2025 Week 8 · Sun, Oct 26, 2025 · Bank of America Stadium

Buffalo BillsWinner

Carolina Panthers

BUF -7 ✓O 47.5 ✓Bills closed -7 and covered, winning by 31.

Buffalo Bills 40–9 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 3:51, BUF +8% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 3:51BUF 3 — CAR 0CAR ball · 2nd & 11BUF 75%

(3:51) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton scrambles right end to BUF 20 for 1 yard (50-G.Rousseau). FUMBLES (50-G.Rousseau), RECOVERED by BUF-47-C.Benford at BUF 11. 47-C.Benford to BUF 17 for 6 yards (70-B.Christensen; 14-A.Dalton).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 3:51BUF +8% win prob(3:51) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton scrambles right end to BUF 20 for 1 yard (50-G.Rousseau). FUMBLES (50-G.Rousseau), RECOVERED by BUF-47-C.Benford at BUF 11. 47-C.Benford to BUF 17 for 6 yards (70-B.Christensen; 14-A.Dalton).
Q2 · 1:58BUF +7% win prob(1:58) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short left intended for 18-J.Coker INTERCEPTED by 57-A.Epenesa at CAR 25. 57-A.Epenesa to CAR 1 for 24 yards (30-C.Hubbard).
Q1 · 13:39BUF +7% win prob(13:39) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton sacked at CAR 26 for -9 yards (91-E.Oliver).
Q1 · 2:13CAR +5% win prob(2:13) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 86-D.Kincaid to CAR 30 for 23 yards (7-T.Moehrig).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 7:18BUF Field goal
(7:18) 15-M.Prater 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky.
Score after this play: BUF 3 — CAR 0
Q2 · 13:07BUF Field goal
(13:07) 15-M.Prater 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky.
Score after this play: BUF 6 — CAR 0
Q2 · 9:03CAR Field goal
(9:03) 10-R.Fitzgerald 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.
Score after this play: BUF 6 — CAR 3
Q2 · 7:35BUF Touchdown
(7:35) 4-J.Cook left guard for 64 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: BUF 12 — CAR 3
Q2 · 1:52BUF Touchdown
(1:52) 70-A.Anderson reported in as eligible. 17-J.Allen up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BUF 19 — CAR 3
Q3 · 12:28BUF Touchdown
(12:28) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 10-K.Shakir for 54 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BUF 26 — CAR 3
Q3 · 5:04BUF Touchdown
(5:04) 4-J.Cook up the middle for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BUF 33 — CAR 3
Q3 · 1:21BUF Touchdown
(1:21) (No Huddle) 17-J.Allen up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BUF 40 — CAR 3
Q4 · 10:37CAR Touchdown
(10:37) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 30-C.Hubbard right guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: BUF 40 — CAR 9

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Bills	Panthers
Offensive plays	60	59
Total yards	410 (edge)	244
Yards per play	6.8 (edge)	4.1
Expected points added / play	0.34 (edge)	-0.34
Success rate	48% (edge)	37%
Dropback rate	42%	54%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.34 (edge)	-0.54
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.35 (edge)	-0.12
Third downs	7/12 (edge)	4/11
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	9 (edge)	3
First downs gained on snaps	22 (edge)	17
Sacks taken	2 (edge)	7
Turnovers	0 (edge)	3

Bills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.34 expected points added per play vs -0.34.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CAR

Andy DaltonQB

16/24, 175 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-12.9 expected points added · +3.7% completion over expected

