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Game Center
Game Center
2025 Week 8 · Sun, Oct 26, 2025 · Bank of America Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2025 Week 8
It turned at Q1 3:51, 2nd and 11, on Andy Dalton — 8.1 win-probability points to the Bills on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 3:51 · 2nd and 11
Andy Dalton
Bills
(3:51) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton scrambles right end to BUF 20 for 1 yard (50-G.Rousseau). FUMBLES (50-G.Rousseau), RECOVERED by BUF-47-C.Benford at BUF 11. 47-C.Benford to BUF 17 for 6 yards (70-B.Christensen; 14-A.Dalton).
Buffalo Bills 40–9 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 3:51, Bills +8.1% win probability on one snap.
8.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Every snap
Bills won this one — +0.34 expected points per snap, against Panthers at -0.34 expected points per snap.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Bills won this one — +0.34 expected points per dropback, against Panthers at -0.54 expected points per dropback.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Bills won this one — no giveaways, against Panthers at 3 giveaways.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Bills won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Panthers at 3 chunk plays.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 10.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 31 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Panthers.
(3:51) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton scrambles right end to BUF 20 for 1 yard (50-G.Rousseau). FUMBLES (50-G.Rousseau), RECOVERED by BUF-47-C.Benford at BUF 11. 47-C.Benford to BUF 17 for 6 yards (70-B.Christensen; 14-A.Dalton).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Matt Prater's 45-yard field goal with 7:18 left in the 1st put Buffalo Bills ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
Matt Prater45-yd field goal45-yard field goalholder M.Wishnowsky · snap R.FergusonLead never changed again+33–09 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Billscategory by categoryPanthers
Bills ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.54 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bills ran 60 snaps at a 42% dropback rate against Panthers’s 59 at 54%. Red-zone trips: Bills 6, Panthers 3.
Bills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.34 expected points added per play vs -0.34.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
10 of 11 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
BUF's early-down pass rate, 31.3%, was the lowest of the 26 team-games charted in week 8 — 2.1 points clear of the next team along.
48 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.5 points.
BUF's sack or hit rate, 28.1%, was the highest of the 26 team-games charted in week 8 — 4.6 points clear of the next team along.
32 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.5 points.
CAR's pass rate over expected, −18.4 pts, was the lowest of the 26 team-games charted in week 8 — 7.3 points clear of the next team along.
59 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.1 points.
BUF's pass rate over expected, −11.1 pts, is past their previous low of −8.2 pts in week 2 — the lowest of their 7 charted games through week 8.
60 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.5 points.
CAR's play-action rate turned over: 33.3% in week 7 against 9.4% here — they faked the run then and dropped back clean now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
32 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.1 points.
CAR's sack or hit rate turned over: 20.5% in week 7 against 8.0% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
25 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.5 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -29 pts to 17 pts
Over Expected room →Bills-11.1 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −8.0 vs their -3.1 pts, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (−1.22× that swing) · 60 snaps
Panthers-18.4 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −12.5 vs their -5.9 pts, and they swing ±9.1 week to week (−1.36× that swing) · 59 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 18% to 88%
Tendencies room →Bills31.3%leaned — ran early · −19.1 vs their 50.3%, and they swing ±11.5 week to week (−1.66× that swing) · 48 early downs
Panthers46.8%right on their number · −6.1 vs their 52.9%, and they swing ±13.6 week to week (−0.45× that swing) · 47 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -12% to 66%
Tendencies room →Bills20.0%right on their number · −7.1 vs their 27.1%, and they swing ±15.3 week to week (−0.47× that swing) · 25 dropbacks
Panthers9.4%leaned — dropped back clean · −13.4 vs their 22.8%, and they swing ±10.1 week to week (−1.33× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 6% to 116%
Fourth Down room →Bills—Only 0 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 61.1%.
Panthers—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 68.0%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 6% to 55%
Tendencies room →Bills25.0%inside their normal wobble · −5.9 vs their 30.9%, and they swing ±9.4 week to week (−0.63× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
Panthers32.0%right on their number · +3.7 vs their 28.3%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (+0.42× that swing) · 25 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -6% to 38%
Tendencies room →Bills28.1%leaned — got home · +11.8 vs their 16.4%, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (+1.38× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
Panthers8.0%right on their number · −1.3 vs their 9.3%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (−0.24× that swing) · 25 dropbacks
BUF's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 31.3%, 19.1 points below their season mean of 50.3% and 1.7 times their own 11.5-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Buffalo Bills
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Carolina Panthers
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · CAR
16/24, 175 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT
-12.9 expected points added · +3.7% completion over expected
Passing · BUF
12/19, 163 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
7.7 expected points added · -7.2% completion over expected
Receiving · CAR
7/10 for 99 yds, 0 TD
43% of team targets · 4.8 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
James Cook banked 22.7 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James CookRB · Committee Back | 33.6 | +22.7 | 44% | 32% | 0% | — | 19 car, 216 yd, 2 TD |
| Josh AllenQB · Starter QB | 23.2 | +6.5 | 83% | — | 0% | — | 12/19, 163 yd, 1 TD · 3 car, 7 yd, 2 TD |
| Khalil ShakirWR · Alpha Receiver | 20.8 | +10.3 | 48% | 64% | 30% | 7% | 6/7, 88 yd, 1 TD |
| Tetairoa McMillanWR · Alpha Receiver | 16.9 | −0.3 | 93% | 97% | 43% | 54% | 7/10, 99 yd |
| Chuba HubbardRB · Committee Back | 9.4 | +0.8 | 57% | 59% | 4% | 3% | 12 car, 34 yd, 1 TD · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Jalen CokerWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.6 | +1.6 | 66% | 75% | 17% | 11% | 3/4, 36 yd |
