For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
5 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 5.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 16 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jets.
MarketModelmodel higher on Bengalshigher on Jets166 of 173 plays carry both curves
(:32) (Shotgun) 16-J.Flacco pass incomplete short middle to 80-A.Iosivas (29-J.Brownlee).
Swing −27.8 for BengalsExpected points −1.96 for BengalsModel and market agree here.play 171
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:32NYJ +28% win prob(:32) (Shotgun) 16-J.Flacco pass incomplete short middle to 80-A.Iosivas (29-J.Brownlee).
4th · 2:00CIN +11% win prob(2:00) 20-B.Hall pass short right to 85-M.Taylor for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 3:10NYJ +9% win prob(3:10) 61-M.Mitchell reported in as eligible. 32-I.Davis right guard to CIN 7 for -1 yards (98-T.Slaton, 55-L.Wilson).
4th · 0:37NYJ +9% win prob(:37) (Shotgun) 16-J.Flacco pass incomplete short left to 1-J.Chase.
1st · 8:20NYJ +9% win prob(8:20) 20-B.Hall right end to NYJ 35 for -2 yards (49-B.Carter).
2nd · 5:23CIN +8% win prob(5:23) (Shotgun) 7-J.Fields pass short right to 16-T.Johnson for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 2:28CIN +7% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Mason Taylor's 4-yard touchdown catch with 2:00 left in the 4th put New York Jets ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st10:17Evan McPherson·26-yd field goal26-yard field goalholder R.Rehkow · snap W.Wagner+30–3
Jets ahead 6–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.44 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.34Jets: +0.34 expected points added per play
+0.26Bengals: +0.26 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.40Jets: +0.40 expected points added per play
+0.16Bengals: +0.16 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.27Jets: +0.27 expected points added per play
+0.44Bengals: +0.44 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Jets ran 70 snaps at a 54% dropback rate against Bengals’s 58 at 62%. Red-zone trips: Jets 6, Bengals 6.
NoteJets won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.34 expected points added per play vs 0.26.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 11 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
CIN's sack or hit rate, 2.6%, was the lowest of the 26 team-games charted in week 8 — 0.7 points clear of the next team along.
38 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.0 points.
CIN's blitz rate sent turned over: 8.6% in week 7 against 28.9% here — they sat back then and sent pressure now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
38 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.9 points.
NYJ's sack or hit rate turned over: 19.4% in week 7 against 5.6% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
36 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.5 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -31 pts to 16 pts
inside their normal wobble · −4.2 vs their 9.8%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (−0.65× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Bengals2.6%
leaned — stayed blocked · −11.3 vs their 13.9%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (−1.41× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
NoteNYJ's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 28.9%, 11.1 points above their season mean of 17.8% and 1.9 times their own 6.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bengals attack right, the Jets attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Jets←Bengals→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Flacco pass−25% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:32) (Shotgun) 16-J.Flacco pass incomplete short middle to 80-A.Iosivas (29-J.Brownlee).
Q4 0:32 · Bengals · 4th & 9 at CIN 45 · gained nothing · -1.96 EP · −25.2% win probability
164 snaps placed · 9 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 173 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 164 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 168. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
13 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was NYJ moving 85 yards from the NYJ 9 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CIN attacks right, NYJ attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
173 of 173 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
173
EPA per play
+0.24
Success rate
59%
Yards
904
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Jets1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR44+0.2348%
Bengals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR41+0.2068%
Jets1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14+0.7550%
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13+0.4631%
Jets2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Jets1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Bengals0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR2——
Jets2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR2——
Jets2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Bengals1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR2——
snapsepapass rate
173 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
173 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
Jets0Bengals3
Field goal12 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Jets 8
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Jets 28 to the Jets 37
Jets0Bengals9
Jets0Bengals10
Touchdown6 plays, from the Jets 35 to the Jets 1
Punt6 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Jets 37
Punt4 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Bengals 26
The period ended3 plays, from the Jets 26 to the Jets 35
2nd quarter52 plays
Jets3Bengals10
Field goal5 plays, from the Jets 38 to the Bengals 28
Jets3Bengals16
Jets3Bengals17
Touchdown5 plays, from the Bengals 31 to the Jets 44
Jets9Bengals17
Jets10Bengals17
Touchdown11 plays, from the Jets 22 to the Bengals 15
Jets10Bengals23
Jets10Bengals24
Touchdown15 plays, from the Bengals 35 to the Jets 19
Jets13Bengals24
Field goal15 plays, from the Jets 35 to the Bengals 7
3rd quarter39 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Jets 24 to the Bengals 43
Punt4 plays, from the Bengals 20 to the Bengals 24
Jets16Bengals24
Field goal11 plays, from the Jets 14 to the Bengals 6
Jets16Bengals30
Jets16Bengals31
Touchdown10 plays, from the Bengals 35 to the Jets 32
The period ended6 plays, from the Jets 34 to the Bengals 13
4th quarter45 plays
Jets22Bengals31
Jets24Bengals31
Touchdown4 plays, from the Bengals 7 to the Bengals 5
Jets24Bengals37
Jets24Bengals38
Touchdown9 plays, from the Bengals 27 to the Jets 1
Jets30Bengals38
Jets32Bengals38
Touchdown7 plays, from the Jets 40 to the Bengals 27
Punt5 plays
Jets38Bengals38
Jets39Bengals38
Touchdown10 plays, from the Jets 42 to the Bengals 4
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runSlantCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.4 seconds
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Bengals 45
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
