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Green Bay Packers 35 at Pittsburgh Steelers 25. Final.
Packers -3 ✓O 46.5 ✓
The verdict · 2025 Week 8
Green Bay Packers 35, Steelers 25 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q3 0:35, 3rd and 7, on Christian Watson — 14.5 win-probability points to the Packers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 0:35 · 3rd and 7
Christian Watson
Packers
(:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep middle to 9-C.Watson to PIT 7 for 33 yards (26-B.Echols). Penalty on PIT-24-J.Porter, Defensive Holding, declined.
Packers closed -3 and covered, winning by 10.
Green Bay Packers 35–25. Biggest swing: Q3 0:35, Packers +14.5% win probability on one snap.
14.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Roman WilsonSteelersQ1 11:52(11:52) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass deep right to 10-R.Wilson ran ob at GB 28 for 45 yards.
10.2pts
Tucker KraftPackersQ3 12:40(12:40) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep right to 85-T.Kraft to PIT 26 for 59 yards (22-J.Thornhill; 25-D.Elliott) [6-P.Queen]. PIT-25-D.Elliott was injured during the play.
14.0pts
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Packers won this one — +0.59 expected points per dropback, against Steelers at -0.20 expected points per dropback.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Packers won this one — +0.33 expected points per snap, against Steelers at -0.16 expected points per snap.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Packers won this one — 5 of 12 on third down, against Steelers at 1 of 10 on third down.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Packers won this one — no giveaways, against Steelers at 2 giveaways.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 10.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 22 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Steelers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Steelershigher on Packers163 of 173 plays carry both curves
(:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep middle to 9-C.Watson to PIT 7 for 33 yards (26-B.Echols). Penalty on PIT-24-J.Porter, Defensive Holding, declined.
Swing −14.5 for SteelersExpected points −3.42 for SteelersThe model had Steelers 16 points higher than the market did.play 117
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 0:35PIT +15% win prob(:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep middle to 9-C.Watson to PIT 7 for 33 yards (26-B.Echols). Penalty on PIT-24-J.Porter, Defensive Holding, declined.
3rd · 12:40PIT +14% win prob(12:40) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep right to 85-T.Kraft to PIT 26 for 59 yards (22-J.Thornhill; 25-D.Elliott) [6-P.Queen]. PIT-25-D.Elliott was injured during the play.
1st · 11:52PIT +10% win prob(11:52) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass deep right to 10-R.Wilson ran ob at GB 28 for 45 yards.
3rd · 14:12PIT +9% win prob(14:12) 3-C.Waitman punts 51 yards to GB 20, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 87-R.Doubs to GB 23 for 3 yards (46-C.Kuntz). PENALTY on GB-20-J.Bullard, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at GB 20.
3rd · 10:18PIT +8% win prob(10:18) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 85-T.Kraft pushed ob at PIT 10 for 7 yards (24-J.Porter).
4th · 11:04PIT +8% win prob(11:04) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short middle to 85-T.Kraft for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Josh Jacobs's 3-yard rushing touchdown with 15:00 left in the 4th put Green Bay Packers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Lead
1st8:46Chris Boswell·56-yd field goal56-yard field goalholder C.Waitman · snap C.Kuntz+30–3
1st5:12Tucker Kraft·16-yd TD catch16-yard touchdown catchfrom Jordan Lovefrom Jordan Love+77–3
2nd12:23Chris Boswell·50-yd field goal50-yard field goalholder C.Waitman · snap C.Kuntz+37–6
2nd5:56Chris Boswell·48-yd field goal48-yard field goalholder C.Waitman · snap C.Kuntz+37–9
Packers ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.59 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.33Packers: +0.33 expected points added per play
−0.16Steelers: −0.16 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.59Packers: +0.59 expected points added per play
−0.20Steelers: −0.20 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.06Packers: −0.06 expected points added per play
−0.07Steelers: −0.07 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Packers ran 63 snaps at a 60% dropback rate against Steelers’s 58 at 69%. Red-zone trips: Packers 6, Steelers 2.
NotePackers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.33 expected points added per play vs -0.16.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 8Against their seasonOver Expected
GB's pass rate over expected, +6.7 pts, is past their previous high of +0.8 pts in week 7 — the highest of their 7 charted games through week 8.
62 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.4 points.
