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2025 Week 8 · Sun, Oct 26, 2025 · Empower Field at Mile High
Final
CowboysDallas24
BY 20final margin
BroncosDenver44
Dallas Cowboys 24 at Denver Broncos 44. Final.
Broncos -3.5 ✓O 51.5 ✓
The verdict · 2025 Week 8
Denver Broncos 44, Cowboys 24 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 8:21, 2nd and 10, on RJ Harvey — 12.2 win-probability points to the Broncos on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 8:21 · 2nd and 10
RJ Harvey
Broncos
(8:21) 12-R.Harvey left end for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Broncos closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 20.
Denver Broncos 44–24 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 8:21, Broncos +12.2% win probability on one snap.
12.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Trikweze BridgesCowboysQ1 13:44(13:44) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right intended for 13-P.Bryant INTERCEPTED by 25-T.Bridges at DAL 41. 25-T.Bridges to DAL 48 for 7 yards (13-P.Bryant). Penalty on DEN-63-A.Palczewski, Ineligible Downfield Pass, declined.
8.7pts
Troy FranklinBroncosQ1 9:07(9:07) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short middle to 11-T.Franklin to DAL 40 for 26 yards (38-A.Clark).
8.0pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Broncos won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Cowboys at 3 chunk plays.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Broncos won this one — 5 of 8 on third down, against Cowboys at 4 of 11 on third down.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Broncos won this one — +0.37 expected points per snap, against Cowboys at +0.06 expected points per snap.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Broncos won this one — +0.47 expected points per dropback, against Cowboys at +0.09 expected points per dropback.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 10 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Cowboys.
MarketModelmodel higher on Broncoshigher on Cowboys172 of 183 plays carry both curves
(8:21) 12-R.Harvey left end for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +12.2 for BroncosExpected points +3.91 for BroncosThe model had Cowboys 4 points higher than the market did.play 21
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 8:21DEN +12% win prob(8:21) 12-R.Harvey left end for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 13:44DAL +9% win prob(13:44) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right intended for 13-P.Bryant INTERCEPTED by 25-T.Bridges at DAL 41. 25-T.Bridges to DAL 48 for 7 yards (13-P.Bryant). Penalty on DEN-63-A.Palczewski, Ineligible Downfield Pass, declined.
1st · 9:07DEN +8% win prob(9:07) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short middle to 11-T.Franklin to DAL 40 for 26 yards (38-A.Clark).
1st · 11:47DEN +6% win prob(11:47) 4-D.Prescott pass deep left to 88-C.Lamb to DEN 3 for 29 yards (21-R.Moss) [99-Z.Allen].
1st · 5:07DEN +6% win prob(5:07) 27-J.Dobbins right tackle to DAL 25 for 21 yards (38-A.Clark).
1st · 3:10DEN +6% win prob(3:10) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass deep middle to 11-T.Franklin for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 6:37
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
RJ Harvey's 40-yard rushing touchdown with 8:21 left in the 1st put Denver Broncos ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 9 scores that followed.
Lead
1st10:36Brandon Aubrey·24-yd field goal24-yard field goalholder B.Anger · snap T.Sieg+33–0
1st8:21RJ Harvey·40-yd TD run40-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+73–7
1st3:10Troy Franklin·25-yd TD catch25-yard touchdown catchfrom Bo Nixfrom Bo Nix+73–14
3rd6:06Wil Lutz·42-yd field goal42-yard field goalholder J.Crawshaw · snap M.Fraboni+317–30
4th12:54Troy Franklin·7-yd TD catch7-yard touchdown catchfrom Bo Nixfrom Bo Nix+717–37
4th7:18RJ Harvey·5-yd TD catch5-yard touchdown catchfrom Bo Nixfrom Bo Nix+717–44
4th4:50Jalen Tolbert·35-yd TD catch35-yard touchdown catchfrom Joe Milton IIIfrom Joe Milton III+724–44
11 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Cowboyscategory by categoryBroncos
Cowboys0–9Broncos
339Total yards428
5.0Yards per play7.6
50%Success rate55%
36%Third-down rate63%
2Red-zone touchdowns3
3Explosive plays9
20First downs24
2Sacks taken0
2Turnovers1
The read
Broncos ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.47 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.06Cowboys: +0.06 expected points added per play
+0.37Broncos: +0.37 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.09Cowboys: +0.09 expected points added per play
+0.47Broncos: +0.47 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.01Cowboys: −0.01 expected points added per play
+0.25Broncos: +0.25 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Cowboys ran 68 snaps at a 62% dropback rate against Broncos’s 56 at 54%. Red-zone trips: Cowboys 5, Broncos 7.
