2025 Week 8 · Sun, Oct 26, 2025 · Mercedes-Benz Superdome

Tampa Bay BuccaneersWinner

New Orleans Saints

TB -4.5 ✓U 46.5 ✓DomeBuccaneers closed -4.5 and covered, winning by 20.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23–3 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 6:48, TB +17% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 6:48TB 6 — NO 0NO ball · 2nd & 1TB 65%

(6:48) (Shotgun) 2-S.Rattler pass short right intended for 87-F.Moreau INTERCEPTED by 98-A.Nelson at NO 3. 98-A.Nelson for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on NO-71-K.Banks, Illegal Formation, declined.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 6:48TB +17% win prob(6:48) (Shotgun) 2-S.Rattler pass short right intended for 87-F.Moreau INTERCEPTED by 98-A.Nelson at NO 3. 98-A.Nelson for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on NO-71-K.Banks, Illegal Formation, declined.
Q1 · 12:25TB +10% win prob(12:25) (Shotgun) 2-S.Rattler scrambles left guard to TB 34 for 7 yards (98-A.Nelson; 8-S.Dennis). FUMBLES (98-A.Nelson), touched at TB 33, RECOVERED by TB-54-L.David at TB 32.
Q2 · 0:57TB +7% win prob(:57) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield sacked at TB 40 for -11 yards (99-C.Young). FUMBLES (99-C.Young) [99-C.Young], touched at TB 42, RECOVERED by NO-99-C.Young at TB 40. 99-C.Young to TB 45 for -5 yards (62-G.Barton).
Q2 · 7:28TB +7% win prob(7:28) 44-S.Tucker left guard to NO 1 for no gain (58-C.Rumph; 93-N.Shepherd).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q2 · 6:48TB Touchdown
(6:48) (Shotgun) 2-S.Rattler pass short right intended for 87-F.Moreau INTERCEPTED by 98-A.Nelson at NO 3. 98-A.Nelson for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on NO-71-K.Banks, Illegal Formation, declined. (kick good)
Score after this play: TB 7 — NO 0
Q2 · 0:06NO Field goal
(:06) 19-B.Grupe 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger.
Score after this play: TB 7 — NO 3
Q3 · 10:12TB Touchdown
(10:12) 44-S.Tucker up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: TB 14 — NO 3
Q3 · 4:07TB Field goal
(4:07) 4-C.McLaughlin 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
Score after this play: TB 17 — NO 3
Q4 · 14:08TB Field goal
(14:08) 4-C.McLaughlin 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
Score after this play: TB 20 — NO 3
Q4 · 9:32TB Field goal
(9:32) 4-C.McLaughlin 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
Score after this play: TB 23 — NO 3

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Buccaneers	Saints
Offensive plays	56	70
Total yards	212	275 (edge)
Yards per play	3.8	3.9 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.15 (edge)	-0.47
Success rate	34%	39% (edge)
Dropback rate	48%	86%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.07 (edge)	-0.51
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.22 (edge)	-0.24
Third downs	3/13	8/16 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	3 (edge)	1
First downs gained on snaps	13	18 (edge)
Sacks taken	3 (edge)	5
Turnovers	1 (edge)	5

Saints outgained Buccaneers 275–212 but lost the turnover battle 5–1. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · TB

Baker MayfieldQB

15/24, 152 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-1.8 expected points added · -9.6% completion over expected

Passing · NO

Spencer RattlerQB

15/21, 136 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-7.0 expected points added · +5.6% completion over expected