| Keon ColemanWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.0 | −0.8 | 73% | 76% | 17% | 16% | 3/4, 30 yd |
| Rico DowdleRB | 5.4 | +1.2 | 36% | 38% | 0% | — | 8 car, 54 yd |
| Ja'Tavion SandersTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.9 | +0.6 | 54% | 53% | 13% | 1% | 3/3, 19 yd |
| Xavier LegetteWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.7 | −1.0 | 89% | 91% | 13% | 11% | 2/3, 17 yd |
| Jackson HawesTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.5 | −2.1 | 56% | 36% | 13% | 16% | 2/3, 15 yd |
| Dalton KincaidTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.3 | −1.9 | 22% | 48% | 13% | 22% | 1/3, 23 yd |
| Dawson KnoxTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.5 | +0.6 | 43% | 32% | 4% | 10% | 1/1, 15 yd |
| Elijah MooreWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.4 | −5.5 | 46% | 52% | 17% | 28% | 1/4, 14 yd |
| Ray DavisRB | 1.6 | −8.3 | 24% | 16% | 4% | 1% | 9 car, 16 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Trevor EtienneRB | 1.6 | −0.6 | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Tommy TrembleTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.4 | 0.0 | 46% | 41% | 4% | 1% | 1/1, 4 yd |
| Andy DaltonQB · Starter QB | 1.1 | −8.4 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 16/24, 175 yd, 1 INT · 2 car, 1 yd |
| Jimmy Horn Jr.WR · Rotational Receiver | 0.9 | −2.1 | 13% | 13% | 4% | 8% | 2 car, 9 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Mitchell TrubiskyQB | 0.9 | −0.8 | 17% | — | 0% | — | 2/4, 22 yd |
| Ty JohnsonRB | 0.6 | −1.5 | 32% | 52% | 0% | — | 4 car, 6 yd |
| Reggie GilliamRB | 0.0 | — | 41% | 24% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Curtis SamuelWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 30% | 36% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Brycen TremayneWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 13% | 6% | 0% | — | No touches. |
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Panthers attack right, the Bills attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(3:51) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton scrambles right end to BUF 20 for 1 yard (50-G.Rousseau). FUMBLES (50-G.Rousseau), RECOVERED by BUF-47-C.Benford at BUF 11. 47-C.Benford to BUF 17 for 6 yards (70-B.Christensen; 14-A.Dalton).
Q1 3:51 · Panthers · 2nd & 11 at BUF 21 · gained 1 · -4.29 EP · −15.4% win probability
154 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 164 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 154 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 159. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
9 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was BUF moving 88 yards from the BUF 12 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CAR attacks right, BUF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
164 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
164 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Bills3
Panthers0How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, the ball was not catchable.
Bills6Panthers0Bills6Panthers3Bills12Panthers3How the play was built
A screen, nobody in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap, it should have been intercepted.
Bills18Panthers3Bills19Panthers3Bills25Panthers3Bills26Panthers3Bills32Panthers3Bills33Panthers3Bills39Panthers3Bills40Panthers3Bills40Panthers9Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Bills at Panthers, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 12/19 | 163 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +7.7 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | 2/4 | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0.7 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Cook | 19 | 216 | 11.4 | 2 | +15.4 |
| Ray Davis | 9 | 16 | 1.8 | 0 | −3.8 |
| Josh Allen |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khalil Shakir | 6 | 7 | 88 | 1 | 30% | +6.4 |
| Keon Coleman | 3 | 4 | 30 | 0 | 17% | +2.3 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dorian Williams | 4 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Joe Andreessen | 2 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cole Bishop | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Hancock |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 16/24 | 175 | 0 | 1 | 7 | −12.9 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rico Dowdle |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2025_08_BUF_CAR
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Bills closed -7 and covered, winning by 31.
Total closed 47.5; the game landed 49 — over by 1.5.
Conditions and crew
| 3 |
| 7 |
| 2.3 |
| 2 |
| +1.7 |
| Ty Johnson | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 | −1.0 |
| Dalton Kincaid | 1 | 3 | 23 | 0 | 13% | +1.5 |
| Dawson Knox | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 | 4% | +1.3 |
| Jackson Hawes | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 | 13% | +1.5 |
| Elijah Moore | 1 | 4 | 14 | 0 | 17% | −0.3 |
| Ray Davis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.6 |
| 2 |
| 3 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Jordan Poyer | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| A.J. Epenesa | 3 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Taron Johnson | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Shaq Thompson | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ed Oliver | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cam Lewis | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 |
| 54 |
| 6.8 |
| 0 |
| +1.6 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 12 | 34 | 2.8 | 1 | −2.7 |
| Trevor Etienne | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 0 | −0.8 |
| Jimmy Horn Jr. | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 | +0.1 |
| Andy Dalton | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | −5.7 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tetairoa McMillan | 7 | 10 | 99 | 0 | 43% | +4.8 |
| Jalen Coker | 3 | 4 | 36 | 0 | 17% | −2.8 |
| Ja'Tavion Sanders | 3 | 3 | 19 | 0 | 13% | −0.4 |
| Xavier Legette | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 | 13% | +3.0 |
| Tommy Tremble | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 4% | +0.0 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.5 |
| Jimmy Horn Jr. | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −1.3 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Rozeboom | 6 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Nick Scott | 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Trevin Wallace | 5 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tre'von Moehrig | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tershawn Wharton | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nic Scourton | 1 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| D.J. Wonnum | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Thomas Incoom | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chau Smith-Wade | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| A'Shawn Robinson | 1 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
