2025 Week 8 · Sun, Oct 26, 2025 · Lucas Oil Stadium
Tennessee Titans
14
Indianapolis ColtsWinner
38
Indianapolis Colts 38–14 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 11:59, TEN +5% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
Win probability
(11:59) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short left to 16-A.Dulin to TEN 26 for -8 yards (50-C.Barton).
Highest-leverage plays
- Q1 · 11:59TEN +5% win prob(11:59) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short left to 16-A.Dulin to TEN 26 for -8 yards (50-C.Barton).
- Q1 · 0:15IND +4% win prob(:15) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor right tackle for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
- Q1 · 13:27IND +4% win prob(13:27) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass deep middle to 1-J.Downs to TEN 29 for 18 yards (25-X.Woods).
- Q2 · 0:01TEN +3% win prob(:01) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass incomplete short right.
How the points landed
Scoring summary
- Q1 · 9:48IND Field goal
(9:48) 12-M.Badgley 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
Score after this play: TEN 0 — IND 3 - Q1 · 0:15IND Touchdown
(:15) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor right tackle for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: TEN 0 — IND 10 - Q2 · 11:19TEN Touchdown
(11:19) 72-O.Udoh reported in as eligible. 1-C.Ward pass short right to 84-G.Helm for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: TEN 7 — IND 10 - Q2 · 7:51IND Touchdown
(7:51) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass deep left to 11-M.Pittman for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on TEN-18-J.Armour-Davis, Defensive Pass Interference, declined. (kick good)
Score after this play: TEN 7 — IND 17 - Q3 · 11:22IND Touchdown
(11:22) 28-J.Taylor left tackle for 80 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: TEN 7 — IND 24 - Q3 · 5:18IND Touchdown
(5:18) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short right to 1-J.Downs for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on TEN-18-J.Armour-Davis, Defensive Holding, declined. (kick good)
Score after this play: TEN 7 — IND 31 - Q4 · 14:28IND Touchdown
(14:28) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short middle to 28-J.Taylor for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: TEN 7 — IND 38 - Q4 · 2:40TEN Touchdown
(2:40) 2-T.Spears left tackle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: TEN 14 — IND 38
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
| Metric | Titans | Colts |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 66 | 52 |
| Total yards | 341 | 420 (edge) |
| Yards per play | 5.2 | 8.1 (edge) |
| Expected points added / play | -0.09 | 0.38 (edge) |
| Success rate | 41% | 44% (edge) |
| Dropback rate | 64% | 67% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.19 | 0.33 (edge) |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.09 | 0.49 (edge) |
| Third downs | 6/15 (edge) | 3/9 |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 7 | 8 (edge) |
| First downs gained on snaps | 18 | 21 (edge) |
| Sacks taken | 4 | 3 (edge) |
| Turnovers | 1 | 0 (edge) |
Colts won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.38 expected points added per play vs -0.09.
Who moved the needle
Top performers
Passing · IND
21/29, 272 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT
13.8 expected points added · +13.4% completion over expected
Passing · TEN
Cam WardQB
22/38, 259 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
-7.9 expected points added · -7.2% completion over expected
Possession by possession
Drive chart
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | IND | IND 22 | 11 | 53 | 5:17 | Field goal +3 | |
| 2 | TEN | TEN 15 | 9 | 30 | 4:40 | Punt | |
| 3 | IND | IND 27 | 9 | 73 | 4:54 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 4 | TEN | TEN 31 | 8 | 69 | 3:55 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 5 | IND | IND 29 | 8 | 71 | 3:30 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 6 | TEN | TEN 31 | 5 | 6 | 1:30 | Punt | |
| 7 | IND | IND 37 | 4 | -9 | 0:56 | Punt | |
| 8 | TEN | TEN 23 | 7 | 29 | 3:31 | Punt | |
| 9 | IND | IND 15 | 5 | 17 | 1:21 | Punt | |
| 10 | TEN | TEN 20 | 4 | 40 | 0:25 | Missed field goal | |
| 11 | IND | IND 48 | 1 | 0 | 0:01 | End of half | |
| 12 | TEN | TEN 30 | 7 | 28 | 3:38 | Punt | |
| 13 | IND | IND 20 | 2 | 80 | 0:12 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 14 | TEN | TEN 30 | 5 | 1 | 1:32 | Punt | |
| 15 | IND | IND 26 | 9 | 84 | 4:26 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 16 | TEN | TEN 17 | 10 | 24 | 3:36 | Turnover on downs | |
| 17 | IND | TEN 46 | 7 | 46 | 2:14 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 18 | TEN | TEN 25 | 16 | 59 | 7:28 | Interception | |
| 19 | IND | IND 20 | 4 | 3 | 1:24 | Punt | |
| 20 | TEN | TEN 33 | 9 | 50 | 2:54 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 21 | IND | IND 35 | 5 | 2 | 1:24 | Punt | |
| 22 | TEN | TEN 15 | 2 | 5 | 1:12 | End of game |
8 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Colts gained 84 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.
