For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending.mdto those URLs or by sendingAccept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:22 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2025 Week 8 · Sun, Oct 26, 2025 · Mercedes-Benz Superdome
FinalThe verdict · 2025 Week 8
It turned at Q2 6:48, 2nd and 1, on Anthony Nelson — 16.7 win-probability points to the Buccaneers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 6:48 · 2nd and 1
Anthony Nelson
Buccaneers
(6:48) (Shotgun) 2-S.Rattler pass short right intended for 87-F.Moreau INTERCEPTED by 98-A.Nelson at NO 3. 98-A.Nelson for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on NO-71-K.Banks, Illegal Formation, declined.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23–3 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 6:48, Buccaneers +16.7% win probability on one snap.
16.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Giveaways
Buccaneers won this one — 1 giveaway, against Saints at 5 giveaways.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Saints owned this one and still lost it — 8 of 16 on third down, against Buccaneers at 3 of 13 on third down.
Saintsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Red zone
Buccaneers won this one — 1 touchdown on 2 trips, against Saints at 0 touchdowns on 1 trip.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Buccaneers won this one — -0.15 expected points per snap, against Saints at -0.47 expected points per snap.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 9.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 25 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Saints.
(6:48) (Shotgun) 2-S.Rattler pass short right intended for 87-F.Moreau INTERCEPTED by 98-A.Nelson at NO 3. 98-A.Nelson for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on NO-71-K.Banks, Illegal Formation, declined.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Anthony Nelson's 3-yard touchdown with 6:48 left in the 2nd put Tampa Bay Buccaneers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Anthony Nelson3-yd defence TD3-yard touchdownthe defence scored itLead never changed again+77–06 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Buccaneerscategory by categorySaints
Saints ahead 5–4 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Buccaneers, in red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.51 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Buccaneers ran 56 snaps at a 48% dropback rate against Saints’s 70 at 86%. Red-zone trips: Buccaneers 2, Saints 1.
Saints outgained Buccaneers 275-212 but lost the turnover battle 5-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
NO's blitz rate sent, 66.7%, was the highest of the 26 team-games charted in week 8 — 7.8 points clear of the next team along.
27 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 13.9 points.
NO's early-down pass rate, 84.0%, was the highest of the 26 team-games charted in week 8 — 7.5 points clear of the next team along.
50 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.7 points.
NO's pass rate over expected, +9.5 pts, is past their previous high of −0.4 pts in week 7 — the highest of their 8 charted games through week 8.
70 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.8 points.
NO's fourth-and-short go rate, 100.0%, sat 51.2 points above their season number of 48.8% — they went for it by 2.4 times their own 21.6-point weekly swing.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 10 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 21.6 points.
TB's early-down pass rate turned over: 79.5% in week 7 against 43.9% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.8 of their own weekly swings across the two.
41 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.7 points.
TB's sack or hit rate turned over: 26.5% in week 7 against 11.7% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
60 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 19 pts
Over Expected room →Buccaneers-6.6 ptsright on their number · −3.3 vs their -3.3 pts, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (−0.38× that swing) · 56 snaps
Saints9.5 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +12.9 vs their -3.4 pts, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (+1.89× that swing) · 70 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 22% to 89%
Tendencies room →Buccaneers43.9%inside their normal wobble · −10.3 vs their 54.2%, and they swing ±12.7 week to week (−0.81× that swing) · 41 early downs
Saints84.0%off script — passed early · +25.2 vs their 58.8%, and they swing ±11.7 week to week (+2.15× that swing) · 50 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 38%
Tendencies room →Buccaneers22.2%inside their normal wobble · +5.2 vs their 17.1%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (+0.62× that swing) · 27 dropbacks
Saints13.3%inside their normal wobble · −5.5 vs their 18.8%, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (−0.78× that swing) · 60 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22% to 112%
Fourth Down room →Buccaneers50.0%right on their number · +4.9 vs their 45.1%, and they swing ±26.4 week to week (+0.19× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
Saints100.0%off script — went for it · +51.2 vs their 48.8%, and they swing ±21.6 week to week (+2.37× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 72%
Tendencies room →Buccaneers41.7%right on their number · +4.0 vs their 37.7%, and they swing ±9.2 week to week (+0.44× that swing) · 60 dropbacks
Saints66.7%off script — sent pressure · +34.1 vs their 32.6%, and they swing ±13.9 week to week (+2.46× that swing) · 27 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 31%
Tendencies room →Buccaneers11.7%right on their number · −1.6 vs their 13.3%, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (−0.23× that swing) · 60 dropbacks
Saints11.1%inside their normal wobble · −3.2 vs their 14.3%, and they swing ±5.1 week to week (−0.63× that swing) · 27 dropbacks
NO's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 66.7%, 34.1 points above their season mean of 32.6% and 2.5 times their own 13.9-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
New Orleans Saints
48 dressed · 6 inactive
Inactive · 6
Who moved the needle
Passing · TB
15/24, 152 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
-1.8 expected points added · -9.6% completion over expected
Passing · NO
15/21, 136 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT
-7.0 expected points added · +5.6% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Alvin Kamara banked 0.8 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashid ShaheedWR · Featured Receiver | 14.5 | −3.1 | 78% | 72% | 24% | 26% | 9/12, 75 yd |
| Chris OlaveWR · Featured Receiver | 14.0 | −5.2 | 93% | 90% | 24% | 31% | 1 car, -3 yd · 8/12, 63 yd |
| Juwan JohnsonTE · Rotational Receiver | 10.3 | −2.4 | 76% | 72% | 16% | 21% | 5/8, 53 yd |
