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connecting · reading the slate
Game Center
2025 Week 8 · Sun, Oct 26, 2025 · Lincoln Financial Field
FinalThe verdict · 2025 Week 8
It turned at Q1 14:53, 2nd and 10, on Saquon Barkley — 17.4 win-probability points to the Eagles on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Philadelphia Eagles 38–20 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 14:53, Eagles +17.4% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 14:53 · 2nd and 10
Saquon Barkley
Eagles
(14:53) 74-F.Johnson reported in as eligible. 26-S.Barkley left tackle for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
17.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Explosive plays
Eagles won this one — 10 chunk plays, against Giants at 3 chunk plays.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Eagles won this one — 59% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Giants at 41% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Eagles won this one — +0.49 expected points per carry, against Giants at -0.02 expected points per carry.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Eagles won this one — +0.46 expected points per snap, against Giants at +0.09 expected points per snap.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 7.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 19 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Giants.
(14:53) 74-F.Johnson reported in as eligible. 26-S.Barkley left tackle for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Saquon Barkley's 9-yard touchdown catch with 11:43 left in the 2nd put Philadelphia Eagles ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Saquon Barkley9-yd TD catch9-yard touchdown catchfrom Jalen HurtsLead never changed again+77–1410 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Giantscategory by categoryEagles
Eagles ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.49 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Giants ran 49 snaps at a 63% dropback rate against Eagles’s 54 at 50%. Red-zone trips: Giants 3, Eagles 5.
Eagles won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.46 expected points added per play vs 0.09.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -28 pts to 20 pts
Over Expected room →Giants-6.7 ptsright on their number · −1.7 vs their -5.0 pts, and they swing ±8.9 week to week (−0.19× that swing) · 49 snaps
Eagles-7.9 ptsinside their normal wobble · −5.5 vs their -2.4 pts, and they swing ±8.9 week to week (−0.62× that swing) · 54 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 20% to 85%
Tendencies room →Giants55.6%right on their number · +4.4 vs their 51.2%, and they swing ±11.8 week to week (+0.37× that swing) · 36 early downs
Eagles42.2%inside their normal wobble · −10.6 vs their 52.9%, and they swing ±12.7 week to week (−0.84× that swing) · 45 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 46%
Tendencies room →Giants12.9%leaned — dropped back clean · −9.3 vs their 22.2%, and they swing ±9.1 week to week (−1.02× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Eagles18.5%right on their number · −3.8 vs their 22.4%, and they swing ±9.4 week to week (−0.41× that swing) · 27 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -59% to 125%
Fourth Down room →Giants—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 53.2%.
Eagles—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 32.8%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 3% to 63%
Tendencies room →Giants37.0%right on their number · +3.7 vs their 33.3%, and they swing ±11.7 week to week (+0.32× that swing) · 27 dropbacks
Eagles22.6%right on their number · −3.6 vs their 26.2%, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (−0.43× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 37%
Tendencies room →Giants18.5%right on their number · +2.7 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (+0.32× that swing) · 27 dropbacks
Eagles19.4%right on their number · +2.7 vs their 16.6%, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (+0.41× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
NYG's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 12.9%, 9.3 points below their season mean of 22.2% and 1.0 times their own 9.1-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New York Giants
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Philadelphia Eagles
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · NYG
14/24, 193 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
3.4 expected points added · +1.8% completion over expected
Passing · PHI
15/20, 179 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT
8.0 expected points added · +9.8% completion over expected
Receiving · NYG
3/4 for 48 yds, 0 TD
18% of team targets · 1.0 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Saquon Barkley banked 17.3 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon BarkleyRB · Committee Back | 33.4 | +17.3 | 59% | 74% | 25% | 0% | 14 car, 150 yd, 1 TD · 4/5, 24 yd, 1 TD |
| Jalen HurtsQB · Starter QB | 25.4 | +11.9 | 93% | — | 0% | — | 15/20, 179 yd, 4 TD · 4 car, 22 yd |
| Jaxson DartQB · Starter QB | 19.4 | +2.0 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 14/24, 193 yd, 1 TD · 6 car, 17 yd, 1 TD |
| Dallas GoedertTE · Rotational Receiver | 17.8 | +12.0 | 63% | 74% | 15% | 7% | 3/3, 28 yd, 2 TD |
| DeVonta SmithWR · Alpha Receiver | 14.4 | −2.6 | 90% | 100% | 45% | 73% | 6/9, 84 yd |
| Jahan DotsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 11.0 | +6.9 | 71% | 96% | 10% | 34% | 1/2, 40 yd, 1 TD |
| Tank BigsbyRB | 10.4 | +5.6 | 27% | 11% | 0% | — | 9 car, 104 yd |
| Cam SkatteboRB | 10.0 | +5.2 | 21% | 23% | 9% | 7% | 3 car, 12 yd · 1/2, 18 yd, 1 TD |