Rushing · TB

Sean TuckerRB

12 att, 42 yds, 1 TD

-3.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · TB

Rachaad WhiteRB

13 att, 35 yds, 0 TD

-1.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NO

Rashid ShaheedWR

9/12 for 75 yds, 0 TD

24% of team targets · -2.6 expected points added

Receiving · NO

Chris OlaveWR

8/12 for 63 yds, 0 TD

24% of team targets · -4.3 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	NO	NO 37	6	29	2:47	Fumble
2	TB	TB 32	6	3	3:14	Punt
3	NO	NO 28	11	31	6:17	Punt
4	TB	TB 8	17	81	10:19	Turnover on downs
5	NO	NO 1	2	9	0:42	Defensive touchdown
6	NO	NO 20	7	34	2:43	Punt
7	TB	TB 13	4	8	2:10	Punt
8	NO	NO 34	1	10	0:04	Fumble
9	TB	NO 47	3	-11	0:57	Fumble
10	NO	TB 45	6	15	0:46	Field goal +3
11	TB	—	1	0	0:01	End of half
12	TB	TB 27	12	73	4:52	Touchdown +7
13	NO	NO 15	6	13	1:49	Punt
14	TB	TB 45	7	28	4:17	Field goal +3
15	NO	NO 30	7	18	2:34	Interception
16	TB	50	7	16	2:25	Field goal +3
17	NO	NO 24	8	20	2:19	Turnover on downs
18	TB	NO 44	4	8	2:18	Field goal +3
19	NO	NO 33	13	43	4:34	Turnover on downs
20	TB	TB 24	4	6	2:23	Punt
21	NO	NO 19	14	53	2:29	End of game

5 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Buccaneers gained 81 scrimmage yards over 17 plays for a turnover on downs.

Full stat lines

Box score

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Baker Mayfield	15/24	152	0	0	3	-1.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Sean Tucker	12	42	3.5	1	-3.1
Rachaad White	13	35	2.7	0	-1.6
Josh Williams	4	11	2.8	0	-1.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Tez Johnson	5	6	43	25%	1.5
Cade Otton	4	5	40	21%	2.7
Emeka Egbuka	3	9	35	38%	-2.3
Rachaad White	2	2	26	8%	2.7
Sterling Shepard	1	2	8	8%	0.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Lavonte David	3	7	0.0	0	0
Tykee Smith	4	4	0.0	0	1
SirVocea Dennis	4	3	1.0	0	0
Antoine Winfield Jr.	4	2	0.0	1	1
Jacob Parrish	5	1	1.0	0	0
Zyon McCollum	2	4	0.0	0	2
Jamel Dean	5	1	0.0	0	0
Anthony Nelson	2	2	2.0	1	1
Deion Jones	4	0	0.0	0	0
Benjamin Morrison	2	1	0.0	0	1

New Orleans Saints

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Spencer Rattler	15/21	136	0	1	3	-7.0
Tyler Shough	17/30	128	0	1	2	-15.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Alvin Kamara	6	21	3.5	-0.7
Spencer Rattler	3	12	4.0	-5.5
Tyler Shough	3	12	4.0	0.8
Taysom Hill	2	6	3.0	0.5
Chris Olave	1	-3	-3.0	-1.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Rashid Shaheed	9	12	75	24%	-2.6
Chris Olave	8	12	63	24%	-4.3
Juwan Johnson	5	8	53	16%	-0.6
Alvin Kamara	2	2	24	4%	1.5
Brandin Cooks	3	4	22	8%	3.0
Devin Neal	3	3	11	6%	-3.0
Devaughn Vele	1	5	10	10%	-1.2
Taysom Hill	1	1	6	2%	0.2
Jack Stoll	0	1	0	2%	-3.5
Foster Moreau	0	1	0	2%	-7.4
Mason Tipton	0	1	0	2%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Demario Davis	4	6	0.0	0
Justin Reid	4	3	0.5	0
Chris Rumph II	2	3	0.0	0
Davon Godchaux	2	3	0.0	0
Jonas Sanker	3	1	0.0	0
Pete Werner	1	3	0.0	0
Kool-Aid McKinstry	3	1	0.0	2
Chase Young	1	3	1.5	1
Nathan Shepherd	1	2	1.0	0
Isaiah Stalbird	2	1	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: TB -4.5
Closing total: 46.5
TB moneyline: -218
NO moneyline: +180

Buccaneers closed -4.5 and covered, winning by 20.

Total closed 46.5; the game landed 26 — under by 20.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Mercedes-Benz Superdome
Roof / surface: dome · sportturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Ron Torbert
Rest: TB 6 days · NO 7 days
Coaches: Todd Bowles vs Kellen Moore

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.