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2025 Week 8 · Sun, Oct 26, 2025 · Lucas Oil Stadium

Tennessee Titans

14

Indianapolis ColtsWinner

38

IND -15.5 ✓O 47.5 ✓Dome

Indianapolis Colts 38–14 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 11:59, TEN +5% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3INDTEN
Q1 · 11:59TEN 0IND 0IND ball · 1st & 10IND 96%

(11:59) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short left to 16-A.Dulin to TEN 26 for -8 yards (50-C.Barton).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q1 · 11:59TEN +5% win prob(11:59) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short left to 16-A.Dulin to TEN 26 for -8 yards (50-C.Barton).
  2. Q1 · 0:15IND +4% win prob(:15) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor right tackle for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  3. Q1 · 13:27IND +4% win prob(13:27) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass deep middle to 1-J.Downs to TEN 29 for 18 yards (25-X.Woods).
  4. Q2 · 0:01TEN +3% win prob(:01) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass incomplete short right.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 9:48IND Field goal

    (9:48) 12-M.Badgley 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

    Score after this play: TEN 0IND 3
  2. Q1 · 0:15IND Touchdown

    (:15) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor right tackle for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: TEN 0IND 10
  3. Q2 · 11:19TEN Touchdown

    (11:19) 72-O.Udoh reported in as eligible. 1-C.Ward pass short right to 84-G.Helm for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: TEN 7IND 10
  4. Q2 · 7:51IND Touchdown

    (7:51) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass deep left to 11-M.Pittman for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on TEN-18-J.Armour-Davis, Defensive Pass Interference, declined. (kick good)

    Score after this play: TEN 7IND 17
  5. Q3 · 11:22IND Touchdown

    (11:22) 28-J.Taylor left tackle for 80 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: TEN 7IND 24
  6. Q3 · 5:18IND Touchdown

    (5:18) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short right to 1-J.Downs for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on TEN-18-J.Armour-Davis, Defensive Holding, declined. (kick good)

    Score after this play: TEN 7IND 31
  7. Q4 · 14:28IND Touchdown

    (14:28) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short middle to 28-J.Taylor for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: TEN 7IND 38
  8. Q4 · 2:40TEN Touchdown

    (2:40) 2-T.Spears left tackle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: TEN 14IND 38

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricTitansColts
Offensive plays6652
Total yards341420 (edge)
Yards per play5.28.1 (edge)
Expected points added / play-0.090.38 (edge)
Success rate41%44% (edge)
Dropback rate64%67%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.190.33 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.090.49 (edge)
Third downs6/15 (edge)3/9
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)78 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps1821 (edge)
Sacks taken43 (edge)
Turnovers10 (edge)

Colts won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.38 expected points added per play vs -0.09.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · IND

Daniel JonesQB

21/29, 272 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

13.8 expected points added · +13.4% completion over expected

Passing · TEN

Cam WardQB

22/38, 259 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-7.9 expected points added · -7.2% completion over expected

Rushing · IND

Jonathan TaylorRB

12 att, 153 yds, 2 TD

10.8 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · TEN

Tyjae SpearsRB

9 att, 59 yds, 1 TD

6.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · IND

Michael PittmanWR

8/9 for 95 yds, 1 TD

32% of team targets · 7.1 expected points added

Receiving · TEN

Chimere DikeWR

7/8 for 93 yds, 0 TD

22% of team targets · 4.3 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1INDIND 2211535:17Field goal +3
2TENTEN 159304:40Punt
3INDIND 279734:54Touchdown +7
4TENTEN 318693:55Touchdown +7
5INDIND 298713:30Touchdown +7
6TENTEN 31561:30Punt
7INDIND 374-90:56Punt
8TENTEN 237293:31Punt
9INDIND 155171:21Punt
10TENTEN 204400:25Missed field goal
11INDIND 48100:01End of half
12TENTEN 307283:38Punt
13INDIND 202800:12Touchdown +7
14TENTEN 30511:32Punt
15INDIND 269844:26Touchdown +7
16TENTEN 1710243:36Turnover on downs
17INDTEN 467462:14Touchdown +7
18TENTEN 2516597:28Interception
19INDIND 20431:24Punt
20TENTEN 339502:54Touchdown +7
21INDIND 35521:24Punt
22TENTEN 15251:12End of game

8 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Colts gained 84 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Tennessee Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Cam Ward22/38259114-7.9

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Tyjae Spears9596.616.6
Tony Pollard11444.00-2.5
Julius Chestnut252.50-0.4
Cam Ward242.00-0.6
Chimere Dike111.00-0.5

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Chimere Dike7893022%4.3
Chig Okonkwo4553014%3.5
Elic Ayomanor4852022%-3.1
Tyjae Spears332308%0.7
Gunnar Helm232318%1.5
Tony Pollard12905%-0.3
Van Jefferson186022%-6.7

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Amani Hooker410.003
Darrell Baker Jr.410.000
Cedric Gray410.000
Xavier Woods310.000
Roger McCreary301.000
Cody Barton210.001
Quandre Diggs300.000
T'Vondre Sweat201.000
Shy Tuttle110.000
Dre'Mont Jones201.000

Indianapolis Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Daniel Jones21/2927230313.8
Riley Leonard0/20000-2.1

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Jonathan Taylor1215312.8210.8
Ameer Abdullah252.50-0.8
Daniel Jones133.00-0.3
Tyler Goodson221.00-1.0
Riley Leonard111.00-0.6

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Michael Pittman8995132%7.1
Alec Pierce2569018%3.4
Tyler Warren4553018%2.8
Josh Downs3339111%5.7
Jonathan Taylor222117%1.7
Ameer Abdullah11304%-0.2
Andrew Ogletree01004%-1.2
Adonai Mitchell01004%-0.9
Ashton Dulin11-804%-1.6

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Germaine Pratt350.000
Camryn Bynum320.001
Austin Ajiake230.000
Kenny Moore II410.500
Johnathan Edwards400.000
Chris Lammons400.011
Grover Stewart210.001
Nick Cross210.000
Rodney Thomas120.000
Buddy Johnson210.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
IND -15.5
Closing total
47.5
TEN moneyline
+950
IND moneyline
-1650

Colts closed -15.5 and covered, winning by 24.

Total closed 47.5; the game landed 52 — over by 4.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Lucas Oil Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee
Land Clark
Rest
TEN 7 days · IND 7 days
Coaches
Brian Callahan vs Shane Steichen

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.