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polling · 1800s tick · as of 10:10 AM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2025 Week 8 · Sun, Oct 26, 2025 · Gillette Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2025 Week 8
It turned at Q2 13:12, 3rd and 9, on Carson Schwesinger — 11.1 win-probability points to the Browns on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
New England Patriots 32–13 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 13:12, Browns +11.1% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 13:12 · 3rd and 9
Carson Schwesinger
Browns
(13:12) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short middle intended for 8-S.Diggs INTERCEPTED by 49-C.Schwesinger at NE 41. 49-C.Schwesinger to NE 34 for 7 yards (8-S.Diggs).
11.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Explosive plays
Patriots won this one — 11 chunk plays, against Browns at 4 chunk plays.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Patriots won this one — 48% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Browns at 28% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Patriots won this one — +0.29 expected points per dropback, against Browns at -0.51 expected points per dropback.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Patriots won this one — +0.07 expected points per snap, against Browns at -0.35 expected points per snap.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 8.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 24 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Browns.
(13:12) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short middle intended for 8-S.Diggs INTERCEPTED by 49-C.Schwesinger at NE 41. 49-C.Schwesinger to NE 34 for 7 yards (8-S.Diggs).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Andy Borregales's 42-yard field goal with 0:02 left in the 2nd put New England Patriots ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Andy Borregales42-yd field goal42-yard field goalholder B.Baringer · snap J.AshbyLead never changed again+37–9
David Njoku11-yd TD catch11-yard touchdown catchfrom Dillon Gabriel · two-point no good+613–30Patriotssafetysafetytwo points, and the ball back+213–329 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Brownscategory by categoryPatriots
Patriots ahead 6–1 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Browns, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.51 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Browns ran 53 snaps at a 74% dropback rate against Patriots’s 62 at 55%. Red-zone trips: Browns 3, Patriots 8.
Patriots won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.07 expected points added per play vs -0.35.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
NE's blitz rate sent, 12.8%, was the lowest of the 26 team-games charted in week 8 — 3.4 points clear of the next team along.
39 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.1 points. · −1.4σ from their own normal
NE's sack or hit rate, 5.1%, is past their previous low of 10.3% in week 5 — the lowest of their 8 charted games through week 8.
39 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.1 points. · −1.7σ from their own normal
NE's fourth-and-short go rate, 0.0%, is past their previous low of 25.0% in week 1 — the lowest of their 5 charted games through week 8.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 10 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 33.5 points. · −1.3σ from their own normal
CLE's pass rate over expected turned over: −13.1 pts in week 7 against +3.0 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 3.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
52 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.3 points. · +1.3σ from their own normal
CLE's early-down pass rate turned over: 34.1% in week 7 against 68.4% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.8 of their own weekly swings across the two.
38 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.4 points. · +1.0σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 17 pts
Over Expected room →Browns3.0 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +6.9 vs their -3.9 pts, and they swing ±5.3 week to week (+1.29× that swing) · 52 snaps
Patriots2.1 ptsright on their number · +0.1 vs their 2.0 pts, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (+0.01× that swing) · 62 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 24% to 88%
Tendencies room →Browns68.4%inside their normal wobble · +12.3 vs their 56.1%, and they swing ±12.4 week to week (+0.99× that swing) · 38 early downs
Patriots50.0%right on their number · −4.2 vs their 54.2%, and they swing ±9.2 week to week (−0.45× that swing) · 52 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 2% to 48%
Tendencies room →Browns20.5%right on their number · −2.9 vs their 23.4%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (−0.35× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Patriots26.5%right on their number · +1.6 vs their 24.9%, and they swing ±8.9 week to week (+0.18× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -42% to 128%
Fourth Down room →Browns33.3%right on their number · +0.1 vs their 33.2%, and they swing ±26.8 week to week (+0.01× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
Patriots0.0%leaned — took the kick · −43.0 vs their 43.0%, and they swing ±33.5 week to week (−1.28× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -0% to 57%
Tendencies room →Browns29.4%right on their number · +0.3 vs their 29.1%, and they swing ±10.5 week to week (+0.03× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Patriots12.8%leaned — sat back · −15.4 vs their 28.2%, and they swing ±11.1 week to week (−1.38× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 41%
Tendencies room →Browns23.5%inside their normal wobble · +4.4 vs their 19.1%, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (+0.52× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Patriots5.1%leaned — stayed blocked · −10.4 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (−1.70× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
NE's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 5.1%, 10.4 points below their season mean of 15.5% and 1.7 times their own 6.1-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Cleveland Browns
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
New England Patriots
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · NE
18/24, 282 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT
6.4 expected points added · +18.7% completion over expected
Passing · CLE
21/35, 156 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT
-19.8 expected points added · -5.3% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Drake Maye banked 9.0 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake MayeQB · Starter QB | 26.3 | +9.0 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 18/24, 282 yd, 3 TD, 1 INT · 7 car, 50 yd |
