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2025 Week 8 · Sun, Oct 26, 2025 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium

Miami DolphinsWinner

34

Atlanta Falcons

10

ATL -7 upsetU 44.5 ✓Dome

Miami Dolphins 34–10 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q3 10:31, MIA +12% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3ATLMIA
Q3 · 10:31MIA 17ATL 3ATL ball · 1st & 10MIA 69%

(10:31) (Shotgun) 7-B.Robinson left end to MIA 16 for 3 yards. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by MIA-25-T.Dodson at MIA 10. 25-T.Dodson to MIA 16 for 6 yards (70-J.Matthews; 65-M.Bergeron). Penalty on ATL-64-R.Neuzil, Offensive Hold

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q3 · 10:31MIA +12% win prob(10:31) (Shotgun) 7-B.Robinson left end to MIA 16 for 3 yards. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by MIA-25-T.Dodson at MIA 10. 25-T.Dodson to MIA 16 for 6 yards (70-J.Matthews; 65-M.Bergeron). Penalty on ATL-64-R.Neuzil, Offensive Holding, declined.
  2. Q1 · 0:27ATL +8% win prob(:27) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short left to 25-T.Allgeier to MIA 34 for 4 yards (29-M.Fitzpatrick).
  3. Q1 · 14:05MIA +7% win prob(14:05) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa sacked at MIA 27 for -8 yards (20-D.Alford).
  4. Q2 · 10:40ATL +7% win prob(10:40) 16-J.Bailey punts 49 yards to ATL 8, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 14-J.Agnew. PENALTY on ATL-84-F.Franks, Unnecessary Roughness, 4 yards, enforced at ATL 8.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 2:38MIA Touchdown

    (2:38) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right to 28-D.Achane for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: MIA 7ATL 0
  2. Q2 · 13:03ATL Field goal

    (13:03) 39-J.Romo 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

    Score after this play: MIA 7ATL 3
  3. Q2 · 6:18MIA Field goal

    (6:18) 47-R.Patterson 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

    Score after this play: MIA 10ATL 3
  4. Q2 · 0:18MIA Touchdown

    (:18) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 6-M.Washington for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: MIA 17ATL 3
  5. Q3 · 4:26MIA Touchdown

    (4:26) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short middle to 17-J.Waddle for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: MIA 24ATL 3
  6. Q4 · 13:34MIA Touchdown

    (13:34) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 31-O.Gordon for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: MIA 31ATL 3
  7. Q4 · 8:41MIA Field goal

    (8:41) 47-R.Patterson 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

    Score after this play: MIA 34ATL 3
  8. Q4 · 5:09ATL Touchdown

    (5:09) (Shotgun) 25-T.Allgeier left end for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: MIA 34ATL 10

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricDolphinsFalcons
Offensive plays6548
Total yards338 (edge)214
Yards per play5.2 (edge)4.5
Expected points added / play0.14 (edge)-0.34
Success rate48% (edge)40%
Dropback rate43%67%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.22 (edge)-0.18
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.08 (edge)-0.66
Third downs6/13 (edge)2/11
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)8 (edge)3
First downs gained on snaps21 (edge)10
Sacks taken11
Turnovers0 (edge)1

Dolphins won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.14 expected points added per play vs -0.34.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · MIA

Tua TagovailoaQB

20/26, 205 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT

9.6 expected points added · +1.9% completion over expected

Passing · ATL

Kirk CousinsQB

21/31, 173 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-5.9 expected points added · +2.5% completion over expected

Rushing · MIA

De'Von AchaneRB

18 att, 67 yds, 0 TD

-0.7 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · MIA

Ollie Gordon IIRB

10 att, 46 yds, 0 TD

5.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · MIA

Jaylen WaddleWR

5/6 for 99 yds, 1 TD

22% of team targets · 8.0 expected points added

Receiving · ATL

Kyle PittsTE

9/9 for 59 yds, 0 TD

30% of team targets · -4.6 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1MIAMIA 345-71:37Punt
2ATLATL 32452:17Punt
3MIAMIA 2114638:33Touchdown +7
4ATLATL 3110434:34Field goal +3
5MIAMIA 276162:27Punt
6ATLATL 4442:02Punt
7MIAATL 405252:16Field goal +3
8ATLATL 28571:34Punt
9MIAMIA 1811724:29Touchdown +7
10ATLATL 36200:11End of half
11ATLATL 29571:34Punt
12MIAMIA 14442:06Punt
13ATLATL 252200:57Fumble
14MIAMIA 1611786:05Touchdown +7
15ATLATL 147271:44Turnover on downs
16MIAATL 418464:06Touchdown +7
17ATLATL 208222:32Turnover on downs
18MIAATL 375202:20Field goal +3
19ATLATL 3513653:35Touchdown +7
20MIAATL 488213:59Turnover on downs
21ATLATL 272141:02End of game

8 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Dolphins gained 78 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Miami Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Tua Tagovailoa20/262054019.6
Zach Wilson1/10000-3.4

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
De'Von Achane18673.70-0.7
Ollie Gordon II10464.605.2
Jaylen Wright9283.10-1.5

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Jaylen Waddle5699122%8.0
Malik Washington4536119%2.4
De'Von Achane5724126%-0.8
Ollie Gordon II112014%3.4
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine1318011%-0.2
Tanner Conner22607%-0.2
Cedrick Wilson Jr.11204%-0.5
Jaylen Wright11004%-3.4
Alec Ingold11004%-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

Atlanta Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Kirk Cousins21/31173001-5.9

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Bijan Robinson9252.80-7.9
Nate Carter2147.00-0.9
Tyler Allgeier441.01-1.8
Kirk Cousins221.000.1

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Kyle Pitts9959030%-4.6
KhaDarel Hodge3831027%-2.1
Casey Washington112503%1.9
Bijan Robinson3323010%1.1
David Sills2314010%-1.1
Darnell Mooney1411013%-0.9
Tyler Allgeier221007%3.1

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Kaden Elliss650.001
JD Bertrand360.001
Jessie Bates240.000
Mike Hughes420.001
Sam Roberts150.000
David Onyemata140.000
A.J. Terrell230.000
Dee Alford501.000
James Pearce Jr.220.000
Arnold Ebiketie220.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
ATL -7
Closing total
44.5
MIA moneyline
+280
ATL moneyline
-355

Falcons closed -7 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 44.5; the game landed 44 — under by 0.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee
John Hussey
Rest
MIA 7 days · ATL 7 days
Coaches
Mike McDaniel vs Raheem Morris