49ers 15 – Texans 26 (2025 Week 8) | Box Score, Drive Chart & Win Probability

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49ers 15 – Texans 26 (2025 Week 8) | Box Score, Drive Chart & Win Probability | Dynatyze

Derived from the play-by-play, no model

The Read

12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.

high through week 8Against their seasonTendencies
SF's early-down pass rate, 76.5%, is past their previous high of 69.4% in week 6 — the highest of their 8 charted games through week 8.
- A 3.5-swing turn from week 7.
34 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.6 points.
low through week 8Against their seasonFourth Down
SF's fourth-and-short go rate, 0.0%, is past their previous low of 33.3% in week 4 — the lowest of their 5 charted games through week 8.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 10 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 25.6 points.
high through week 8Against their seasonTendencies
SF's blitz rate sent, 33.3%, is past their previous high of 30.0% in week 2 — the highest of their 8 charted games through week 8.
42 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.8 points.
reversed last weekAgainst last weekOver Expected
SF's pass rate over expected turned over: −11.5 pts in week 7 against +4.0 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.6 of their own weekly swings across the two.
44 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.9 points.
reversed last weekAgainst last weekTendencies
HOU's early-down pass rate turned over: 76.0% in week 7 against 52.6% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
57 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.6 points.
reversed last weekAgainst last weekFourth Down
HOU's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 75.0% in week 7 against 20.0% here — they went for it then and took the kick now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
5 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 15 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 24.9 points.

The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game

Was this normal for them?

12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.

their week-to-week swingall 32 teams

upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -16 pts to 15 pts

Over Expected room →

49ers4.0 pts

inside their normal wobble · +4.6 vs their -0.6 pts, and they swing ±5.9 week to week (+0.77× that swing) · 44 snaps

Texans1.1 pts

right on their number · +2.2 vs their -1.1 pts, and they swing ±5.2 week to week (+0.42× that swing) · 74 snaps

upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 25% to 85%

Tendencies room →

49ers76.5%

leaned — passed early · +21.5 vs their 55.0%, and they swing ±11.6 week to week (+1.86× that swing) · 34 early downs

Texans52.6%

right on their number · −2.1 vs their 54.8%, and they swing ±9.6 week to week (−0.22× that swing) · 57 early downs

upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 5% to 40%

Tendencies room →

49ers13.5%

leaned — dropped back clean · −8.9 vs their 22.4%, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (−1.31× that swing) · 37 dropbacks

Texans31.0%

leaned — faked the run · +8.1 vs their 22.8%, and they swing ±6.9 week to week (+1.19× that swing) · 42 dropbacks

upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -41% to 102%

Fourth Down room →

49ers0.0%

leaned — took the kick · −36.3 vs their 36.3%, and they swing ±25.6 week to week (−1.42× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls

Texans20.0%

right on their number · −3.8 vs their 23.8%, and they swing ±24.9 week to week (−0.15× that swing) · 5 fourth-and-short calls

upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 49%

Tendencies room →

49ers33.3%

leaned — sent pressure · +9.9 vs their 23.5%, and they swing ±9.8 week to week (+1.00× that swing) · 42 dropbacks

Texans16.2%

inside their normal wobble · −5.7 vs their 21.9%, and they swing ±9.5 week to week (−0.60× that swing) · 37 dropbacks

upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 29%

Tendencies room →

49ers4.8%

inside their normal wobble · −4.8 vs their 9.5%, and they swing ±5.2 week to week (−0.93× that swing) · 42 dropbacks

Texans16.2%

right on their number · +1.2 vs their 15.0%, and they swing ±5.3 week to week (+0.23× that swing) · 37 dropbacks

SF's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 76.5%, 21.5 points above their season mean of 55.0% and 1.9 times their own 11.6-point weekly swing.

The Game Day Roster

Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.

San Francisco 49ers

48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used

77Dominick PuniG · Every snap100%48 snaps
68Colton McKivitzT · Every snap100%48 snaps
71Trent WilliamsT · Every snap100%48 snaps
10Mac JonesQB · Every snap100%48 snaps
61Matt HennessyC · Every snap100%48 snaps
23Christian McCaffreyRB · Full-time96%46 snaps
85George KittleTE · Full-time90%43 snaps
15Jauan JenningsWR · Full-time85%41 snaps
84Kendrick BourneWR · Heavy rotation79%38 snaps
75Connor ColbyG · Heavy rotation60%29 snaps
5Demarcus RobinsonWR · Heavy rotation56%27 snaps
44Kyle JuszczykFB · Rotational42%20 snaps
63Nick ZakeljG · Rotational40%19 snaps
9Skyy MooreWR · Situational19%9 snaps
17Jordan WatkinsWR · Situational12%6 snaps
88Jake TongesTE · Situational10%5 snaps
89Luke FarrellTE · Situational6%3 snaps
3Brian RobinsonRB · Situational4%2 snaps