| Sean TuckerRB · Committee Back | 10.2 | −4.8 | 34% | 26% | 0% | — | 12 car, 42 yd, 1 TD |
| Tez JohnsonWR · Alpha Receiver | 9.3 | −1.7 | 71% | 96% | 25% | 28% | 5/6, 43 yd |
| Rachaad WhiteRB · Committee Back | 8.1 | −10.9 | 55% | 70% | 8% | 0% | 13 car, 35 yd · 2/2, 26 yd |
| Cade OttonTE · Featured Receiver | 8.0 | +0.3 | 97% | 100% | 21% | 14% | 4/5, 40 yd |
| Alvin KamaraRB | 6.5 | +0.8 | 51% | 44% | 4% | 1% | 6 car, 21 yd · 2/2, 24 yd |
| Emeka EgbukaWR · Alpha Receiver | 6.5 | −13.3 | 88% | 96% | 38% | 61% | 3/9, 35 yd |
| Brandin CooksWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.2 | −0.4 | 61% | 59% | 8% | 3% | 3/4, 22 yd |
| Tyler ShoughQB · Starter QB | 4.3 | −7.6 | 54% | — | 0% | — | 17/30, 128 yd, 1 INT · 3 car, 12 yd |
| Devin NealRB | 4.1 | −0.1 | 46% | 48% | 6% | 0% | 3/3, 11 yd |
| Baker MayfieldQB · Starter QB | 4.1 | −9.8 | 97% | — | 0% | — | 15/24, 152 yd |
| Spencer RattlerQB · Starter QB | 2.6 | −4.9 | 46% | — | 0% | — | 15/21, 136 yd, 1 INT · 3 car, 12 yd |
| Taysom HillQB | 2.2 | −0.4 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Devaughn VeleWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.0 | −5.3 | 51% | 46% | 10% | 17% | 1/5, 10 yd |
| Sterling ShepardWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.8 | −3.9 | 41% | 67% | 8% | 0% | 1/2, 8 yd |
| Josh WilliamsRB | 1.1 | −0.9 | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Foster MoreauTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.2 | 18% | 13% | 2% | 0% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Jack StollTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.4 | 12% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Mason TiptonWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −2.3 | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Kameron JohnsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Saints attack right, the Buccaneers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(6:48) (Shotgun) 2-S.Rattler pass short right intended for 87-F.Moreau INTERCEPTED by 98-A.Nelson at NO 3. 98-A.Nelson for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on NO-71-K.Banks, Illegal Formation, declined.
Q2 6:48 · Saints · 2nd & 1 at NO 10 · gained nothing · -7.44 EP · −21.4% win probability
156 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 167 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 156 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 162. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
5 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was TB moving 91 yards from the TB 8 for a turnover on downs. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NO attacks right, TB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
167 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
167 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, the ball was not catchable.
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket, it should have been intercepted.
Buccaneers6
Saints0Buccaneers7Saints0How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
From outside the pocket.
Buccaneers7Saints3Buccaneers13Saints3Buccaneers14Saints3Buccaneers17Saints3Buccaneers20Saints3Buccaneers23Saints3Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Buccaneers at Saints, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 15/24 | 152 | 0 | 0 | 3 | −1.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Tucker | 12 | 42 | 3.5 | 1 | −3.1 |
| Rachaad White | 13 | 35 | 2.7 | 0 | −1.6 |
| Josh Williams | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 | −1.9 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tez Johnson | 5 | 6 | 43 | 0 | 25% | +1.5 |
| Cade Otton | 4 | 5 | 40 | 0 | 21% | +2.7 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lavonte David | 3 | 7 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tykee Smith | 4 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| SirVocea Dennis | 4 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Antoine Winfield Jr. |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Rattler | 15/21 | 136 | 0 | 1 | 3 | −7.0 |
| Tyler Shough | 17/30 | 128 | 0 | 1 | 2 | −15.1 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2025_08_TB_NO
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Buccaneers closed -4.5 and covered, winning by 20.
Total closed 46.5; the game landed 26 — under by 20.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| Emeka Egbuka | 3 | 9 | 35 | 0 | 38% | −2.3 |
| Rachaad White | 2 | 2 | 26 | 0 | 8% | +2.7 |
| Sterling Shepard | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 8% | +0.4 |
| 4 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 1 |
| 1 |
| Zyon McCollum | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Jacob Parrish | 5 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jamel Dean | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Deion Jones | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Anthony Nelson | 2 | 2 | 2.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Benjamin Morrison | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara | 6 | 21 | 3.5 | 0 | −0.7 |
| Spencer Rattler | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 | −5.5 |
| Tyler Shough | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 | +0.8 |
| Taysom Hill | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 | +0.5 |
| Chris Olave | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 | −1.3 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashid Shaheed | 9 | 12 | 75 | 0 | 24% | −2.6 |
| Chris Olave | 8 | 12 | 63 | 0 | 24% | −4.3 |
| Juwan Johnson | 5 | 8 | 53 | 0 | 16% | −0.6 |
| Alvin Kamara | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 | 4% | +1.5 |
| Brandin Cooks | 3 | 4 | 22 | 0 | 8% | +3.0 |
| Devin Neal | 3 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 6% | −3.0 |
| Devaughn Vele | 1 | 5 | 10 | 0 | 10% | −1.2 |
| Taysom Hill | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 2% | +0.2 |
| Jack Stoll | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2% | −3.5 |
| Mason Tipton | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2% | −0.5 |
| Foster Moreau | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2% | −7.4 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demario Davis | 4 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Justin Reid | 4 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Rumph II | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Davon Godchaux | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Pete Werner | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kool-Aid McKinstry | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Jonas Sanker | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chase Young | 1 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 | 1 |
| Isaiah Stalbird | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nathan Shepherd | 1 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