Passing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

12/19, 163 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

7.7 expected points added · -7.2% completion over expected

Rushing · BUF

James CookRB

19 att, 216 yds, 2 TD

15.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CAR

Rico DowdleRB

8 att, 54 yds, 0 TD

1.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CAR

Tetairoa McMillanWR

7/10 for 99 yds, 0 TD

43% of team targets · 4.8 expected points added

Receiving · BUF

Khalil ShakirWR

6/7 for 88 yds, 1 TD

30% of team targets · 6.4 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CAR	CAR 31	5	-5	2:15	Punt
2	BUF	BUF 24	11	49	5:31	Field goal +3
3	CAR	CAR 29	8	46	3:34	Fumble
4	BUF	BUF 17	12	63	5:37	Field goal +3
5	CAR	CAR 35	10	45	4:05	Field goal +3
6	BUF	BUF 23	5	77	1:35	Touchdown +6
7	CAR	CAR 27	5	3	1:41	Punt
8	BUF	BUF 26	6	14	2:22	Punt
9	CAR	CAR 13	5	19	1:28	Interception
10	BUF	CAR 1	2	1	0:02	Touchdown +7
11	CAR	CAR 31	10	45	1:50	Missed field goal
12	BUF	BUF 35	6	70	2:42	Touchdown +7
13	CAR	CAR 35	6	5	2:07	Punt
14	BUF	BUF 12	10	88	5:12	Touchdown +7
15	CAR	CAR 29	2	-4	0:18	Fumble
16	BUF	CAR 19	7	19	3:22	Touchdown +7
17	CAR	CAR 33	15	67	5:46	Touchdown +6
18	BUF	BUF 16	10	26	5:36	Punt
19	CAR	CAR 19	4	7	1:38	Punt
20	BUF	BUF 27	4	3	1:33	Punt
21	CAR	CAR 23	4	16	1:46	End of game

9 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bills gained 88 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Buffalo Bills

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Josh Allen	12/19	163	1	0	2	7.7
Mitchell Trubisky	2/4	22	0	0	0	0.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
James Cook	19	216	11.4	2	15.4
Ray Davis	9	16	1.8	0	-3.8
Josh Allen	3	7	2.3	2	1.7
Ty Johnson	4	6	1.5	0	-1.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Khalil Shakir	6	7	88	1	30%	6.4
Keon Coleman	3	4	30	0	17%	2.3
Dalton Kincaid	1	3	23	0	13%	1.5
Jackson Hawes	2	3	15	0	13%	1.5
Dawson Knox	1	1	15	0	4%	1.3
Elijah Moore	1	4	14	0	17%	-0.3
Ray Davis	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Dorian Williams	4	4	0.0	0	0
Cole Bishop	3	4	0.0	0	0
Joe Andreessen	2	5	0.0	0	0
Jordan Poyer	1	4	0.0	0	0
Jordan Hancock	2	3	0.0	0	0
Taron Johnson	2	2	0.0	0	0
A.J. Epenesa	3	1	1.0	1	1
Shaq Thompson	3	1	0.0	0	0
Greg Rousseau	3	0	1.0	0	0
Larry Ogunjobi	1	2	0.0	0	0

Carolina Panthers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Andy Dalton	16/24	175	0	1	7	-12.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Rico Dowdle	8	54	6.8	0	1.6
Chuba Hubbard	12	34	2.8	1	-2.7
Trevor Etienne	4	16	4.0	0	-0.8
Jimmy Horn Jr.	2	9	4.5	0	0.1
Andy Dalton	2	1	0.5	0	-5.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Tetairoa McMillan	7	10	99	43%	4.8
Jalen Coker	3	4	36	17%	-2.8
Ja'Tavion Sanders	3	3	19	13%	-0.4
Xavier Legette	2	3	17	13%	3.0
Tommy Tremble	1	1	4	4%	0.0
Chuba Hubbard	0	1	0	4%	-0.5
Jimmy Horn Jr.	0	1	0	4%	-1.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Christian Rozeboom	6	5	0.0	1
Nick Scott	5	3	0.0	0
Trevin Wallace	5	2	1.0	0
Tre'von Moehrig	1	3	0.0	0
Tershawn Wharton	2	2	0.0	0
Nic Scourton	1	3	0.5	0
Thomas Incoom	1	2	0.0	0
D.J. Wonnum	1	2	0.0	0
A'Shawn Robinson	1	2	0.5	0
Chau Smith-Wade	2	1	0.0	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: BUF -7
Closing total: 47.5
BUF moneyline: -395
CAR moneyline: +310

Bills closed -7 and covered, winning by 31.

Total closed 47.5; the game landed 49 — over by 1.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Bank of America Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 63°F, wind 9 mph
Referee: Craig Wrolstad
Rest: BUF 13 days · CAR 7 days
Coaches: Sean McDermott vs Dave Canales