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polling · 1800s tick · as of 8:35 AM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2025 Week 8 · Sun, Oct 26, 2025 · Lucas Oil Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2025 Week 8
It turned at Q1 11:59, 1st and 10, on Ashton Dulin — 4.9 win-probability points to the Titans on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
Indianapolis Colts 38–14 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 11:59, Titans +4.9% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 11:59 · 1st and 10
Ashton Dulin
Titans
(11:59) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short left to 16-A.Dulin to TEN 26 for -8 yards (50-C.Barton).
4.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Every snap
Colts won this one — +0.38 expected points per snap, against Titans at -0.09 expected points per snap.
Coltsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Colts won this one — +0.49 expected points per carry, against Titans at +0.09 expected points per carry.
Coltsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Colts won this one — +0.33 expected points per dropback, against Titans at -0.19 expected points per dropback.
Coltsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Colts won this one — no giveaways, against Titans at 1 giveaway.
Coltsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 11.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 39 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Titans.
(11:59) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short left to 16-A.Dulin to TEN 26 for -8 yards (50-C.Barton).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Mike Badgley's 43-yard field goal with 9:48 left in the 1st put Indianapolis Colts ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Mike Badgley43-yd field goal43-yard field goalholder R.Sanchez · snap L.RhodesLead never changed again+30–38 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Titanscategory by categoryColts
Colts ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.49 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Titans ran 66 snaps at a 64% dropback rate against Colts’s 52 at 67%. Red-zone trips: Titans 3, Colts 6.
Colts won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.38 expected points added per play vs -0.09.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
2 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
IND's pass rate over expected, +13.1 pts, was the highest of the 26 team-games charted in week 8 — 3.4 points clear of the next team along.
52 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.4 points. · +1.6σ from their own normal
TEN's pass rate over expected turned over: +5.0 pts in week 7 against −7.9 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
66 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.4 points. · −0.7σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 21 pts
Over Expected room →Titans-7.9 ptsinside their normal wobble · −4.1 vs their -3.9 pts, and they swing ±5.4 week to week (−0.75× that swing) · 66 snaps
Colts13.1 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +13.8 vs their -0.6 pts, and they swing ±8.4 week to week (+1.63× that swing) · 52 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 31% to 86%
Tendencies room →Titans58.3%right on their number · −0.9 vs their 59.3%, and they swing ±10.4 week to week (−0.09× that swing) · 48 early downs
Colts66.7%leaned — passed early · +10.4 vs their 56.3%, and they swing ±9.8 week to week (+1.06× that swing) · 42 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 53%
Tendencies room →Titans16.7%right on their number · −2.5 vs their 19.1%, and they swing ±8.1 week to week (−0.31× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Colts31.4%right on their number · +3.3 vs their 28.1%, and they swing ±9.8 week to week (+0.34× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -44% to 138%
Fourth Down room →Titans50.0%inside their normal wobble · +14.8 vs their 35.2%, and they swing ±27.7 week to week (+0.53× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
Colts—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 47.4%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 3% to 59%
Tendencies room →Titans20.0%inside their normal wobble · −5.5 vs their 25.5%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (−0.63× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Colts26.2%inside their normal wobble · −5.9 vs their 32.0%, and they swing ±10.4 week to week (−0.56× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -6% to 32%
Tendencies room →Titans17.1%right on their number · +1.2 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±5.9 week to week (+0.21× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Colts14.3%right on their number · +1.6 vs their 12.7%, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (+0.21× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
IND's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 13.1 pts, 13.8 points above their season mean of -0.6 pts and 1.6 times their own 8.4-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Tennessee Titans
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Indianapolis Colts
48 dressed · 7 inactive
Inactive · 7
Who moved the needle
Passing · IND
21/29, 272 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT
13.8 expected points added · +13.4% completion over expected
Passing · TEN
Cam WardQB
22/38, 259 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
-7.9 expected points added · -7.2% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Jonathan Taylor banked 26.6 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan TaylorRB · Bell Cow Back | 37.4 | +26.6 | 75% | 77% | 7% | 0% | 12 car, 153 yd, 2 TD · 2/2, 21 yd, 1 TD |
| Michael PittmanWR · Alpha Receiver | 23.5 | +7.8 | 79% | 83% | 32% | 26% | 8/9, 95 yd, 1 TD |
| Daniel JonesQB · Starter QB | 23.2 | +6.4 | 89% | — | 0% | — | 21/29, 272 yd, 3 TD · 1 car, 3 yd |
| Tyjae SpearsRB | 17.2 | +6.6 | 52% | 53% | 8% | 2% | 9 car, 59 yd, 1 TD · 3/3, 23 yd |
| Chimere DikeWR · Featured Receiver | 16.4 | +3.6 | 89% | 88% | 22% | 20% | 1 car, 1 yd · 7/8, 93 yd |
| Josh DownsWR · Rotational Receiver | 12.9 | +6.2 | 64% | 66% | 11% | 11% | 3/3, 39 yd, 1 TD |
| Cam WardQB · Starter QB | 12.8 | −6.1 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 22/38, 259 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 2 car, 4 yd |