| Harold Fannin Jr.TE · Featured Receiver | 18.4 | +5.1 | 74% | 74% | 24% | 25% | 1 car, 2 yd · 6/8, 62 yd, 1 TD |
| Kayshon BoutteWR · Featured Receiver | 16.5 | +6.7 | 74% | 91% | 22% | 38% | 3/5, 75 yd, 1 TD |
| Mack HollinsWR · Alpha Receiver | 15.9 | +4.8 | 72% | 71% | 30% | 22% | 7/7, 89 yd |
| David NjokuTE · Rotational Receiver | 13.7 | +5.2 | 59% | 62% | 15% | 14% | 4/5, 37 yd, 1 TD |
| Dillon GabrielQB · Starter QB | 11.5 | −3.7 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 21/35, 156 yd, 2 TD, 2 INT · 1 car, 13 yd |
| Stefon DiggsWR · Featured Receiver | 10.4 | −1.4 | 51% | 65% | 22% | 6% | 3/5, 14 yd, 1 TD |
| Dylan SampsonRB · Receiving Back | 7.9 | −2.1 | 46% | 54% | 18% | 1% | 3 car, 0 yd · 5/6, 29 yd |
| Hunter HenryTE · Rotational Receiver | 7.7 | +5.4 | 76% | 88% | 4% | 0% | 1/1, 7 yd, 1 TD |
| Rhamondre StevensonRB · Committee Back | 5.9 | −6.7 | 74% | 88% | 9% | 16% | 14 car, 34 yd · 1/2, 15 yd |
| Austin HooperTE · Rotational Receiver | 5.8 | +2.3 | 57% | 41% | 9% | 9% | 2/2, 38 yd |
| DeMario DouglasWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.7 | +2.5 | 21% | 26% | 4% | 9% | 2 car, 3 yd · 1/1, 44 yd |
| TreVeyon HendersonRB | 5.5 | −0.7 | 21% | 12% | 0% | — | 10 car, 75 yd |
| Jamari ThrashWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.1 | +1.2 | 44% | 51% | 9% | 6% | 2/3, 31 yd |
| Quinshon JudkinsRB · Committee Back | 4.7 | −3.4 | 33% | 21% | 9% | 0% | 9 car, 19 yd · 3/3, -2 yd |
| Malachi CorleyWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.1 | +2.4 | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Terrell JenningsRB | 1.5 | +0.8 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Jerome FordRB | 0.9 | −1.9 | 24% | 28% | 6% | 1% | 1/2, -1 yd |
| Gage LarvadainWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.3 | −0.5 | 52% | 56% | 0% | — | 1 car, 3 yd |
| Isaiah BondWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −6.8 | 54% | 49% | 12% | 47% | 0/4, 0 yd |
| Jerry JeudyWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −4.8 | 83% | 85% | 6% | 10% | 0/2, 0 yd |
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Patriots attack right, the Browns attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(7:19) (Shotgun) 8-D.Gabriel pass short left to 44-H.Fannin to CLE 48 for 19 yards (15-M.Mapu; 31-C.Woodson).
Q1 7:19 · Browns · 3rd & 11 at CLE 29 · gained 19 · +2.79 EP · +10.1% win probability
150 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 162 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 150 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 157. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
8 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was NE moving 81 yards from the NE 19 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NE attacks right, CLE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
162 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
162 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Browns0
Patriots3How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
Browns6Patriots3Browns7Patriots3Browns7Patriots6Browns7Patriots9Browns7Patriots15Browns7Patriots16Browns7Patriots22Browns7Patriots23Browns7Patriots29Browns7Patriots30Browns13Patriots30Browns13Patriots32Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Browns at Patriots, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dillon Gabriel | 21/35 | 156 | 2 | 2 | 1 | −19.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malachi Corley | 1 | 31 | 31.0 | 0 | +2.6 |
| Quinshon Judkins | 9 | 19 | 2.1 | 0 | −2.6 |
| Dillon Gabriel |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harold Fannin Jr. | 6 | 8 | 62 | 1 | 24% | −0.3 |
| David Njoku | 4 | 5 | 37 | 1 | 15% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronnie Hickman Jr. | 1 | 7 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Myles Garrett | 6 | 0 | 5.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyson Campbell |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Maye | 18/24 | 282 | 3 | 1 | 6 | +6.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2025_08_CLE_NE
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Patriots closed -7 and covered, winning by 19.
Total closed 40.5; the game landed 45 — over by 4.5.
Conditions and crew
| 1 |
| 13 |
| 13.0 |
| 0 |
| +0.8 |
| Gage Larvadain | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | −0.8 |
| Harold Fannin Jr. | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | +2.3 |
| Dylan Sampson | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | −0.9 |
| −3.1 |
| Jamari Thrash | 2 | 3 | 31 | 0 | 9% | +1.3 |
| Dylan Sampson | 5 | 6 | 29 | 0 | 18% | −0.2 |
| Jerry Jeudy | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6% | −4.3 |
| Isaiah Bond | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 12% | −6.0 |
| Jerome Ford | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 6% | −1.5 |
| Quinshon Judkins | 3 | 3 | -2 | 0 | 9% | −2.8 |
| 2 |
| 3 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Mohamoud Diabate | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Carson Schwesinger | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Denzel Ward | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Devin Bush | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Cameron Thomas | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dom Jones | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rayshawn Jenkins | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| TreVeyon Henderson | 10 | 75 | 7.5 | 0 | −0.7 |
| Drake Maye | 7 | 50 | 7.1 | 0 | −1.0 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 14 | 34 | 2.4 | 0 | −5.3 |
| Terrell Jennings | 2 | 15 | 7.5 | 0 | +1.1 |
| DeMario Douglas | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 | −0.2 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mack Hollins | 7 | 7 | 89 | 0 | 30% | +5.2 |
| Kayshon Boutte | 3 | 5 | 75 | 1 | 22% | +4.0 |
| DeMario Douglas | 1 | 1 | 44 | 0 | 4% | +2.9 |
| Austin Hooper | 2 | 2 | 38 | 0 | 9% | +2.7 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 9% | +1.8 |
| Stefon Diggs | 3 | 5 | 14 | 1 | 22% | −2.8 |
| Hunter Henry | 1 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 4% | +1.3 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Spillane | 5 | 9 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Marcus Jones | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Jaylinn Hawkins | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Jahlani Tavai | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Gonzalez | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Carlton Davis III | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Khyiris Tonga | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Terrell Jennings | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Stefon Diggs | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Milton Williams | 0 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
