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2025 Week 8 · Sun, Oct 26, 2025 · Empower Field at Mile High

Dallas Cowboys

24

Denver BroncosWinner

44

DEN -3.5 ✓O 51.5 ✓

Denver Broncos 44–24 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 8:21, DEN +12% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3DEN ↑DAL ↓
Q1 · 8:21DAL 3 — DEN 6DEN ball · 2nd & 10DEN 54%

(8:21) 12-R.Harvey left end for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q1 · 8:21DEN +12% win prob(8:21) 12-R.Harvey left end for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  2. Q1 · 13:44DAL +9% win prob(13:44) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right intended for 13-P.Bryant INTERCEPTED by 25-T.Bridges at DAL 41. 25-T.Bridges to DAL 48 for 7 yards (13-P.Bryant). Penalty on DEN-63-A.Palczewski, Ineligible Downfield Pass, declined.
  3. Q1 · 9:07DEN +8% win prob(9:07) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short middle to 11-T.Franklin to DAL 40 for 26 yards (38-A.Clark).
  4. Q1 · 11:47DEN +6% win prob(11:47) 4-D.Prescott pass deep left to 88-C.Lamb to DEN 3 for 29 yards (21-R.Moss) [99-Z.Allen].

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 10:36DAL Field goal

    (10:36) 17-B.Aubrey 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

    Score after this play: DAL 3 — DEN 0
  2. Q1 · 8:21DEN Touchdown

    (8:21) 12-R.Harvey left end for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DAL 3 — DEN 7
  3. Q1 · 3:10DEN Touchdown

    (3:10) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass deep middle to 11-T.Franklin for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DAL 3 — DEN 14
  4. Q2 · 7:32DAL Touchdown

    (7:32) 33-J.Williams left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DAL 10 — DEN 14
  5. Q2 · 3:51DEN Touchdown

    (3:51) (Shotgun) 76-C.Throckmorton reported in as eligible. Direct snap to 12-R.Harvey. 12-R.Harvey up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on DAL-54-S.Williams, Unnecessary Roughness, 1 yard, enforced between downs.

    Score after this play: DAL 10 — DEN 20
  6. Q2 · 0:44DEN Touchdown

    (:44) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass deep left to 13-P.Bryant for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on DAL-97-O.Odighizuwa, Defensive Offside, declined. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DAL 10 — DEN 27
  7. Q3 · 8:14DAL Touchdown

    (8:14) 33-J.Williams up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DAL 17 — DEN 27
  8. Q3 · 6:06DEN Field goal

    (6:06) 3-W.Lutz 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.

    Score after this play: DAL 17 — DEN 30
  9. Q4 · 12:54DEN Touchdown

    (12:54) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short left to 11-T.Franklin for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DAL 17 — DEN 37
  10. Q4 · 7:18DEN Touchdown

    (7:18) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 12-R.Harvey for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DAL 17 — DEN 44
  11. Q4 · 4:50DAL Touchdown

    (4:50) (Shotgun) 10-J.Milton pass deep right to 1-J.Tolbert for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DAL 24 — DEN 44

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricCowboysBroncos
Offensive plays6856
Total yards339428 (edge)
Yards per play5.07.6 (edge)
Expected points added / play0.060.37 (edge)
Success rate50%55% (edge)
Dropback rate62%54%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.090.47 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.010.25 (edge)
Third downs4/115/8 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)39 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps2024 (edge)
Sacks taken20 (edge)
Turnovers21 (edge)

Broncos won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.37 expected points added per play vs 0.06.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · DEN

Bo NixQB

19/29, 247 yds, 4 TD, 1 INT

14.1 expected points added · +9.0% completion over expected

Passing · DAL

Dak PrescottQB

19/31, 188 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT

-4.4 expected points added · -3.0% completion over expected

Rushing · DEN

J.K. DobbinsRB

15 att, 111 yds, 0 TD

3.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · DEN

RJ HarveyRB

7 att, 46 yds, 2 TD

2.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · DEN

Troy FranklinWR

6/8 for 89 yds, 2 TD

30% of team targets · 8.6 expected points added

Receiving · DAL

George PickensWR

7/9 for 78 yds, 0 TD

26% of team targets · 7.9 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1DENDEN 284181:25Interception
2DALDAL 488513:01Field goal +3
3DENDEN 267692:21Touchdown +7
4DALDAL 275-32:30Punt
5DENDEN 385722:39Touchdown +7
6DALDAL 349243:15Punt
7DENDEN 10421:05Punt
8DALDAL 4112586:15Touchdown +7
9DENDEN 358323:42Touchdown +6
10DALDAL 20591:33Punt
11DENDEN 288721:35Touchdown +7
12DALDAL 354130:25Interception
13DENDEN 22100:14End of half
14DALDAL 3515656:50Touchdown +7
15DENDAL 466322:08Field goal +3
16DALDAL 35742:44Punt
17DENDEN 1613845:30Touchdown +7
18DALDAL 288492:33Interception
19DENDEN 459383:01Touchdown +7
20DALDAL 358652:30Touchdown +7
21DENDEN 29592:20Punt
22DALDAL 29441:56Punt
23DENDEN 9100:28End of game

11 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Broncos gained 84 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Dallas Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Dak Prescott19/31188022-4.4
Joe Milton III3/4581005.7

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Javonte Williams13413.221.9
Dak Prescott6315.202.4
Jaydon Blue8293.60-1.4
Malik Davis231.50-0.7
CeeDee Lamb122.00-0.2
Hunter Luepke122.000.6

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
George Pickens7978026%7.9
CeeDee Lamb71074029%-4.8
Jalen Tolbert224716%5.5
Luke Schoonmaker232509%1.7
Brevyn Spann-Ford11903%0.7
Javonte Williams12806%-0.2
Ryan Flournoy12706%-0.6
Jake Ferguson01003%-0.7
KaVontae Turpin15-2014%-4.7

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
DaRon Bland340.000
Kenneth Murray, Jr.340.000
Alijah Clark420.000
Reddy Steward410.000
Trikweze Bridges400.012
Shemar James130.000
Markquese Bell310.000
Kaiir Elam210.000
Damone Clark110.000
Jadeveon Clowney110.000

Denver Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Bo Nix19/2924741014.1

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
J.K. Dobbins151117.403.2
RJ Harvey7466.622.7
Marvin Mims Jr.3186.001.0
Tyler Badie166.00-0.5
Bo Nix1-1-1.000.0
Jarrett Stidham1-1-1.000.0

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Troy Franklin6889230%8.6
Courtland Sutton4667022%3.6
Pat Bryant2440115%-1.6
Evan Engram4436015%3.4
J.K. Dobbins221007%0.2
RJ Harvey11514%2.7
Marvin Mims Jr.01004%-0.5
Nate Adkins01004%-0.9

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Alex Singleton290.000
Kris Abrams-Draine540.000
Talanoa Hufanga250.000
Brandon Jones330.001
Riley Moss330.004
Pat Surtain II410.001
Jonathon Cooper040.002
Justin Strnad120.000
Dondrea Tillman030.011
Pat Bryant110.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
DEN -3.5
Closing total
51.5
DAL moneyline
+160
DEN moneyline
-192

Broncos closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 20.

Total closed 51.5; the game landed 68 — over by 16.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Empower Field at Mile High
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
67°F, wind 4 mph
Referee
Carl Cheffers
Rest
DAL 7 days · DEN 7 days
Coaches
Brian Schottenheimer vs Sean Payton