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2025 Week 8 · Sun, Oct 26, 2025 · Lucas Oil Stadium
Final
TitansTennessee14
BY 24final margin
ColtsIndianapolis38
Tennessee Titans 14 at Indianapolis Colts 38. Final.
Colts -15.5 ✓O 47.5 ✓
The verdict · 2025 Week 8
Indianapolis Colts 38, Titans 14 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 11:59, 1st and 10, on Ashton Dulin — 4.9 win-probability points to the Titans on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 11:59 · 1st and 10
Ashton Dulin
Titans
(11:59) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short left to 16-A.Dulin to TEN 26 for -8 yards (50-C.Barton).
Dome
Colts closed -15.5 and covered, winning by 24.
Indianapolis Colts 38–14 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 11:59, Titans +4.9% win probability on one snap.
4.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Josh DownsColtsQ1 13:27(13:27) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass deep middle to 1-J.Downs to TEN 29 for 18 yards (25-X.Woods).
3.6pts
Jonathan TaylorColtsQ1 0:15(:15) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor right tackle for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3.8pts
What separated them
Every snap
Colts won this one — +0.38 expected points per snap, against Titans at -0.09 expected points per snap.
Coltsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Colts won this one — +0.49 expected points per carry, against Titans at +0.09 expected points per carry.
Coltsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Colts won this one — +0.33 expected points per dropback, against Titans at -0.19 expected points per dropback.
Coltsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Colts won this one — no giveaways, against Titans at 1 giveaway.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 11.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 39 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Titans.
MarketModelmodel higher on Coltshigher on Titans154 of 162 plays carry both curves
(11:59) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short left to 16-A.Dulin to TEN 26 for -8 yards (50-C.Barton).
Swing −4.9 for ColtsExpected points −1.64 for ColtsThe model had Titans 30 points higher than the market did.play 10
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 11:59TEN +5% win prob(11:59) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short left to 16-A.Dulin to TEN 26 for -8 yards (50-C.Barton).
1st · 0:15IND +4% win prob(:15) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor right tackle for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 13:27IND +4% win prob(13:27) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass deep middle to 1-J.Downs to TEN 29 for 18 yards (25-X.Woods).
1st · 5:17IND +3% win prob(5:17) 3-J.Hekker punts 48 yards to IND 7, Center-46-M.Cox. 6-A.Gould pushed ob at IND 27 for 20 yards (3-J.Hekker).
2nd · 0:06TEN +3% win prob(:06) 6-J.Slye 58 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker.
1st · 5:56TEN +3% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Mike Badgley's 43-yard field goal with 9:48 left in the 1st put Indianapolis Colts ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Lead
1st9:48Mike Badgley·43-yd field goal43-yard field goalholder R.Sanchez · snap L.RhodesLead never changed again+30–3
Colts ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.49 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.09Titans: −0.09 expected points added per play
+0.38Colts: +0.38 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.19Titans: −0.19 expected points added per play
+0.33Colts: +0.33 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.09Titans: +0.09 expected points added per play
+0.49Colts: +0.49 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Titans ran 66 snaps at a 64% dropback rate against Colts’s 52 at 67%. Red-zone trips: Titans 3, Colts 6.
NoteColts won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.38 expected points added per play vs -0.09.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
IND's pass rate over expected, +13.1 pts, was the highest of the 26 team-games charted in week 8 — 3.4 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of +10.9 pts in week 7.
52 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.4 points.
TEN's pass rate over expected turned over: +5.0 pts in week 7 against −7.9 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
66 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 21 pts
right on their number · +1.2 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±5.9 week to week (+0.21× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Colts14.3%
right on their number · +1.6 vs their 12.7%, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (+0.21× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
NoteIND's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 13.1 pts, 13.8 points above their season mean of -0.6 pts and 1.6 times their own 8.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
6 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Colts attack right, the Titans attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Titans←Colts→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Jones pass+8% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(7:51) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass deep left to 11-M.Pittman for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on TEN-18-J.Armour-Davis, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
Q2 7:51 · Colts · 1st & 10 at TEN 21 · gained 21 · +2.45 EP · +8.5% win probability
152 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 162 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 152 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 157. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was IND moving 80 yards from the IND 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; IND attacks right, TEN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
162 of 162 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
162
EPA per play
+0.08
Success rate
44%
Yards
761
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Titans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR52+0.0271%
Colts1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR39+0.4667%
Titans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12-0.4225%
Colts1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10-0.0170%
Colts1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Colts1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Titans1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Titans2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Colts2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
162 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
162 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter34 plays
Titans0Colts3
Field goal12 plays, from the Colts 22 to the Titans 18
Punt9 plays, from the Titans 15 to the Colts 49
Titans0Colts9
Titans0Colts10
Touchdown9 plays, from the Colts 27 to the Titans 18
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter47 plays
Titans6Colts10
Titans7Colts10
Touchdown8 plays, from the Titans 36 to the Colts 1
Titans7Colts16
Titans7Colts17
Touchdown8 plays, from the Colts 29 to the Titans 21
Punt6 plays
Punt4 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Titans 23 to the Colts 47
The period ended6 plays, from the Colts 15 to the Colts 32
The period ended6 plays, from the Titans 20 to the Colts 40
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter40 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Titans 30 to the Colts 42
Titans7Colts23
Titans7Colts24
Touchdown2 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Titans 30 to the Titans 31
Titans7Colts30
Titans7Colts31
Touchdown10 plays, from the Colts 26 to the Titans 10
Turnover on downs11 plays, from the Titans 17 to the Colts 44
The period ended5 plays, from the Titans 46 to the Titans 37
4th quarter41 plays
Titans7Colts37
Titans7Colts38
Touchdown3 plays, from the Titans 33 to the Titans 19
Intercepted16 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Colts 7
Punt4 plays, from the Colts 20 to the Colts 23
Titans13Colts38
Titans14Colts38
Touchdown10 plays, from the Titans 33 to the Colts 3
Punt5 plays, from the Colts 35 to the Colts 37
The period ended3 plays, from the Titans 15 to the Titans 20
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
