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2025 Week 8 · Sun, Oct 26, 2025 · NRG Stadium

San Francisco 49ers

15

Houston TexansWinner

26

HOU -2.5 ✓U 41.5 ✓Dome

Houston Texans 26–15. Biggest swing: Q1 11:01, HOU +7% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3HOU ↑SF ↓
Q1 · 11:01SF 0 — HOU 0HOU ball · 3rd & 11HOU 54%

(11:01) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 17-B.Berrios to SF 33 for 14 yards (53-D.Winters).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q1 · 11:01HOU +7% win prob(11:01) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 17-B.Berrios to SF 33 for 14 yards (53-D.Winters).
  2. Q1 · 3:01HOU +7% win prob(3:01) 57-B.Fisher reported in as eligible. 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 27-W.Marks to SF 32 for 50 yards (27-J.Brown).
  3. Q2 · 0:29HOU +7% win prob(:29) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass deep middle to 85-G.Kittle for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  4. Q2 · 10:18HOU +7% win prob(10:18) 57-B.Fisher reported in as eligible. 7-C.Stroud pass deep left to 14-J.Noel pushed ob at SF 23 for 44 yards (6-M.Mustapha).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 5:24HOU Field goal

    (5:24) 15-K.Fairbairn 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

    Score after this play: SF 0 — HOU 3
  2. Q2 · 15:00HOU Field goal

    (15:00) 15-K.Fairbairn 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

    Score after this play: SF 0 — HOU 6
  3. Q2 · 7:36HOU Touchdown

    (7:36) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 81-J.Higgins for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: SF 0 — HOU 13
  4. Q2 · 1:02HOU Field goal

    (1:02) 15-K.Fairbairn 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

    Score after this play: SF 0 — HOU 16
  5. Q2 · 0:29SF Touchdown

    (:29) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass deep middle to 85-G.Kittle for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: SF 7 — HOU 16
  6. Q3 · 7:35HOU Touchdown

    (7:35) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 19-X.Hutchinson for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ** Injury Update: HOU-17-B.Berrios has returned to the game. (kick good)

    Score after this play: SF 7 — HOU 23
  7. Q3 · 0:33SF Touchdown

    (:33) 10-M.Jones pass short right to 88-J.Tonges for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)

    Score after this play: SF 15 — HOU 23
  8. Q4 · 9:44HOU Field goal

    (9:44) 15-K.Fairbairn 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

    Score after this play: SF 15 — HOU 26

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric49ersTexans
Offensive plays4574
Total yards225475 (edge)
Yards per play5.06.4 (edge)
Expected points added / play-0.040.24 (edge)
Success rate38%49% (edge)
Dropback rate82%57%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.030.53 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.09 (edge)-0.15
Third downs3/99/16 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)46 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps1423 (edge)
Sacks taken20 (edge)
Turnovers11

Texans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.24 expected points added per play vs -0.04.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · HOU

C.J. StroudQB

30/39, 318 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

19.2 expected points added · +8.5% completion over expected

Passing · SF

Mac JonesQB

19/32, 193 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

-2.8 expected points added · -2.3% completion over expected

Rushing · HOU

Woody MarksRB

11 att, 62 yds, 0 TD

-0.7 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · HOU

Nick ChubbRB

17 att, 56 yds, 0 TD

-5.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · HOU

Xavier HutchinsonWR

5/6 for 69 yds, 1 TD

16% of team targets · 4.9 expected points added

Receiving · HOU

Jaylin NoelWR

5/6 for 63 yds, 0 TD

16% of team targets · 5.3 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1HOUHOU 2817679:39Field goal +3
2SFSF 356181:44Punt
3HOUHOU 139713:40Field goal +3
4SFSF 25571:32Punt
5HOUHOU 1811925:53Touchdown +7
6SFSF 35551:40Punt
7HOUHOU 2011674:54Field goal +3
8SFHOU 356350:33Touchdown +7
9HOUHOU 29320:25Interception
10SFSF 40571:24Punt
11HOUHOU 613946:07Touchdown +7
12SFSF 2414787:01Touchdown +8
13HOUHOU 3111585:47Field goal +3
14SFSF 325-11:43Punt
15HOUHOU 286183:45Punt
16SFSF 18702:17Interception
17HOUHOU 1461:03Punt
18SF50460:44Turnover on downs
19HOUHOU 44100:09End of game

8 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Texans gained 94 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

San Francisco 49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Mac Jones19/32193212-2.8

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Christian McCaffrey8253.10-0.7
Mac Jones22311.501.7

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Jauan Jennings4745023%-1.1
Kendrick Bourne3444013%2.6
Christian McCaffrey3643019%0.1
George Kittle4543116%2.0
Jordan Watkins12706%-1.3
Demarcus Robinson235010%-0.3
Kyle Juszczyk12406%-1.0
Jake Tonges11213%0.7
Skyy Moore01003%-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Tatum Bethune4100.000
Malik Mustapha650.000
Dee Winters740.000
Upton Stout630.000
Renardo Green440.000
Curtis Robinson240.000
Ji'Ayir Brown410.000
Robert Beal Jr.230.000
Sam Okuayinonu210.000
Mykel Williams210.000

Houston Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
C.J. Stroud30/3931821019.2

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Woody Marks11625.60-0.7
Nick Chubb17563.30-5.3
C.J. Stroud7304.304.3
Dare Ogunbowale199.00-0.2

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Xavier Hutchinson5669116%4.9
Jaylin Noel5663016%5.3
Woody Marks4449011%1.8
Braxton Berrios5538013%4.1
Jayden Higgins4834121%1.5
Dalton Schultz232408%1.6
Jared Wayne222005%0.6
Nick Chubb221305%0.9
Dare Ogunbowale11803%-0.2
Harrison Bryant01003%-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Jalen Pitre350.000
Kamari Lassiter330.011
M.J. Stewart220.000
Azeez Al-Shaair130.001
Henry To'oTo'o130.001
Calen Bullock210.000
British Brooks210.000
Derek Barnett201.000
Derek Stingley Jr.200.001
E.J. Speed200.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
HOU -2.5
Closing total
41.5
SF moneyline
+130
HOU moneyline
-155

Texans closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 11.

Total closed 41.5; the game landed 41 — under by 0.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
NRG Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · astroturf
Kickoff weather
Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee
Alan Eck
Rest
SF 7 days · HOU 6 days
Coaches
Kyle Shanahan vs DeMeco Ryans