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Cleveland Browns 13 at New England Patriots 32. Final.
Patriots -7 ✓O 40.5 ✓
The verdict · 2025 Week 8
New England Patriots 32, Browns 13 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q2 13:12, 3rd and 9, on Carson Schwesinger — 11.1 win-probability points to the Browns on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 13:12 · 3rd and 9
Carson Schwesinger
Browns
(13:12) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short middle intended for 8-S.Diggs INTERCEPTED by 49-C.Schwesinger at NE 41. 49-C.Schwesinger to NE 34 for 7 yards (8-S.Diggs).
Patriots closed -7 and covered, winning by 19.
New England Patriots 32–13 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 13:12, Browns +11.1% win probability on one snap.
11.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Malachi CorleyBrownsQ1 5:52(5:52) 83-M.Corley left end pushed ob at NE 18 for 31 yards (25-M.Jones).
9.0pts
Andre SzmytPatriotsQ2 11:26(11:26) 25-A.Szmyt 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.
8.9pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Patriots won this one — 11 chunk plays, against Browns at 4 chunk plays.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Patriots won this one — 48% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Browns at 28% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Patriots won this one — +0.29 expected points per dropback, against Browns at -0.51 expected points per dropback.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Patriots won this one — +0.07 expected points per snap, against Browns at -0.35 expected points per snap.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 8.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 24 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Browns.
MarketModelmodel higher on Patriotshigher on Browns152 of 162 plays carry both curves
(13:12) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short middle intended for 8-S.Diggs INTERCEPTED by 49-C.Schwesinger at NE 41. 49-C.Schwesinger to NE 34 for 7 yards (8-S.Diggs).
Swing −11.1 for PatriotsExpected points −4.36 for PatriotsThe model had Browns 20 points higher than the market did.play 39
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 13:12CLE +11% win prob(13:12) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short middle intended for 8-S.Diggs INTERCEPTED by 49-C.Schwesinger at NE 41. 49-C.Schwesinger to NE 34 for 7 yards (8-S.Diggs).
1st · 5:52NE +9% win prob(5:52) 83-M.Corley left end pushed ob at NE 18 for 31 yards (25-M.Jones).
2nd · 11:26CLE +9% win prob(11:26) 25-A.Szmyt 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.
2nd · 1:16NE +8% win prob(1:16) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep right to 3-D.Douglas to CLE 32 for 44 yards (9-G.Delpit).
2nd · 8:25CLE +7% win prob(8:25) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye sacked at CLE 14 for -7 yards (95-M.Garrett).
2nd · 4:15NE +6% win prob(4:15) 8-D.Gabriel pass short left to 80-J.Thrash to CLE 41 for 21 yards (21-J.Hawkins) [97-M.Williams].
1st · 3:09
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Andy Borregales's 42-yard field goal with 0:02 left in the 2nd put New England Patriots ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Lead
1st8:49Andy Borregales·36-yd field goal36-yard field goalholder B.Baringer · snap J.Ashby+30–3
4th9:28David Njoku·11-yd TD catch11-yard touchdown catchfrom Dillon Gabrielfrom Dillon Gabriel · two-point no good+613–30
4th4:11Patriots·safetysafetytwo points, and the ball backtwo points, and the ball back+213–32
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Brownscategory by categoryPatriots
Browns1–6Patriots
213Total yards425
4.0Yards per play6.9
28%Success rate48%
18%Third-down rate30%
2Red-zone touchdowns2
4Explosive plays11
12First downs21
1Sacks taken6
2Turnovers2
The read
Patriots ahead 6–1 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Browns, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.51 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.35Browns: −0.35 expected points added per play
+0.07Patriots: +0.07 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.51Browns: −0.51 expected points added per play
+0.29Patriots: +0.29 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.10Browns: +0.10 expected points added per play
−0.19Patriots: −0.19 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Browns ran 53 snaps at a 74% dropback rate against Patriots’s 62 at 55%. Red-zone trips: Browns 3, Patriots 8.
NotePatriots won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.07 expected points added per play vs -0.35.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
NE's blitz rate sent, 12.8%, was the lowest of the 26 team-games charted in week 8 — 3.4 points clear of the next team along.
39 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.1 points.
CLE's pass rate over expected turned over: −13.1 pts in week 7 against +3.0 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 3.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
52 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.3 points.
CLE's early-down pass rate turned over: 34.1% in week 7 against 68.4% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.8 of their own weekly swings across the two.
38 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 17 pts
inside their normal wobble · +4.4 vs their 19.1%, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (+0.52× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Patriots5.1%
leaned — stayed blocked · −10.4 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (−1.70× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
NoteNE's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 5.1%, 10.4 points below their season mean of 15.5% and 1.7 times their own 6.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Patriots attack right, the Browns attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Browns←Patriots→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Gabriel pass+10% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(7:19) (Shotgun) 8-D.Gabriel pass short left to 44-H.Fannin to CLE 48 for 19 yards (15-M.Mapu; 31-C.Woodson).
Q1 7:19 · Browns · 3rd & 11 at CLE 29 · gained 19 · +2.79 EP · +10.1% win probability
150 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 162 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 150 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 157. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was NE moving 81 yards from the NE 19 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NE attacks right, CLE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
162 of 162 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
162
EPA per play
-0.13
Success rate
40%
Yards
635
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Patriots1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR30-0.0963%
Browns1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR25-0.4968%
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR20-0.1075%
Patriots1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR17+0.0159%
Patriots2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR12+0.388%
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Browns2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Patriots2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Browns0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
162 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
162 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter35 plays
Browns0Patriots3
Field goal13 plays, from the Patriots 28 to the Browns 4
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runDragCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.8 seconds
Browns6Patriots3
Browns7Patriots3
Touchdown8 plays, from the Browns 30 to the Patriots 18
Punt5 plays, from the Patriots 32 to the Patriots 41
Punt5 plays, from the Browns 34 to the Browns 48
The period ended3 plays, from the Patriots 15 to the Patriots 30
2nd quarter44 plays
Intercepted4 plays, from the Patriots 37 to the Patriots 45
No good4 plays, from the Patriots 34 to the Patriots 29
Browns7Patriots6
Field goal7 plays, from the Patriots 37 to the Browns 7
Punt5 plays, from the Browns 24 to the Browns 30
Punt5 plays, from the Patriots 34 to the Patriots 43
Punt5 plays, from the Browns 20 to the Browns 41
Browns7Patriots9
Field goal13 plays, from the Patriots 17 to the Browns 24
3rd quarter43 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Browns 31 to the Browns 32
Browns7Patriots15
Browns7Patriots16
Touchdown8 plays, from the Patriots 23 to the Browns 7
Intercepted4 plays, from the Browns 30 to the Browns 33
Browns7Patriots22
Browns7Patriots23
Touchdown4 plays, from the Browns 6 to the Browns 1
Intercepted6 plays, from the Browns 15 to the Browns 26
Browns7Patriots29
Browns7Patriots30
Touchdown8 plays, from the Patriots 19 to the Browns 39
The period ended8 plays, from the Browns 31 to the Browns 40
4th quarter40 plays
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Browns 49 to the Patriots 7
Punt4 plays
Browns13Patriots30
Touchdown4 plays, from the Patriots 26 to the Patriots 11
Fumble lost10 plays, from the Browns 44 to the Browns 9
Browns13Patriots32
Drive ended2 plays, from the Browns 1 to the Browns 2
Turnover on downs5 plays
The period ended6 plays, from the Browns 34 to the Browns 19
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