Inactive · 7

Jake BrendelCBryce HuffDEYetur Gross-MatosDECJ WestDTBrock PurdyQBJordan JamesRBRicky PearsallWR

Dressed, never took a snap · 1

Adrian MartinezQB

Houston Texans

48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used

69Ed IngramG · Every snap100%80 snaps
71Tytus HowardT · Every snap100%80 snaps
79Aireontae ErseryT · Every snap100%80 snaps
60Jake AndrewsC · Every snap100%80 snaps
7C.J. StroudQB · Every snap100%80 snaps
81Jayden HigginsWR · Full-time82%66 snaps
19Xavier HutchinsonWR · Heavy rotation71%57 snaps
86Dalton SchultzTE · Heavy rotation61%49 snaps
75Laken TomlinsonG · Heavy rotation54%43 snaps
70Juice ScruggsG · Rotational46%37 snaps
89Jared WayneWR · Rotational44%35 snaps
21Nick ChubbRB · Rotational44%35 snaps
27Woody MarksRB · Rotational40%32 snaps
14Jaylin NoelWR · Rotational39%31 snaps
57Blake FisherT · Rotational32%26 snaps
17Braxton BerriosWR · Rotational29%23 snaps
88Harrison BryantTE · Rotational28%22 snaps
33Dare OgunbowaleRB · Situational16%13 snaps
44British BrooksRB · Situational14%11 snaps

Inactive · 6

Darrell TaylorDEGraham MertzQBJarrett KingstonTTrent BrownTNico CollinsWRChristian KirkWR

Dressed, never took a snap · 1

Davis MillsQB

The Opportunity Board

What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.

Share card

Xavier Hutchinson banked 7.8 more points than his own workload asked for.

21 points plotted

Player	Full PPR	Vs expected	Snap share	Routes	Targets	Air yards	Line
C.J. StroudQB · Starter QB	21.7	+1.1	100%	—	0%	—	30/39, 318 yd, 2 TD, 1 INT · 7 car, 30 yd
Mac JonesQB · Starter QB	18.0	+2.6	100%	—	0%	—	19/32, 193 yd, 2 TD, 1 INT · 2 car, 23 yd
Xavier HutchinsonWR · Rotational Receiver	17.9	+7.8	71%	74%	16%	15%	5/6, 69 yd, 1 TD
Woody MarksRB · Committee Back	15.1	+3.2	40%	36%	11%	0%	11 car, 62 yd · 4/4, 49 yd
George KittleTE · Rotational Receiver	14.3	+6.3	90%	86%	16%	8%	4/5, 43 yd, 1 TD
Jayden HigginsWR · Featured Receiver	13.4	−2.9	82%	76%	21%	29%	4/8, 34 yd, 1 TD
Jaylin NoelWR · Rotational Receiver	11.3	+1.4	39%	38%	16%	23%	5/6, 63 yd
Christian McCaffreyRB · Bell Cow Back	9.8	−2.2	96%	89%	19%	5%	8 car, 25 yd · 3/6, 43 yd
Nick ChubbRB · Committee Back	8.9	−2.9	44%	33%	5%	0%	17 car, 56 yd · 2/2, 13 yd
Braxton BerriosWR · Rotational Receiver	8.8	+1.1	29%	38%	13%	8%	5/5, 38 yd
Jauan JenningsWR · Featured Receiver	8.5	−4.2	85%	78%	23%	38%	4/7, 45 yd
Kendrick BourneWR · Rotational Receiver	7.4	+1.0	79%	76%	13%	22%	3/4, 44 yd
Jake TongesTE · Rotational Receiver	7.2	+3.6	—	—	—	—	5 snaps — too few to rate.
Demarcus RobinsonWR · Rotational Receiver	4.5	−1.1	56%	62%	10%	7%	2/3, 5 yd
Dalton SchultzTE · Rotational Receiver	4.4	−0.2	61%	79%	8%	11%	2/3, 24 yd
Jared WayneWR · Rotational Receiver	4.0	+0.5	44%	33%	5%	5%	2/2, 20 yd
Dare OgunbowaleRB	2.7	+0.4	16%	24%	3%	0%	1 car, 9 yd · 1/1, 8 yd
Jordan WatkinsWR · Rotational Receiver	1.7	−1.4	—	—	—	—	6 snaps — too few to rate.
Kyle JuszczykRB	1.4	−1.1	42%	30%	6%	2%	1/2, 4 yd
Harrison BryantTE · Rotational Receiver	0.0	−2.8	28%	12%	3%	7%	0/1, 0 yd
British BrooksRB	0.0	—	14%	7%	0%	—	No touches.
Dameon PierceRB	0.0	—	—	—	—	—	Did not take a snap.
Brian RobinsonRB	0.0	—	—	—	—	—	2 snaps — too few to rate.
Luke FarrellTE · Rotational Receiver	0.0	—	—	—	—	—	3 snaps — too few to rate.
Skyy MooreWR · Rotational Receiver	0.0	−2.0	19%	16%	3%	14%	0/1, 0 yd

5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.

Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.

The Film Room · post-game

Post-game film: 166 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 153 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 161. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.

Possession by possession

The field rail

8 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was HOU moving 94 yards from the HOU 6 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; HOU attacks right, SF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.

Every snap

Play stream

166 of 166 plays

Team

Quarter

Down

Play type

Expected points added

Event

Charted

Plays shown

166

EPA per play

+0.12

Success rate

45%

Yards

700

Who was on the field

Personnel groupings

Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.

Texans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR40+0.4373%

49ers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR26+0.0288%

49ers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR17-0.1659%

Texans1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR11+0.0418%

Texans1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR9+0.4922%

Texans2 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR5-0.2140%

Texans2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5-0.1820%

Texans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——

49ers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR1——

49ers2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——

snapsepapass rate

166 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved

Every play

Ball

When

Play

Only

Who

166 plays

Bar length is win probability the play moved

1st quarter38 plays

How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.5 seconds
49ers0Texans3

Field goal20 plays, from the Texans 28 to the 49ers 14

Punt8 plays, from the 49ers 35 to the 49ers 38

The period ended9 plays, from the Texans 13 to the 49ers 20

2nd quarter47 plays

49ers0Texans6

Field goal1 play

Punt5 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the 49ers 33

49ers0Texans12
49ers0Texans13

Touchdown11 plays, from the Texans 18 to the 49ers 12

Punt5 plays, from the 49ers 35 to the 49ers 40

49ers0Texans16

Field goal14 plays, from the Texans 20 to the 49ers 18

49ers6Texans16
49ers7Texans16

Touchdown7 plays, from the Texans 35 to the Texans 17

Intercepted3 plays, from the Texans 29 to the Texans 31

3rd quarter39 plays

Punt5 plays, from the 49ers 40 to the 49ers 47

49ers7Texans22
49ers7Texans23

Touchdown14 plays, from the Texans 6 to the 49ers 30

49ers13Texans23
49ers15Texans23

Touchdown17 plays, from the 49ers 24 to the Texans 2

The period ended3 plays

4th quarter42 plays

49ers15Texans26

Field goal10 plays, from the Texans 45 to the 49ers 11

Punt5 plays

Punt6 plays, from the Texans 28 to the Texans 46

Intercepted8 plays, from the 49ers 1 to the Texans 29

The period ended7 plays, from the Texans 1 to the Texans 7

Turnover on downs4 plays

The period ended2 plays

Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published

Just the plays, on their own page: 49ers at Texans, every play.

Full stat lines

Box score

San Francisco 49ers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Mac Jones	19/32	193	2	1	2	−2.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Christian McCaffrey	8	25	3.1	0	−0.7
Mac Jones	2	23	11.5	0	+1.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Jauan Jennings	4	7	45	0	23%	−1.1
Kendrick Bourne	3	4	44	0	13%	+2.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Tatum Bethune	4	10	0.0	0	0
Dee Winters	7	4	0.0	0	0
Malik Mustapha	6	5	0.0	0	0
Upton Stout

Houston Texans

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
C.J. Stroud	30/39	318	2	1	0	+19.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Woody Marks

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Xavier Hutchinson	5	6	69	1	16%	+4.9
Jaylin Noel	5	6	63	0	16%	+5.3
Woody Marks	4	4	49	0	11%	+1.8
Braxton Berrios	5	5	38	0	13%	+4.1
Jayden Higgins	4	8	34	1	21%	+1.5
Dalton Schultz	2	3	24	0	8%	+1.6
Jared Wayne	2	2	20	0	5%	+0.6
Nick Chubb	2	2	13	0	5%	+0.9
Dare Ogunbowale	1	1	8	0	3%	−0.2
Harrison Bryant	0	1	0	0	3%	−0.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Jalen Pitre	3	5	0.0	0	0
Kamari Lassiter	3	3	0.0	1	1
Henry To'oTo'o	1	3	0.0	0	1
M.J. Stewart	2	2	0.0	0	0
Azeez Al-Shaair	1	3	0.0	0	1
British Brooks	2	1	0.0	0	0
Calen Bullock	2	1	0.0	0	0
Derek Stingley Jr.	2	0	0.0	0	1
Derek Barnett	2	0	1.0	0	0
E.J. Speed	2	0	0.0	0	0

Scores & Schedule.

The game.

Scores & Schedule.

The game.

Houston Texans 26, 49ers 15 — with the result never quite settled.

How the game was won

Highest-leverage plays

The margin ledger

Situational splits

The Read

Was this normal for them?

The Game Day Roster

Top performers

The Opportunity Board

Every snap, where it happened

The field rail

Play stream

Personnel groupings

Every play

1st quarter38 plays

2nd quarter47 plays

3rd quarter39 plays

4th quarter42 plays

Box score

San Francisco 49ers

Passing

Rushing

Receiving

Defense (top contributors)

Houston Texans

Passing

Rushing

Take it with you

Betting context

Game environment

Receiving

Defense (top contributors)