| Gunnar HelmTE · Rotational Receiver | 10.3 | +1.8 | 52% | 51% | 8% | 8% | 2/3, 23 yd, 1 TD |
| Tyler WarrenTE · Rotational Receiver | 9.3 | −0.1 | 74% | 89% | 18% | 13% | 4/5, 53 yd |
| Chig OkonkwoTE | 9.3 | +1.6 | — | — | — | — | No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash. |
| Elic AyomanorWR · Featured Receiver | 9.2 | −5.6 | 94% | 95% | 22% | 34% | 4/8, 52 yd |
| Alec PierceWR · Rotational Receiver | 8.9 | −2.7 | 81% | 86% | 18% | 54% | 2/5, 69 yd |
| Tony PollardRB · Committee Back | 6.3 | −1.4 | 46% | 44% | 5% | 2% | 11 car, 44 yd · 1/2, 9 yd |
| Ameer AbdullahRB | 1.8 | −0.9 | 19% | 23% | 4% | 0% | 2 car, 5 yd · 1/1, 3 yd |
| Van JeffersonWR · Featured Receiver | 1.6 | −11.8 | 79% | 84% | 22% | 25% | 1/8, 6 yd |
| Julius ChestnutRB | 0.5 | −0.4 | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Tyler GoodsonRB | 0.2 | −0.7 | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Ashton DulinWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.2 | −1.3 | 25% | 23% | 4% | 0% | 1/1, -8 yd |
| Riley LeonardQB | 0.1 | −1.0 | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Andrew OgletreeTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.6 | 21% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Adonai MitchellWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.6 | 17% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Anthony GouldWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| David Martin-RobinsonTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
6 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Colts attack right, the Titans attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(7:51) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass deep left to 11-M.Pittman for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on TEN-18-J.Armour-Davis, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
Q2 7:51 · Colts · 1st & 10 at TEN 21 · gained 21 · +2.45 EP · +8.5% win probability
152 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 162 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 152 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 157. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
8 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was IND moving 80 yards from the IND 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; IND attacks right, TEN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
162 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
162 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Titans0
Colts3Titans0Colts9Titans0Colts10Titans6Colts10Titans7Colts10Titans7Colts16Titans7Colts17Titans7Colts23Titans7Colts24Titans7Colts30Titans7Colts31Titans7Colts37Titans7Colts38Titans13Colts38Titans14Colts38Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Titans at Colts, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Ward | 22/38 | 259 | 1 | 1 | 4 | −7.9 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyjae Spears | 9 | 59 | 6.6 | 1 | +6.6 |
| Tony Pollard | 11 | 44 | 4.0 | 0 | −2.5 |
| Julius Chestnut |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chimere Dike | 7 | 8 | 93 | 0 | 22% | +4.3 |
| Chig Okonkwo | 4 | 5 | 53 | 0 | 14% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darrell Baker Jr. | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cedric Gray | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Amani Hooker |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Jones | 21/29 | 272 | 3 | 0 | 3 | +13.8 |
| Riley Leonard | 0/2 | 0 | 0 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2025_08_TEN_IND
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Colts closed -15.5 and covered, winning by 24.
Total closed 47.5; the game landed 52 — over by 4.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 2 |
| 5 |
| 2.5 |
| 0 |
| −0.4 |
| Cam Ward | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 | −0.6 |
| Chimere Dike | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | −0.5 |
| +3.5 |
| Elic Ayomanor | 4 | 8 | 52 | 0 | 22% | −3.1 |
| Tyjae Spears | 3 | 3 | 23 | 0 | 8% | +0.7 |
| Gunnar Helm | 2 | 3 | 23 | 1 | 8% | +1.5 |
| Tony Pollard | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 5% | −0.3 |
| Van Jefferson | 1 | 8 | 6 | 0 | 22% | −6.7 |
| 4 |
| 1 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 3 |
| Xavier Woods | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Roger McCreary | 3 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Quandre Diggs | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cody Barton | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| T'Vondre Sweat | 2 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marcus Harris | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Shy Tuttle | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| −2.1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Taylor | 12 | 153 | 12.8 | 2 | +10.8 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 | −0.8 |
| Daniel Jones | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | −0.3 |
| Tyler Goodson | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | −1.0 |
| Riley Leonard | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | −0.6 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pittman | 8 | 9 | 95 | 1 | 32% | +7.1 |
| Alec Pierce | 2 | 5 | 69 | 0 | 18% | +3.4 |
| Tyler Warren | 4 | 5 | 53 | 0 | 18% | +2.8 |
| Josh Downs | 3 | 3 | 39 | 1 | 11% | +5.7 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 2 | 2 | 21 | 1 | 7% | +1.7 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4% | −0.2 |
| Andrew Ogletree | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −1.2 |
| Adonai Mitchell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.9 |
| Ashton Dulin | 1 | 1 | -8 | 0 | 4% | −1.6 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Germaine Pratt | 3 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Camryn Bynum | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Kenny Moore II | 4 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Austin Ajiake | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Lammons | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Johnathan Edwards | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Grover Stewart | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Buddy Johnson | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rodney Thomas | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick Cross | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
