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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:21 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2025 Week 8 · Sun, Oct 26, 2025 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2025 Week 8
It turned at Q3 10:31, 1st and 10, on Bijan Robinson — 11.6 win-probability points to the Dolphins on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 10:31 · 1st and 10
Bijan Robinson
Dolphins
(10:31) (Shotgun) 7-B.Robinson left end to MIA 16 for 3 yards. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by MIA-25-T.Dodson at MIA 10. 25-T.Dodson to MIA 16 for 6 yards (70-J.Matthews; 65-M.Bergeron). Penalty on ATL-64-R.Neuzil, Offensive Holding, declined.
Miami Dolphins 34–10 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q3 10:31, Dolphins +11.6% win probability on one snap.
11.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Running the ball
Dolphins won this one — +0.08 expected points per carry, against Falcons at -0.66 expected points per carry.
Dolphinsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Dolphins won this one — +0.14 expected points per snap, against Falcons at -0.34 expected points per snap.
Dolphinsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Dolphins won this one — 8 chunk plays, against Falcons at 3 chunk plays.
Dolphinsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Dolphins won this one — 6 of 13 on third down, against Falcons at 2 of 11 on third down.
Dolphinsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 9.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 22 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Dolphins.
(10:31) (Shotgun) 7-B.Robinson left end to MIA 16 for 3 yards. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by MIA-25-T.Dodson at MIA 10. 25-T.Dodson to MIA 16 for 6 yards (70-J.Matthews; 65-M.Bergeron). Penalty on ATL-64-R.Neuzil, Offensive Hold
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
De'Von Achane's 3-yard touchdown catch with 2:38 left in the 1st put Miami Dolphins ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
De'Von Achane3-yd TD catch3-yard touchdown catchfrom Tua TagovailoaLead never changed again+77–08 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Dolphinscategory by categoryFalcons
Dolphins ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.66 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Dolphins ran 65 snaps at a 43% dropback rate against Falcons’s 48 at 67%. Red-zone trips: Dolphins 6, Falcons 2.
Dolphins won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.14 expected points added per play vs -0.34.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
ATL's play-action rate, 3.1%, was the lowest of the 26 team-games charted in week 8 — 5.4 points clear of the next team along.
32 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.8 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 11 pts
Over Expected room →Dolphins-8.7 ptsright on their number · −3.1 vs their -5.6 pts, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (−0.50× that swing) · 65 snaps
Falcons-6.0 ptsright on their number · +0.4 vs their -6.3 pts, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (+0.06× that swing) · 48 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 18% to 84%
Tendencies room →Dolphins44.0%inside their normal wobble · −6.9 vs their 50.9%, and they swing ±12.9 week to week (−0.54× that swing) · 50 early downs
Falcons60.6%inside their normal wobble · +10.1 vs their 50.5%, and they swing ±11.9 week to week (+0.85× that swing) · 33 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -8% to 63%
Tendencies room →Dolphins32.1%right on their number · +2.7 vs their 29.5%, and they swing ±13.2 week to week (+0.20× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
Falcons3.1%leaned — dropped back clean · −17.8 vs their 21.0%, and they swing ±10.8 week to week (−1.65× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -47% to 118%
Fourth Down room →Dolphins66.7%leaned — went for it · +33.5 vs their 33.1%, and they swing ±23.9 week to week (+1.40× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
Falcons50.0%right on their number · +14.2 vs their 35.8%, and they swing ±32.3 week to week (+0.44× that swing) · 6 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 6% to 70%
Tendencies room →Dolphins31.3%inside their normal wobble · −5.5 vs their 36.8%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (−0.64× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
Falcons50.0%inside their normal wobble · +12.3 vs their 37.7%, and they swing ±12.5 week to week (+0.98× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -0% to 29%
Tendencies room →Dolphins12.5%right on their number · −0.3 vs their 12.8%, and they swing ±4.4 week to week (−0.07× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
Falcons7.1%leaned — stayed blocked · −7.3 vs their 14.5%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (−1.27× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
ATL's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 3.1%, 17.8 points below their season mean of 21.0% and 1.7 times their own 10.8-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Miami Dolphins
48 dressed · 7 inactive
Inactive · 7
Atlanta Falcons
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Who moved the needle
Passing · MIA
20/26, 205 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT
9.6 expected points added · +1.9% completion over expected
Passing · ATL
21/31, 173 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
-5.9 expected points added · +2.5% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Tua Tagovailoa banked 12.8 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tua TagovailoaQB · Starter QB | 24.2 | +12.8 | 90% | — | 0% | — | 20/26, 205 yd, 4 TD |
| Jaylen WaddleWR · Featured Receiver | 20.9 | +10.4 | 78% | 89% | 22% | 68% | 5/6, 99 yd, 1 TD |
| De'Von AchaneRB · Committee Back | 20.1 | −2.6 | 67% | 71% | 26% | 3% | 18 car, 67 yd · 5/7, 24 yd, 1 TD |
| Kyle PittsTE · Alpha Receiver | 14.9 | +2.0 | 92% | 100% | 30% | 14% | 9/9, 59 yd |
| Ollie Gordon IIRB | 13.6 | +6.1 | 30% | 36% | 4% | 0% | 10 car, 46 yd · 1/1, 20 yd, 1 TD |
| Malik WashingtonWR · Featured Receiver | 13.6 | +5.5 | 62% | 64% | 19% | 18% | 4/5, 36 yd, 1 TD |
| Tyler AllgeierRB | 9.4 | +2.5 | 40% | 44% | 7% | 2% | 4 car, 4 yd, 1 TD · 2/2, 10 yd |
| Kirk CousinsQB · Starter QB | 7.1 | −2.6 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 21/31, 173 yd · 2 car, 2 yd |
