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Minnesota Vikings 10 at Los Angeles Chargers 37. Final.
Chargers -3 ✓O 45.5 ✓
The verdict · 2025 Week 8
Los Angeles Chargers 37, Vikings 10 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 10:53, 3rd and 13, on Keenan Allen — 7.3 win-probability points to the Chargers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 10:53 · 3rd and 13
Keenan Allen
Chargers
(10:53) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 13-K.Allen to LAC 31 for 17 yards (22-H.Smith).
Dome
Chargers closed -3 and covered, winning by 27.
Los Angeles Chargers 37–10 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 10:53, Chargers +7.3% win probability on one snap.
7.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Justin JeffersonVikingsQ1 14:03(14:03) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass deep left to 18-J.Jefferson to MIN 32 for 16 yards (24-B.St-Juste) [0-D.Henley].
6.8pts
Ladd McConkeyChargersQ1 5:43(5:43) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 15-L.McConkey to MIN 17 for 15 yards (7-B.Murphy). PENALTY on MIN-15-D.Turner, Roughing the Passer, 9 yards, enforced at MIN 17.
6.2pts
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Chargers won this one — 51% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Vikings at 28% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Chargersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Chargers won this one — +0.20 expected points per snap, against Vikings at -0.42 expected points per snap.
Chargersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Chargers won this one — 9 of 13 on third down, against Vikings at 3 of 11 on third down.
Chargersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Chargers won this one — -0.03 expected points per carry, against Vikings at -0.65 expected points per carry.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 1.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 6 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Vikings.
MarketModelmodel higher on Chargershigher on Vikings154 of 162 plays carry both curves
(10:53) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 13-K.Allen to LAC 31 for 17 yards (22-H.Smith).
Swing +7.3 for ChargersExpected points +3.12 for ChargersModel and market agree here.play 12
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 10:53LAC +7% win prob(10:53) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 13-K.Allen to LAC 31 for 17 yards (22-H.Smith).
1st · 14:03LAC +7% win prob(14:03) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass deep left to 18-J.Jefferson to MIN 32 for 16 yards (24-B.St-Juste) [0-D.Henley].
1st · 5:43LAC +6% win prob(5:43) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 15-L.McConkey to MIN 17 for 15 yards (7-B.Murphy). PENALTY on MIN-15-D.Turner, Roughing the Passer, 9 yards, enforced at MIN 17.
1st · 4:05LAC +6% win prob(4:05) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 86-O.Gadsden for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN [58-J.Greenard]. PENALTY on LAC-86-O.Gadsden, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
2nd · 6:10MIN +4% win prob(6:10) 11-C.Dicker 49 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-41-R.Lovato, Holder-16-J.Scott.
1st · 3:01MIN +4% win prob(3:01) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz sacked at MIN 9 for -8 yards (92-J.Eboigbe).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Oronde Gadsden II's 8-yard touchdown catch with 4:05 left in the 1st put Los Angeles Chargers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
4th7:04Cameron Dicker·34-yd field goal34-yard field goalholder J.Scott · snap R.Lovato+310–34
4th2:00Cameron Dicker·45-yd field goal45-yard field goalholder J.Scott · snap R.Lovato+310–37
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Vikingscategory by categoryChargers
Vikings0–9Chargers
164Total yards419
3.5Yards per play6.0
28%Success rate51%
27%Third-down rate69%
1Red-zone touchdowns3
1Explosive plays7
10First downs27
5Sacks taken2
2Turnovers1
The read
Chargers ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — explosive plays.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.65 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.42Vikings: −0.42 expected points added per play
+0.20Chargers: +0.20 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.35Vikings: −0.35 expected points added per play
+0.45Chargers: +0.45 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.65Vikings: −0.65 expected points added per play
−0.03Chargers: −0.03 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Vikings ran 47 snaps at a 77% dropback rate against Chargers’s 70 at 49%. Red-zone trips: Vikings 1, Chargers 5.
NoteChargers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.20 expected points added per play vs -0.42.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
LAC's play-action rate, 41.2%, was the highest of the 26 team-games charted in week 8 — 5.2 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of 28.1% in week 2.
2.3 times their own weekly swing above their number.
A 2.8-swing turn from week 7.
34 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.8 points.
LAC's early-down pass rate, 43.9%, is past their previous low of 53.3% in week 5 — the lowest of their 8 charted games through week 8.
