQ2 0:31(:31) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep left to 3-G.Pickens pushed ob at WAS 35 for 44 yards (2-M.Lattimore).
11.2pts
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Cowboys won this one — +0.25 expected points per dropback, against Commanders at -0.44 expected points per dropback.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Cowboys won this one — no giveaways, against Commanders at 2 giveaways.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Cowboys won this one — +0.10 expected points per snap, against Commanders at -0.22 expected points per snap.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Commanders owned this one and still lost it — 3 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Cowboys at 3 touchdowns on 5 trips.
Commandersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 1.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 7 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Cowboys.
MarketModelmodel higher on Cowboyshigher on Commanders174 of 182 plays carry both curves
(4:38) 4-D.Prescott pass deep middle to 88-C.Lamb for 74 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +14.6 for CowboysExpected points +5.44 for CowboysThe model had Cowboys 5 points higher than the market did.play 39
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 4:38DAL +15% win prob(4:38) 4-D.Prescott pass deep middle to 88-C.Lamb for 74 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 0:31DAL +11% win prob(:31) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep left to 3-G.Pickens pushed ob at WAS 35 for 44 yards (2-M.Lattimore).
1st · 13:15DAL +10% win prob(13:15) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete deep left to 3-G.Pickens. PENALTY on WAS-2-M.Lattimore, Defensive Pass Interference, 37 yards, enforced at WAS 39 - No Play.
1st · 9:31DAL +10% win prob(9:31) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass deep right to 19-C.Moore pushed ob at DAL 9 for 44 yards (38-A.Clark) [53-J.Houston]. Penalty on DAL-6-D.Wilson, Defensive Holding, declined.
1st · 11:35WAS +9% win prob(11:35) 33-J.Williams up the middle tackled in End Zone for -1 yards, SAFETY (94-D.Payne, 55-J.Martin).
2nd · 7:27DAL +8% win prob(7:27) 17-B.Aubrey 61 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Brandon Aubrey's 47-yard field goal with 6:19 left in the 1st put Dallas Cowboys ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
4th12:48Brandon Aubrey·29-yd field goal29-yard field goalholder B.Anger · snap T.Sieg+322–44
12 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Commanderscategory by categoryCowboys
Commanders2–6Cowboys
342Total yards410
5.3Yards per play6.8
44%Success rate40%
44%Third-down rate50%
3Red-zone touchdowns3
6Explosive plays5
17First downs18
4Sacks taken1
2Turnovers0
The read
Cowboys ahead 6–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.44 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.22Commanders: −0.22 expected points added per play
+0.10Cowboys: +0.10 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.44Commanders: −0.44 expected points added per play
+0.25Cowboys: +0.25 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.14Commanders: +0.14 expected points added per play
−0.09Cowboys: −0.09 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Commanders ran 64 snaps at a 63% dropback rate against Cowboys’s 60 at 55%. Red-zone trips: Commanders 3, Cowboys 5.
NoteCowboys won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.10 expected points added per play vs -0.22.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
WAS's blitz rate sent, 12.1%, is past their previous low of 25.0% in week 4 — the lowest of their 7 charted games through week 7.
A 3.4-swing turn from week 6.
33 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -24 pts to 15 pts
right on their number · −2.1 vs their 14.2%, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (−0.33× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Cowboys17.5%
right on their number · +1.0 vs their 16.5%, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (+0.13× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
NoteDAL's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 50.0%, 22.8 points above their season mean of 27.2% and 1.9 times their own 12.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Cowboys attack right, the Commanders attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Commanders←Cowboys→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Prescott pass+13% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(4:38) 4-D.Prescott pass deep middle to 88-C.Lamb for 74 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 4:38 · Cowboys · 1st & 10 at DAL 26 · gained 74 · +5.44 EP · +13.2% win probability
172 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 182 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 172 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 177. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was DAL moving 74 yards from the DAL 26 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DAL attacks right, WAS attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
182 of 182 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
182
EPA per play
+0.04
Success rate
46%
Yards
750
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Cowboys1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR43+0.2860%
Commanders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR35-0.1563%
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR23-0.4748%
Cowboys1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11-0.2936%
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Cowboys2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Commanders1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Commanders0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Cowboys1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Cowboys2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Cowboys2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
182 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
182 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter54 plays
Commanders0Cowboys6
Commanders0Cowboys7
Touchdown9 plays, from the Cowboys 34 to the Commanders 2
Punt6 plays, from the Commanders 39 to the Commanders 47
Commanders2Cowboys7
Commanders8Cowboys7
Touchdown9 plays, from the Commanders 35 to the Cowboys 4
Commanders8Cowboys10
Field goal7 plays, from the Cowboys 40 to the Commanders 29
Punt5 plays, from the Commanders 13 to the Commanders 22
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.9 seconds
Commanders8Cowboys16
Commanders8Cowboys17
Touchdown2 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Commanders 28 to the Commanders 47
The period ended6 plays, from the Cowboys 20 to the Cowboys 40
2nd quarter54 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Cowboys 35 to the Cowboys 41
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Commanders 10 to the Cowboys 44
Commanders8Cowboys20
Field goal9 plays, from the Cowboys 46 to the Commanders 41
Punt7 plays, from the Commanders 10 to the Commanders 18
Punt7 plays, from the Cowboys 27 to the Cowboys 39
Commanders14Cowboys20
Commanders15Cowboys20
Touchdown9 plays, from the Commanders 32 to the Cowboys 1
Commanders15Cowboys26
Commanders15Cowboys27
Touchdown8 plays, from the Cowboys 28 to the Commanders 2
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter45 plays
Fumble lost8 plays, from the Commanders 35 to the Cowboys 39
Commanders15Cowboys33
Commanders15Cowboys34
Touchdown10 plays, from the Cowboys 45 to the Commanders 5
Commanders15Cowboys40
Touchdown6 plays, from the Commanders 40 to the Cowboys 33
Commanders15Cowboys41
Commanders21Cowboys41
Commanders22Cowboys41
Touchdown12 plays, from the Commanders 47 to the Cowboys 3
The period ended8 plays, from the Cowboys 33 to the Commanders 18
4th quarter29 plays
Commanders22Cowboys44
Field goal4 plays, from the Commanders 15 to the Commanders 11
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Commanders 28 to the Cowboys 36
Punt6 plays, from the Cowboys 36 to the Commanders 48
Punt4 plays
The period ended8 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Cowboys 47
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Cowboys -1.5
Closing total
54.5
Commanders moneyline
+105
Cowboys moneyline
-125
Cowboys closed -1.5 and covered, winning by 22.
Total closed 54.5; the game landed 66 — over by 11.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
AT&T Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · matrixturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Alex Kemp
Rest
Commanders 6 days · Cowboys 7 days
Coaches
Dan Quinn vs Brian Schottenheimer
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
3rd · 11:53WAS +7% win prob(11:53) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels sacked at DAL 45 for -6 yards (50-S.James). FUMBLES (50-S.James) [50-S.James], touched at DAL 43, RECOVERED by DAL-42-J.Clowney at DAL 45. WAS-5-J.Daniels was injured during the play.
2nd · 0:23DAL +6% win prob(:23) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 33-J.Williams left guard to WAS 2 for 33 yards (4-F.Luvu).