| Wan'Dale RobinsonWR · Featured Receiver | 7.8 | +1.8 | 98% | 100% | 18% | 23% | 3/4, 48 yd |
| Tyrone Tracy Jr.RB · Committee Back | 7.3 | −1.9 | 63% | 61% | 14% | 0% | 10 car, 39 yd · 2/3, 14 yd |
| Theo JohnsonTE · Featured Receiver | 5.0 | −1.2 | 98% | 100% | 18% | 15% | 3/4, 20 yd |
| Darius SlaytonWR · Featured Receiver | 4.6 | −3.1 | 73% | 71% | 23% | 31% | 2/5, 26 yd |
| Devin SingletaryRB | 3.8 | +1.3 | 15% | 16% | 5% | 10% | 2 car, 0 yd · 1/1, 28 yd |
| Daniel BellingerTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.1 | +1.1 | 40% | 29% | 5% | 8% | 1/1, 21 yd |
| Beaux CollinsWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.8 | −2.1 | 23% | 29% | 9% | 9% | 1/2, 18 yd |
| Xavier GipsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.3 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Will ShipleyRB | 0.2 | −1.6 | 14% | 15% | 0% | — | 3 car, 2 yd |
| Gunner OlszewskiWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Cameron LatuTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 15% | 4% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Tanner McKeeQB | -0.2 | +0.1 | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Eagles attack right, the Giants attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(14:53) 74-F.Johnson reported in as eligible. 26-S.Barkley left tackle for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 14:53 · Eagles · 2nd & 10 at PHI 35 · gained 65 · +5.60 EP · +20.8% win probability
146 snaps placed · 8 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 154 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 146 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 149. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
10 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was PHI moving 73 yards from the PHI 27 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PHI attacks right, NYG attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
154 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
154 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Giants0
Eagles6Giants0Eagles7Giants6Eagles7Giants7Eagles7Giants7Eagles13Giants7Eagles14Giants10Eagles14Giants10Eagles20Giants10Eagles21Giants10Eagles24Giants13Eagles24Giants13Eagles30Giants13Eagles31Giants13Eagles37Giants13Eagles38Giants19Eagles38Giants20Eagles38Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Giants at Eagles, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxson Dart | 14/24 | 193 | 1 | 0 | 5 | +3.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrone Tracy Jr. | 10 | 39 | 3.9 | 0 | −0.7 |
| Jaxson Dart | 6 | 17 | 2.8 | 1 | +4.1 |
| Cam Skattebo |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wan'Dale Robinson | 3 | 4 | 48 | 0 | 18% | +1.0 |
| Devin Singletary | 1 | 1 | 28 | 0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dane Belton | 4 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bobby Okereke | 7 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kayvon Thibodeaux |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 15/20 | 179 | 4 | 0 | 4 | +8.0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2025_08_NYG_PHI
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Eagles closed -7 and covered, winning by 18.
Total closed 43.5; the game landed 58 — over by 14.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 3 |
| 12 |
| 4.0 |
| 0 |
| −0.6 |
| Devin Singletary | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | −1.7 |
| 5% |
| +3.2 |
| Darius Slayton | 2 | 5 | 26 | 0 | 23% | −0.4 |
| Daniel Bellinger | 1 | 1 | 21 | 0 | 5% | +1.3 |
| Theo Johnson | 3 | 4 | 20 | 0 | 18% | +2.2 |
| Cam Skattebo | 1 | 2 | 18 | 1 | 9% | +1.4 |
| Beaux Collins | 1 | 2 | 18 | 0 | 9% | +0.6 |
| Tyrone Tracy Jr. | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 14% | +0.6 |
| 1 |
| 4 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| Tyler Nubin | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Abdul Carter | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brian Burns | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Deonte Banks | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rakeem Nunez-Roches | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Roy Robertson-Harris | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dexter Lawrence | 0 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Saquon Barkley | 14 | 150 | 10.7 | 1 | +6.7 |
| Tank Bigsby | 9 | 104 | 11.6 | 0 | +6.9 |
| Jalen Hurts | 4 | 22 | 5.5 | 0 | +4.6 |
| Will Shipley | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 | −1.6 |
| Tanner McKee | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 | −3.6 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeVonta Smith | 6 | 9 | 84 | 0 | 45% | +3.8 |
| Jahan Dotson | 1 | 2 | 40 | 1 | 10% | +3.8 |
| Dallas Goedert | 3 | 3 | 28 | 2 | 15% | +5.3 |
| Saquon Barkley | 4 | 5 | 24 | 1 | 25% | +1.4 |
| Xavier Gipson | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 5% | −0.3 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zack Baun | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Cooper DeJean | 1 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Reed Blankenship | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nakobe Dean | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalyx Hunt | 4 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Moro Ojomo | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Will Shipley | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Davis | 2 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalen Carter | 2 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Byron Young | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
