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polling · 1800s tick · as of 10:05 AM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2025 Week 8 · Mon, Oct 27, 2025 · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2025 Week 8
It turned at Q1 9:49, 1st and 10, on Michael Danna — 13.9 win-probability points to the Chiefs on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Kansas City Chiefs 28–7 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 9:49, Chiefs +13.9% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 9:49 · 1st and 10
Michael Danna
Chiefs
(9:49) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short left intended for 1-D.Samuel INTERCEPTED by 51-M.Danna at KC 22. 51-M.Danna to KC 32 for 10 yards (1-D.Samuel).
13.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Every snap
Chiefs won this one — +0.25 expected points per snap, against Commanders at -0.18 expected points per snap.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Chiefs won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Commanders at 4 chunk plays.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Chiefs won this one — +0.35 expected points per dropback, against Commanders at -0.24 expected points per dropback.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Chiefs won this one — 4 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Commanders at 1 touchdown on 2 trips.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 12.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 31 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Commanders.
(9:49) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short left intended for 1-D.Samuel INTERCEPTED by 51-M.Danna at KC 22. 51-M.Danna to KC 32 for 10 yards (1-D.Samuel).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Kareem Hunt's 2-yard touchdown catch with 10:19 left in the 3rd put Kansas City Chiefs ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
Kareem Hunt2-yd TD catch2-yard touchdown catchfrom Patrick MahomesLead never changed again+77–145 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Commanderscategory by categoryChiefs
Chiefs ahead 6–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Commanders ran 52 snaps at a 67% dropback rate against Chiefs’s 66 at 61%. Red-zone trips: Commanders 2, Chiefs 4.
Chiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.25 expected points added per play vs -0.18.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 24 pts
Over Expected room →Commanders7.1 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +11.5 vs their -4.4 pts, and they swing ±7.8 week to week (+1.47× that swing) · 52 snaps
Chiefs9.7 ptsinside their normal wobble · +5.9 vs their 3.8 pts, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (+0.78× that swing) · 66 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 24% to 82%
Tendencies room →Commanders63.2%leaned — passed early · +11.3 vs their 51.8%, and they swing ±10.9 week to week (+1.04× that swing) · 38 early downs
Chiefs55.6%inside their normal wobble · −6.7 vs their 62.3%, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (−0.96× that swing) · 54 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -6% to 56%
Tendencies room →Commanders8.6%leaned — dropped back clean · −18.3 vs their 26.8%, and they swing ±11.4 week to week (−1.61× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Chiefs17.5%right on their number · +1.9 vs their 15.6%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (+0.23× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 8% to 98%
Fourth Down room →Commanders—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 52.3%.
Chiefs—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 56.0%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 3% to 70%
Tendencies room →Commanders17.5%leaned — sat back · −9.5 vs their 27.0%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (−1.10× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Chiefs40.0%right on their number · +0.3 vs their 39.7%, and they swing ±11.8 week to week (+0.03× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 32%
Tendencies room →Commanders17.5%inside their normal wobble · +3.3 vs their 14.2%, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (+0.51× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Chiefs11.4%inside their normal wobble · −5.6 vs their 17.1%, and they swing ±5.7 week to week (−0.98× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
WAS's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 8.6%, 18.3 points below their season mean of 26.8% and 1.6 times their own 11.4-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Washington Commanders
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Kansas City Chiefs
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · KC
25/34, 299 yds, 3 TD, 2 INT
13.7 expected points added · +10.9% completion over expected
Passing · WAS
21/30, 213 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
-7.4 expected points added · +1.1% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Rashee Rice banked 9.6 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashee RiceWR · Alpha Receiver | 25.5 | +9.6 | 86% | 83% | 28% | 18% | 2 car, 12 yd · 9/9, 93 yd, 1 TD |
| Patrick MahomesQB · Starter QB | 23.0 | +3.2 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 25/34, 299 yd, 3 TD, 2 INT · 4 car, 30 yd |
| Travis KelceTE · Alpha Receiver | 21.9 | +7.9 | 84% | 93% | 25% | 25% | 6/8, 99 yd, 1 TD |
| Kareem HuntRB | 17.2 | +6.3 | 32% | 25% | 3% | 1% | 9 car, 40 yd, 1 TD · 1/1, 2 yd, 1 TD |
| Terry McLaurinWR · Rotational Receiver | 14.4 | +6.8 | 47% | 46% | 13% | 51% | 3/4, 54 yd, 1 TD |
| Jeremy McNicholsRB · Receiving Back | 11.8 | +2.8 | 43% | 57% | 20% | 0% | 1 car, 4 yd · 5/6, 64 yd |
| Marcus MariotaQB · Starter QB | 11.3 | −5.7 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 21/30, 213 yd, 1 TD, 2 INT · 8 car, 28 yd |
| Xavier WorthyWR · Featured Receiver | 10.3 | −1.7 | 84% | 88% | 22% | 23% | 5/7, 53 yd |
| Isiah PachecoRB | 5.8 | −1.2 | 58% | 63% | 0% | — | 12 car, 58 yd |
| Zach ErtzTE · Featured Receiver | 5.6 | −2.5 | 62% | 74% | 20% | 16% | 4/6, 16 yd |
| Luke McCaffreyWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.4 | +0.7 | 51% | 63% | 10% | 8% | 3/3, 24 yd |
