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2025 Week 8 · Mon, Oct 27, 2025 · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
Final
CommandersWashington7
BY 21final margin
ChiefsKansas City28
Washington Commanders 7 at Kansas City Chiefs 28. Final.
Chiefs -10.5 ✓U 48.5 ✓
The verdict · 2025 Week 8
Kansas City Chiefs 28, Commanders 7 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 9:49, 1st and 10, on Michael Danna — 13.9 win-probability points to the Chiefs on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 9:49 · 1st and 10
Michael Danna
Chiefs
(9:49) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short left intended for 1-D.Samuel INTERCEPTED by 51-M.Danna at KC 22. 51-M.Danna to KC 32 for 10 yards (1-D.Samuel).
Chiefs closed -10.5 and covered, winning by 21.
Kansas City Chiefs 28–7 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 9:49, Chiefs +13.9% win probability on one snap.
13.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Bobby WagnerCommandersQ2 13:09(13:09) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle intended for 87-T.Kelce INTERCEPTED by 54-B.Wagner at WAS 40. 54-B.Wagner to WAS 41 for 1 yard (87-T.Kelce; 66-M.Caliendo).
9.8pts
Terry McLaurinCommandersQ2 1:04(1:04) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass incomplete short right to 17-T.McLaurin. The Replay Official reviewed the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short right to 17-T.McLaurin for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
9.4pts
What separated them
Every snap
Chiefs won this one — +0.25 expected points per snap, against Commanders at -0.18 expected points per snap.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Chiefs won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Commanders at 4 chunk plays.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Chiefs won this one — +0.35 expected points per dropback, against Commanders at -0.24 expected points per dropback.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Chiefs won this one — 4 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Commanders at 1 touchdown on 2 trips.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 12.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 31 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Commanders.
MarketModelmodel higher on Chiefshigher on Commanders141 of 148 plays carry both curves
(9:49) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short left intended for 1-D.Samuel INTERCEPTED by 51-M.Danna at KC 22. 51-M.Danna to KC 32 for 10 yards (1-D.Samuel).
Swing +13.9 for ChiefsExpected points +6.64 for ChiefsThe model had Commanders 27 points higher than the market did.play 11
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 9:49WAS +14% win prob(9:49) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short left intended for 1-D.Samuel INTERCEPTED by 51-M.Danna at KC 22. 51-M.Danna to KC 32 for 10 yards (1-D.Samuel).
2nd · 13:09WAS +10% win prob(13:09) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle intended for 87-T.Kelce INTERCEPTED by 54-B.Wagner at WAS 40. 54-B.Wagner to WAS 41 for 1 yard (87-T.Kelce; 66-M.Caliendo).
2nd · 1:04KC +9% win prob(1:04) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass incomplete short right to 17-T.McLaurin. The Replay Official reviewed the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short right to 17-T.McLaurin for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 10:19KC +8% win prob(10:19) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 29-K.Hunt for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 12:48KC +6% win prob(12:48) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 87-T.Kelce to WAS 9 for 38 yards (0-M.Sainristil).
1st · 5:40WAS +5% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Kareem Hunt's 2-yard touchdown catch with 10:19 left in the 3rd put Kansas City Chiefs ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
2nd1:04Terry McLaurin·11-yd TD catch11-yard touchdown catchfrom Marcus Mariotafrom Marcus Mariota+77–7
3rd10:19Kareem Hunt·2-yd TD catch2-yard touchdown catchfrom Patrick Mahomesfrom Patrick MahomesLead never changed again+77–14
3rd3:26Travis Kelce·10-yd TD catch10-yard touchdown catchfrom Patrick Mahomesfrom Patrick Mahomes+77–21
4th7:59Rashee Rice·18-yd TD catch18-yard touchdown catchfrom Patrick Mahomesfrom Patrick Mahomes+77–28
5 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Commanderscategory by categoryChiefs
Commanders2–6Chiefs
260Total yards433
5.0Yards per play6.6
40%Success rate52%
58%Third-down rate40%
1Red-zone touchdowns4
4Explosive plays9
13First downs24
2Sacks taken3
2Turnovers2
The read
Chiefs ahead 6–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.18Commanders: −0.18 expected points added per play
+0.25Chiefs: +0.25 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.24Commanders: −0.24 expected points added per play
+0.35Chiefs: +0.35 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.07Commanders: −0.07 expected points added per play
+0.10Chiefs: +0.10 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Commanders ran 52 snaps at a 67% dropback rate against Chiefs’s 66 at 61%. Red-zone trips: Commanders 2, Chiefs 4.
NoteChiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.25 expected points added per play vs -0.18.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 24 pts
inside their normal wobble · +3.3 vs their 14.2%, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (+0.51× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Chiefs11.4%
inside their normal wobble · −5.6 vs their 17.1%, and they swing ±5.7 week to week (−0.98× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
NoteWAS's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 8.6%, 18.3 points below their season mean of 26.8% and 1.6 times their own 11.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Washington Commanders
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
75Chris PaulG · Every snap100%53 snaps
76Sam CosmiG · Every snap100%53 snaps
72Josh Conerly Jr.T · Every snap100%53 snaps
8Marcus MariotaQB · Every snap100%53 snaps
63Tyler BiadaszC · Every snap100%53 snaps
74Brandon ColemanG · Heavy rotation75%40 snaps
1Deebo Samuel Sr.WR · Heavy rotation74%39 snaps
86Zach ErtzTE · Heavy rotation62%33 snaps
22Jacory Croskey-MerrittRB · Heavy rotation57%30 snaps
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Chiefs attack right, the Commanders attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Commanders←Chiefs→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
M.Mariota pass−19% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(9:49) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short left intended for 1-D.Samuel INTERCEPTED by 51-M.Danna at KC 22. 51-M.Danna to KC 32 for 10 yards (1-D.Samuel).
Q1 9:49 · Commanders · 1st & 10 at KC 18 · gained nothing · -6.64 EP · −18.7% win probability
139 snaps placed · 9 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 148 plays across 17 drives, personnel groupings on 139 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 143. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
5 of 17 drives ended in points. The longest march was KC moving 94 yards from the KC 6 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; KC attacks right, WAS attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
148 of 148 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
148
EPA per play
+0.07
Success rate
47%
Yards
692
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Chiefs1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR38+0.2258%
Commanders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR28-0.3175%
Chiefs1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR23+0.1952%
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR20-0.0440%
Commanders2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Chiefs1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Chiefs1 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Chiefs2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Commanders0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Chiefs1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
148 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
148 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter32 plays
How the play was built
A screen, no huddle, a man in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap, dropped.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.2 seconds
Intercepted10 plays, from the Commanders 43 to the Chiefs 18
Intercepted10 plays, from the Chiefs 32 to the Commanders 26
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Commanders 7 to the Chiefs 37
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter40 plays
Intercepted4 plays, from the Chiefs 41 to the Commanders 47
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Commanders 41 to the Chiefs 28
Commanders0Chiefs6
Commanders0Chiefs7
Touchdown10 plays, from the Chiefs 28 to the Commanders 1
Commanders6Chiefs7
Commanders7Chiefs7
Touchdown13 plays, from the Commanders 34 to the Chiefs 11
The period ended8 plays, from the Chiefs 15 to the Chiefs 40
3rd quarter36 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runSwingCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw6.0 seconds
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runDragCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.9 seconds
Commanders7Chiefs13
Commanders7Chiefs14
Touchdown12 plays, from the Chiefs 20 to the Commanders 2
Punt7 plays, from the Commanders 2 to the Commanders 27
Commanders7Chiefs20
Commanders7Chiefs21
Touchdown9 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Commanders 10
The period ended8 plays, from the Commanders 35 to the Chiefs 36
4th quarter40 plays
Punt1 play
Commanders7Chiefs27
Commanders7Chiefs28
Touchdown14 plays, from the Chiefs 6 to the Commanders 18
Punt6 plays, from the Commanders 35 to the Commanders 36
Punt10 plays, from the Chiefs 15 to the Chiefs 38
Intercepted7 plays, from the Commanders 20 to the Commanders 43
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Chiefs -10.5
Closing total
48.5
Commanders moneyline
+500
Chiefs moneyline
-700
Chiefs closed -10.5 and covered, winning by 21.
Total closed 48.5; the game landed 35 — under by 13.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Cool, 54°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 5 mph out of the east; 0.01 in of precipitation; overcast.
Referee
Brad Allen
Rest
Commanders 8 days · Chiefs 8 days
Coaches
Dan Quinn vs Andy Reid
(5:40) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep left intended for 5-M.Brown INTERCEPTED by 2-M.Lattimore at WAS 7. 2-M.Lattimore pushed ob at WAS 7 for no gain (5-M.Brown).
1st · 11:14KC +5% win prob(11:14) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short right to 11-L.McCaffrey to KC 22 for 9 yards (27-C.Conner).
2nd · 10:30WAS +5% win prob(10:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass incomplete deep left to 17-T.McLaurin [32-N.Bolton].
