2025 Week 8 · Mon, Oct 27, 2025 · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium

Washington Commanders

Kansas City ChiefsWinner

KC -10.5 ✓U 48.5 ✓Chiefs closed -10.5 and covered, winning by 21.

Kansas City Chiefs 28–7 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 9:49, WAS +14% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 9:49WAS 0 — KC 0WAS ball · 1st & 10KC 71%

(9:49) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short left intended for 1-D.Samuel INTERCEPTED by 51-M.Danna at KC 22. 51-M.Danna to KC 32 for 10 yards (1-D.Samuel).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 9:49WAS +14% win prob(9:49) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short left intended for 1-D.Samuel INTERCEPTED by 51-M.Danna at KC 22. 51-M.Danna to KC 32 for 10 yards (1-D.Samuel).
Q2 · 13:09WAS +10% win prob(13:09) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle intended for 87-T.Kelce INTERCEPTED by 54-B.Wagner at WAS 40. 54-B.Wagner to WAS 41 for 1 yard (87-T.Kelce; 66-M.Caliendo).
Q2 · 1:04KC +9% win prob(1:04) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass incomplete short right to 17-T.McLaurin. The Replay Official reviewed the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short right to 17-T.McLaurin for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 10:19KC +8% win prob(10:19) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 29-K.Hunt for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q2 · 5:49KC Touchdown
(5:49) (Shotgun) 29-K.Hunt up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: WAS 0 — KC 7
Q2 · 1:04WAS Touchdown
(1:04) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass incomplete short right to 17-T.McLaurin. The Replay Official reviewed the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short right to 17-T.McLaurin for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: WAS 7 — KC 7
Q3 · 10:19KC Touchdown
(10:19) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 29-K.Hunt for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: WAS 7 — KC 14
Q3 · 3:26KC Touchdown
(3:26) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 87-T.Kelce for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: WAS 7 — KC 21
Q4 · 7:59KC Touchdown
(7:59) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 4-R.Rice for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN [95-J.Newton]. (kick good)
Score after this play: WAS 7 — KC 28

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Commanders	Chiefs
Offensive plays	52	66
Total yards	260	433 (edge)
Yards per play	5.0	6.6 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.18	0.25 (edge)
Success rate	40%	52% (edge)
Dropback rate	67%	61%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.24	0.35 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.07	0.10 (edge)
Third downs	7/12 (edge)	4/10
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	4	9 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	13	24 (edge)
Sacks taken	2 (edge)	3
Turnovers	2	2

Chiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.25 expected points added per play vs -0.18.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · KC

Patrick MahomesQB

25/34, 299 yds, 3 TD, 2 INT

13.7 expected points added · +10.9% completion over expected

Passing · WAS

Marcus MariotaQB

21/30, 213 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT

-7.4 expected points added · +1.1% completion over expected

Rushing · KC

Isiah PachecoRB

12 att, 58 yds, 0 TD

-0.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · KC

Kareem HuntRB

9 att, 40 yds, 1 TD

3.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · KC

Travis KelceTE

6/8 for 99 yds, 1 TD

25% of team targets · 2.3 expected points added

Receiving · KC

Rashee RiceWR

9/9 for 93 yds, 1 TD

28% of team targets · 7.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	WAS	WAS 43	10	39	5:18	Interception
2	KC	KC 32	9	42	4:07	Interception
3	WAS	WAS 7	8	58	4:34	Turnover on downs
4	KC	KC 35	6	17	3:02	Interception
5	WAS	WAS 41	5	31	2:34	Turnover on downs
6	KC	KC 28	10	72	4:39	Touchdown +7
7	WAS	WAS 34	12	66	4:48	Touchdown +7
8	KC	KC 15	6	25	0:58	End of half
9	KC	KC 20	10	65	4:48	Touchdown +7
10	WAS	WAS 2	7	25	2:07	Punt
11	KC	KC 25	9	75	4:45	Touchdown +7
12	WAS	WAS 35	8	17	3:26	Punt
13	KC	KC 6	14	119	7:02	Touchdown +7
14	WAS	WAS 35	5	6	1:06	Punt
15	KC	KC 15	9	18	4:30	Punt
16	WAS	WAS 20	6	18	2:04	Interception
17	KC	KC 35	1	0	0:12	End of game

5 of 17 drives ended in points. Longest march: Chiefs gained 119 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Washington Commanders

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Marcus Mariota	21/30	213	1	2	2	-7.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Marcus Mariota	8	28	3.5	0.2
Jacory Croskey-Merritt	9	25	2.8	-1.3
Jeremy McNichols	1	4	4.0	0.0
Chris Rodriguez Jr.	1	2	2.0	-0.5
Deebo Samuel Sr.	1	1	1.0	-0.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Jeremy McNichols	5	6	64	0	20%	4.6
Terry McLaurin	3	4	54	1	13%	4.3
Luke McCaffrey	3	3	24	0	10%	0.4
Ben Sinnott	1	1	22	0	3%	1.9
John Bates	1	1	22	0	3%	1.4
Zach Ertz	4	6	16	0	20%	-5.1
Deebo Samuel Sr.	3	6	11	0	20%	-8.3
Jacory Croskey-Merritt	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.4
Jaylin Lane	1	2	0	0	7%	-1.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Quan Martin	10	4	0.0	0	0
Bobby Wagner	7	3	0.0	1	1
Jeremy Reaves	5	1	0.0	0	0
Jer'Zhan Newton	2	2	1.0	0	0
Jalyn Holmes	2	2	0.0	0	0
Mike Sainristil	3	1	0.0	0	0
Jordan Magee	3	1	0.0	0	0
Tyler Owens	2	1	0.0	0	0
Javon Kinlaw	1	2	0.0	0	0
Frankie Luvu	2	1	0.0	0	0

Kansas City Chiefs

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Patrick Mahomes	25/34	299	3	2	3	13.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Isiah Pacheco	12	58	4.8	0	-0.5
Kareem Hunt	9	40	4.4	1	3.4
Patrick Mahomes	4	30	7.5	0	0.2
Rashee Rice	2	12	6.0	0	1.1
Brashard Smith	3	8	2.7	0	-1.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Travis Kelce	6	8	99	1	25%	2.3
Rashee Rice	9	9	93	1	28%	7.2
Xavier Worthy	5	7	53	0	22%	3.0
JuJu Smith-Schuster	2	2	29	0	6%	2.9
Noah Gray	2	4	23	0	13%	-0.7
Kareem Hunt	1	1	2	1	3%	3.7
Marquise Brown	0	1	0	0	3%	-3.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Chamarri Conner	5	5	0.0	0	0
Drue Tranquill	4	2	0.0	0	0
Nick Bolton	1	5	0.0	0	0
Jerry Tillery	2	2	0.0	0	0
Jeffrey Bassa	2	2	0.0	0	0
Jaylen Watson	3	1	0.0	0	0
Michael Danna	1	2	1.0	1	1
George Karlaftis	1	2	1.0	0	1
Bryan Cook	1	2	0.0	0	0
Jack Cochrane	0	3	0.0	1	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: KC -10.5
Closing total: 48.5
WAS moneyline: +500
KC moneyline: -700

Chiefs closed -10.5 and covered, winning by 21.

Total closed 48.5; the game landed 35 — under by 13.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 54°F, wind 8 mph
Referee: Brad Allen
Rest: WAS 8 days · KC 8 days
Coaches: Dan Quinn vs Andy Reid