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Arizona Cardinals 27, Cowboys 17 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 4:04, 4th and 9 — 13.7 win-probability points to the Cowboys on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 4:04 · 4th and 9
Unnamed on the sheet
Cowboys
(4:04) 39-P.O'Donnell punt is BLOCKED by 54-S.Williams, Center-46-A.Brewer, RECOVERED by DAL-94-M.Kneeland at ARI -8. TOUCHDOWN.
Dome
Cowboys closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Arizona Cardinals 27–17. Biggest swing: Q2 4:04, Cowboys +13.7% win probability on one snap.
13.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Dak PrescottCardinalsQ1 10:37(10:37) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott sacked at ARI 11 for -7 yards (10-J.Sweat).
8.3pts
Marvin Harrison Jr.CardinalsQ1 0:29(:29) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass deep middle to 18-M.Harrison to DAL 31 for 20 yards (26-D.Bland; 14-M.Bell) [97-O.Odighizuwa].
9.5pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Cardinals won this one — no giveaways, against Cowboys at 3 giveaways.
Cardinalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Cardinals won this one — 3 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Cowboys at 1 touchdown on 3 trips.
Cardinalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Cardinals won this one — +0.18 expected points per dropback, against Cowboys at -0.19 expected points per dropback.
Cardinalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Cardinals won this one — +0.11 expected points per snap, against Cowboys at -0.11 expected points per snap.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 3.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 9 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Cardinals.
MarketModelmodel higher on Cowboyshigher on Cardinals161 of 171 plays carry both curves
(4:04) 39-P.O'Donnell punt is BLOCKED by 54-S.Williams, Center-46-A.Brewer, RECOVERED by DAL-94-M.Kneeland at ARI -8. TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +13.7 for CowboysExpected points +6.12 for CowboysThe model had Cardinals 5 points higher than the market did.play 64
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 4:04ARI +14% win prob(4:04) 39-P.O'Donnell punt is BLOCKED by 54-S.Williams, Center-46-A.Brewer, RECOVERED by DAL-94-M.Kneeland at ARI -8. TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 0:29DAL +9% win prob(:29) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass deep middle to 18-M.Harrison to DAL 31 for 20 yards (26-D.Bland; 14-M.Bell) [97-O.Odighizuwa].
1st · 10:37ARI +8% win prob(10:37) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott sacked at ARI 11 for -7 yards (10-J.Sweat).
3rd · 14:53DAL +8% win prob(14:53) 7-J.Brissett pass deep middle to 14-Mi.Wilson pushed ob at DAL 24 for 50 yards (26-D.Bland).
1st · 1:18ARI +8% win prob(1:18) 68-K.Beachum reported in as eligible. 7-J.Brissett sacked at ARI 49 for -10 yards (41-D.Ezeiruaku).
1st · 7:36DAL +7% win prob(7:36) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete deep left to 85-T.McBride [53-J.Houston]. PENALTY on DAL-14-M.Bell, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at 50 - No Play.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Chad Ryland's 48-yard field goal with 3:42 left in the 1st put Arizona Cardinals ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Lead
1st3:42Chad Ryland·48-yd field goal48-yard field goalholder P.O'Donnell · snap A.BrewerLead never changed again+33–0
3rd7:18Brandon Aubrey·26-yd field goal26-yard field goalholder B.Anger · snap T.Sieg+324–10
3rd2:35Chad Ryland·34-yd field goal34-yard field goalholder P.O'Donnell · snap A.Brewer+327–10
4th10:56Ryan Flournoy·5-yd TD catch5-yard touchdown catchfrom Dak Prescottfrom Dak Prescott+727–17
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Cardinalscategory by categoryCowboys
Cardinals6–0Cowboys
341Total yards333
5.4Yards per play5.2
48%Success rate44%
54%Third-down rate42%
3Red-zone touchdowns1
6Explosive plays6
22First downs22
5Sacks taken5
0Turnovers3
The read
Cardinals ahead 6–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.11Cardinals: +0.11 expected points added per play
−0.11Cowboys: −0.11 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.18Cardinals: +0.18 expected points added per play
−0.19Cowboys: −0.19 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.02Cardinals: +0.02 expected points added per play
+0.10Cowboys: +0.10 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Cardinals ran 63 snaps at a 59% dropback rate against Cowboys’s 64 at 73%. Red-zone trips: Cardinals 4, Cowboys 3.
NoteCardinals won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.11 expected points added per play vs -0.11.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
ARI's play-action rate, 54.1%, was the highest of the 28 team-games charted in week 9 — 9.9 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of 38.3% in week 6.
2.7 times their own weekly swing above their number.
37 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.8 points.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
DAL's blitz rate sent, 51.4%, was the highest of the 28 team-games charted in week 9 — 1.4 points clear of the next team along.
A 2.0-swing turn from week 8.
37 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.1 points.