PIT's blitz rate sent turned over: 24.5% in week 7 against 50.0% here — they sat back then and sent pressure now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
38 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.2 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -28 pts to 20 pts
right on their number · −3.8 vs their 16.3%, and they swing ±8.2 week to week (−0.46× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Steelers13.2%
right on their number · −2.7 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (−0.37× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
NotePIT's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 50.0%, 12.1 points above their season mean of 37.9% and 1.2 times their own 10.2-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Green Bay Packers
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
74Elgton JenkinsC · Every snap100%64 snaps
10Jordan LoveQB · Every snap100%64 snaps
65Aaron BanksG · Every snap100%64 snaps
50Zach TomT · Full-time98%63 snaps
63Rasheed WalkerT · Full-time97%62 snaps
85Tucker KraftTE · Full-time92%59 snaps
87Romeo DoubsWR · Full-time80%51 snaps
0Matthew GoldenWR · Heavy rotation66%42 snaps
9Christian WatsonWR · Heavy rotation56%36 snaps
75Sean RhyanG · Heavy rotation55%35 snaps
8Josh JacobsRB · Heavy rotation53%34 snaps
77Jordan MorganG · Rotational45%29 snaps
23Emanuel WilsonRB · Rotational42%27 snaps
86John FitzPatrickTE · Rotational34%22 snaps
18Malik HeathWR · Rotational33%21 snaps
83Savion WilliamsWR · Situational19%12 snaps
88Luke MusgraveTE · Situational19%12 snaps
30Chris BrooksRB · Situational5%3 snaps
71Anthony BeltonT · Situational3%2 snaps
16Bo MeltonCB · Situational2%1 snap
70Darian KinnardT · Situational2%1 snap
Inactive · 6
Jacob MonkCLukas Van NessDEWarren BrinsonDTDonovan JenningsGLucas HavrisikKDontayvion WicksWR
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Steelers attack right, the Packers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Packers←Steelers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Love pass+16% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep middle to 9-C.Watson to PIT 7 for 33 yards (26-B.Echols). Penalty on PIT-24-J.Porter, Defensive Holding, declined.
Q3 0:35 · Packers · 3rd & 7 at PIT 40 · gained 33 · +3.42 EP · +16.4% win probability
161 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 173 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 161 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 168. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
12 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was GB moving 90 yards from the GB 10 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PIT attacks right, GB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
173 of 173 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
173
EPA per play
+0.09
Success rate
44%
Yards
751
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Packers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR36+0.3467%
Steelers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR30-0.0377%
Packers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR25+0.3648%
Steelers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14-0.5064%
Steelers1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7+0.1443%
Steelers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR6-0.2167%
Packers1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Packers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Steelers1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
173 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
173 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter35 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Packers 20 to the Packers 29
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.1 seconds
Packers0Steelers3
Field goal8 plays, from the Steelers 20 to the Packers 23
Packers6Steelers3
Packers7Steelers3
Touchdown8 plays, from the Packers 33 to the Steelers 16
Punt6 plays, from the Steelers 35 to the Steelers 37
The period ended7 plays, from the Packers 18 to the Steelers 38
2nd quarter49 plays
No good2 plays
Packers7Steelers6
Field goal6 plays, from the Steelers 47 to the Packers 32
Punt5 plays, from the Packers 26 to the Packers 27
Packers7Steelers9
Field goal11 plays, from the Steelers 36 to the Packers 24
Punt5 plays, from the Packers 34 to the Packers 41
Packers7Steelers15
Packers7Steelers16
Touchdown11 plays, from the Steelers 16 to the Packers 2
The period ended8 plays, from the Packers 20 to the Steelers 27
3rd quarter35 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Steelers 27 to the Steelers 29
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.9 seconds
Packers13Steelers16
Packers14Steelers16
Touchdown10 plays, from the Packers 10 to the Steelers 8
Packers14Steelers19
Field goal9 plays, from the Steelers 23 to the Packers 38
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.8 seconds
The period ended11 plays, from the Packers 22 to the Steelers 7
4th quarter54 plays
Packers20Steelers19
Packers22Steelers19
Touchdown2 plays
Punt5 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.9 seconds
Packers28Steelers19
Packers29Steelers19
Touchdown5 plays, from the Steelers 45 to the Steelers 24
Punt5 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Steelers 28
Packers32Steelers19
Field goal8 plays, from the Packers 44 to the Steelers 9
Fumble lost3 plays
Packers35Steelers19
Field goal7 plays, from the Steelers 26 to the Steelers 7
Packers35Steelers25
Touchdown12 plays, from the Steelers 30 to the Packers 21
The period ended7 plays, from the Steelers 48 to the Steelers 37
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Packers -3
Closing total
46.5
Packers moneyline
-155
Steelers moneyline
+130
Packers closed -3 and covered, winning by 10.
Total closed 46.5; the game landed 60 — over by 13.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Acrisure Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Cool, 48°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 6 mph out of the north-east; clear.
Referee
Shawn Hochuli
Rest
Packers 7 days · Steelers 10 days
Coaches
Matt LaFleur vs Mike Tomlin
2nd · 1:27PIT +7% win prob(1:27) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep right to 19-C.Austin [56-E.Cooper]. PENALTY on GB-25-K.Nixon, Defensive Pass Interference, 21 yards, enforced at GB 36 - No Play.
2nd · 0:02GB +7% win prob(:02) 17-B.McManus 44 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.