| JuJu Smith-SchusterWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.9 | +1.7 | 30% | 30% | 6% | 8% | 2/2, 29 yd |
| Noah GrayTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.3 | −5.5 | 55% | 45% | 13% | 16% | 2/4, 23 yd |
| Deebo Samuel Sr.WR · Featured Receiver | 4.2 | −6.3 | 74% | 74% | 20% | 18% | 1 car, 1 yd · 3/6, 11 yd |
| John BatesTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.2 | +1.6 | 55% | 43% | 3% | 6% | 1/1, 22 yd |
| Ben SinnottTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.2 | +1.9 | 21% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 1/1, 22 yd |
| Jacory Croskey-MerrittRB · Committee Back | 2.5 | −2.7 | 57% | 43% | 3% | 0% | 9 car, 25 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Jaylin LaneWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.0 | −1.9 | 43% | 46% | 7% | 7% | 1/2, 0 yd |
| Brashard SmithRB | 0.8 | −0.9 | 13% | 13% | 0% | — | 3 car, 8 yd |
| Chris Rodriguez Jr.RB | 0.2 | −0.3 | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Marquise BrownWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −2.3 | 38% | 50% | 3% | 9% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Nikko RemigioWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Chiefs attack right, the Commanders attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(9:49) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short left intended for 1-D.Samuel INTERCEPTED by 51-M.Danna at KC 22. 51-M.Danna to KC 32 for 10 yards (1-D.Samuel).
Q1 9:49 · Commanders · 1st & 10 at KC 18 · gained nothing · -6.64 EP · −18.7% win probability
139 snaps placed · 9 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 148 plays across 17 drives, personnel groupings on 139 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 143. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
5 of 17 drives ended in points. The longest march was KC moving 94 yards from the KC 6 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; KC attacks right, WAS attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
148 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
148 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
A screen, no huddle, a man in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap, dropped.
Commanders0
Chiefs6Commanders0Chiefs7Commanders6Chiefs7Commanders7Chiefs7How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown.
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
Commanders7Chiefs13Commanders7Chiefs14Commanders7Chiefs20Commanders7Chiefs21Commanders7Chiefs27Commanders7Chiefs28Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Commanders at Chiefs, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Mariota | 21/30 | 213 | 1 | 2 | 2 | −7.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Mariota | 8 | 28 | 3.5 | 0 | +0.2 |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | 9 | 25 | 2.8 | 0 | −1.3 |
| Jeremy McNichols |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy McNichols | 5 | 6 | 64 | 0 | 20% | +4.6 |
| Terry McLaurin | 3 | 4 | 54 | 1 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quan Martin | 10 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bobby Wagner | 7 | 3 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Jeremy Reaves |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 25/34 | 299 | 3 | 2 | 3 | +13.7 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2025_08_WAS_KC
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Chiefs closed -10.5 and covered, winning by 21.
Total closed 48.5; the game landed 35 — under by 13.5.
Conditions and crew
| 1 |
| 4 |
| 4.0 |
| 0 |
| +0.0 |
| Chris Rodriguez Jr. | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | −0.5 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | −0.5 |
| 13% |
| +4.3 |
| Luke McCaffrey | 3 | 3 | 24 | 0 | 10% | +0.4 |
| John Bates | 1 | 1 | 22 | 0 | 3% | +1.4 |
| Ben Sinnott | 1 | 1 | 22 | 0 | 3% | +1.9 |
| Zach Ertz | 4 | 6 | 16 | 0 | 20% | −5.1 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 3 | 6 | 11 | 0 | 20% | −8.3 |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.4 |
| Jaylin Lane | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7% | −1.9 |
| 5 |
| 1 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Jalyn Holmes | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Magee | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Sainristil | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jer'Zhan Newton | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Frankie Luvu | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Javon Kinlaw | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyler Owens | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Isiah Pacheco | 12 | 58 | 4.8 | 0 | −0.5 |
| Kareem Hunt | 9 | 40 | 4.4 | 1 | +3.4 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 4 | 30 | 7.5 | 0 | +0.2 |
| Rashee Rice | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 | +1.1 |
| Brashard Smith | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 | −1.3 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | 6 | 8 | 99 | 1 | 25% | +2.3 |
| Rashee Rice | 9 | 9 | 93 | 1 | 28% | +7.2 |
| Xavier Worthy | 5 | 7 | 53 | 0 | 22% | +3.0 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 2 | 2 | 29 | 0 | 6% | +2.9 |
| Noah Gray | 2 | 4 | 23 | 0 | 13% | −0.7 |
| Kareem Hunt | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3% | +3.7 |
| Marquise Brown | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −3.3 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chamarri Conner | 5 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Drue Tranquill | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick Bolton | 1 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaylen Watson | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeffrey Bassa | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jerry Tillery | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Trent McDuffie | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| George Karlaftis | 1 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Bryan Cook | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jack Cochrane | 0 | 3 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
