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polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:40 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2025 Week 9 · Mon, Nov 3, 2025 · AT&T Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2025 Week 9
It turned at Q2 4:04, 4th and 9 — 13.7 win-probability points to the Cowboys on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
Arizona Cardinals 27–17. Biggest swing: Q2 4:04, Cowboys +13.7% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 4:04 · 4th and 9
Unnamed on the sheet
Cowboys
(4:04) 39-P.O'Donnell punt is BLOCKED by 54-S.Williams, Center-46-A.Brewer, RECOVERED by DAL-94-M.Kneeland at ARI -8. TOUCHDOWN.
13.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Giveaways
Cardinals won this one — no giveaways, against Cowboys at 3 giveaways.
Cardinalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Cardinals won this one — 3 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Cowboys at 1 touchdown on 3 trips.
Cardinalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Cardinals won this one — +0.18 expected points per dropback, against Cowboys at -0.19 expected points per dropback.
Cardinalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Cardinals won this one — +0.11 expected points per snap, against Cowboys at -0.11 expected points per snap.
Cardinalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 3.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 9 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Cardinals.
(4:04) 39-P.O'Donnell punt is BLOCKED by 54-S.Williams, Center-46-A.Brewer, RECOVERED by DAL-94-M.Kneeland at ARI -8. TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Chad Ryland's 48-yard field goal with 3:42 left in the 1st put Arizona Cardinals ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Chad Ryland48-yd field goal48-yard field goalholder P.O'Donnell · snap A.BrewerLead never changed again+33–08 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Cardinalscategory by categoryCowboys
Cardinals ahead 6–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Cardinals ran 63 snaps at a 59% dropback rate against Cowboys’s 64 at 73%. Red-zone trips: Cardinals 4, Cowboys 3.
Cardinals won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.11 expected points added per play vs -0.11.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
ARI's play-action rate, 54.1%, was the highest of the 28 team-games charted in week 9 — 9.9 points clear of the next team along.
37 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.8 points. · +2.7σ from their own normal
DAL's blitz rate sent, 51.4%, was the highest of the 28 team-games charted in week 9 — 1.4 points clear of the next team along.
37 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.1 points. · +2.0σ from their own normal
DAL's early-down pass rate, 69.4%, is past their previous high of 62.3% in week 3 — the highest of their 9 charted games through week 9.
49 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.3 points. · +2.0σ from their own normal
DAL's sack or hit rate, 29.7%, is past their previous high of 23.6% in week 5 — the highest of their 9 charted games through week 9.
37 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.7 points. · +1.7σ from their own normal
ARI's early-down pass rate, 51.0%, is past their previous low of 56.3% in week 1 — the lowest of their 8 charted games through week 9.
49 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.9 points. · −1.6σ from their own normal
DAL's play-action rate, 17.0%, is past their previous low of 21.2% in week 7 — the lowest of their 9 charted games through week 9.
47 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.3 points. · −1.4σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -14 pts to 18 pts
Over Expected room →Cardinals7.5 ptsinside their normal wobble · +3.7 vs their 3.7 pts, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (+0.68× that swing) · 63 snaps
Cowboys0.7 ptsright on their number · +1.6 vs their -0.9 pts, and they swing ±4.8 week to week (+0.34× that swing) · 64 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 35% to 92%
Tendencies room →Cardinals51.0%leaned — ran early · −15.5 vs their 66.5%, and they swing ±9.9 week to week (−1.56× that swing) · 49 early downs
Cowboys69.4%leaned — passed early · +14.2 vs their 55.2%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (+1.96× that swing) · 49 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 58%
Tendencies room →Cardinals54.1%off script — faked the run · +28.7 vs their 25.3%, and they swing ±10.8 week to week (+2.66× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Cowboys17.0%leaned — dropped back clean · −10.5 vs their 27.5%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (−1.43× that swing) · 47 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 3% to 102%
Fourth Down room →Cardinals—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 50.0%.
