For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 7.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 19 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Giants.
MarketModelmodel higher on Eagleshigher on Giants148 of 154 plays carry both curves
(14:53) 74-F.Johnson reported in as eligible. 26-S.Barkley left tackle for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +17.4 for EaglesExpected points +5.60 for EaglesThe model had Giants 17 points higher than the market did.play 4
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 14:53PHI +17% win prob(14:53) 74-F.Johnson reported in as eligible. 26-S.Barkley left tackle for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 0:36PHI +8% win prob(:36) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts scrambles up the middle to NYG 41 for 5 yards (24-D.Belton).
1st · 3:01PHI +8% win prob(3:01) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-J.Dart pass short left to 44-C.Skattebo for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 6:15NYG +7% win prob(6:15) 4-J.Elliott 58 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-57-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Mann.
2nd · 12:57PHI +7% win prob(12:57) 1-J.Hurts up the middle to NYG 9 for 2 yards (5-K.Thibodeaux). New York Giants challenged the first down ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)
2nd · 7:05NYG +6% win prob(7:05) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts sacked at PHI 9 for -7 yards (sack split by 97-D.Lawrence and 91-D.Alexander).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Saquon Barkley's 9-yard touchdown catch with 11:43 left in the 2nd put Philadelphia Eagles ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Eagles ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.49 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.09Giants: +0.09 expected points added per play
+0.46Eagles: +0.46 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.15Giants: +0.15 expected points added per play
+0.42Eagles: +0.42 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.02Giants: −0.02 expected points added per play
+0.49Eagles: +0.49 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Giants ran 49 snaps at a 63% dropback rate against Eagles’s 54 at 50%. Red-zone trips: Giants 3, Eagles 5.
NoteEagles won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.46 expected points added per play vs 0.09.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -28 pts to 20 pts
right on their number · +2.7 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (+0.32× that swing) · 27 dropbacks
Eagles19.4%
right on their number · +2.7 vs their 16.6%, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (+0.41× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
NoteNYG's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 12.9%, 9.3 points below their season mean of 22.2% and 1.0 times their own 9.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New York Giants
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
74Greg Van RotenG · Every snap100%52 snaps
76Jon RunyanG · Every snap100%52 snaps
78Andrew ThomasT · Every snap100%52 snaps
61John Michael SchmitzC · Every snap100%52 snaps
6Jaxson DartQB · Every snap100%52 snaps
84Theo JohnsonTE · Full-time98%51 snaps
72Jermaine EluemunorT · Full-time98%51 snaps
17Wan'Dale RobinsonWR · Full-time98%51 snaps
18Darius SlaytonWR · Heavy rotation73%38 snaps
89Lil'Jordan HumphreyWR · Heavy rotation63%33 snaps
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Eagles attack right, the Giants attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Giants←Eagles→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
F.Johnson reported+21% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(14:53) 74-F.Johnson reported in as eligible. 26-S.Barkley left tackle for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 14:53 · Eagles · 2nd & 10 at PHI 35 · gained 65 · +5.60 EP · +20.8% win probability
146 snaps placed · 8 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 154 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 146 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 149. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was PHI moving 73 yards from the PHI 27 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PHI attacks right, NYG attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
154 of 154 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
154
EPA per play
+0.20
Success rate
53%
Yards
673
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Giants1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR30-0.1773%
Eagles1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR27+0.2759%
Giants1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR19+0.5037%
Eagles1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR15+0.9440%
Eagles1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5+0.9820%
Eagles1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR5-0.0920%
Eagles1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
snapsepapass rate
154 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
154 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter35 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Giants0Eagles6
Giants0Eagles7
Touchdown4 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Giants 31 to the Giants 35
No good10 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Giants 35
Giants6Eagles7
Giants7Eagles7
Touchdown7 plays, from the Giants 48 to the Eagles 18
The period ended7 plays, from the Eagles 47 to the Giants 41
2nd quarter46 plays
Giants7Eagles13
Giants7Eagles14
Touchdown8 plays, from the Giants 46 to the Giants 9
Punt11 plays, from the Giants 31 to the Eagles 49
Punt4 plays, from the Eagles 13 to the Eagles 16
Giants10Eagles14
Field goal8 plays, from the Giants 34 to the Eagles 27
Giants10Eagles20
Giants10Eagles21
Touchdown12 plays, from the Eagles 42 to the Giants 6
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter38 plays
Punt5 plays
Giants10Eagles24
Field goal13 plays, from the Eagles 24 to the Giants 22
Giants13Eagles24
Field goal17 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Eagles 13
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter35 plays
Giants13Eagles30
Giants13Eagles31
Touchdown7 plays, from the Giants 44 to the Giants 17
Punt6 plays
Giants13Eagles37
Giants13Eagles38
Touchdown7 plays, from the Eagles 27 to the Giants 40
Giants19Eagles38
Giants20Eagles38
Touchdown9 plays, from the Giants 35 to the Eagles 2
The period ended6 plays, from the Giants 45 to the Giants 28
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