DAL's play-action rate, 17.0%, is past their previous low of 21.2% in week 7 — the lowest of their 9 charted games through week 9.
47 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.3 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -14 pts to 18 pts
leaned — got home · +7.8 vs their 11.4%, and they swing ±5.0 week to week (+1.56× that swing) · 47 dropbacks
Cowboys29.7%
leaned — got home · +13.3 vs their 16.5%, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (+1.73× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
NoteARI's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 54.1%, 28.7 points above their season mean of 25.3% and 2.7 times their own 10.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Arizona Cardinals
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 3 never used
—Jonah WilliamsOL · Every snap100%67 snaps
70Paris Johnson Jr.T · Every snap100%67 snaps
63Evan BrownG · Every snap100%67 snaps
72Hjalte FroholdtC · Every snap100%67 snaps
7Jacoby BrissettQB · Every snap100%67 snaps
76Will HernandezG · Every snap100%67 snaps
85Trey McBrideTE · Full-time88%59 snaps
14Michael WilsonWR · Heavy rotation72%48 snaps
18Marvin Harrison Jr.WR · Heavy rotation72%48 snaps
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Cowboys attack right, the Cardinals attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Cardinals←Cowboys→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
P.O'Donnell punt−16% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(4:04) 39-P.O'Donnell punt is BLOCKED by 54-S.Williams, Center-46-A.Brewer, RECOVERED by DAL-94-M.Kneeland at ARI -8. TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 4:04 · Cardinals · 4th & 9 at ARI 36 · gained nothing · -6.12 EP · −16.0% win probability
159 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 171 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 159 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 166. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was DAL moving 78 yards from the DAL 22 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DAL attacks right, ARI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
171 of 171 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
171
EPA per play
-0.03
Success rate
46%
Yards
673
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Cowboys1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR49-0.1376%
Cardinals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR28+0.3075%
Cowboys1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11-0.0955%
Cardinals1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR10+0.0460%
Cardinals1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6-0.2633%
Cardinals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6+0.0950%
Cardinals1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR5-0.1920%
Cardinals1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Cowboys2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Cardinals0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
Cowboys1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Cowboys0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Cardinals0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Cardinals1 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Cardinals1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
171 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
171 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
Turnover on downs11 plays, from the Cowboys 34 to the Cardinals 4
Cardinals3Cowboys0
Field goal16 plays, from the Cardinals 11 to the Cowboys 29
Punt7 plays, from the Cowboys 23 to the Cowboys 26
The period ended4 plays, from the Cowboys 47 to the Cowboys 41
2nd quarter49 plays
Cardinals9Cowboys0
Cardinals10Cowboys0
Touchdown6 plays, from the Cowboys 31 to the Cowboys 4
Fumble lost13 plays, from the Cowboys 26 to the Cardinals 32
Cardinals10Cowboys6
Touchdown6 plays, from the Cardinals 24 to the Cardinals 36
Cardinals10Cowboys7
Cardinals16Cowboys7
Cardinals17Cowboys7
Touchdown16 plays, from the Cardinals 26 to the Cowboys 1
No good6 plays, from the Cowboys 38 to midfield
3rd quarter38 plays
Cardinals23Cowboys7
Cardinals24Cowboys7
Touchdown6 plays, from the Cardinals 26 to the Cowboys 7
Cardinals24Cowboys10
Field goal13 plays, from the Cowboys 27 to the Cardinals 5
Cardinals27Cowboys10
Field goal10 plays, from the Cardinals 39 to the Cowboys 16
The period ended9 plays, from the Cowboys 27 to the Cardinals 27
4th quarter45 plays
Turnover on downs1 play
Punt4 plays, from the Cardinals 22 to the Cardinals 29
Cardinals27Cowboys16
Cardinals27Cowboys17
Touchdown8 plays, from the Cowboys 22 to the Cardinals 5
Punt8 plays, from the Cardinals 33 to the Cardinals 43
Fumble lost8 plays, from the Cowboys 37 to the Cardinals 35
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Cardinals 37 to the Cowboys 36
Intercepted4 plays
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Cowboys -3.5
Closing total
53.5
Cardinals moneyline
+145
Cowboys moneyline
-175
Cowboys closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 53.5; the game landed 44 — under by 9.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
AT&T Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · matrixturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Adrian Hill
Rest
Cardinals 15 days · Cowboys 8 days
Coaches
Jonathan Gannon vs Brian Schottenheimer
1st · 13:41
DAL +7% win prob
(13:41) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep left to 3-G.Pickens to ARI 33 for 16 yards (16-M.Melton).
2nd · 6:40ARI +7% win prob(6:40) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 87-J.Ferguson to ARI 32 for 10 yards (2-Ma.Wilson). FUMBLES (2-Ma.Wilson), touched at ARI 26, RECOVERED by ARI-3-B.Baker at ARI 23. 3-B.Baker to ARI 24 for 1 yard (19-R.Flournoy; 40-H.Luepke).