A 3.1-swing turn from week 7.
57 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.3 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 21 pts
inside their normal wobble · +4.1 vs their 19.5%, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (+0.53× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Chargers22.2%
inside their normal wobble · +7.1 vs their 15.2%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (+0.97× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
NoteLAC's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 41.2%, 17.8 points above their season mean of 23.4% and 2.3 times their own 7.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Minnesota Vikings
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
67Justin SkuleT · Every snap100%49 snaps
74Donovan JacksonG · Every snap100%49 snaps
76Will FriesG · Every snap100%49 snaps
64Blake BrandelG · Every snap100%49 snaps
11Carson WentzQB · Full-time88%43 snaps
18Justin JeffersonWR · Full-time88%43 snaps
3Jordan AddisonWR · Full-time86%42 snaps
73Walter RouseT · Full-time82%40 snaps
87T.J. HockensonTE · Full-time82%40 snaps
1Jalen NailorWR · Heavy rotation69%34 snaps
33Aaron JonesRB · Heavy rotation53%26 snaps
27Jordan MasonRB · Rotational35%17 snaps
85Ben YurosekTE · Rotational31%15 snaps
19Adam ThielenWR · Situational24%12 snaps
71Christian DarrisawT · Situational18%9 snaps
36Zavier ScottRB · Situational12%6 snaps
13Tai FeltonWR · Situational12%6 snaps
12Max BrosmerQB · Situational12%6 snaps
84Josh OliverTE · Situational8%4 snaps
Inactive · 7
Elijah WilliamsDTC.J. HamFBKobe KingILBAndrew Van GinkelOLBChaz ChamblissOLBJ.J. McCarthyQBBrian O'NeillT
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Chargers attack right, the Vikings attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Vikings←Chargers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Herbert pass+6% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(4:05) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 86-O.Gadsden for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN [58-J.Greenard]. PENALTY on LAC-86-O.Gadsden, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
Q1 4:05 · Chargers · 3rd & goal at MIN 8 · gained 8 · +2.76 EP · +6.1% win probability
152 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 162 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 152 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 157. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was LAC moving 94 yards from the LAC 6 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LAC attacks right, MIN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
162 of 162 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
162
EPA per play
-0.01
Success rate
46%
Yards
583
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Vikings1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR38-0.5079%
Chargers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR27+0.3767%
Chargers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR27+0.2015%
Vikings1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9-0.1267%
Chargers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR8-0.2450%
Chargers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Chargers2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
Chargers2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Chargers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
162 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
162 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter35 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Vikings 16 to the Vikings 41
Vikings0Chargers6
Vikings0Chargers7
Touchdown15 plays, from the Chargers 17 to the Vikings 8
Punt5 plays
The period ended6 plays, from the Chargers 41 to the Vikings 37
2nd quarter49 plays
Vikings0Chargers13
Vikings0Chargers14
Touchdown5 plays, from the Vikings 31 to the Vikings 3
Vikings3Chargers14
Field goal10 plays, from the Vikings 30 to the Chargers 35
No good8 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Vikings 24
Punt5 plays, from the Vikings 39 to the Vikings 47
Vikings3Chargers20
Vikings3Chargers21
Touchdown11 plays, from the Chargers 6 to the Vikings 27
No good9 plays, from the Vikings 41 to the Chargers 35
3rd quarter39 plays
Vikings3Chargers24
Field goal11 plays, from the Chargers 33 to the Vikings 25
Punt7 plays, from the Vikings 22 to the Vikings 38
Intercepted1 play
Vikings9Chargers24
Vikings10Chargers24
Touchdown9 plays, from the Chargers 26 to the Chargers 4
The period ended11 plays, from the Chargers 27 to the Vikings 22
4th quarter39 plays
Vikings10Chargers30
Vikings10Chargers31
Touchdown7 plays, from the Vikings 14 to the Vikings 1
Intercepted3 plays, from the Vikings 31 to the Vikings 43
Vikings10Chargers34
Field goal8 plays, from the Chargers 48 to the Vikings 16
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Vikings 35 to the Vikings 37
Vikings10Chargers37
Field goal7 plays, from the Vikings 36 to the Vikings 23
The period ended9 plays, from the Vikings 35 to the Chargers 41
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
