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2025 Week 8 · Sun, Oct 26, 2025 · Paycor Stadium

New York JetsWinner

39

Cincinnati Bengals

38

CIN -5.5 upsetO 43.5 ✓

New York Jets 39–38 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:32, NYJ +28% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3CIN ↑NYJ ↓
Q4 · 0:32NYJ 39 — CIN 38CIN ball · 4th & 9NYJ 64%

(:32) (Shotgun) 16-J.Flacco pass incomplete short middle to 80-A.Iosivas (29-J.Brownlee).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 0:32NYJ +28% win prob(:32) (Shotgun) 16-J.Flacco pass incomplete short middle to 80-A.Iosivas (29-J.Brownlee).
  2. Q4 · 2:00CIN +11% win prob(2:00) 20-B.Hall pass short right to 85-M.Taylor for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  3. Q4 · 3:10NYJ +9% win prob(3:10) 61-M.Mitchell reported in as eligible. 32-I.Davis right guard to CIN 7 for -1 yards (98-T.Slaton, 55-L.Wilson).
  4. Q4 · 0:37NYJ +9% win prob(:37) (Shotgun) 16-J.Flacco pass incomplete short left to 1-J.Chase.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 10:17CIN Field goal

    (10:17) 2-E.McPherson 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.

    Score after this play: NYJ 0 — CIN 3
  2. Q1 · 5:38CIN Touchdown

    (5:38) 16-J.Flacco up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: NYJ 0 — CIN 10
  3. Q2 · 12:17NYJ Field goal

    (12:17) 6-N.Folk 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.

    Score after this play: NYJ 3 — CIN 10
  4. Q2 · 10:52CIN Touchdown

    (10:52) 16-J.Flacco pass deep right to 5-T.Higgins for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: NYJ 3 — CIN 17
  5. Q2 · 5:23NYJ Touchdown

    (5:23) (Shotgun) 7-J.Fields pass short right to 16-T.Johnson for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: NYJ 10 — CIN 17
  6. Q2 · 1:22CIN Touchdown

    (1:22) (Shotgun) 16-J.Flacco pass short middle to 30-C.Brown for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: NYJ 10 — CIN 24
  7. Q2 · 0:04NYJ Field goal

    (:04) 6-N.Folk 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.

    Score after this play: NYJ 13 — CIN 24
  8. Q3 · 6:15NYJ Field goal

    (6:15) 6-N.Folk 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.

    Score after this play: NYJ 16 — CIN 24
  9. Q3 · 2:41CIN Touchdown

    (2:41) (Shotgun) 34-S.Perine left guard for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: NYJ 16 — CIN 31
  10. Q4 · 14:21NYJ Touchdown

    (14:21) 20-B.Hall left guard for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)

    Score after this play: NYJ 24 — CIN 31
  11. Q4 · 10:24CIN Touchdown

    (10:24) (Shotgun) 30-C.Brown right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (kick good)

    Score after this play: NYJ 24 — CIN 38
  12. Q4 · 8:01NYJ Touchdown

    (8:01) (Shotgun) 20-B.Hall right end for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)

    Score after this play: NYJ 32 — CIN 38
  13. Q4 · 2:00NYJ Touchdown

    (2:00) 20-B.Hall pass short right to 85-M.Taylor for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: NYJ 39 — CIN 38

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricJetsBengals
Offensive plays7058
Total yards507 (edge)398
Yards per play7.2 (edge)6.9
Expected points added / play0.34 (edge)0.26
Success rate60% (edge)59%
Dropback rate54%62%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.40 (edge)0.16
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.270.44 (edge)
Third downs7/15 (edge)4/9
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)1010
First downs gained on snaps26 (edge)23
Sacks taken0 (edge)1
Turnovers00

Jets won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.34 expected points added per play vs 0.26.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NYJ

Justin FieldsQB

21/32, 244 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

15.0 expected points added · +3.8% completion over expected

Passing · CIN

Joe FlaccoQB

21/34, 223 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

3.2 expected points added · -8.0% completion over expected

Rushing · NYJ

Breece HallRB

18 att, 133 yds, 2 TD

4.9 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CIN

Samaje PerineRB

9 att, 94 yds, 1 TD

6.8 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CIN

Ja'Marr ChaseWR

12/19 for 91 yds, 0 TD

58% of team targets · 0.9 expected points added

Receiving · NYJ

Tyler JohnsonWR

3/5 for 64 yds, 1 TD

17% of team targets · 6.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1CINCIN 2512674:46Field goal +3
2NYJNYJ 28571:58Turnover on downs
3CINNYJ 356352:41Touchdown +7
4NYJNYJ 256122:41Punt
5CINCIN 25411:38Punt
6NYJNYJ 267464:04Field goal +3
7CINCIN 315691:27Touchdown +7
8NYJNYJ 2211785:27Touchdown +7
9CINCIN 3512704:03Touchdown +7
10NYJNYJ 3513531:15Field goal +3
11NYJNYJ 248332:35Punt
12CINCIN 20441:42Punt
13NYJNYJ 1410854:31Field goal +3
14CINCIN 3510653:38Touchdown +7
15NYJNYJ 348733:17Touchdown +8
16CINCIN 279733:56Touchdown +7
17NYJNYJ 407622:29Touchdown +8
18CINCIN 285-61:02Punt
19NYJNYJ 4210584:56Touchdown +7
20CINCIN 257201:27Turnover on downs
21NYJCIN 45100:27End of game

13 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Jets gained 85 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a field goal.

Full stat lines

Box score

New York Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Justin Fields21/3224410015.0
Breece Hall1/141001.2

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Breece Hall181337.424.9
Isaiah Davis7659.30-0.3
Justin Fields11312.80-0.8
Isaiah Williams12525.001.7

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Tyler Johnson3564117%6.0
Isaiah Davis5544017%4.0
Mason Taylor5834127%3.1
Isaiah Williams3431013%1.6
Jeremy Ruckert112403%3.6
Arian Smith112303%1.4
Breece Hall2314010%-0.8
Andrew Beck11903%0.7
Allen Lazard12507%-0.3

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Malachi Moore530.000
Quincy Williams340.002
Jarvis Brownlee Jr.430.002
Azareye'h Thomas420.001
Jamien Sherwood230.001
Francisco Mauigoa220.000
Jermaine Johnson II300.000
Will McDonald IV121.000
Brandon Stephens120.000
Andre Cisco120.000

Cincinnati Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Joe Flacco21/342232013.2

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Samaje Perine99410.416.8
Chase Brown12736.112.3
Joe Flacco2147.013.0

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Ja'Marr Chase121991058%0.9
Tee Higgins124416%3.5
Noah Fant334109%2.6
Chase Brown333219%3.0
Tanner Hudson12906%-0.8
Samaje Perine11603%0.1
Andrei Iosivas03009%-2.8

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Demetrius Knight Jr.660.001
Geno Stone720.000
Barrett Carter530.000
Jordan Battle440.001
B.J. Hill150.000
Daxton Hill500.000
Logan Wilson230.000
Joseph Ossai130.000
Cam Taylor-Britt130.002
DJ Turner II300.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
CIN -5.5
Closing total
43.5
NYJ moneyline
+210
CIN moneyline
-258

Bengals closed -5.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 43.5; the game landed 77 — over by 33.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Paycor Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
57°F, wind 8 mph
Referee
Scott Novak
Rest
NYJ 7 days · CIN 10 days
Coaches
Aaron Glenn vs Zac Taylor