| KhaDarel HodgeWR · Alpha Receiver | 6.1 | −6.7 | 66% | 72% | 27% | 37% | 3/8, 31 yd |
| Bijan RobinsonRB · Committee Back | 5.8 | −3.2 | 60% | 63% | 10% | 0% | 9 car, 25 yd · 3/3, 23 yd |
| Jaylen WrightRB | 3.8 | −2.1 | 16% | 4% | 4% | 0% | 9 car, 28 yd · 1/1, 0 yd |
| Casey WashingtonWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.5 | +2.1 | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| David SillsWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.4 | −1.1 | 90% | 100% | 10% | 11% | 2/3, 14 yd |
| Nick Westbrook-IkhineWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.8 | −3.2 | 65% | 64% | 11% | 24% | 1/3, 18 yd |
| Tanner ConnerTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.6 | −0.5 | 45% | 43% | 7% | 0% | 2/2, 6 yd |
| Darnell MooneyWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.1 | −4.6 | 90% | 94% | 13% | 30% | 1/4, 11 yd |
| Nate CarterRB | 1.4 | +0.5 | — | — | — | — | No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash. |
| Cedrick Wilson Jr.WR · Rotational Receiver | 1.2 | −0.3 | 32% | 29% | 4% | 0% | 1/1, 2 yd |
| Alec IngoldRB | 1.0 | −0.4 | 38% | 43% | 4% | 0% | 1/1, 0 yd |
| Jamal AgnewWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| Feleipe FranksTE | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Dee EskridgeWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash. |
| Hayden RucciTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 16% | 4% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Zach WilsonQB | 0.0 | −0.4 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
6 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Falcons attack right, the Dolphins attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(10:31) (Shotgun) 7-B.Robinson left end to MIA 16 for 3 yards. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by MIA-25-T.Dodson at MIA 10. 25-T.Dodson to MIA 16 for 6 yards (70-J.Matthews; 65-M.Bergeron). Penalty on ATL-64-R.Neuzil, Offensive Holding, declined.
Q3 10:31 · Falcons · 1st & 10 at MIA 19 · gained 3 · -5.45 EP · −10.4% win probability
148 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 158 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 148 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 153. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
8 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIA moving 84 yards from the MIA 16 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; ATL attacks right, MIA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
158 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
158 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Dolphins6
Falcons0Dolphins7Falcons0Dolphins7Falcons3Dolphins10Falcons3Dolphins16Falcons3Dolphins17Falcons3How the play was built
A run-pass option, a man in motion.
Dolphins23Falcons3Dolphins24Falcons3Dolphins30Falcons3Dolphins31Falcons3Dolphins34Falcons3Dolphins34Falcons9Dolphins34Falcons10Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Dolphins at Falcons, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | 20/26 | 205 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +9.6 |
| Zach Wilson | 1/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −3.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| De'Von Achane | 18 | 67 | 3.7 | 0 | −0.7 |
| Ollie Gordon II | 10 | 46 | 4.6 | 0 | +5.2 |
| Jaylen Wright |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Waddle | 5 | 6 | 99 | 1 | 22% | +8.0 |
| Malik Washington | 4 | 5 | 36 | 1 | 19% | +2.4 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordyn Brooks | 6 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Willie Gay Jr. | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ifeatu Melifonwu | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyrel Dodson |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 21/31 | 173 | 0 | 0 | 1 | −5.9 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2025_08_MIA_ATL
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Falcons closed -7 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 44.5; the game landed 44 — under by 0.5.
Conditions and crew
| 9 |
| 28 |
| 3.1 |
| 0 |
| −1.5 |
| De'Von Achane | 5 | 7 | 24 | 1 | 26% | −0.8 |
| Ollie Gordon II | 1 | 1 | 20 | 1 | 4% | +3.4 |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | 1 | 3 | 18 | 0 | 11% | −0.2 |
| Tanner Conner | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 7% | −0.2 |
| Cedrick Wilson Jr. | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4% | −0.5 |
| Jaylen Wright | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −3.4 |
| Alec Ingold | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.4 |
| 3 |
| 1 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Jack Jones | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rasul Douglas | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Minkah Fitzpatrick | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaelan Phillips | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dante Trader Jr. | 0 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 |
| 25 |
| 2.8 |
| 0 |
| −7.9 |
| Nate Carter | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 | −0.9 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 4 | 4 | 1.0 | 1 | −1.8 |
| Kirk Cousins | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | +0.1 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Pitts | 9 | 9 | 59 | 0 | 30% | −4.6 |
| KhaDarel Hodge | 3 | 8 | 31 | 0 | 27% | −2.1 |
| Casey Washington | 1 | 1 | 25 | 0 | 3% | +1.9 |
| Bijan Robinson | 3 | 3 | 23 | 0 | 10% | +1.1 |
| David Sills | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 10% | −1.1 |
| Darnell Mooney | 1 | 4 | 11 | 0 | 13% | −0.9 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 7% | +3.1 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaden Elliss | 6 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| JD Bertrand | 3 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Mike Hughes | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Sam Roberts | 1 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jessie Bates | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| A.J. Terrell | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dee Alford | 5 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| David Onyemata | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Arnold Ebiketie | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Xavier Watts | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