NoteBroncos won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.37 expected points added per play vs 0.06.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
DEN's early-down pass rate turned over: 65.0% in week 7 against 48.9% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
47 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -13 pts to 13 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −13.1 vs their 16.5%, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (−1.72× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Broncos19.0%
right on their number · −3.4 vs their 22.5%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (−0.39× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
NoteDAL's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 3.3%, 13.1 points below their season mean of 16.5% and 1.7 times their own 7.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Dallas Cowboys
48 dressed · 6 inactive
78Terence SteeleT · Every snap100%74 snaps
67Brock HoffmanC · Every snap100%74 snaps
52Tyler BookerG · Every snap100%74 snaps
60Tyler GuytonT · Full-time96%71 snaps
73Tyler SmithG · Full-time88%65 snaps
4Dak PrescottQB · Full-time88%65 snaps
3George PickensWR · Full-time80%59 snaps
33Javonte WilliamsRB · Heavy rotation72%53 snaps
88CeeDee LambWR · Heavy rotation72%53 snaps
87Jake FergusonTE · Heavy rotation59%44 snaps
19Ryan FlournoyWR · Rotational46%34 snaps
9KaVontae TurpinWR · Rotational41%30 snaps
86Luke SchoonmakerTE · Rotational39%29 snaps
89Brevyn Spann-FordTE · Rotational31%23 snaps
1Jalen TolbertWR · Situational19%14 snaps
23Jaydon BlueRB · Situational19%14 snaps
40Hunter LuepkeFB · Situational18%13 snaps
66TJ BassG · Situational12%9 snaps
10Joe Milton IIIQB · Situational12%9 snaps
43Malik DavisRB · Situational5%4 snaps
75Hakeem AdenijiT · Situational4%3 snaps
Inactive · 6
Jay ToiaDTJuanyeh ThomasFSDonovan WilsonFSJack SanbornMLBAjani CorneliusTJonathan MingoWR
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Broncos attack right, the Cowboys attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Cowboys←Broncos→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
B.Nix pass−13% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(13:44) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right intended for 13-P.Bryant INTERCEPTED by 25-T.Bridges at DAL 41. 25-T.Bridges to DAL 48 for 7 yards (13-P.Bryant). Penalty on DEN-63-A.Palczewski, Ineligible Downfield Pass, declined.
Q1 13:44 · Broncos · 1st & 10 at DEN 46 · gained nothing · -5.31 EP · −12.8% win probability
170 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 183 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 170 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 178. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
11 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was DEN moving 84 yards from the DEN 16 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DEN attacks right, DAL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
183 of 183 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
183
EPA per play
+0.18
Success rate
55%
Yards
765
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Cowboys1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR41+0.1759%
Broncos1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR39+0.4559%
Cowboys1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR17+0.1953%
Cowboys2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6-1.3667%
Broncos1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6+0.4383%
Broncos2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Cowboys2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Broncos0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR2——
Broncos2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Broncos1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Broncos2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Broncos1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Cowboys2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Broncos1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
183 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
183 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter44 plays
How the play was built
A run-pass option, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Intercepted4 plays, from the Broncos 28 to the Broncos 46
Cowboys3Broncos0
Field goal9 plays, from the Cowboys 48 to the Broncos 1
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Cowboys3Broncos6
Cowboys3Broncos7
Touchdown8 plays, from the Broncos 26 to the Cowboys 40
Punt6 plays, from the Cowboys 27 to the Cowboys 32
Cowboys3Broncos13
Cowboys3Broncos14
Touchdown6 plays, from the Broncos 38 to the Cowboys 15
The period ended10 plays, from the Cowboys 34 to the Broncos 42
2nd quarter53 plays
Punt2 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Broncos 10 to the Broncos 12
Cowboys9Broncos14
Cowboys10Broncos14
Touchdown15 plays, from the Cowboys 41 to the Broncos 1
Cowboys10Broncos20
Touchdown10 plays, from the Broncos 35 to the Cowboys 1
Punt5 plays, from the Cowboys 20 to the Cowboys 29
Cowboys10Broncos26
Cowboys10Broncos27
Touchdown9 plays, from the Broncos 28 to the Cowboys 24
The period ended6 plays, from the Cowboys 35 to the Cowboys 48
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter38 plays
Cowboys16Broncos27
Cowboys17Broncos27
Touchdown17 plays, from the Cowboys 35 to the Broncos 1
Cowboys17Broncos30
Field goal7 plays, from the Cowboys 46 to the Cowboys 14
Punt8 plays, from the Cowboys 35 to the Cowboys 44
The period ended6 plays, from the Broncos 16 to the Broncos 42
4th quarter48 plays
Cowboys17Broncos36
Cowboys17Broncos37
Touchdown8 plays, from the Broncos 40 to the Cowboys 7
Intercepted8 plays, from the Cowboys 28 to the Broncos 11
Cowboys17Broncos43
Cowboys17Broncos44
Touchdown11 plays, from the Broncos 45 to the Cowboys 5
Cowboys23Broncos44
Cowboys24Broncos44
Touchdown8 plays, from the Cowboys 35 to the Broncos 35
The period ended6 plays, from the Broncos 29 to the Broncos 38
Punt5 plays, from the Cowboys 29 to the Cowboys 33
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Broncos -3.5
Closing total
51.5
Cowboys moneyline
+160
Broncos moneyline
-192
Broncos closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 20.
Total closed 51.5; the game landed 68 — over by 16.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Empower Field at Mile High
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Mild, 71°F at kickoff; still at 3 mph out of the north-east; overcast.
Referee
Carl Cheffers
Rest
Cowboys 7 days · Broncos 7 days
Coaches
Brian Schottenheimer vs Sean Payton
DAL +6% win prob
(6:37) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott sacked at DAL 19 for -13 yards (98-J.Franklin-Myers).
2nd · 6:24DEN +5% win prob(6:24) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete deep middle to 19-M.Mims. PENALTY on DAL-38-A.Clark, Defensive Pass Interference, 32 yards, enforced at DAL 45 - No Play.