Full stat lines
Box score
Tennessee Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Ward | 22/38 | 259 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -7.9 |
Rushing
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyjae Spears | 9 | 59 | 6.6 | 1 | 6.6 |
| Tony Pollard | 11 | 44 | 4.0 | 0 | -2.5 |
| Julius Chestnut | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 | -0.4 |
| Cam Ward | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 | -0.6 |
| Chimere Dike | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | -0.5 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chimere Dike | 7 | 8 | 93 | 0 | 22% | 4.3 |
| Chig Okonkwo | 4 | 5 | 53 | 0 | 14% | 3.5 |
| Elic Ayomanor | 4 | 8 | 52 | 0 | 22% | -3.1 |
| Tyjae Spears | 3 | 3 | 23 | 0 | 8% | 0.7 |
| Gunnar Helm | 2 | 3 | 23 | 1 | 8% | 1.5 |
| Tony Pollard | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 5% | -0.3 |
| Van Jefferson | 1 | 8 | 6 | 0 | 22% | -6.7 |
Defense (top contributors)
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amani Hooker | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 3 |
| Darrell Baker Jr. | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cedric Gray | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Xavier Woods | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Roger McCreary | 3 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cody Barton | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Quandre Diggs | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| T'Vondre Sweat | 2 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Shy Tuttle | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dre'Mont Jones | 2 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
Indianapolis Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Jones | 21/29 | 272 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 13.8 |
| Riley Leonard | 0/2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2.1 |
Rushing
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Taylor | 12 | 153 | 12.8 | 2 | 10.8 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 | -0.8 |
| Daniel Jones | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | -0.3 |
| Tyler Goodson | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | -1.0 |
| Riley Leonard | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | -0.6 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pittman | 8 | 9 | 95 | 1 | 32% | 7.1 |
| Alec Pierce | 2 | 5 | 69 | 0 | 18% | 3.4 |
| Tyler Warren | 4 | 5 | 53 | 0 | 18% | 2.8 |
| Josh Downs | 3 | 3 | 39 | 1 | 11% | 5.7 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 2 | 2 | 21 | 1 | 7% | 1.7 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4% | -0.2 |
| Andrew Ogletree | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | -1.2 |
| Adonai Mitchell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | -0.9 |
| Ashton Dulin | 1 | 1 | -8 | 0 | 4% | -1.6 |
Defense (top contributors)
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Germaine Pratt | 3 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Camryn Bynum | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Austin Ajiake | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kenny Moore II | 4 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Johnathan Edwards | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Lammons | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Grover Stewart | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Nick Cross | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rodney Thomas | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Buddy Johnson | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
Closing number vs result
Betting context
- Closing spread
- IND -15.5
- Closing total
- 47.5
- TEN moneyline
- +950
- IND moneyline
- -1650
Colts closed -15.5 and covered, winning by 24.
Total closed 47.5; the game landed 52 — over by 4.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
- Venue
- Lucas Oil Stadium
- Roof / surface
- closed · fieldturf
- Kickoff weather
- Indoors — weather neutralized
- Referee
- Land Clark
- Rest
- TEN 7 days · IND 7 days
- Coaches
- Brian Callahan vs Shane Steichen
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.