Cowboys—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 52.9%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 58%
Tendencies room →Cardinals34.0%leaned — sent pressure · +9.5 vs their 24.5%, and they swing ±9.2 week to week (+1.03× that swing) · 47 dropbacks
Cowboys51.4%leaned — sent pressure · +24.1 vs their 27.2%, and they swing ±12.1 week to week (+1.99× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 36%
Tendencies room →Cardinals19.1%leaned — got home · +7.8 vs their 11.4%, and they swing ±5.0 week to week (+1.56× that swing) · 47 dropbacks
Cowboys29.7%leaned — got home · +13.3 vs their 16.5%, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (+1.73× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
ARI's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 54.1%, 28.7 points above their season mean of 25.3% and 2.7 times their own 10.8-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Arizona Cardinals
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Dallas Cowboys
49 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · ARI
21/31, 261 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
7.0 expected points added · +7.4% completion over expected
Passing · DAL
24/39, 250 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
-4.5 expected points added · -0.5% completion over expected
Receiving · ARI
7/10 for 96 yds, 1 TD
34% of team targets · 7.9 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Ryan Flournoy banked 4.2 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby BrissettQB · Starter QB | 24.8 | +2.7 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 21/31, 261 yd, 2 TD · 5 car, 4 yd, 1 TD |
| Marvin Harrison Jr.WR · Alpha Receiver | 22.6 | +2.9 | 72% | 81% | 34% | 43% | 7/10, 96 yd, 1 TD |
| Trey McBrideTE · Alpha Receiver | 16.5 | −4.4 | 88% | 95% | 31% | 36% | 5/9, 55 yd, 1 TD |
| CeeDee LambWR · Alpha Receiver | 15.5 | −6.6 | 88% | 92% | 33% | 52% | 7/12, 85 yd |
| Dak PrescottQB · Starter QB | 15.4 | −6.5 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 24/39, 250 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 4 car, 34 yd |
| George PickensWR · Alpha Receiver | 13.9 | −0.3 | 91% | 92% | 25% | 26% | 6/9, 79 yd |
| Ryan FlournoyWR · Rotational Receiver | 9.2 | +4.2 | 67% | 65% | 6% | 3% | 2/2, 12 yd, 1 TD |
| Michael WilsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 9.1 | +1.6 | 72% | 76% | 14% | 20% | 3/4, 61 yd |
| Emari DemercadoRB · Committee Back | 8.8 | −0.1 | 40% | 32% | 3% | 0% | 14 car, 79 yd · 1/1, -1 yd |
| Jake FergusonTE · Featured Receiver | 8.0 | −7.8 | 90% | 94% | 19% | 11% | 5/7, 50 yd |
| Javonte WilliamsRB · Bell Cow Back | 7.3 | −3.5 | 87% | 85% | 3% | 0% | 15 car, 83 yd · 1/1, 0 yd |
| Bam KnightRB | 6.7 | −6.1 | — | — | — | — | No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash. |
| Elijah HigginsTE · Rotational Receiver | 6.0 | +1.7 | 40% | 38% | 10% | 2% | 3/3, 30 yd |
| KaVontae TurpinWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.3 | −1.9 | 19% | 21% | 8% | 4% | 1 car, 3 yd · 2/3, 10 yd |
| Luke SchoonmakerTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.4 | −0.9 | 19% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 1/2, 14 yd |
| Greg DortchWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.9 | +0.1 | 21% | 30% | 0% | — | 1 car, 9 yd |
| Malik DavisRB | 0.3 | −0.1 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Simi FehokoWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Hunter LuepkeRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Brevyn Spann-FordTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 13% | 6% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Princeton FantTE | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Cowboys attack right, the Cardinals attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(4:04) 39-P.O'Donnell punt is BLOCKED by 54-S.Williams, Center-46-A.Brewer, RECOVERED by DAL-94-M.Kneeland at ARI -8. TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 4:04 · Cardinals · 4th & 9 at ARI 36 · gained nothing · -6.12 EP · −16.0% win probability
159 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 171 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 159 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 166. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
7 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was DAL moving 78 yards from the DAL 22 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DAL attacks right, ARI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
171 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
171 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Cardinals3
Cowboys0Cardinals9Cowboys0Cardinals10Cowboys0Cardinals10Cowboys6Cardinals10Cowboys7Cardinals16Cowboys7Cardinals17Cowboys7Cardinals23Cowboys7Cardinals24Cowboys7Cardinals24Cowboys10Cardinals27Cowboys10Cardinals27Cowboys16Cardinals27Cowboys17Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Cardinals at Cowboys, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | 21/31 | 261 | 2 | 0 | 5 | +7.0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emari Demercado | 14 | 79 | 5.6 | 0 | +0.3 |
| Bam Knight | 9 | 27 | 3.0 | 0 | −1.1 |
| Greg Dortch |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | 7 | 10 | 96 | 1 | 34% | +7.9 |
| Michael Wilson | 3 | 4 | 61 | 0 | 14% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denzel Burke | 6 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Mack Wilson | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Budda Baker |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 24/39 | 250 | 1 | 1 | 5 | −4.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2025_09_ARI_DAL
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Cowboys closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 53.5; the game landed 44 — under by 9.5.
Conditions and crew
| 1 |
| 9 |
| 9.0 |
| 0 |
| +0.9 |
| Jacoby Brissett | 5 | 4 | 0.8 | 1 | +0.1 |
| +3.9 |
| Trey McBride | 5 | 9 | 55 | 1 | 31% | +2.3 |
| Elijah Higgins | 3 | 3 | 30 | 0 | 10% | +1.8 |
| Bam Knight | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 | 7% | +1.9 |
| Emari Demercado | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 3% | −0.9 |
| 3 |
| 4 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Akeem Davis-Gaither | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Will Johnson | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jalen Thompson | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Garrett Williams | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Max Melton | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Walter Nolen | 3 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Cody Simon | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Javonte Williams | 15 | 83 | 5.5 | 0 | +1.9 |
| Dak Prescott | 4 | 34 | 8.5 | 0 | +1.8 |
| KaVontae Turpin | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | −0.1 |
| Malik Davis | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | −0.2 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CeeDee Lamb | 7 | 12 | 85 | 0 | 33% | +0.2 |
| George Pickens | 6 | 9 | 79 | 0 | 25% | +3.3 |
| Jake Ferguson | 5 | 7 | 50 | 0 | 19% | −3.4 |
| Luke Schoonmaker | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 6% | +0.8 |
| Ryan Flournoy | 2 | 2 | 12 | 1 | 6% | +2.5 |
| KaVontae Turpin | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 8% | −1.9 |
| Javonte Williams | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −3.8 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DaRon Bland | 6 | 8 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Markquese Bell | 2 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Shemar James | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jadeveon Clowney | 3 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Kenny Clark | 4 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kenneth Murray, Jr. | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Juanyeh Thomas | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Osa Odighizuwa | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Donovan Ezeiruaku | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| James Houston | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
