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DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:42 AM ET · 16 to play
2025 Week 8 · Sun, Oct 26, 2025 · M&T Bank Stadium
Final
BearsChicago16
BY 14final margin
RavensBaltimore30
Chicago Bears 16 at Baltimore Ravens 30. Final.
Ravens -2.5 ✓O 45.5 ✓
The verdict · 2025 Week 8
Baltimore Ravens 30, Bears 16 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 9:08, 2nd and 10, on Nate Wiggins — 12.2 win-probability points to the Ravens on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 9:08 · 2nd and 10
Nate Wiggins
Ravens
(9:08) 18-C.Williams pass short right intended for 15-R.Odunze INTERCEPTED by 2-N.Wiggins at CHI 18. 2-N.Wiggins ran ob at CHI 9 for 9 yards (84-C.Loveland).
Ravens closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 14.
Baltimore Ravens 30–16. Biggest swing: Q4 9:08, Ravens +12.2% win probability on one snap.
12.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Caleb WilliamsRavensQ2 0:26(:26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass incomplete short left. PENALTY on CHI-18-C.Williams, Intentional Grounding, 10 yards, enforced at BAL 39.
11.7pts
Rashod BatemanRavensQ3 14:55(14:55) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass deep right to 7-R.Bateman to CHI 30 for 36 yards (31-K.Byard).
6.9pts
What separated them
Every snap
Ravens won this one — +0.22 expected points per snap, against Bears at +0.02 expected points per snap.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Ravens won this one — no giveaways, against Bears at 1 giveaway.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Ravens won this one — +0.15 expected points per carry, against Bears at -0.05 expected points per carry.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Ravens won this one — +0.31 expected points per dropback, against Bears at +0.06 expected points per dropback.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 1.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 6 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Ravens.
MarketModelmodel higher on Ravenshigher on Bears160 of 170 plays carry both curves
(9:08) 18-C.Williams pass short right intended for 15-R.Odunze INTERCEPTED by 2-N.Wiggins at CHI 18. 2-N.Wiggins ran ob at CHI 9 for 9 yards (84-C.Loveland).
Swing +12.2 for RavensExpected points +4.29 for RavensModel and market agree here.play 130
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 9:08CHI +12% win prob(9:08) 18-C.Williams pass short right intended for 15-R.Odunze INTERCEPTED by 2-N.Wiggins at CHI 18. 2-N.Wiggins ran ob at CHI 9 for 9 yards (84-C.Loveland).
2nd · 0:26CHI +12% win prob(:26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass incomplete short left. PENALTY on CHI-18-C.Williams, Intentional Grounding, 10 yards, enforced at BAL 39.
3rd · 14:55BAL +7% win prob(14:55) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass deep right to 7-R.Bateman to CHI 30 for 36 yards (31-K.Byard).
3rd · 0:57BAL +7% win prob(:57) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass deep right to 15-R.Odunze to BAL 34 for 27 yards (24-M.Starks).
2nd · 6:54CHI +7% win prob(6:54) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass incomplete short right [14-K.Hamilton]. PENALTY on CHI-18-C.Williams, Intentional Grounding, 14 yards, enforced at BAL 46.
4th · 14:14BAL +7% win prob(14:14) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short left to 4-D.Swift to BAL 5 for 25 yards (44-M.Humphrey). BAL-44-M.Humphrey was injured during the play.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Derrick Henry's 2-yard rushing touchdown with 8:19 left in the 2nd put Baltimore Ravens ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Lead
1st6:55Cairo Santos·32-yd field goal32-yard field goalholder T.Taylor · snap S.Daly+33–0
1st0:07Cairo Santos·39-yd field goal39-yard field goalholder T.Taylor · snap S.Daly+36–0
2nd8:19Derrick Henry·2-yd TD run2-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+76–7
2nd1:11Tyler Loop·42-yd field goal42-yard field goalholder J.Stout · snap N.Moore+36–10
3rd10:08Tyler Loop·28-yd field goal28-yard field goalholder J.Stout · snap N.Moore+36–13
3rd3:38Tyler Loop·32-yd field goal32-yard field goalholder J.Stout · snap N.Moore+36–16
Ravens ahead 5–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.02Bears: +0.02 expected points added per play
+0.22Ravens: +0.22 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.06Bears: +0.06 expected points added per play
+0.31Ravens: +0.31 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.05Bears: −0.05 expected points added per play
+0.15Ravens: +0.15 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bears ran 62 snaps at a 66% dropback rate against Ravens’s 59 at 42%. Red-zone trips: Bears 3, Ravens 6.
NoteBears outgained Ravens 372-355 but lost the turnover battle 1-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
CHI's early-down pass rate turned over: 36.5% in week 7 against 60.4% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.6 of their own weekly swings across the two.
48 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -34 pts to 17 pts
right on their number · −1.0 vs their 13.0%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (−0.13× that swing) · 25 dropbacks
Ravens9.8%
inside their normal wobble · −4.3 vs their 14.1%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (−0.54× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
NoteBAL's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 48.8%, 19.0 points above their season mean of 29.8% and 1.8 times their own 10.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Ravens attack right, the Bears attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bears←Ravens→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
C.Williams pass−12% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(9:08) 18-C.Williams pass short right intended for 15-R.Odunze INTERCEPTED by 2-N.Wiggins at CHI 18. 2-N.Wiggins ran ob at CHI 9 for 9 yards (84-C.Loveland).
Q4 9:08 · Bears · 2nd & 10 at CHI 4 · gained nothing · -4.29 EP · −11.8% win probability
158 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 170 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 158 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 165. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was CHI moving 83 yards from the CHI 17 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BAL attacks right, CHI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
170 of 170 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
170
EPA per play
+0.13
Success rate
49%
Yards
727
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Bears1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR44+0.1177%
Ravens1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR21+0.3348%
Ravens1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR19+0.0737%
Ravens2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR9+0.1122%
Bears1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8-0.4925%
Ravens1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR5-0.4380%
Ravens2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR5+1.1020%
Bears1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Bears0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR3——
Bears1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
Bears1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
170 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
170 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter35 plays
Bears3Ravens0
Field goal15 plays, from the Bears 22 to the Ravens 3
Punt5 plays, from the Ravens 28 to the Ravens 36
Bears6Ravens0
Field goal12 plays, from the Bears 17 to the Ravens 22
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter46 plays
Bears6Ravens6
Bears6Ravens7
Touchdown14 plays, from the Ravens 38 to the Bears 2
Punt6 plays, from the Ravens 47 to the Ravens 46
Bears6Ravens10
Field goal15 plays, from the Ravens 22 to the Bears 14
No good10 plays, from the Bears 28 to the Ravens 39
3rd quarter32 plays
Bears6Ravens13
Field goal9 plays, from the Ravens 34 to the Bears 10
Punt5 plays, from the Bears 28 to the Bears 35
Bears6Ravens16
Field goal10 plays, from the Ravens 10 to the Bears 14
The period ended8 plays, from the Bears 17 to the Ravens 34
4th quarter57 plays
Bears12Ravens16
Bears13Ravens16
Touchdown6 plays, from the Ravens 36 to the Ravens 1
Punt8 plays, from the Ravens 44 to the Bears 39
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.2 seconds
Intercepted3 plays
Bears13Ravens22
Bears13Ravens23
Touchdown3 plays
Bears16Ravens23
Field goal11 plays, from the Bears 22 to the Ravens 30
Bears16Ravens29
Bears16Ravens30
Touchdown16 plays, from the Ravens 34 to the Bears 2
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Bears 35 to the Ravens 1
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Ravens -2.5
Closing total
45.5
Bears moneyline
+124
Ravens moneyline
-148
Ravens closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 14.
Total closed 45.5; the game landed 46 — over by 0.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
M&T Bank Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Cool, 60°F at kickoff; still at 1 mph out of the north; overcast.
Referee
Shawn Smith
Rest
Bears 7 days · Ravens 14 days
Coaches
Ben Johnson vs John Harbaugh
1st · 3:22BAL +6% win prob(3:22) 75-O.Trapilo reported in as eligible. 18-C.Williams pass short right to 15-R.Odunze to BAL 38 for 21 yards (2-N.Wiggins).
2nd · 8:19BAL +6% win prob(8:19) (No Huddle) 22-D.Henry left end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
